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中期选举竞选揭示了我们的政治走向What the Midterms Campaign Tells Us About Where Our Politics Are Headed

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大选日为一段动荡的竞选季画上了句号,在此期间,对政治体制失灵的愤怒暴露了两党内部非同寻常的分裂。

Election Day caps a tumultuous campaign season during which anger at the failures of the political system exposed extraordinary divisions within each party.

上周末在密歇根州,民主党出现了一场惊人的分裂:中间派联邦众议员海莉·史蒂文斯在参议员初选中以微弱劣势落败后,竟背书该竞选中的共和党候选人,并指责本党提名人阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德在其进步议程中注入了反犹太主义。

In Michigan last weekend, an astonishing Democratic rift emerged when the centrist Rep. Haley Stevens, who had narrowly lost the Senate primary, endorsed the Republican in the race and accused her party’s nominee, Abdul El-Sayed, of infusing his progressive agenda with antisemitism.

共和党方面,特朗普总统力推德克萨斯州被起诉并遭弹劾的总检察长肯·帕克斯顿竞逐参议员席位,而非选择一位更稳妥的候选人,结果却在竞选途中不断嘲讽帕克斯顿,因为后者的竞选陷入困境。该席位如今已成摇摆席位,与其他几个特朗普两年前以两位数优势拿下的州的席位一样,包括俄亥俄州、爱荷华州、阿拉斯加州和堪萨斯州。原因之一是,特朗普征收关税并与伊朗开战,导致物价上涨,激怒了许多自己的选民。

Republicans, in turn, have watched as President Trump elevated Ken Paxton, the indicted and impeached attorney general in Texas, for a Senate seat over a politically safer option, only to mock Paxton continuously on the trail as his campaign struggled. The seat is now in play, along with those in a handful of other states Trump won by double digits just two years ago, including Ohio, Iowa, Alaska and Kansas. One reason is that Trump angered many of his own voters by imposing tariffs and waging war with Iran, leading to higher prices.

两党在选民眼前分崩离析的迹象早已显现,当时来自缅因州的一名默默无闻、未经审查的牡蛎养殖户格雷厄姆·普拉特纳,以愤怒的民粹主义战斗口号,超越了党魁挑选的人选。“人们知道体制在坑害他们,”他在宣布竞选参议员的视频中说,“他们骨子里清楚这一点。”

The signs of the parties fracturing right before voters’ eyes came early, when Graham Platner, an obscure and unvetted oysterman from Maine, surged past the pick of party leaders with an angry, populist battle cry. “People know that the system is screwing them,” he said in a video launching his Senate bid. “They know it in their bones.”

不到一年后,他声势如虹的竞选活动土崩瓦解,他也随之销声匿迹。

Less than a year later, his meteoric campaign imploded, and he was gone.

今年竞选的混乱本质蕴含着一个诱人的积极面:美国选民对两党的不满已深到足以创造政治变革的新可能,这种变革或许能让广大选民感到更加满意。

The unruly nature of this year’s contests contains an appealing upside: the prospect that America’s unhappiness with the parties has grown so deep that it creates new possibilities for a political change, one that a swath of voters could find more satisfying.

许多选民今年重新审视自己对两党的效忠,使选民结构变得更加流动。选民推举出了一代新的政治领袖,他们有潜力重塑两党。

Many voters this year have been re-evaluating their allegiance to either political party, creating more fluidity in the electorate. Voters have elevated a new generation of political leaders who have the potential to reshape the parties.

选民的不满在跨党派层面产生了令人惊讶的共识,即政府应如何帮助民众应对生活成本。这三点都留有余地,表明各党有动力寻找新途径,以更好地回应选民诉求。周二的选举将提供线索,显示新一届国会能带来多大变化,以及未来几年总统初选可能是多么开放。

And voter dissatisfaction has produced surprising areas of agreement across party lines on how government can help people handle the cost of living. All three open the possibility that the parties have incentives to find new ways to become more responsive to voters. Tuesday’s elections will offer clues to just how much change can come from a new Congress and what likely will be the most wide-open presidential primary elections in years.“It does feel like we’re at an inflection point,” said Bill Haslam, a Republican former governor of Tennessee.

“感觉我们确实处于一个拐点,”田纳西州共和党前州长比尔·哈斯拉姆说。“问题是,现在会不会有什么结果出现?”他说,对公众挫败感的乐观解读是,“‘你们两党都该死’的心态,可能会引向‘咱们试试新办法’。”

“The question is, is something now going to come out of it?”The optimistic view of the public’s frustration, he said, is that “the ‘pox on both your houses,’ might lead to ‘let’s try something new.’”

多年来,美国人一直对其政治领袖感到不满。在过去10次选举中,有9次选民将众议院、参议院或白宫的控制权从某一党手中夺走。仅凭历史惯例,作为执政党的共和党今年面临更艰巨的挑战。

Voters reject partiesAmericans have been unhappy with their political leaders for years. In nine of the past 10 elections, voters have ejected one party or the other from its hold on the House, the Senate or the White House. The weight of history alone suggests that Republicans, as the party in power, have the tougher challenge this year.

共和党近几周自身的竞选投入显示,他们正全力争取保住面临高风险的众议院多数派地位,甚至连参议院多数派地位也存在遥远的丧失可能。

The GOP’s own campaign investments in recent weeks show them racing to preserve a House majority that is at high risk and that, more remotely, even its Senate majority could slip away.

不满情绪甚至比以往更深。盖洛普上个月民调发现,仅15%的选民认为大多数国会议员值得连任,创下其1994年有民调记录以来的新低。民主党民调专家马克·普特南在主持选民焦点小组时表示,愤怒达到了“极其有毒的程度。自我介绍一分钟后,他们就开始发泄不满,”他说。“我干这行40年了,从未见过人们像现在这样愤世嫉俗、怀疑一切。”越来越多的选民不再认为两党代表自己。

The dissatisfaction runs even deeper than in the past. Gallup last month found 15% of voters saying that most members of Congress deserve re-election, a record low in their polls dating to 1994. When Mark Putnam, a Democratic pollster, holds focus groups with voters, the anger reaches “an extremely poisonous level. One minute after they’ve introduced themselves, they start venting,” he said. “I’ve been doing this for 40 years, and I’ve never seen people as cynical and skeptical as they are now.”Increasingly, voters don’t see the parties as representing them.

盖洛普去年发现,认同为独立人士的比例创下历史新高,达到 45%,而《华尔街日报》近期的民调显示,同时对两党持负面看法的选民比例大幅上升。尽管特朗普仍是共和党内无可争议的主导力量,但《华尔街日报》民调显示,认同特朗普“让美国再次伟大”(MAGA)运动的共和党人比例有所下降,且近几周来,一系列共和党候选人通过反对其关税政策和与伊朗的战争,与总统划清了界限。

Gallup last year found a record-high 45% identifying as independents, and recent Wall Street Journal polling found a big jump in the share of voters who hold unfavorable views of both parties. While Trump remains by far the dominant force in the GOP, fewer Republicans now identify with Trump’s MAGA movement, Journal polling shows, and a range of GOP candidates in recent weeks have broken with the president by disagreeing with his tariffs and the war with Iran.

一些党内领袖担忧,他今年支持达琳·格雷厄姆等提名人选冒了不必要的风险,格雷厄姆是一名缺乏经验的候选人,其参选使得南卡罗来纳州面临 28 年来首次选出民主党参议员的风险。

Some party leaders are fretting that he took unnecessary risks this year in backing nominees such as Darline Graham, an inexperienced candidate who has put South Carolina in jeopardy of electing a Democrat to the Senate for the first time in 28 years.

两党都因其策略而面临疏远选民的风险。俄亥俄州共和党州长候选人维韦克·拉马斯瓦米上月播出的一则广告,因展示其对手疏远的母亲,遭到该州州长及其他共和党领袖谴责为不体面。在阿拉斯加,一名叫丹·J·沙利文二世的候选人出现在参议员选票上,引发指控,称民主党候选人玛丽·佩尔托拉试图借此从其主要对手、现任参议员丹·S·沙利文那里分流选票。

Both parties have risked alienating voters with their tactics. Vivek Ramaswamy, the Republican candidate for governor in Ohio, ran an ad last month that was denounced as unseemly by the state’s governor and other GOP leaders for featuring his opponent’s estranged mother. In Alaska, the appearance of a candidate named Dan J. Sullivan Jr. on the ballot for Senate raised accusations that the Democratic candidate, Mary Peltola, was trying to siphon votes from her main opponent, incumbent Sen. Dan S. Sullivan.

佩尔托拉的竞选团队否认了这一指控。新星崛起在所有这些背景下,中期选举结果将显示美国人在党派归属上的弹性有多大——以及每个党扩大其联盟的机会有多大。有相当比例的拉美裔选民、年轻选民、农村选民以及庞大的工人阶级选民群体中的一些人告诉民调机构,他们可能会在周二通过弃权或转换党派支持来表达不满。

Her campaign has denied the claim. Rising starsIn the wake of all this, the midterm results will show how elastic Americans are in their political affiliations—and what opportunity each party has to broaden its coalition. Meaningful shares of Latino voters, young voters, rural voters and some in the large bloc of working-class voters have told pollsters they may their dissatisfaction on Tuesday by staying home or switching their support from one party to the other.A new cohort of young political leaders is now introducing itself to this more fluid voter pool.

一批新的年轻政治领袖正向这个更加流动的选民群体介绍自己。来自佐治亚州的 39 岁民主党参议员乔恩·奥索夫,凭借对特朗普政府的批评,在社交媒体上吸引了至少 300 万粉丝。

Sen. Jon Ossoff, a 39-year-old Democrat from Georgia, has drawn at least 3 million followers on social media with critiques of the Trump administration.

民主党人詹姆斯·塔拉里科(James Talarico)今年37岁,之所以有竞争力角逐德克萨斯州参议员席位,很大程度上归功于他的演说技巧。共和党众议员布兰登·吉尔(Brandon Gill)今年32岁,是众议院中最年轻的共和党议员,在Instagram和X上拥有约200万粉丝。他们都将出现在周二的选票上。

Democrat James Talarico, 37, is in the hunt for the Texas Senate seat due in large part to his oratory skills. Republican Rep. Brandon Gill, the youngest Republican member of the House, at 32, has about 2 million followers on Instagram and X. All are on the ballot on Tuesday.

两党都将面临内部斗争,争论吸引新选民的最佳方式。副总统JD·万斯(JD Vance)等共和党人高举“让美国再次伟大”(MAGA)大旗,而非MAGA派别则在新罕布什尔州共和党中间派参议员候选人约翰·E·苏努努(John E. Sununu)等候选人身上找到了代言人,他表示致力于塑造一个“后特朗普时代”的美国。

“当唐纳德·特朗普两年后离任时,国家将何去何从?”他在一场辩论中问道。

Both parties are headed for internal fights over the best way to draw new voters. Republicans such as Vice President JD Vance are carrying the MAGA banner, while the non-MAGA wing has a voice in candidates such as John E. Sununu of New Hampshire, a Republican centrist running for the Senate, who says he is looking to shape a post-Trump America.“When Donald Trump leaves office in two years, where does the country go?” he asked in a debate.

在民主党方面,初选季定义了进步派与中间派之间激烈的斗争,这为利用冉冉升起的新星的声望、搭建更大的政治帐篷提供了机会。

Among Democrats, the roiling fight between progressives and centrists that defined the primary season presents the chance to build a bigger tent by harnessing the popularity of rising stars.“The parties are going to be realigning,” said Rep. Jake Auchincloss, a Massachusetts Democrat.

“政党将经历重组,”马萨诸塞州民主党众议员杰克·奥钦克洛斯(Jake Auchincloss)表示。“这当然是民主党的机遇,但也是巨大的风险”——在他看来,风险在于民主党提供特朗普民粹主义的“稀释版”。

“And of course, it’s an opportunity for Democrats, but it’s also a massive risk”—a risk, he saw, of Democrats offering a watered-down version of Trump’s populism.

奥钦克洛斯领导一个名为“多数派民主党人”(Majority Democrats)的团体,试图将党引导至他所看到的、介于特朗普运动与“激进左派”之间的政治空间,他批评后者搞意识形态纯洁性测试。“为中产阶级创造财富的唯一途径是通过市场经济,”他说,这可能意味着挑战分区、制药或其他利益集团。塔拉里科是该团体成员,其他议员也是。奥钦克洛斯表示,民主党的目标应该是吸纳“想要一个为中产阶级奔走的政党的、精疲力竭的大多数美国人”。

Auchincloss leads a group called Majority Democrats that is trying to steer the party into the political space he sees between Trump’s movement and the “activist left,” which he criticizes for holding ideological purity tests. “The only way to build wealth for the middle class is through the market economy,” he said, which might mean challenging zoning, pharmaceutical or other interests. Talarico is a member, as are other lawmakers. The goal of the Democratic Party, Auchincloss said, should be to draw in “the exhausted majority of Americans who want a party that is working for the middle class.”

问题在于,两党中是否会有任何一方试图通过向政治中间靠拢来建立持久的多数派优势。

The question is whether either party will try to build a durable majority by moving to the political center.

“障碍很高,”美国企业研究院(American Enterprise Institute,一个右倾智库)的政治人口学家鲁伊·泰谢拉(Ruy Teixeira)说。初选选民负责选出提名人,往往更受意识形态驱动,而非中间派。“这需要一位真正的政治企业家来实现,”泰谢拉说,“并向选民推销。但我认为机会是真实存在的。” 请致信亚伦·齐特纳(Aaron Zitner),邮箱:aaron.zitner@wsj.com

The impediments are high, said Ruy Teixeira, a political demographer at the American Enterprise Institute, a right-leaning think tank. Primary voters, who pick the nominees, tend to be more ideologically driven, not centrist.“It would take a real political entrepreneur to do it,” Teixeira said, “and sell it to voters. But I think the opportunity is real.”Write to Aaron Zitner at aaron.zitner@wsj.com

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