印度尼西亚发生严重干旱，正在拖慢一种制造电动汽车电池所需关键材料的产出，给中国庞大的电动汽车供应链带来风险。
A severe drought in Indonesia is slowing output of a crucial material used to manufacture electric vehicle batteries, creating risks across China’s vast electric car supply chain.
印度尼西亚是全球电动汽车供应链的关键一环。这个东南亚国家是世界上最大的镍生产中心，镍是一种金属，可转化为锂离子电池使用的组件。
Indonesia is a vital link in the global electric car supply chain. The Southeast Asian nation is the world’s biggest production hub for nickel, a metal that is converted into a component used in lithium-ion batteries.
但该国降雨量大幅下降，导致当地镍冶炼厂减产，市场分析机构 CRU Group 指出，此举可能“给电池材料价值链……增加不确定性”。
But a sharp drop in rainfall in the country is causing local nickel refineries to reduce output, a move that could “add uncertainty … across the battery materials value chain”, according to market analysis firm CRU Group.
这些冶炼厂需要大量水，通过一种称为高压酸浸的工艺提取镍。随着设施在干旱中面临短缺，悉尼镍业公司在中苏拉威西省运营的一座旗舰工厂已宣布大幅削减产量。
The refineries require huge volumes of water to extract nickel through a process known as high-pressure acid leaching. With facilities now facing shortages amid the drought, one flagship operation in Central Sulawesi province run by Sydney-based Nickel Industries has already announced a major cutback.
据该公司称，这座酸浸设施目前以 30% 产能运行，低于之前的 50%。CRU Group 预计整个行业正在发生类似的削减，并将持续到本月。
The acid-leaching facility is now running at 30 per cent capacity, down from 50 per cent previously, according to the company. CRU Group expects similar cutbacks to be occurring across the industry – and to continue through this month.
该公司在 10 月的一份报告中说：“合理预期，所有其他[酸浸]业务——面临类似的水资源短缺，且往往共享基础设施——正在考虑实施类似规模的临时减产。”
“It is reasonable to expect that all other [acid-leaching] operations – facing similar water shortages and often sharing infrastructure with one another – are considering temporary output cuts of a similar scale,” the firm said in an October report.
CRU Group 预测，冶炼厂用于生产混合氢氧化物沉淀物——一种用于关键电池组件的中间产品——的镍产量将在下半年降至约 37 万吨，低于此前预期的 40 万吨。
CRU Group predicts that the refineries’ output of nickel for mixed hydroxide precipitate – an intermediate product used in a key battery component – will fall to about 370,000 tonnes in the second half of the year, down from the 400,000 tonnes previously expected.
据标普全球称，夏季形成的强厄尔尼诺天气模式正在加剧印度尼西亚的干旱，该国占全球镍产量的一半以上。
A powerful El Nino weather pattern that took hold during the summer is fanning the drought in Indonesia, which accounts for well over half of global nickel production, according to S&P Global.
据美国智库高级防务研究中心估计，印度尼西亚约四分之三的镍精炼行业拥有中国投资。
About three-quarters of Indonesia’s nickel refining industry has Chinese investment, according to an estimate by the US-based Centre for Advanced Defence Studies.
新加坡伊斯亚·尤索夫伊萨研究所印尼研究项目联合协调员西瓦格·达尔马·内加拉表示：“中国投资者在印度尼西亚的镍高压酸浸行业有重大敞口。”
“Chinese investors have significant exposure to Indonesia’s nickel high-pressure acid-leach industry,” said Siwage Dharma Negara, co-coordinator of the Indonesia Studies Programme at the ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore.
他预测，作为镍供应链一部分的中国电动汽车电池制造商也将受到冲击。根据国际能源署数据，中国约占全球电动汽车电池芯产量的80%。
Chinese electric vehicle battery makers would also take a hit as part of the nickel supply chain, he forecast. China accounts for roughly 80 per cent of the world’s EV battery cell production, according to the International Energy Agency.
内加拉说，干旱“导致中国在印尼的镍业投资者生产成本增加、盈利能力下降”。
The drought had “caused extra production costs and reduced profitability” among Chinese nickel investors in Indonesia, Negara said.
据新加坡南洋理工大学拉惹勒南国际问题研究院8月的一份报告，中国在高压酸浸精炼厂的投资者已面临供应限制，且因环保和安全法规收紧而面临更大的停工风险。
Chinese investors in high-pressure acid-leaching refineries already faced supply constraints and a greater risk of shutdowns amid tightening environmental and safety regulations, according to an August report by the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore.
内加拉认为，鉴于印尼对中国电池产业的重要性，这些投资者很可能会留在印尼，但可能会推迟较新项目的扩建，并提高现有项目的效率。
Those investors will probably stay in Indonesia given its importance to China’s battery industry, but may delay expansions of newer projects and improve the efficiency of existing ones, according to Negara.