华盛顿——十年以来，美国的政治版图基本陷入停滞，锁定在差不多那半打政治战场上，反映出一个极化且势均力敌的国家。周二，选民们挥舞起拆屋铁锤砸碎了这张版图，在长期被视为稳固属于共和党的州选举了民主党人。
WASHINGTON — For a decade, the US political map has been largely stagnant, locked into the same half-dozen or so political battlegrounds, reflecting a polarized, evenly divided country. On Tuesday, voters took a wrecking ball to that map, electing Democrats in states that were long considered reliably Republican.
堪萨斯州、南卡罗来纳州、得克萨斯州、俄亥俄州和田纳西州——所有这些都是总统唐纳德·特朗普两年前轻松获胜的州——在联邦参议员选举中支持了民主党人，其中几个州在州长选举中也是如此。
Kansas, South Carolina, Texas, Ohio and Iowa — all states that President Donald Trump easily won two years ago — backed Democrats for the US Senate and, in several of them, for governor, too.
尽管目前尚不清楚这些结果是否代表着持久的地壳运动，但它们至少引发了这样一场讨论：这个国家是否可能超越其地理僵局，以及民主党人是否能在名义上的红州、特别是共和党的票仓得克萨斯州，在下一届总统竞选中展开竞争。
Though it's unclear whether the results represent a durable tectonic shift, they at least open the conversation about whether the country may move beyond its geographic deadlock, and whether Democrats can compete in nominally red states in the next presidential campaign, most notably in Republicans' electoral stronghold of Texas.
得克萨斯州共和党策略师大卫·波利亚恩斯基表示：“尽管民主党人在自吉米·卡特以来的总统竞选中就没有赢得过得克萨斯州，但昨晚的历史性结果可能会诱使他们真正在该州强劲的40张选举人票上发起冲击。”只有加利福尼亚州拥有更多的选举人票。
“Even though Democrats haven't won Texas in a presidential race since Jimmy Carter, last night's historic results may entice them to make a real run at the state's robust 40 electoral votes,” said Texas Republican strategist David Polyansky. Only California has more electoral votes.
他补充道：“至少，这将耗费共和党人数不清的数百万美元和难以计数的兵力来进行防守。”
“At a minimum, that would cost Republicans countless millions of dollars and untold manpower to defend against,” he added.
乔治敦大学政治学家约书亚·胡德表示，这种转变也将标志着政党运作方式的巨变。民主党人若要在该国红色的腹地保住战果，可能需要拥抱诸如农业法案这样对当地选民至关重要、却并非典型自由派活动人士所关心的事情。
Such a shift would also signal a sea change in the way political parties function, said Joshua Huder, a Georgetown political scientist. For Democrats to hold onto their gains in the red center of the country, they would likely need to embrace causes like the farm bill that are vital to voters there but not on the mind of your typical liberal activist.
胡德在谈到民主党人时问道：“他们愿意在堪萨斯州、艾奥瓦州和得克萨斯州这样地方竞争吗？如果他们这样做，那将从根本上改变政治。”
“Are they willing to compete in places like Kansas, Iowa and Texas?”Huder asked of Democrats. “That fundamentally changes politics if they do.”
民主党策略师警告称，通往总统宝座的道路不会在一夜之间被重新绘制。周二的大多数结果都源于特朗普极低的受欢迎程度以及选民对生活成本的不满。
The path to the presidency will not be redrawn overnight, Democratic strategists cautioned. Most of Tuesday's results stemmed from Trump’s deep unpopularity and voters’ unhappiness with the cost of living.
但在保守州以及艾奥瓦州和俄亥俄州等曾经的摇摆州，民主党在全州范围及各级选票上的广泛胜利，使该党得以开始构建一个他们已逾10年未曾拥有的组织架构。
But Democrats' widespread, statewide and down-ballot victories in conservative states and onetime swing-states like Iowa and Ohio allow the party to start building an organizational structure they've not had for more than 10 years.
民主党赢得了38年来在得克萨斯州的首次参议院竞选，同时他们还击败了三任共和党州长格雷格·阿博特（Greg Abbott），并赢得了该州众议院的控制权。这是席卷全美的一场选举冲击波的一部分，它横扫了长期稳固的保守派大本营中的在任官员，使亚利桑那州和威斯康星州等原本可靠的右翼州议会发生翻转，并带来了自1974年“水门事件”后选举以来政治权力最大的一次转变。
Democrats won their first Texas Senate race in 38 years, but they also knocked off three-term Republican Gov. Greg Abbott and won control of the state House. It was part of an electoral shock wave that swept across the entire country, knocking out incumbents in long-safe conservative strongholds, flipping reliably right-leaning statehouses in places like Arizona and Wisconsin and delivering the biggest shift in political power since the post-Watergate election of 1974.
埃默里大学（Emory University）政治学家艾伦·阿布拉莫维茨（Alan Abramowitz）表示：“这显然某种程度上是一个突破，对特朗普及其政策的不满情绪是如此强烈。”但他预计这种情况不会持续下去。阿布拉莫维茨补充道：“尽管这次选举发生了什么，我们依然高度极化。两党支持者都将对方视为对自己生活方式的威胁。”
“It clearly was some type of a breakthrough; the level of discontent with Trump and his policies was so strong,” said Alan Abramowitz, a political scientist at Emory University. He doesn't expect it to last. “We remain very polarized, despite what happened in this election,” Abramowitz added. “Supporters of each party perceive the other side as a threat to their way of life.”
不过，阿布拉莫维茨和其他人指出，推动这场历史性选举的动态在2028年仍将存在。几个月来，民主党一直希望复制2006年和2008年选举的成功——当时他们夺回了国会控制权，并在两年后巴拉克·奥巴马首次竞选总统时扩大了优势。
But Abramowitz and others noted that the dynamic that fueled the historic election will still be around in 2028. Democrats have for months hoped to repeat the successes of the 2006 and 2008 elections, when they won back Congress and then, two years later, expanded their margins in Barack Obama's first presidential run.
曾在2008年竞选团队工作并管理奥巴马2012年连任团队的吉姆·梅西纳（Jim Messina）表示，民主党现在将能够在得克萨斯州建立本土机器，同时为2028年做仔细的谋划。
Jim Messina, who worked on that 2008 campaign and managed Obama's 2012 reelection team, said Democrats will now be able to build up their local apparatus in Texas while taking a careful look ahead of 2028.
梅西纳说：“对总统竞选经理来说，得克萨斯州是一个涉及数亿美元的决定，你会尽可能地拖延到最后一刻再做决定。”
“Texas is a hundreds-of-millions-of-dollars decision for a presidential campaign manager, and you're going to wait as long as you can to decide,” Messina said.
这就是为什么分析工作现在在俄亥俄州、爱荷华州和得克萨斯州等州开始的原因，民主党民调专家约翰·安扎洛内说。他是2020年总统乔·拜登的首席民调专家兼高级顾问，也是奥巴马2008年和2012年竞选活动的民调专家。
That's why the analysis begins now in states such as Ohio, Iowa and Texas, said Democratic pollster John Anzalone, President Joe Biden's chief pollster and senior adviser in 2020 and pollster for Obama's 2008 and 2012 campaigns.
“我们将对此进行研究。我们将进入这些州，进行民调和焦点小组讨论，看看潜在的回报率如何，”安扎洛内说，他曾为前北卡罗来纳州州长罗伊·库珀成功的参议院竞选活动做民调并提供建议。“一切都关乎资源。” 尽管如此，民主党的胜利不仅仅关乎资源。该党在全国大部分地区的支出处于劣势，但仍取得了胜利，包括在通常倾向共和党的人口群体中取得进展。
“What we'll do is research it. We'll go into these states, do polling and focus groups and see what the rate of return might be,” said Anzalone, who polled for and advised former North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper's winning Senate campaign. “It's all about the resources.”Still, the Democratic wins were about more than resources. The party was outspent across much of the country, but still racked up wins, including gains among demographics that normally favor Republicans.
根据美联社选民投票和美联社VoteCast调查，与2024年相比，民主党在全国范围内在没有大学学历的白人选民中的表现更好，尽管共和党总体上仍赢得了这一群体。这一群体对特朗普在爱荷华州和俄亥俄州等曾经的摇摆州取得成功至关重要，奥巴马曾两次赢得这两个州。
Democrats nationwide fared better this year, relative to 2024, among white voters without college degrees, according to The AP Voter Poll and AP VoteCast, although Republicans still won them overall. This group was critical to Trump's success in onetime battlegrounds like Iowa and Ohio after Obama carried them twice.
共和党在农村地区支持率的流失在爱荷华州尤为明显，特朗普在他的三次总统竞选中曾在那里占据主导地位。约60%的自称居住在农村地区或小城镇的爱荷华州选民在2022年支持共和党，但由于关税和高昂的燃油价格压低了农民利润，他们今年的投票倾向更为接近。美联社选民投票发现，共和党候选人阿什利·辛森仅赢得了略超过一半的农村或小城镇选民，而民主党候选人乔什·图雷克赢得了该群体约40%的选民。
The erosion of Republican support in rural areas was especially pronounced in Iowa, where Trump had dominated in his three presidential races. About 6 in 10 Iowa voters who say they live in a rural area or small town backed Republicans in 2022, but their vote was more closely split this year as tariffs and high fuel prices weighed on farmers’ profits. Republican candidate Ashley Hinson won just over half of rural or small-town voters this year, The AP Voter Poll found, while Democratic candidate Josh Turek won about 4 in 10 voters in this group.
图雷克还在爱荷华州东部人口稀少的农村县份获胜，自前五届参议员汤姆·哈金2008年获胜并随后退休以来，没有任何民主党参议院候选人赢得过这些县份。
Turek also triumphed in lightly populated, rural counties in eastern Iowa that no Democratic Senate candidate had carried since former five-term Sen. Tom Harkin won in 2008 before retiring.
“我们正处于一个非常动荡的政治时代，”正在完成第二个任期的佛罗里达州州长、共和党人罗恩·德桑蒂斯周三在新闻发布会上说。
“We’re in a very volatile political era,” said Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, a Republican who is finishing his second term, during a news conference Wednesday.
德桑蒂斯将由共和党众议员拜伦·唐纳兹接任，后者虽身处该州近来作为保守派大本营的背景下，却仅以微弱优势当选继任者。
DeSantis will be replaced by Rep. Byron Donalds, a fellow Republican who was only narrowly elected as his successor despite the state’s recent reputation as a conservative stronghold.
“形势变化很快，领导人必须意识到这一点，”德桑蒂斯说，“不要以为两年前竞选中行之有效的做法，现在或未来必然还管用。”共和党策略师克里斯汀·戴维森表示，本党不应恐慌，敦促党员深入剖析选情，吸取教训，规划前路。
“Things shift quickly, and leaders just got to recognize that,” said DeSantis, “and don’t act like whatever worked even two years ago in a campaign is necessarily going to work today or would work going forward.”Republican strategist Kristin Davison said her party shouldn't panic, urging members to dig into the results, learn what happened and chart a path forward.
“我认为，任何人在尘埃落定之际立刻推断 2028 年的影响，都将不得不修正看法，”她说。
“I think anyone immediately presuming 2028 implications as the dust settles today will need to make revisions,” she said.