
即将落幕,在本期《Mother Jones Podcast》特别的“选举前夜”节目中,David Corn 与 Garrison Hayes 剖析了美国投票前那狂乱的最后时刻。
It’s almost over, and on this special Election Eve edition of , David Corn and Garrison Hayes deconstruct the manic final moments before America votes.
最大的最后时刻惊喜来自密歇根州的“第十一小时重磅炸弹”。在初选中落败的民主党候选人 Haley Stevens 于周日撤回对民主党参议院候选人 Abdul El-Sayed 的支持,转而背书共和党提名人 Mike Rogers,此举在政坛引发震动,招致民主党领导层的猛烈谴责,却赢得了 Donald Trump 的赞誉。
The big last-minute surprise was the 11th-hour bombshell out of Michigan. Defeated Democratic primary contender Haley Stevens sent shockwaves through the political world on Sunday when she rescinded her support for Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed and endorsed Republican nominee Mike Rogers—a move that drew fierce condemnation from Democratic leadership and praise from Donald Trump.
更为离奇的是,Stevens 无法清楚解释这一决定的理由。她仅声称自己因 El-Sayed 而感到“受伤”。宛如一出肥皂剧可能决定参议院的控制权。“美国民主可能取决于谁赢得参议院,”David 指出,“而谁赢得参议院可能取决于这场小小的个人恩怨。”Garrison 强调了其中辛酸的讽刺:Stevens 多年来苦心经营“奥巴马身边的黑人选民呢喃者”形象,却在底特律的一座黑人教堂里推出她对共和党人的背书,让当地黑人选民感到深深的措手不及与背叛。
What was especially odd was that Stevens could not clearly explain her rationale for this decision. But she claimed she felt “hurt” by El-Sayed. It was like a soap opera might determine control of the Senate. “American democracy may hinge on who wins the Senate,” David observes, “and who wins the Senate may hinge on this little personal vendetta.”Garrison highlights the bitter irony of Stevens—who spent years cultivating a reputation as an “Obama-adjacent Black voter whisperer”—rolling out her GOP endorsement inside a Detroit Black church, leaving local Black voters feeling deeply blindsided and betrayed.
随后,两位主持人探讨了大选末期民调的局限性,以及 Trump 政府在加利福尼亚州和阿拉斯加州就选票提前发起的法律战。Garrison 指出:“如果要以 Trump 政府在选票真正计数前处理选举的方式来衡量信心,我看不出他们表现出多少信心。”这种早期的法律布局,极可能是战后选举法律大战的前奏。
From there, the hosts examine the limits of late-stage polling and the preemptive legal battles being waged by the Trump administration over ballots in California and Alaska. Garrison points out, “If confidence is to be measured by the way the Trump administration has been handling elections before votes have even really been counted, I don’t know if they’re showing very much confidence.”The early legal maneuvering may well be a prelude to the post-election fights to come.
接下来,记者诺亚·拉纳德从纽约州北部的一辆汽车中连线,他在该地跟踪报道了副总统JD·万斯为共和党候选人安东尼·康斯坦蒂诺举办的临时造势集会。康斯坦蒂诺是一位贴纸磁贴大亨转型参选者,已向这场众议院竞选投入了1700万美元个人财富。共和党为何要派遣副总统前往一个深红选区?该选区在特朗普以21个百分点的优势获胜。
Next, reporter Noah Lanard calls in from a car in upstate New York after trailing Vice President JD Vance’s last-minute rally for GOP sticker-magnate-turned-candidate Anthony Constantino, who has dumped $17 million of his own fortune into a House race. Why is the GOP dispatching the veep to a deep-red district that Trump carried by 21 points?
正如诺亚所言:“如果一年前有人告诉我,大选前夜我会在这里,我大概会喷一口水,马上就说,好吧,共和党出大事了。”诺亚描述了一个超现实的场景:康斯坦蒂诺抨击记者不是“假新闻”,而是“邪恶新闻”,应该被“删除”,随后骑着电动代步车,陪同一位老兵穿过飞机库离去。
As Noah says,”If you told me a year ago this is where I would be on election eve, I would kind of do a spit take and immediately say, okay, something has gone horribly wrong for Republicans.”Noah describes the surreal scene of Constantino lambasting reporters as not the “fake news” but as the “evil news” who should be “deleted,” before riding off on a mobility scooter alongside an elderly veteran across an airplane hangar.
在结束前,大卫和加里森梳理了大选之夜值得关注的关键竞选,包括肯塔基州第六国会选区的一场风向标众议院角逐,该选区投票将于美国东部时间下午6点结束,以及宾夕法尼亚州、堪萨斯州、佐治亚州和田纳西州的高风险对决。
Beforeg off, David and Garrison examine key races to watch on election night, including a bellwether House contest in Kentucky’s 6th congressional district, where polls will close at 6:00 p.m. ET, as well as high-stakes showdowns in Pennsylvania, Kansas, Georgia, and Tennessee.
我们将推出大选之夜特别节目,实时解读计票结果。在此之前,正如大卫所指出的:“每当美国选民有机会评判特朗普的执政表现……他们都想把这个蠢货赶下台。”中期选举将显示这一模式是否延续。大卫·科恩:美国民主的未来,会由一个输不起的人来决定吗?
will be back for an Election Night special to break down the returns in real time. Until then, as David notes, “Every time American voters have had a chance to judge Trump’s performance in office… they’ve wanted to throw the bum out.”The midterms will show if that pattern holds. David Corn: Will the future of American democracy be decided by one sore loser?
加里森·海耶斯:在中期选举的最后时刻,你们应该关注哪些关键竞选?
Garrison Hayes: And what are the key races that you should be watching here in the final moments of these midterms?
大卫·科恩:这里是《Mother Jones》播客节目。我是大卫·科恩。
DC: This isfrom .
加里森·海耶斯:我是加里森·海耶斯。欢迎回到节目。大卫,我们可以说真的是进入了最后倒计时,距离出结果只剩最后一两天。显然,一些结果会立即出来,一些未来几天才会出来,但我们已经非常、非常接近了。大卫·科恩:真是一段漫长而离奇的旅程。
I’m David Corn. GH: And I’m Garrison Hayes. Welcome back to the show. We are in quite literally, David, the final countdown, the last night or two, however, before we get results. Obviously, some results will come in immediately, some will come in over the next few days, but we are so, so close. DC: What a long, strange trip it’s been.
GH:好吧,好吧,这次行程其实变得更离谱了。这就是大家都在议论的事。就发生在昨天,说海莉·史蒂文斯(Haley Stevens)制造了新闻大概是最无聊的说法,但她肯定上了热搜。大家都在谈论这事。我不确定还有多少可聊的,但大卫,给我们讲讲密歇根州到底发生了什么。
GH: Well, okay, this trip actually just got stranger. It’s the thing that everyone is talking about. It happened for us just yesterday, when Haley Stevens made news is probably the most boring way to put it, but she’s definitely in the algorithm. Everyone’s talking about it. I’m not sure if there’s much more to talk about, but David, bring us up to speed on what in the world happened in Michigan.
DC:海莉·史蒂文斯,你可能记得,她输了。她在密歇根州联邦参议员民主党初选中败给了阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德(Abdul El-Sayed),而迈克·罗杰斯(Mike Rogers)是参选的共和党前众议员。初选期间关系很紧张。她得到美国以色列公共事务委员会(AIPAC)支持,而他当然是向以色列及现以色列政府提供美国援助的大批评者。
DC: Well, Haley Stevens, you might recall, lost. She lost the Democratic primary to Abdul El-Sayed to run for U.S. Senate in Michigan, and Mike Rogers is the Republican former congressman who’s running. And things were testy during the primary. She was supported by AIPAC, and he, of course, is a big critic of supplying U.S. aid to Israel and to the current Israeli government.
但尽管如此,她承诺背书支持他,并且一直兑现,尽管竞选过程起伏不断,直到上周末。她原本预计会出席民主党候选人的团结集会,她的团队以为她会去,结果她却和迈克·罗杰斯一起去教堂,并背书支持这位共和党候选人。
But nevertheless, she promised to endorse him and to back him, and she has, despite all the ups and downs of the campaign, until this past weekend. She was expected to be at a unity rally for Democratic candidates, and her staff thought she’d be there, but instead, she went to church with Mike Rogers and endorsed the Republican candidate.
这位民主党人在将决定哪党控制联邦参议院的关键竞选中背书了共和党候选人。这在很大程度上似乎带有强烈的个人色彩。她感到遭到埃尔-赛义德冷遇,后者一度不愿让她协助竞选,而她的未婚夫与AIPAC有联系,据多方报道,他过度介入了她的竞选和政治决策。
This Democrat endorsed the Republican candidate in one of the pivotal races that will decide which party gets to control the U.S. Senate. And there seemed to be a very personal side to this in a lot of ways. She felt rebuffed from El-Sayed, who at one point didn’t want her to campaign with him, and her fiancé has connections to AIPAC, and according to many stories, he’s gotten way too involved in her campaign and into her political decision-making.
所以加里森,我们看到的不仅是政治事态发展,简直是一出该死的肥皂剧。
So what we’ve seen here, Garrison, is not just a political development. It’s been a goddamn soap opera.
GH:这有点像肥皂剧。对我来说真正有意思的是,我们看到几个不同派别几乎立刻做出了反应,我想让我们深入探讨一下这些反应。我们稍后得听一段黑利的讲话,但至少我想稍微谈一谈,戴维,谈谈民主党人——跨越民主党所代表的这个大帐篷式政党政治光谱的民主党人——他们是如何回应这件事的?
GH: It is a bit of a soap opera. The thing that’s really been interesting to me is kind of the immediate response that we’ve seen from a few different factions, and I want us to dig into those. We’ll have to listen to a little bit of Haley in a moment, but I want to talk at least a little bit, David, about the way Democrats across the kind of big-tent party political spectrum that Democrats represent, how are they responding to this?
我跟你说,我看到查克·舒默的一份声明,在某种程度上,尽管阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德那一阵营及其版本的民主党政治与查克·舒默这个品牌之间一直有些紧张,两者之间有些隔阂,但他们走到了一起,他把这件事称为——我记不清确切的措辞了,但他谴责了黑利·史蒂文斯的这一举动。
I’ll tell you, I saw a statement from Chuck Schumer that, in some ways, even though there’s been a bit of tension between the Abdul El-Sayed kind of camp and version of Democratic politics and the Chuck Schumer, you know, brand, there’s been a bit of a gap between the two, but they came together, and he called this—I can’t exact remember the exact language, but he condemned Haley Stevens for her move.
DC:嗯,我不知道他公开说了什么,但我很确定我知道他私下说了什么,因为在这个阶段,初选一旦结束,他和 other 民主党人唯一在乎的就是赢得多数席位。如果他们需要埃尔-赛义德来帮他们拿到多数席位,他们就会接受。而且他们一直支持他。卡玛拉·哈里斯出来和他一起竞选,巴拉克·奥巴马也在助选。所以整个党都站在他身后。
DC: Well, I don’t know what he said publicly, but I’m pretty sure I know what he said privately, because all he and the other Democrats care about at this stage, once primaries are done, is winning the majority. And if they need El-Sayed to give them the majority, they’ll take it. And they’ve been supportive of him. Kamala Harris came out and campaigned with him, Barack Obama’s campaigning. So the whole party’s behind this.
他们基本上把黑利·史蒂文斯踢出了党。密歇根民主党说,再见,走好,你不是我们的人,撕掉你的党证,你的民主党党证。而且非常、非常团结,从某种意义上说,民主党那边没有人为这件事辩护,而唐纳德·特朗普和共和党人则拥抱她、感谢她。
And they basically tossed Haley Stevens out of the party. The Michigan Democratic Party said, so long, goodbye, you’re not one of us, rip up your card, your Democratic Party card. And it’s been very, very, you know, unified in that sense that nobody out there on the Democratic side is defending this, while Donald Trump and Republicans are embracing her and thanking her.
但,你知道,这一路上真的非常怪异离奇。她前几天在安德森·库珀的节目上试图解释,却说不清。库珀一直追问她,在她宣布支持埃尔-赛义德前的几个小时里到底发生了什么变化,她曾告诉别人她会继续支持埃尔-赛义德。于是我们来看看她在CNN安德森·库珀节目中的表现——我觉得这是最恰当的说法。
But, you know, it’s just been so weird and bizarre this whole way. And she went on Anderson Cooper the other night and tried to explain this and really couldn’t. He kept asking her what had changed since hours before she announced this endorsement, she had told others that she was gonna stick with El-Sayed. So let’s look at her performance—I think that’s the best way to put it—with Anderson Cooper on CNN.
DC:她感到受伤。我们在整段采访里看到海莉·斯蒂文斯,她一直被库珀追问,在她说要坚持支持埃尔-赛义德到她宣布支持迈克·罗杰斯的这8到10个小时之间到底发生了什么变化,她却解释不出。她本可以说,我感到受伤,我在做我该做的事,我是个诚实的人。还有一些,你知道的——我们总有一天会弄清楚的,背后有些相当离奇的因素。
DC: She felt hurt. You know, we just saw Haley Stevens throughout that whole interview with Anderson Cooper. He kept asking her to explain what had changed in the 8, 10 hours between when she said she was sticking with El-Sayed and when she announced she was endorsing Mike Rogers, and she couldn’t explain it. She could say, I felt hurt, I’m doing what I’m doing, I’m an honest person. And there’s something, you know—we’ll get the story one day, but something rather bizarre behind all this.
对我而言,大局是,从她做出这一决定的动机回溯,美国民主可能取决于参议院的胜负,而参议院的胜负又可能取决于这场个人恩怨或其他因素。我们并不确切知道其影响会如何。大多数选区的大多数选民现在已经决定了立场,提前投票已经很多。
And to me, the big picture is, you know, moving back from whatever motivated her to do this, is American democracy may hinge on who wins the Senate, and who wins the Senate may hinge on this little personal vendetta or whatever it might be. And we don’t know exactly what the impact’s gonna be. Most voters in most races have made up their minds by now. There’s been a lot of early voting.
我只是想问,加里森,是否有一些密歇根的民主党或独立选民因为各种原因对埃尔-赛义德感到犹豫,而她现在是否给了他们投罗杰斯或根本不投票的许可,让他们不必因犹豫而感到内疚?
I just wonder, Garrison, if there are some Democratic voters or independent voters in Michigan who have felt reluctant to vote for El-Sayed for all sorts of reasons, and now has she given them permission either to vote for Rogers or just not vote at all and not feel bad about feeling reluctant?
GH:你知道,我在密歇根州住了大约三年,密歇根州的选民知道他们很重要。那是我早在2016年、2017年就开始真正察觉到的事情之一。人们真的非常清楚他们有发言权,他们的选票真的非常重要。所以到了选举的这个阶段,我认为当然会有人被海莉·史蒂文斯说服。但我认为这只是极少数人。
GH: You know, I lived in Michigan for about three years, and Michigan voters know that they are important. That was one of the first things that I kind of really started to pick up on back in 2016, 2017. People really are very aware that they have a say, that their vote really, really matters. And so by this point in the election, I think certainly someone will be swayed by Haley Stevens. I think that is a very small number of people.
我发现这一切中最有趣的是,海莉·史蒂文斯把自己定位为一个几乎是密歇根州黑人选民“耳语者”的人。她让自己处于一种近乎与奥巴马有关联、与黑人社区紧密相连的位置。许多事情都发生在底特律的一座黑人教堂里。因此,她几乎向黑人社区传递了一种真实的联系感。
The thing that I found most interesting in all of this is that Haley Stevens has positioned herself as a person who’s almost a Black voter whisperer in Michigan. She’s kind of positioned herself in proximity, some Obama adjacency in proximity to the Black community. Much of this went down in a Black church in Detroit. And so there’s this real kind of connection that she has almost telegraphed to the Black community.
但当黑人选民在底特律教堂活动结束后立即被问及此事时,许多人感到困惑。在许多方面,我认为这是对本会选择她或埃尔-赛义德的民主党选民的一种背叛。许多人视“让美国再次伟大”议程,特别是迈克·罗杰斯,为一种危险力量。事实上,海莉·史蒂文斯曾称迈克·罗杰斯很危险;他将推进危险的“让美国再次伟大”议程。
But when Black voters were asked about this just immediately following the event at the church in Detroit, many of them were confused. In many ways, this is a betrayal, I think, of Democratic voters who would have chosen her or El-Sayed. Many of them see the MAGA agenda and Mike Rogers specifically as a dangerous force. In fact, Haley Stevens called Mike Rogers dangerous; he would advance the dangerous MAGA agenda.
因此,所有这些实际上都是对她所坚持的立场,甚至是对她声称代表的选民的一种背叛。所以我有兴趣看看这将如何影响她的前景,显然是在民主党领导层中,但我感觉选民们自己对她的这一举动感到非常被背叛。
And so all of this is really a betrayal of what she’s kind of stood up for and even the voters that she’s claimed to represent. And so I am interested in seeing how this will bode for her, obviously among Democratic leadership, but I get the sense that voters themselves feel very betrayed by this move from her.
DC:我要转换话题了,因为直到现在,民主党人对众议院选情感到相当乐观,对参议院选情也是如此。他们现在或许依然乐观。但《纽约时报》和锡耶纳学院最近发布的一项民调显示,民主党在我们关注的所有竞选中基本上都处于领先地位,包括爱荷华州、堪萨斯州、北卡罗来纳州等,在缅因州基本持平,但总体而言处于非常有利的位置。要不是海莉·史蒂文斯那出肥皂剧般的戏剧性闹剧、夸张闹剧出现,我想他们本会对自己感到相当欣慰。
DC: Well, I’m gonna pivot here, because up to this point in time, the Democrats are feeling really good, not just about the House, but about the Senate. And they still may be feeling good. But the recent poll that came out from The New York Times and Siena showed that the Democrats were basically ahead in all the races that we’re watching, in Iowa, Kansas, North Carolina, and so on, close to tied in Maine, but by and large were in a really good position. And they would have been, I think, feeling rather delighted with themselves had this Haley Stevens soap opera drama, melodrama not emerged.
民调数据很强劲,但今年民调还有个非常有趣的现象,加里森,那就是媒体机构在发布这些民调时——我主要指《纽约时报》和《华盛顿邮报》——也一再发出警告、提示、买家自负之类的声明。在发布民调的同时,它们也承认在获取合适样本方面遇到了困难。
So the polls are strong, but there’s something also very interesting about the polls this year, Garrison, and that again and again, media organizations that are putting out these polls—and I’m thinking primarily of The New York Times and The Washington Post—have also put out kind of warnings, caveats, buyers beware. As they’ve released polls, they’ve also said and have admitted they’ve had trouble figuring out how to get the right samples.
这可是民调的核心关键。你必须让民调中的受访群体反映选民群体的真实面貌。所以你要以上一次选举情况为基础,同时也要根据选民透露的谁可能投票、谁不可能投票的信息来确定样本。如果这点搞不对,民调结果可能会大幅偏离。所以它们在说,我们正竭尽全力计算合适的样本,但如果搞错了别怪我们。
Now, this is the whole key to polling. You have to have a group of people in your polls that you think reflects what the electorate is going to be like. So you base it on what happened last time, but also you have to sort of base it on what the voters are telling you about who’s likely to vote and who’s not likely to vote. And if you don’t get that right, your poll can be way off. So they’re out there saying, we’re trying as hard as we can to calculate the right samples, but don’t blame us if we get it wrong.
GH:是啊,确实如此。我的意思是,在特朗普时代,民调一贯低估共和党选民,这也是我认为过去几年里之所以出现那么多让依赖民调判断大势的选民感到震惊的时刻的原因。
GH: Yeah, no, that’s real. I mean, polling has consistently underestimated Republican voters in the Trump era, which has been the reason why you’ve seen so many of these kind of big shock moments, I think, over the last several years for voters who’ve kind of relied on polling to get a vibe.
那么我想问题是,您会如何建议选民?我会说,去投票。您实际上不能——就从这儿说起,对吧?您实际上不能,您知道,依赖民调。民调不投票;人投票,所以去投票。这是我要说的主要事情。
And so I guess the question then is, how would you advise voters? I would say go out and vote. You can’t actually—let’s start there, right? You can’t actually, you know, rely on polls. Polls don’t vote; people vote, so go vote. That’s the main thing that I’d say.
DC:我现在要告诉人们,在接下来的几个小时里,不管多久,别费心关注民调了。我们很快就会知道结果。我从来不是痴迷民调的人。民调可能是对的;也可能是错的。但好消息是,最终我们会得到实际数字。
DC: And I would tell people right now to don’t bother for the next, you know, few hours, whatever, with polls. We’re gonna know soon enough. I’ve never been a big fan of obsessing with polls. They can be right; they can be wrong. But the great thing is eventually we get the actual numbers.
还有一件事我在这最后几个小时里一直在想,加里森,那就是每当美国选民有机会评判特朗普在任期间的表现——不是他作为候选人的表现,而是他在任期间的表现——他们都想把这个混蛋赶下台。如果您看看发生了什么,2016年他赢了,但他是作为候选人参选的。但到了2018年,选民说,我们不喜欢你在干的事。然后在2020年,他们又说,我们不喜欢你应对新冠疫情的方式,我们不喜欢你在干的事,于是他们拒绝了他。
And there’s one thing that I have been thinking about in these final hours, Garrison, and that is every time American voters have had a chance to judge Trump’s performance in office—not his performance as a candidate, but his performance in office—they’ve wanted to throw the bum out. If you look at what happened, in 2016 he won, but he was running as a candidate. But in 2018, voters said, we don’t like what you’re doing. And then in 2020, they also said, we don’t like how you managed COVID, we don’t like what you’re doing, and they’ve rejected him.
2024年,当他重新变回候选人时,他们投了他的票。但现在是2026年,正如他所说,他的执政记录又回到了选票上。他一遍又一遍地说,我在选票上。所以连续两次,他们都对他的表现说不。让我们看看这个选举日会发生什么。
In 2024, when he was back to being a candidate, they voted for him. But now it’s 2026, and his record is back on the ballot, as he says. He’s been saying over and over again, I’m on the ballot. So twice in a row, they’ve said no to his performance. Let’s see what happens on this Election Day.
GH:嗯,您知道,如果要以特朗普政府在选票甚至还没真正开始计数前处理选举的方式来衡量信心,我不知道他们是否表现出了多少信心。当然,我们知道特朗普政府一直在试图搞几件——我在这里姑且称之为“古怪的小把戏”,特别是在阿拉斯加和加利福尼亚州。DC:那是首好歌,对吧?《古怪的小把戏》。
GH: Well, you know, if confidence is to be measured by the way the Trump administration has been handling elections before votes have even really been counted, I don’t know if they’re showing very much confidence. Of course, we know that there are several funky little things, is how I’ll describe them here, that the Trump administration—DC: That’s a good song, right? Funky Little Things.
GH:他们一直在试图搞的那些古怪小把戏,特别是在阿拉斯加和加利福尼亚州。
GH: Funky little things they’ve been trying to do, particularly in Alaska and in California.
现在,大卫,我想听听你的看法,但我先给大家简要梳理一下情况:特朗普政府把这类手段带到了加利福尼亚州和阿拉斯加州,尤其是这两个州。他们试图抢先对阿拉斯加联邦参议员竞选的结果发起挑战,因为我认为那里选票上出现了两个丹·沙利文的名字。一名联邦法官完全驳回了这一诉求。这是第一个最新进展。
Now, David, I want to get your take on this, but I’ll give the people a little bit of an overview here, that the Trump administration has brought these kind of schemes to California and Alaska, particularly. They were trying to kind of preemptively challenge the results of the U.S. Senate race in Alaska because of, I think, the name situation that was happening there with two Dan Sullivans on the ballot. A federal judge dismissed that entirely. So that’s one update.
第二个进展是,联邦上诉小组拒绝了下令加利福尼亚州官员遵守特朗普指令的请求,该指令要求将2万张邮寄选票单独存放,特朗普政府声称——我认为是毫无证据地声称——这些选票是由非公民寄出的。大卫,请你回应一下,当然也请补充一些背景,关于法院针对特朗普政府在本次大选中试图采取的行动发布的这两项裁决。
The second update is that the federal appeals panel actually denied a request to order California officials to comply with this Trump order to set aside 20,000 mail-in ballots that the Trump administration has claimed, I believe without evidence, were sent in by noncitizens. David, I want you to kind of respond and, of course, give a little additional context to these two orders from the courts around what the Trump administration is trying to do in this election.
大卫·科恩:这两项举措都是特朗普政府和司法部的荒唐行径。正如你刚才指出的,法官们已将它们一并驳回。许多人认为,这只是特朗普试图为大选后对加利福尼亚州的竞选、当然还有阿拉斯加州的竞选发起挑战铺路。
DC: These are both outlandish moves by the Trump administration and the Justice Department. And judges, as you’ve just noted, have tossed them aside. A lot of people think that this is just Trump trying to set up a postelection day challenge to races in California and certainly to the race in Alaska.
他们会不会采取更离谱的行动,事后扣押选票并声称存在舞弊?目前不得而知。我必须说,直到现在,外界一直担心特朗普会在选举日搞破坏:移民与海关执法局特工、司法部派出的监督员等人员都会出现在现场。但我认为,如果真要大规模制造混乱、如果他策划了类似行动,我们早该提前看到迹象了。
Will they try to do something even more outrageous and seize ballots afterwards and claim that there’s some fraud? Don’t know. I have to say, up to now, that there were a lot of concerns that on Election Day Trump would try to screw with the voting: ICE agents, monitors from the Justice Department, others, and they will be out there. But I do think if there was going to be a massive disruption, if he was planning something like that, we’d see signs in advance.
我认为,目前最有可能的情况是,特朗普正在寻找一些选情可能胶着的特定地区作为重点。实际上,你知道,他们在众议院可能无能为力,但如果能集中精力拿下几个不同的选区,或许就能保住参议院。所以他们肯定在着眼于为阿拉斯加的挑战打下基础。我认为他们目前做得还不够好,但眼下事态大致就是这样发展的。我们还要看看唐纳德·特朗普是否会在最后一刻使出什么出人意料的招数。
Now I think it’s most likely that Trump is looking for particular places to focus on where the race might be tight. Practically, you know, they may not be able to do anything in the House, but if they can keep the Senate by zeroing in on a couple of different races. So they’re certainly looking at setting a foundation for a challenge in Alaska. I don’t think they’re doing a good job yet, but that’s kind of how things are panning out at this moment in time. And we’ll see if there are any last-minute surprises up Donald Trump’s sleeve.
那么,让我们再次把视野拉远,看看全国正在发生什么。有些选战,尤其是在众议院方面,没人预料到会势均力敌,但实际上却相当胶着。还有一些选区的选情可能看起来仍不接近,但共和党人正在向这些选区投入资源,试图保护现任众议院共和党人。
So once again, let’s zoom out to what’s happening across the country. There are contests, particularly on the House side, that no one expected to be close, that are indeed rather close. And there are some races that still may not seem close, but the Republicans are throwing resources into these races of trying to protect incumbent House Republicans.
那我们来看其中一个。我们有一位记者诺亚·拉纳德,他一直在关注纽约州北部的一场选战,他现在正和我们连线。诺亚?GH:从车里连线。怎么了,诺亚?
So let’s look at one of them. We have a reporter, Noah Lanard, who’s been looking at a race in upstate New York, and he’s with us right now. Noah? GH: From a car. What’s up, Noah?
DC:那么你是在纽约州北部。你为什么在那里,也告诉我们今天还有谁在那里?
DC: But so you’re up in upstate New York. Why are you there, and tell us who else was there today?
NL:是的,我是说,这算是那种地方——如果一年前你告诉我,我会在选举前夜待在这里,我大概会当场喷出来,然后立刻说,好吧,共和党人肯定出了什么大问题。我现在在纽约州第21国会选区。目前持有这个席位的是伊莉斯·斯特凡尼克,很多听众应该都熟悉她。这个选区两年前唐纳德·特朗普以21个百分点的优势拿下;伊莉斯·斯特凡尼克则以大约24个百分点的优势获胜。
NL: Yeah, so this is, I mean, it’s kind of one of those places, if you told me a year ago this is where I would be on election eve, I would kind of do a spit take and would immediately say, okay, something has gone horribly wrong for Republicans. So I am in New York’s 21st Congressional District. It is currently held by Elise Stefanik, who many listeners will be familiar with. This is a district that Donald Trump won by 21 points two years ago; Elise Stefanik won it by about 24.
但共和党提名了,我得说,一位独一无二的糟糕候选人——安东尼·康斯坦蒂诺,一位贴纸大亨转型的业余说唱歌手,40岁“技术上”算是职业拳击手。他也在这里。今天早上谁来了?副总统万斯在中期选举季最后一天、选举前夕的最后一站,随后还要去俄亥俄州一站。
But Republicans have nominated, I would say, a uniquely bad candidate in the form of Anthony Constantino, a sticker magnate turned amateur rapper, technically professional boxer at the age of 40. And he is here. And who was here this morning? Vice President JD Vance in his last stop of the midterm season on election eve, before one stop in Ohio.
DC:我想暂停一下。上一位共和党候选人以24个百分点优势拿下该选区,特朗普以21个百分点优势获胜,他们却派副总统——只剩几个小时可用、本可去全国几十个其他地方——跑到纽约州北部。这家伙麻烦了吗?康斯坦蒂诺麻烦了吗?谁在跟他竞争?
DC: I want to pause here for a second. A district won by 24 points by the last Republican and 21 points by Donald Trump, and they are sending the vice president, who only has hours left, who could be at one of dozens of other places around the country, to upstate New York. Is this guy in trouble? Is Constantino in trouble? And who’s running against him?
NL:是啊,我觉得,熟悉竞选的人都知道,在竞选最后几个小时里,正职候选人——总统或副总统——的时间是最精心安排的事情之一。所以如果他出现在这个选区,就说明他们觉得形势胶着。而且这是他们最不想去的地方。
NL: Yeah, so I think, you know, people who are familiar with campaigns will know the time that the principal has in the final hours of a race, the president or the vice president, those are some of the most carefully managed things around. So if he is in this district, it is because they believe it is close. And this is the last place they would want to be.
我是说,让大家有个概念,这次集会在纽约州罗姆市。那在奥尔巴尼以西再开两小时车程,该选区一直延伸到加拿大边境的普拉茨堡。我是说,这是纽约州最农村的选区。比纽约州整体更白、更年长。这不是万斯想去的地方。你知道,他想去凤凰城郊区或亚特兰大郊区,那些我们传统上认为的摇摆选区。
I mean, to give people a sense, this rally was in Rome, New York. That’s about two hours past Albany, and this district goes all the way up to the Canadian border, Plattsburgh. I mean, this is the most rural district in New York. It is much whiter than New York, older than New York. It is not the kind of place where JD Vance wants to be. You know, he wants to be in the Phoenix suburbs or the Atlanta suburbs, places that we think of as traditionally swing districts.
但他现在却不得不在这个特朗普以21个百分点优势获胜的选区,为这位候选人“救火”。这不仅仅是推测。民调显示这场竞选势均力敌;甚至在某些情况下显示民主党候选人领先。安东尼·康斯坦蒂诺过去的反应是,他曾试图威胁起诉、或吊销一家报道了这些所谓“假民调”电台的执照。但显然特朗普竞选团队并不认为这些民调是假的,因为这就是万斯今天上午来到这里的原因。
But here he is having to bail out this guy in a district that Trump won by 21 points. And it’s not just a supposition. The polls have shown this race to be close; they’ve even in some cases shown the Democrat to be leading. And Anthony Constantino’s reaction in the past was he tried to threaten to sue or have the license taken of a station that reported on one of these quote-unquote fake polls. But obviously the Trump campaign does not believe these polls are fake, because that is why JD Vance was here this morning.
GH:这其实是个很好的过渡。我们有一段康斯坦蒂诺演讲的同期声(SOT),我想播放给大家听,播放完我们再一起评论。
GH: This is a good transition, actually. We have a SOT from a speech from Constantino that I want to throw us to here and listen, and we can all react on the other side.
GH:你们刚才听到的是安东尼·康斯坦蒂诺的母亲卡罗尔在一个房间里发表演讲。诺亚,那是今天吗,还是近期的?
GH: So what you were just listening to was Anthony Constantino’s mom, Carol, giving a speech to a room. Was that today, Noah, or recently?
NL:是今天。大概两小时前吧。那是卡罗尔·康斯坦蒂诺。你知道,我早些时候在选举周期中给安东尼·康斯坦蒂诺做过专题报道,也听过关于他母亲的好评。安东尼年幼时失去了父亲,那就是她。所以我听过很多关于她的好评,但我总体想说几点。
NL: That was today. That was about two hours ago, probably. That was Carol Constantino. You know, and I profiled Anthony Constantino earlier in the election cycle, and I did hear nice things about his mom. And Anthony lost his father when he was a young boy, and that’s, you know, her. So I’ve heard very nice things about her, but I would just generally say a couple things.
如果到了选战这个阶段,还需要由母亲来介绍,而且她还要预先说明“我儿子树敌很多”,通常意味着你在本轮选战中处境不妙。这也有点像男性政客有时由妻子介绍一样,试图软化一个一直是个“硬派斗士”形象的人。
If you’re being introduced by your mom at this point in the cycle, and she’s kind of preemptively noting, my son has made a lot of enemies, usually means things have not gone so well for you in the cycle. And it’s also kind of in the same way people know a male politician sometimes introduced by their wives, you know, an attempt to soften a person who has been a real brawler, let’s say.
我是说,竞选早期,他推出了一张有点“业余”风格的说唱专辑。其中一首歌针对纽约市长佐赫兰·马姆达尼。歌词里有——不是他原创的歌词,他是完整念出来的——“F-U,B-word(注:骂人脏话)”,针对马姆达尼,把他比作本·拉登,基本上还做了一个抹脖子的手势。
I mean, early on the campaign, he put out kind of an amateur rap album, essentially. And one of the songs was about New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani. It has the lines—not his words, you know, he says the full thing—F-U, B-word about Mamdani, comparing him to Bin Laden, essentially making a throat-slitting gesture.
我是说,这真是个非常不寻常的政客。他实际上正被纽约州保守党主席起诉诽谤。这可是主流政党右侧的那个党派。
I mean, this is like a really unusual politician. He’s actually being sued for defamation by the head of the New York Conservative Party. This is like the party to the right of the main party.
DC:跟我们说说康斯坦蒂诺在集会上自己都说了什么。他为自己辩护的理由是什么?
DC: Talk to us a little bit about what Constantino himself said at this rally. What’s his case for himself?
NL:所以他其实有很好的自我辩护理由,但他似乎无法聚焦于此。他的辩护理由本该是:看,我来自纽约州北部阿尔巴尼以西的一个小城市——阿姆斯特丹。他实际上和埃莉斯·斯特凡尼克上过同一所私立高中,而且还是同一时期,挺巧的。但他俩简直截然不同。斯特凡尼克上了哈佛,而安东尼最初去了波士顿地区的一所大学,不是哈佛,就是波士顿地区的一所普通大学,他说自己被“半开除”了,最后转学去了另一所大学。
NL: So he actually has a good case for himself, but he can’t seem to focus on it. So the case for himself would be: Look, I am from Amsterdam, New York, a small city upstate, past Albany. He actually went to the same private high school as Elise Stefanik, and they were there at the same time, oddly enough. But they could not be more different. Elise Stefanik went to Harvard, and Anthony originally went to a college in the Boston area, not Harvard, just a college in the Boston area, and got semi-kicked out, he said, ends up going to a different college.
但后来,年轻时的他创办了一家名为 Sticker Mule 的贴纸公司,许多听众可能都熟悉。这是一家非常成功的公司。安东尼现在已向这场众议院竞选投入了约 1700 万美元自有资金进行自筹资金竞选,这属于众议院竞选历史上投入个人资金最多的案例之一。
But then he does, later in life, as a younger man, starts a sticker company called Sticker Mule, which many listeners actually might be familiar with. It’s a highly successful company. And Anthony has now taken and put in about $17 million of his own money and self-funding into this House race, which is some of the most that has ever been put into a House race.
想想看:他在特朗普以 21 个百分点优势赢下的选区,投入了众议院竞选历史上最多的个人资金之一——1700 万美元,最后还得靠万斯在最后关头来“救场”。为什么会这样?因为他打了一场独一无二的、极具攻击性的分裂式竞选。我是说,他的支持率极其糟糕,包括很多共和党人基本都受不了这家伙。
So think about this: He’s putting in some of the most money that has ever been put into a House race in terms of his own money, 17 million, in a district that Trump won by 21, and he still needs to get bailed out by JD Vance at the very end. And why is that? It’s because he’s run a uniquely divisive, attacking campaign. I mean, he has just like terrible favorable numbers, including a lot of Republicans who basically can’t stand the guy.
GH:这点我很感兴趣,诺亚。我想有点挑战这个预设,因为感觉这是个绝对输不了的选区。我知道,我知道,这是美国,什么都可能发生,但感觉就是输不了。那么,是否有一种感觉,康斯坦蒂诺确实能吸引基本盘?也许让万斯去一个大家真心喜爱特朗普及其整套政治风格的地方,也许这才是像JD·万斯这样的人现阶段上镜、面对镜头的最佳形象,而不是去一个混合选区或摇摆选区,那里的热情可能稍低一些?这会不会比真担心他们会失去这个非常有把握赢下的地方更符合实际?
GH: This is interesting to me, Noah. I want to kind of like challenge this presupposition, though, because it feels as though this is an unlosable district. I know, I know, it’s America, anything can happen, but it feels unlosable. And so is there a sense that maybe Constantino really does appeal to the base? Maybe getting Vance into a place where folks are really gonna love Trump and his whole brand of politics, maybe that’s the best look for TV, for camera for a person like JD Vance at this stage, as opposed to maybe a mixed district or swing district where there may be a little bit less enthusiasm? Is that maybe more of what this is than a real fear that they might lose this really, really winnable place?
NL:我不这么认为。如果没有民调的话——已经有好几轮民调,每轮都显示双方差距在四个百分点左右,甚至有些显示民主党人布莱克·根德比安领先。他是首次竞选国会议员。他是个奶农,住在选区最北部,靠近加拿大边境。
NL: I don’t think so. I mean, if there hadn’t been polling—there’s been a number of polls, every poll has shown the race within four or so points, including some with the Democrat Blake Gendebien leading. He’s a first-time congressional candidate. He’s a dairy farmer who lives way north in the district, up near the Canadian border.
还要回到初选来看:怎么走到这一步的?这是场有竞争的初选。纽约州共和党建制派希望获胜的热门人选是州参议员罗伯特·斯马伦。他是退役海军陆战队上校,算是这类选区非常经典的共和党候选人。但康斯坦蒂诺介入了,投入数百万自有资金,并拿到了特朗普的背书,部分原因是他说他的两大主要政治影响是唐纳德·特朗普和罗杰·斯通,据称斯通今天也在现场。我没亲眼看见,但我跟一位当地共和党人谈过,对方这么说。
And it’s also important to go back to the primary: How did we get here? So this was a contested primary. The favorite who the New York GOP establishment wanted to win was a state senator named Robert Smullen. He’s a retired Marine colonel, kind of just a classic Republican candidate for a district like this. But Constantino came in, spent millions of his own money, and was able to get a Trump endorsement, partly because he said kind of his two main political influences are Donald Trump and Roger Stone, who apparently was there today. I didn’t see him with my own eyes, but I spoke to a local Republican who said so.
DC:别让我谈起罗杰·斯通。千万别。我是说,大家可以读读我的书《俄罗斯如何获胜》,还有我和伊西科夫合著的《俄罗斯轮盘赌》,每一本——你知道的,但如果他是罗杰·斯通的追随者,那可是个大麻烦。抱歉,我们不打算深究。你得自己去谷歌搜一下,信不信由你,如果你不知道罗杰·斯通是谁的话。
DC: Don’t get me started on Roger Stone. Just don’t. I mean, people can read my book, How Russia Won, and Russian Roulette, the book I did with Isikoff and every—you know, but if he’s a Roger Stone acolyte, then that’s a major problem. And I’m sorry, we’re not gonna get into it. You’re just gonna have to Google this, believe me, if you don’t know who Roger Stone is.
那么,诺亚,太感谢你了,谢谢你在一线的报道。有太多竞选值得关注、值得留意。很高兴有你在现场,相信未来几天我们还会再跟你联系。
So, Noah, thank you so much for this report in the field. There are so many races to choose from and to be keeping an eye on. We’re glad we have you out there, and we’ll be talking to you, I’m sure, in the days ahead.
NL:是啊,大卫,谢谢。如果可以,我想用一个画面作结,因为那实在太超现实了。我当时正跟另一位记者交谈,康斯坦蒂诺,就像我说的,他很难紧扣主题。他演讲的大部分时间都在攻击。当他说出“我从不与总统意见相左,但我在这里要这么做”时,那是个颇具戏剧性的时刻。人群里发出了清晰的倒吸一口凉气的声音。他要说什么?DC:他要说什么?我想知道。他要说什么?NL:他说,不是假新闻,是邪恶新闻,他们就在那里。
NL: Yeah, thank you, David. And if I could just close real quick with one image, because it was just so surreal. I was talking with another reporter, and Constantino, like I was saying, he struggled to stay on message. He just spent much of his speech attacking. It was kind of a dramatic moment when he said, I never disagree with the president, but I’m gonna do this here. And the crowd audibly gasped. What’s he gonna say? DC: What’s he gonna say? I wanna know. What’s he gonna say? NL: It’s not the fake news, he said. It’s the evil news, and they’re right there.
集会结束后,我正跟一位同样属于“邪恶新闻”阵营的同行交谈,康斯坦蒂诺说我们应该被“删除”,用的就是这个词。然后我抬头一看,发现安东尼·康斯坦蒂诺正骑着一辆电动代步车,腿上坐着、或者说身旁坐着一位老退伍军人,正从会场驶出。
So after the rally, I’m talking with a fellow member of the evil news, who he said should be deleted, was his word. And then I look over, and it’s Anthony Constantino riding a mobility scooter with an old veteran kind of on his lap or next to him, scooting out of the venue.
这简直是本届共和党中期选举周期最好的注脚:一个四十出头的男人,就这样骑着电动代步车,穿过飞机库,驶向夕阳。共和党的这个周期也就在这儿结束了。
And it’s like, you cannot get a better image of this Republican midterm cycle: This man just in his 40s just kind of rolling across the airplane hangar into the sun on his mobility scooter. And that’s where the Republican cycle is ending.
DC:《奥斯汀·鲍尔斯》里有个著名场面,他试图骑着那种慢吞吞的载具逃跑。诺亚,本季最佳视频奖非你莫属。
DC: Famous scene in Austin Powers when he tries to escape on that slow-moving vehicle. Well, you get the prize, Noah, for the best video featured on this season.
GH:毫无疑问。诺亚·拉纳德,感谢你抽出时间,感谢你的报道。你不是邪恶的人,所以我们很感激你在做真正、真正的工作。我相信明天我们还会就你的部分报道以及这一切再次与你联系。谢谢,诺亚。NL:是的,谢谢,加里森。
GH: Hands down. Noah Lanard, thank you for your time, your reporting. You aren’t evil, and so we’re thankful that you are doing the real, real work here. And I’m sure we’ll check in with you tomorrow as well about some of your reporting and all of this. Thank you, Noah. NL: Yeah, thank you, Garrison.
GH:好的,大卫,在我们获得结果、对这场选举结果有清晰认识之前,这最后一集节目即将结束。所以我们要做个压力测试。我们通常会问什么让你感到压力,我想把你关注的竞选融入进去。我认为这能很好地反映出也许什么让你感到压力,什么萦绕在你心头。
GH: Okay, David, we’re nearing the end of this last episode before we get results, before we have a clear picture about the outcome of this election. So we’re gonna do the stress test here. We normally ask what’s stressing you out, and I want to kind of infuse the races that you’re watching. I think it’s a good indicator of what’s maybe stressing you out, what’s on your mind.
那么让我们进入正题:你密切关注的一两个或多个竞选是什么?我们的听众和观众也可以关注这些竞选,以便了解在这一中期选举周期中,选举之夜对民主党人和共和党人的进展将如何。请讲。
And so let’s go there: What are the one or two or however many races that you’re keeping a close eye on that our listeners and our viewers can actually watch as well to kind of understand how the night will be going for Democrats and Republicans during this midterm cycle? Go ahead.
DC:嗯,我关注的竞选,我认为并不令人难以置信地紧张。它们可能会;我们将拭目以待。肯塔基州有一场竞选,第六选区,许多评论员和专家将其指为本周期的风向标众议院竞选。
DC: Well, the races that I’m watching, I don’t think are incredibly stressful. They may be; we’ll see how it plays out. There’s a race in Kentucky, the 6th District, and a lot of pundits and experts are pointing to it as the bellwether House race of this cycle.
那就是扎克·登博,一名民主党人。他曾在司法部工作,但因抗议特朗普对司法部的所作所为而辞职。他正在竞选一个空缺席位,对手是拉尔夫·阿尔瓦拉多,他是一名医生,自称“让美国再次健康”医生,非常、非常支持特朗普。他们在这里都是各自政党相当不错的候选人。
And that is Zach Denbo, a Democrat. He worked for the Justice Department, but he resigned in protest to what Trump was doing to the Justice Department. And he’s running for an open seat against Ralph Alvarado, who is a doctor who calls himself a MAHA doctor, who’s very, very pro-Trump. They’re both kind of good candidates for each party here.
之所以将其视为风向标,不仅是因为竞争激烈,还因为肯塔基州的投票于美国东部时间下午6点结束。这非常早,因此人们将关注这场竞选,将其作为全国选情可能走向的早期指标之一。如果任一方以明显优势获胜,很可能预示着整晚的选情走向。所以,请再次关注肯塔基州第6选区,扎克·登博和拉尔夫·阿尔瓦拉多的对决,这场精彩的竞选可能会透露很多信息。
And the reason this is a bellwether is not just because it’s close, but Kentucky polls close at 6:00 p.m. So that’s very early, and that’s Eastern time. So people are looking at this race to be one of the early indicators of where the national vote may turn out to be. And if either one wins by a decisive margin, it will likely tell us what to expect for the night. So again, you know, look for Kentucky 6, Zach Denbo and Ralph Alvarado, a good race that may tell us a lot.
此外,还有两场引起我兴趣的竞选,除了其他正在进行的一切:现任联邦众议员、共和党人斯科特·佩里,曾任众议院极右翼团体“自由核心小组”主席,将在宾夕法尼亚州第10选区对阵珍妮尔·斯泰尔森,后者是一名电视广播员。该选区涵盖哈里斯堡、约克等地。两年前两人交锋时,佩里以5000票的优势获胜。他现在主张对伊朗开战;他是那个在2020年试图推翻大选结果时与唐纳德·特朗普关系非常密切的人。
And then two other races that just have piqued my interest, in addition to everything else that’s going on: Scott Perry, incumbent House Republican, used to run the Freedom Caucus, the far-right group in the House, is up against Janelle Stelson, who is a TV broadcaster in Pennsylvania 10. This is an area around Harrisburg, York, Pennsylvania. Last time they went against each other two years ago, Perry won by 5,000 votes. He’s now running in favor of the Iran war; he was a guy who was involved very close with Donald Trump in trying to overturn the election in 2020.
她筹集了大量资金;上一次竞选也很出色。民调显示双方以48%对48%打成平手。所以这是一场非常值得关注的竞选。
She’s raised a lot of money; she ran a good campaign last time. The polls show this tied at 48 points apiece. So this is a very interesting race to watch.
最后我想补充的是,在所有参议院竞选中——你们可以自行挑选,有很多重大、有趣且重要的竞选——我认为堪萨斯州参议员竞选中亚当·汉密尔顿与罗杰·马歇尔的对决极其有趣。加里森,你可能记得,马歇尔是一名妇产科医生,在竞选期间陷入麻烦,因为曝光他曾起诉数百名患者,在未付账单上收取极高利息,甚至让一些患者被捕。所以这对一个人来说形象真的很不好。
And finally, I’ll add, of all the Senate races out there—and you can take your pick; there are a lot of major and interesting and important races out there—the one between Adam Hamilton and Roger Marshall for Senate in Kansas, I think is incredibly interesting. You’ll remember, Garrison, that Marshall, who is an OB-GYN, got into trouble during this campaign when it came out that he had sued hundreds of his patients, and after charging them a very high interest rate on bills not paid, and they even gotten some of them arrested. And so this is really not a good look for a guy.
亚当·汉密尔顿是堪萨斯州一座卫理公会大型教会的主任牧师,他因被指“不是个好基督徒”而遭到极右翼和“让美国再次伟大”(MAGA)支持者的攻击。那么,我们拭目以待:在这场心腹之地的竞选中,究竟是这位“好牧师”会胜出,还是那位把病人送进监狱、或者试图这么做的“恶产科医生”会占上风。
And Adam Hamilton is the head of a Methodist megachurch in Kansas, and he’s been attacked by the far right and MAGA people for not being a good Christian. Well, we’ll see whether the good pastor versus the evil OB-GYN who sent his patients to prison, or tried to, is going to prevail in this race in the heartland. GH: Yeah, I’ll tell you two races.
GH:是的,我要说两场竞选。大卫,这两场非常有看头,我正密切关注。佐治亚州州长选战引人注目,基莎·兰斯·博托姆斯对阵里克·杰克逊。这里有一个我认为被低估讨论的因素:州长对哪些法案签署成法律有很大影响力,而佐治亚州下一任州长将拥有潜在的否决权,这在毫无疑问将再次到来的南方重划选区工作中尤为关键。
Those are very interesting, David. Two races that I’m paying very close attention to: The Georgia gubernatorial race is interesting to me. You have Keisha Lance Bottoms versus Rick Jackson down there. There’s kind of this, I think, underdiscussed element here, where the governor of a state has a lot of influence on which laws get signed into law here, and there’s potential for a veto power that the next governor of Georgia will have, particularly around the redistricting effort that is no doubt going to come back around in the South.
说到重划选区,我非常关注贾斯汀·J·皮尔逊在田纳西州第九国会选区的竞选。他对阵州参议员布伦特·泰勒。我认为贾斯汀在一个为他输掉而设计的选区里开展了一场非常有力的竞选。因此人们依然在关注,并认为这具有竞争力。尽管该选区再次是为让他彻底落败而设计的,但它已被标记为一个“由红转蓝”选区。
Speaking of redistricting, I’m thinking a lot about Justin J. Pearson’s race in Tennessee’s 9th Congressional District. He’s running against state Sen. Brent Taylor. And Justin has run a really strong campaign, I think, in a district that’s designed for him to lose. And so people are still looking at it, and they think it’s competitive. It’s been marked down as a red-to-blue district, even though it’s designed, again, for him to lose it outright.
所以这两场竞选肯定是我将密切关注的。我认为它们关乎黑人政治力量;我认为它们也反映了选民、特别是南方黑人选民对今年选举进程的诸多不满。所以这些是我将关注的竞选。当然,你们也请在评论区告诉我们,你们将关注哪些竞选。
And so those two races are certainly races that I’ll be paying very close attention to. I think they speak to Black political power; I think they also speak to a lot of the frustrations that voters, particularly Black voters in the South, have around this year’s process. And so those are the ones that I’ll be looking at. Of course, you should let us know down in the comments which races you’ll be looking at as well.
DC:这是一个引人入胜的中期选举周期,有许多不同的故事、主题,关乎美国一些最基本的价值观、原则、理念、愿望、需求和期盼。仅仅几个小时后,我们就会看到国家的心态如何,关于过去两年发生的事情,以及他们希望未来两年走向何方。
DC: Well, this has been a fascinating midterm cycle with so many different stories, themes, about some of the most basic values, principles, ideas, desires, wants, aspirations of America. And we’re gonna see in just a few hours where the country’s head is at, about what’s happened in the past two years and where they think they want to go in the next two.
但目前我们就为您提供这些内容。感谢您在我们临近选举时陪伴我们。如果您错过了《压力测试》的任何一集,可以去我们的 YouTube 页面。那就是 在那里找到我们。我们很快就会回来,对吧,Garrison?
But for now, that’s all we have for you. So thanks for being with us as we’ve gotten close to the election. If you’ve missed any episodes of Stress Test, you can go to our YouTube page. That’sand find us there. And we’ll be back really soon, right, Garrison?
GH:非常、非常快。当然,您应该知道:我们出色的新闻报道只有在您的支持下才能实现。您的观看、您的订阅让我们坚持下去。事实上,您现在可能打开了笔记本电脑,可能拿着手机。请现在就点赞这个视频,分享给朋友,发到群聊里,帮助我们触达更广泛的受众。
GH: Very, very soon. Of course, you should know this: Our great journalism is only possible with your support. Your views, your subscriptions keep us going. In fact, you probably have your laptop out, you probably have your phone out. Go ahead and right now, like this video, share it with a friend, put it in the group chat, and help us reach a broader audience.
当然,如果您有任何问题、任何建议,可以留在下方评论区给我们。我们马上就会回来,跟您聊聊正在发生的事情,马上又会回来,为您带来另一期《压力测试》。在此之前,保重,去投票吧。
And of course, if you have any questions, any suggestions, you can leave them for us down in the comments below. We will be back in just a little while to talk to you about what’s going on, in just a little while again for another edition of . Until then, take care and go vote.