正如往事常为序章，共和党如今多在思考2006年的惨败——那是共和党总统最后一次带领本党迎来第二次中期选举。资深共和党人尽量不让1986年浮上心头（那一年共和党失去了8个参议院席位）。《华盛顿邮报》周五披露的一条关于民调的真相，给主流派带来了一丝希望，尤其是在2024年投票给特朗普总统的州。《邮报》透露，其民调人员在堪萨斯州拨打了8.5万个电话、发送了5万条短信，以衡量对参议员罗杰·马歇尔的支持率，后者面临民主党人亚当·汉密尔顿的挑战。
As the past is often prologue, much of the GOP is thinking today about the pounding the party took in 2006, the last time a Republican president led his party into the midterms for the second time. Older Republicans try not to let 1986 enter their heads. (The GOP lost eight Senate seats that year.) A truth bolt about polling from the Washington Post on Friday gave some hope to the mainstream, especially in states that voted for President Trump in 2024. The Post revealed that its pollsters had made 85,000 calls and sent 50,000 text messages in Kansas seeking to measure support for Senator Roger Marshall, who is being challenged by Democrat Adam Hamilton.
32%的堪萨斯州民主党选民接听了民调电话和短信，而共和党选民仅有12%做出回应。《邮报》承认，这些数字提供了“充分理由怀疑该民调高估了民主党候选人的支持率”。这一关于2026年民调现实的让步，应让每位分析师在引用“民调”之前三思。公众可依赖的可靠数据并不多，但有历史可循。对共和党而言，最类似2026年的年份是2006年，这令人不寒而栗。
While 32% of Kansas Democrats answered the calls and the texts from pollsters, only 12% of the GOP voters did. The Post conceded that these numbers provide "good reason to suspect the poll overestimates Democratic candidates’ support." That concession about the reality of polling in 2026 should give every analyst pause before citing "the polls." There isn’t great public data on which either party can rely, but there is history. For the GOP, the year most analogous to 2026 is 2006, and that’s scary. (The electorate is so different from 1986 that if it rhymes at all, it’s a reach.)
（选民结构与1986年差异巨大，即便有共鸣也是强行附会。）2006年，在小布什总统领导下，共和党遭遇“重创”——这是小布什对当年共和党惨败的称呼——因此，将20年前的结果视为对共和党清晰且现实的危险信号是合理的。
In 2006, Republicans under President George W. Bush took a "thumpin’" — W’s term for the beat down of the GOP that year — so it is rational to consider the results from 20 years ago as a clear and present danger signal for Republicans.
不过，今年与2006年存在一些显著差异，那一年共和党净失6个参议院席位和30个众议院席位。
There are, however, some significant differences between this year and 2006, when the GOP lost a net 6 Senate seats and 30 House seats.
福克斯新闻民调：生活成本担忧拖累共和党中期选举前景 2006年第三季度GDP在当年10月公报为仅1.6%（后修正上调至2%）。今年该数字是其两倍多，10月达到相当健康的3.4%。共和党理应指出经济处于快速起飞模式，选民能感受到这一点，尤其是新就业人群。
FOX NEWS POLL: COST-OF-LIVING CONCERNS WEIGH ON GOP IN MIDTERMS GDP in Q3 of 2006 was reported at just 1.6% in October of that year. (It was revised up to 2% later.) It is more than twice that this year, clocking in October at a very healthy 3.4%. Republicans can rightly point to an economy in rapid takeoff mode and voters feel that, especially the newly employed.
2006年的通胀率为2.1%，现在为3.7%。当时汽油价格为每加仑2.25美元，如今为4.20美元。（两者均为全国平均值。）这些数字正在伤害全国各地的共和党候选人。
Inflation in 2006 was at 2.1%, and it’s at 3.7% now. Gas was $2.25 a gallon then and $4.20 today. (National average in both cases.) Those numbers hurt the GOP candidates across the country.
住房成本也是如此。2006年10月，美国30年期固定利率抵押贷款的平均利率约为6.36%。如今为7.25%。想要购买首套住房或“置换”住房的年轻选民不知道，3%-4%的30年期抵押贷款利率时代只是一个异常现象。他们只知道自己错过了那个窗口期。
As do housing costs. In October 2006, the average U.S. interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was approximately 6.36%. It’s 7.25% today. Younger voters looking to buy their first home or "move-up" don’t know that the era of 3%-4% 30-mortgage rates was an aberration. They just know they missed that window.
理性的选民知道，汽油价格上涨和通胀是因为特朗普总统正在对付伊斯兰共和国伊朗顶层的狂热分子，他们是我国47年来的誓死敌人。自比尔·克林顿以来的每一位总统都曾警告阿亚图拉，如果不停止核计划，武力选项摆在桌面上，但伊朗拒绝这样做，甚至在2025年摧毁其核计划的“午夜锤击行动”单夜空袭之后也是如此。
The rational voter knows the hike in the cost of gas and the inflation is because President Trump is taking on the fanatics atop the Islamic Republic of Iran, our country’s sworn enemy of 47 years. Every president since Bill Clinton has warned the ayatollahs that force was on the table if it did not cease its nuclear program, which it has refused to do even after the one night of strikes that obliterated the program in 2025, the strike deemed "Operation Midnight Hammer."
但这个流氓政权没有领会信息，立即开始重建其破碎的核计划，同时继续支持该地区各地的恐怖分子。自1979年伊斯兰革命以来，伊朗导致1000多名美国人死亡，是全球最大的恐怖主义国家赞助者。如果能让该政权屈服或垮台，那将是特朗普总统最大的成就。
But, the rogue regime didn’t get the message and immediately began rebuilding its shattered nuke program while continuing its support of terrorists around the region. Iran is responsible for the deaths of more than 1,000 Americans since the Islamic revolution of 1979, and is the greatest state sponsor of terror on the planet. If that regime can be cowed or collapsed, it will be President Trump’s greatest accomplishment.
与20年前最大的不同之处，也是共和党人有理由相信2026年可能不会重演2006年的一个原因？二十年前，美国在阿富汗已打了五年仗，在伊拉克打了三年。2006年10月，伊拉克有100多名美军阵亡，阿富汗有10名。当时的报道称这是战争中最致命的月份之一。
The biggest difference from 20 years ago, and one reason for Republicans to believe 2026 may not be a repeat of 2006? Twenty years ago, the U.S. had been at war for five years in Afghanistan and three in Iraq. October 2006 saw more than 100 U.S. military killed in Iraq and 10 in Afghanistan. Contemporary reporting described it as one of the deadliest months of the war.
美国及其战士和军人家庭在2006年付出了极高的代价，且似乎并未取得胜利。尽管尚未在战役中取得决定性胜利，但美国在目前与伊朗的冲突中正处于决定性胜利的地位。只有左派的死忠分子才否认封锁正让伊朗屈服。自2月以来，已有23名现役军人献出了宝贵的生命。盘踞该地区47年的癌症正被连根拔起，代价高昂。
The U.S. and its warriors and its military families were paying a very high price in 2006 and it did not seem that we were winning. The U.S. is decisively winning in the present conflict in Iran though it has not yet decisively won the battle. Only partisans of the left deny the blockade is bringing Iran to its knees. 23 service members have paid the ultimate price since February. The cancer in the region for 47 years is being ripped out and the cost is high.
这些是两位共和党总统执政第六年的统计数据对比，当然，特朗普总统的任期是不连续的。对共和党而言，这项对比中的好消息是，布什总统的第二任期在2005年开局极其糟糕，陷入了特里·夏沃争议、卡特里娜飓风灾难以及社会保障改革失败的泥沼。
Those are the statistical comparisons for two Republican presidents in their sixth year in office, though of course, President Trump’s terms are non-consecutive. The good news for the GOP in the comparison is that President Bush’s second term got off to a terrible start in 2005 with the controversy over Terri Schiavo, Hurricane Katrina and the failed effort to reform Social Security.
特朗普总统回归后的头22个月里，宽开的边境被关闭并保持封锁状态，避免了一次大规模增税，为小费和加班费实施了额外减税，并大幅增加了早就该增加的国防开支。随着联邦政府严厉打击，犯罪率下降，针对警察的战争结束了。DEI（多元、公平与包容）已成死局，民主党人继续推行主流民众视为极端的政策，包括在儿童体育比赛中搞变性别乱象，以及反对选民身份证制度。
President Trump’s first 22 months back saw the wide open border shuttered and kept sealed, a massive tax hike averted, additional tax cuts made for tips and overtime and long overdue hikes in defense spending. Crime is down as the Feds crack down and the war on police is over. DEI is DOA and Dems continue to pursue policies considered extreme by the mainstream, including transgender craziness in sports for kids and objections to voter ID.
还有“候选人素质”今昔对比。2006年当选的民主党参议员包括詹姆斯·韦伯（美国海军陆战队战争英雄）、在依然倾向民主党的俄亥俄州当选的年轻谢罗德·布朗，以及地道的蒙大拿人乔恩·特斯特。
Then there is "candidate quality" then and now. Democratic Senate winners in 2006 included James Webb (USMC war hero), a young Sherrod Brown in a still blue Ohio and John Tester, who was authentically Montana.
今年他们在缅因州推出民社组织（DSA）成员特洛伊·杰克逊（Troy Jackson），在密歇根州推出极端分子阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德（Abdul El-Sayed），在阿拉斯加推出陷入丑闻的玛丽·佩尔托拉（Mary Peltola）。不知该如何称呼詹姆斯·塔拉里科（James Talarico），但他与鲍勃·凯西（Bob Casey Jr.）截然不同，后者曾在2006年于宾夕法尼亚州击败里克·桑托勒姆（Rick Santorum）。
This year they are running DSA’s Troy Jackson in Maine, extremist Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan and scandal-plagued Mary Peltola in Alaska. Not sure what to call James Talarico, but he’s a very different candidate than, say, Bob Casey Jr., who beat Rick Santorum in PA in 2006. (Sherrod Brown is 20 years older and trying a comeback from being fired by Ohio voters two years ago. Brown is looking and sounding like Joe Biden in 2022, and voters know it is a six-year term.)
（谢罗德·布朗（Sherrod Brown）年长20岁，正试图在两年前被俄亥俄州选民“解雇”后东山再起。布朗看起来和听起来都像2022年的乔·拜登（Joe Biden），选民知道这是一个六年任期。）在竞选开支方面：2006年中期选举总开支约为28亿美元。本周期数据尚未出炉，但估计约将花费40亿美元，且共和党拥有显著优势。
On the spending front: Total midterm spending was roughly $2.8 billion in 2006. The numbers are not in yet for this cycle, but the estimates are that approximately $4 billion will be spent and that the GOP has a significant advantage.
2006年10月，布什总统进行了16次竞选露面。特朗普总统则达到30次或更多。
President Bush made 16 campaign appearances in October 2006. President Trump hit 30 or more.
共和党人应为另一个“2006年”做好准备，但如果结果没有那么糟糕也不必惊讶。参议员苏珊·柯林斯（Collins）、迈克·哈斯特德（Husted）、罗杰·马歇尔（Marshall）和丹·沙利文（Sullivan）竞选表现出色。挑战者迈克·罗杰斯（Mike Rogers，密歇根州）和米歇尔·塔福亚（Michele Tafoya，明尼苏达州）是五星级候选人，对手是零星级的民主党人。
CLICK HERE FOR MORE FOX NEWS OPINION GOPers should prep for another 2006, but should not be surprised if the results are not that bad. Senators Collins, Husted, Marshall and Sullivan have run great races. Challengers Mike Rogers in MI and Michele Tafoya in MN are five-star candidates running against 0 star Ds.
选区重划是最后一个变数。“巨大的蓝色浪潮”可能冲刷掉选区重划带来的收获，但话说回来，选民对政治议题的认知程度比以往任何时候都高。“信任人民”丘吉尔的名言，源自其父亲。所以我们都应该如此。
Redistricting is the last wrinkle. A "big blue wave" could wash out the gains the redistricting push brought, but then again, voters are much more aware of political issues today than ever before. "Trust the people" was Churchill’s phrase, which he got from his father. So we all should.
休·休伊特是福克斯新闻撰稿人，也是《休·休伊特秀》的主持人，该节目在东部时间工作日下午3点至6点通过塞勒姆广播网播出，并在塞勒姆新闻频道同步直播。休伊特通过全美400多家联播电台以及SNC可观看的所有流媒体平台，陪伴东海岸美国人下班回家、西海岸美国人共进午餐。他是福克斯新闻频道新闻圆桌节目的常客，该节目由布雷特·拜尔主持，在东部时间工作日晚6点播出。
Hugh Hewitt is a Fox News contributor and host of "The Hugh Hewitt Show" heard weekday afternoons from 3 PM to 6 PM ET on the Salem Radio Network, and simulcast on Salem News Channel. Hugh drives Americans home on the East Coast and to lunch on the West Coast on over 400 affiliates nationwide, and on all the streaming platforms where SNC can be seen. He is a frequent guest on the Fox News Channel’s news roundtable, hosted by Bret Baier weekdays at 6pm ET.
作为俄亥俄州人，休伊特毕业于哈佛学院和密歇根大学法学院，自1996年起担任查普曼大学福勒法学院法学教授，教授宪法课程。休伊特于1990年在洛杉矶开办了以其名字命名的广播节目。他曾频繁出现在所有主要全国性新闻电视网络，为PBS和MSNBC主持过电视节目，为美国所有主要报纸撰稿，撰写过十余本书，并主持过数十场共和党候选人辩论，最近一次是2023年11月在迈阿密举行的共和党总统辩论，以及2015-16周期的四场共和党总统辩论。
A son of Ohio and a graduate of Harvard College and the University of Michigan Law School, Hewitt has been a Professor of Law at Chapman University’s Fowler School of Law since 1996 where he teaches Constitutional Law. Hewitt launched his eponymous radio show from Los Angeles in 1990. Hewitt has frequently appeared on every major national news television network, hosted television shows for PBS and MSNBC, written for every major American paper, has authored a dozen books and moderated a score of Republican candidate debates, most recently the November 2023 Republican presidential debate in Miami and four Republican presidential debates in the 2015-16 cycle.
休伊特将其广播节目和专栏的重点放在宪法、国家安全、美国政治以及克利夫兰布朗队和卫队上。在40年的广播生涯中，休伊特采访过数万位嘉宾，从民主党的希拉里·克林顿和约翰·克里到共和党总统小布什和唐纳德·特朗普。本专栏预览了将驱动其今日广播/电视节目的头条新闻。
Hewitt focuses his radio show and his column on the Constitution, national security, American politics and the Cleveland Browns and Guardians. Hewitt has interviewed tens of thousands of guests from Democrats Hillary Clinton and John Kerry to Republican Presidents George W. Bush and Donald Trump over his 40 years in broadcasting. This column previews the lead story that will drive his radio/ TV show today.