经过数月的竞选和数十亿美元的投入，美国中期选举的投票日终于到来。
After months of campaigning and billions of dollars spent on the US midterms, election day is finally here.
根据最新的民意调查，民主党似乎占据上风——但民调并不总是可靠，今年也可能出现不少令人意外的结果。不过，从大局来看，美国选民表态后可能出现三种结果。
According to the latest public opinion surveys, Democrats appear to have the upper hand - but polls haven't always been reliable, and this year could have its own share of surprising results. In broad strokes, however, there are three possible outcomes after Americans have their say.
以下是对这三种可能结果、结果公布时可能出现的早期迹象，以及对国家可能产生的影响的分析。如果历史具有参考价值，中期选举往往有利于在野党。
Here's a look at what they could be, what the early signs might be as results come in – and what it could mean for the country. If history is any guide, midterm elections tend to favour of the out-of-power party.
加上民调显示总统的支持率处于历史低位，一场与伊朗的战争推高了消费者成本，还有一些有争议的政策——比如激进的移民执法和对数据中心建设的支持——这就构成了所谓“选举海啸”出现的条件。在第一种情形下，巨大的海啸确实发生了。
Add in what polls suggest is a historically unpopular president, a war with Iran that has driven up consumer costs and some controversial policies - like aggressive immigration enforcement and support for data centre construction - and you have the conditions for a so-called electoral wave. In this first scenario, a huge wave is exactly what happens.
民主党不仅可能控制众议院，还可能远超组建多数党所需的218个席位。他们不仅可能赢下选举分析师认为势均力敌的十几场竞选，还可能在更稳固的保守派腹地翻盘夺席。
Democrats could not only take control of the House of Representatives but far surpass the 218 seats needed for a majority. They may win not only the dozen or so races that election analysts rate as too-close-to-call, they could also flip some seats in more solidly conservative terrain.
在参议院，这种情形要求民主党赢下所有或大多数目前被视为势均力敌的竞选，包括一些在传统保守州的竞选。至少会出现一场令人瞠目结舌的胜利，地点可能是一代人来未选出过民主党人的得克萨斯州，或是近百年来未选出过民主党人的堪萨斯州。
In the Senate, this scenario would require Democrats to win all or most of the current crop of races that are toss-ups, including some in traditionally conservative states. There would be at least one eye-popping victory in a place that hasn't elected a Democrat in a generation, Texas, or in nearly a century in the case of Kansas.
如果真是这样，民主党不仅会控制参议院，还会多出一两个席位的优势。这或许能避免围绕阿拉斯加州可能出现的法律挑战引发戏剧性局面，在那里一名法官驳回了特朗普政府就两名丹·沙利文同时出现在选票上提起的诉讼。
If this did happen, Democrats wouldn't just take control of the Senate, they would do so with a seat or two to spare. This might avoid any drama around a potential legal challenge by Republicans in Alaska where a judge dismissed a Trump administration lawsuit over two Dan Sullivans being on the ballot.
民主党可能通过提振本党选民投票率，并以较大优势赢得独立选民支持来实现这一目标。这将扭转特朗普2024年在西班牙裔选民和年轻男性中取得的进展。部分共和党选民也可能转而支持民主党，或者干脆不去投票。
Democrats might accomplish this by boosting turnout of their voters and winning independent voters by sizable margins. This would reverse Trump's 2024 inroads with Hispanic voters and young men. Some Republican voters might also support the Democrats or just stay home.
这种结果将对特朗普及其共和党构成严厉谴责，为未来两年埋下伏笔：一手掌握立法权、重振旗鼓的民主党将与一位极少退让的总统陷入冲突。随着结果陆续出炉，早期迹象显示：如果民主党守住佛罗里达州的重点众议院选战，并在北卡罗来纳州、密歇根州、纽约州、弗吉尼亚州和肯塔基州赢下一些共和党选区；如果他们翻转南卡罗来纳州的参议院席位，那将是民主党的胜利之夜。民调或许不会完全失准，但也未必完全准确。
This kind of a result would represent a stinging rebuke for Trump and his Republican Party, setting up two years of conflict between a newly invigorated Democratic Party with its hands firmly on the lever of legislative power and a president who seldom backs away from a fight. Early signs as the results come in: If Democrats hold targeted House contests in Florida and win some Republican districts in North Carolina, Michigan, New York, Virginia and Kentucky. If they flip the Senate seat in South Carolina, it's going to be a good night for Democrats. Maybe the polls won't be entirely wrong, but not entirely right either.
在这种情况下，民主党虽可能在众议院选战中摘取足够多的“触手可及”的席位从而获得多数，但优势不会太大。
In this scenario, it could be that while they take enough of the low-hanging fruit in the US House contests to deliver a majority, it's not a sizable one.
这意味着众议院民主党领袖将不得不经常与党内左翼和中间派的边缘成员周旋，以确保凑齐足够票数通过立法。
This would mean Democratic leaders in the chamber would regularly have to wrangle with their fringe members on the left and the centre to ensure they have enough votes to pass legislation.
在参议院方面，这一假设情境下民主党仅能翻转一两个席位——例如北卡罗来纳州似乎已近乎板上钉钉——但保守腹地的选战将望尘莫及。
On the Senate side in this hypothetical, the Democrats would just flip a seat or two - North Carolina, for instance, seems all but assured - but the contests in the conservative heartland would prove to be out of reach.
或许他们无法击败顽强求连任的共和党参议员苏珊·柯林斯（缅因州），又或许左翼候选人阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德无法守住密歇根州这个民主党阵地。
Perhaps they're unable to unseat stubbornly resilient Republican Senator Susan Collins in Maine or left-wing candidate Abdul El-Sayed can't keep Michigan in the Democratic column.
或许“双丹·沙利文”争议足以拖垮阿拉斯加州民主党候选人玛丽·佩尔托拉。
Maybe the duelling Dan Sullivans controversy is enough to sink Democratic candidate Mary Peltola in Alaska.
要出现这种“民主党小胜”局面，我们在提前投票中看到的民主党投票热潮，必须在选举日遭遇共和党的投票高潮相抗衡。
For this "Democratic trickle" scenario to unfold, the big Democratic turnout we've seen in early voting would be matched by a Republican surge on election day.
特朗普在共和党红州动员基本盘的努力，可能帮助其党避免最坏情况。民调处于或接近误差范围内的竞选，可能给两党带来好坏参半的结果。结果将是国会分裂——这是政治僵局的根源。
Trump's efforts to rally his base in Republican red states could help his party avoid the worst-case scenario. The races that were at or near the margin of error in polls might provide a mixed bag for both parties. The result would be a divided Congress - and that's a recipe for political gridlock.
如果佛罗里达州全面稳固地保持共和党优势。如果民主党在弗吉尼亚州和宾夕法尼亚州等地赢得一些众议院席位，但全国范围内处于更稳固政治地位的共和党现任议员避免在大选潮中被冲垮。指南：什么是美国中期选举？
If Florida stays comfortably Republican across the board. If Democrats pick up some House seats in places like Virginia and Pennsylvania, but the Republican incumbents on more secure political ground across the country avoid getting washed away in a deluge. GUIDE: What are the US midterms?
深度：美国年轻政客如此之少的真实原因 探索：美国中期选举的胜负手在哪里 核实：特朗普执政下美国经济真实表现如何 这一情景涉及共和党顽强守住国会两院控制权。
IN DEPTH: The real reasons there are so few young US politicians EXPLORE: Where the US midterms will be won and lost VERIFY: How the US economy is really doing under Trump This scenario involves Republicans resiliently holding on to both chambers of Congress.
要实现这一点，此前曾低估特朗普支持率的民调需要出错，且势均力敌的竞选大多需要向共和党倾斜。
For this to happen, the polls - which have previously underestimated Trump's support - need to be wrong and the toss-up races to mostly fall the way of Republicans.
不仅共和党选民必须以意外的惊人数量投票，那些似乎已对特朗普政策感到失望的独立选民和西班牙裔选民，最终也必须转而支持他。
Not only would Republican voters have to turn out in unexpectedly impressive numbers, independent and Hispanic voters who had seemingly soured on Trump's policies would have also to break his way in the end.
在这种情况下，众议院控制权远非民主党的囊中之物，最终可能取决于加利福尼亚州及其长达数天的邮寄选票计票过程。
In this scenario, control of the House, far from being a done deal for Democrats, could end up coming down to California and its extended days-long counting process for mail-in ballots.
最终，共和党可能部分得益于在得克萨斯州、佛罗里达州和北卡罗来纳州等地划定更有利的国会选区线，从而勉强获得微弱的整体多数优势。
In the end, Republicans might eke out a slim overall majority thanks in part to efforts to draw more favourable congressional district lines in places like Texas, Florida and North Carolina.
也可能是共和党赢下所有保守州的参议院竞选，并翻转密歇根州这一原由民主党把持的席位。
It could also be that Republicans win all the Senate contests in the conservative states and they also flip Michigan, a seat that was held by Democrats heading into the vote.
即使共和党无法守住北卡罗来纳州，也无法在由民主党控制的明尼苏达州或新罕布什尔州获胜——这些竞选在今年的选举中仅处于竞争力的边缘——他们至少也可能让民主党候选人捏一把汗。
Even if Republicans don't hold North Carolina or win in Democratic-controlled Minnesota or New Hampshire - races just on the periphery of competitiveness in this year's elections - they may at least make the Democratic candidates sweat.
如果出现这种情况，特朗普可能会在周三上午宣称获得了新的选举授权，并在共和党控制的国会持续支持下，推进其国内和外交政策议程。
If this was to happen, Trump might on Wednesday morning would claim a renewed electoral mandate and push forward with his domestic and foreign policy agenda with the continued support of a Republican Congress.
如果佛罗里达州参议员阿什利·穆迪和俄亥俄州参议员乔恩·赫斯特德顺利连任。如果共和党在宾夕法尼亚州和弗吉尼亚州的众议院竞选中守住现有席位，并在北卡罗来纳州、俄亥俄州和佛罗里达州翻转现任民主党席位。
If Senators Ashley Moody in Florida and Jon Husted in Ohio cruise to re-election. If Republicans hold their own in House races in Pennsylvania and Virginia, and they flip current Democratic seats in North Carolina, Ohio and Florida.
