选民即将决定，公众对医疗保健行业的反弹情绪是否会转化为实质性的政策转变。
Voters are about to decide whether public backlash against the health care industry translates into meaningful policy shifts. Why it matters:
为何重要：医疗保健费用从未如此高昂，若无重大干预，费用不会变得更低廉。
Health care has never been more expensive, and it's not going to get any cheaper without significant intervention.
大局观：无论民主党仅在众议院赢得微弱多数，还是在两院均大获全胜，都很难看到民主党在下届国会将医疗保健负担能力列为首要任务。
The big picture: It's hard to see Democrats making health care affordability a top priority in the next Congress, regardless of whether they win only a narrow majority in the House or sweep both chambers in a blowout.
- 但党内在议程上并未达成一致，进步派若表现强劲，可能会将议程向左推动。
• But the party isn't aligned on an agenda, and a strong showing by progressives could drag things leftward.
现实核查：无论胜选规模大小，任何民主党的胜利都将受制于分裂政府的现实，特朗普总统仍将在未来两年执掌白宫。
Reality check: Any Democratic victory — no matter the size — will be tempered by the realities of split government, with President Trump still in office for the next two years.
- 较大的民主党多数席位可能在支出法案或提高债务上限的谈判中带来更大筹码。
• Larger Democratic majorities may bring greater leverage in negotiations over spending packages or raising the debt limit.
- 而最激进的变革很可能留待竞选舞台，届时2028年总统竞选人将开始角逐党内提名。
• And the boldest changes will probably be reserved for the campaign trail, as 2028 presidential contenders begin to vie for the party's nomination.
我们正在关注的焦点：
Here's what we're watching:
“全民医保”与温和派之争：密歇根州参议院竞选——以及缅因州参议院竞选在一定程度上——的结果几乎肯定会塑造进步派在未来两年拥有多大影响力。
Medicare for All vs. moderates: What happens in Michigan's Senate race — and Maine's, to some extent — will almost certainly shape how much sway progressives have in the next two years.
- 民主党人阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德将“全民医保”作为其竞选核心，在一场可能决定明年参议院控制权的竞选中毫不掩饰地支持该主张。
• Democrat Abdul El-Sayed has made Medicare for All central to his campaign, unabashedly supporting the idea in a race that could determine which party has control of the Senate next year.
- 缅因州参议院竞选中的民主党人特罗伊·杰克逊同样如此，尽管杰克逊的全国知名度不如埃尔-赛义德。
• The same is true of Democrat Troy Jackson in Maine's Senate race, though Jackson has a lower national profile than El-Sayed.
- 但寻求就该措施进行表决的“全民医保”支持者面临艰难斗争：尽管该政策在公众中日益流行，但不愿废除私人保险的温和派将构成任何民主党多数派的很大一部分。
• But Medicare for All supporters looking for a vote on the measure face an uphill battle: Despite the policy's growing popularity among the public, moderates unwilling to abolish private insurance will make up a sizable portion of any Democratic majority.
从医从政的医生们：医生成为今年关键竞选中的候选人，问题在于公众信任能在多大程度上转化为选票。
The doctors-turned-politicians: Doctors are on the ballot in key races this year, and the question is how much public trust translates into votes.
- 埃尔-赛义德是一名流行病学家，曾就读医学院但非执业医师，便是一例。
• El-Sayed, an epidemiologist who went to medical school but isn't a practicing physician, is one example.
- 还有儿科医生安妮·安德鲁斯，她在南卡罗来纳州向共和党参议员达琳·格雷厄姆发起了强有力的挑战；以及俄亥俄州州长候选人艾米·阿克顿，她专注于儿科和预防医学。
• There's also pediatrician Annie Andrews, who's mounted a strong challenge to Republican Sen. Darline Graham in South Carolina, and Ohio governor candidate Amy Acton, who has focused on pediatrics and preventive medicine.
- “我们在过去六年多的研究中看到，[医生]是最受信任的潜在竞选人选，毫无争议，”314 Action执行主任埃里克·波利亚克说。
• "We've seen in our research over the last six-plus years that [doctors are] among the most trusted potential candidates for office, hands down," said Erik Polyak, executive director of 314 Action.
“让美国再次健康”运动押注爱荷华州长选举：卫生与公众服务部部长小罗伯特·F·肯尼迪的“让美国再次健康”运动在大选最后几周将注意力主要集中在爱荷华州州长竞选上，全力支持共和党人扎克·拉恩，后者承诺要对抗大型农业利益集团和农用化学品的使用。
MAHA on the line: Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s "Make America Healthy Again" movement has focused its attention largely on the Iowa governor's race in the final weeks of the election, going all in for Republican Zach Lahn, who's pledged to take on Big Agriculture interests and the use of farm chemicals.
- 该运动创始人托尼·莱昂斯对“让美国再次伟大”影响力人物史蒂夫·班农称，这是一场“关乎生存”的投票，这场竞选将“检验在一个州什么是可能的，即我们是否真的能从这些腐败公司、这些腐败政客手中夺回国家，并真正保护民众。”
• Calling it an "existential" vote, MAHA Action founder Tony Lyons told MAGA influencer Steve Bannon that the race will be "the test of what's possible in a state, of whether we can actually take the country back from these corrupt companies, from these corrupt politicians, and really protect people." California's tax plan:
加州财富税提案：金州选民将决定一项有争议的一次性亿万富翁财富税的命运，大部分收入将用于资助医疗服务。
Golden State voters will decide the fate of a controversial one-time wealth tax on billionaires, with most of the proceeds to be used to fund health care services.
- 这笔资金旨在部分弥补共和党削减联邦医疗补助开支造成的缺口，但该税遭到州长加文·纽森反对，后者是2028年民主党总统竞选的潜在角逐者。
• The money is intended to partly make up for Republican cuts to federal Medicaid spending but the tax is opposed by Gov. Gavin Newsom, a likely 2028 Democratic presidential contender.
- 这一措施在最蓝的州之一测试选民情绪，即对超级富豪征税以资助健康福利——这可能成为全国范围内关于扩大联邦政府在医疗保健中的作用及其资金来源辩论的前奏。
• The measure tests voter sentiment in one of the bluest states to tax the super rich in order to fund health benefits — a potential prelude to a national debate over expanding the federal government's role in health care and how to fund it.
堕胎投票提案：四个州的选民将决定各自州内的生殖权利面貌，这是推翻“罗诉韦德案”以来，又一轮通过投票倡议进行堕胎政策制定。
Abortion ballot measures: Voters in four states will determine what reproductive rights in their states look like, another round of post-Roe abortion policymaking via ballot initiatives.
- 内华达州和弗吉尼亚州将审议保护堕胎权的宪法修正案，而密苏里州将权衡一项由州议会支持、旨在废除2024年亲堕胎权修正案的措施。
• Nevada and Virginia will consider constitutional amendments protecting the right to abortion, while Missouri will weigh a measure backed by the state legislature to repeal a 2024 pro-abortion rights amendment.
- 爱达荷州选民将决定一项保障堕胎权直至胎儿具备生存能力（通常认为在怀孕23至24周左右开始，或在医疗紧急情况下在此之后）的州法律的命运。
• Idaho voters will determine the fate of a state law guaranteeing a right to abortion until fetal viability, generally considered to begin around 23 to 24 weeks into a pregnancy, or after that in the case of a medical emergency.