我在加拿大度过了青年时代，正值皮埃尔·特鲁多执政时期——那是加拿大人真正尊敬的特鲁多——当时我是一名来自香港的高中生。那时，加拿大政治意味着刻意保持与美国的独立。
I came of age in Canada during the Pierre Trudeau years – the Trudeau whom Canadians actually respect – as a high school student from Hong Kong. Back then, Canadian politics meant deliberate independence from the United States.
如今，一些加拿大人，尤其是年轻一代，似乎对总理马克·卡尼感到惊讶。卡尼同属自由党，却在外交、国防和经济政策上走得更独立于美国，同时向欧洲靠拢。这是因为他们成长于美国主导的全球经济秩序中，在那个秩序里，保守党领袖兼总理布赖恩·马尔罗尼和斯蒂芬·哈珀在上述所有关键领域都对美国示好，这是对老特鲁多及其旧式自由党在政治和文化上占据主导地位的一种反弹。
Some Canadians today, especially younger ones, seem amazed that Prime Minister Mark Carney, a Liberal like Trudeau, is charting foreign, defence and economic policies more independent of the US while moving closer to Europe. That is because they grew up in a US-led global economic order in which, in a backlash against the political and cultural dominance of the elder Trudeau and his old-style Liberals, Conservative leaders and prime ministers Brian Mulroney and Stephen Harper deferred to the US in all those key areas.
现任保守党领袖皮埃尔·波利耶夫一度被称为“加拿大的特朗普”，若非美国总统唐纳德·特朗普威胁要把加拿大变成美国第51个州，激怒了加拿大人，他在上届大选中本可能击败卡尼。对我来说，这简直是既视感——卡尼就是皮埃尔·特鲁多的第二部曲。
Pierre Poilievre, the current Conservative Party leader, who was at times dubbed “Canada’s Trump”, might have beaten Carney in the last election had US President Donald Trump not antagonised Canadians by threatening to make their country the 51st US state. For me, it is all deja vu – Carney as Pierre Trudeau part deux.
卡尼既幸运又不幸运。阿尔伯塔省独立公投刚刚以大比分失败告终，全国因此更加团结，这让他能在与欧洲领导人谈判时拥有更强的后盾。
Carney is both luckier and unluckier. He can now negotiate with European leaders with a more unified country behind him, having just seen the independence referendum in Alberta soundly defeated.
为遏制魁北克分离主义，特鲁多推行多元文化政策，并于1982年正式将加拿大宪法从英国剥离，从根本上改变了国家的民族性格和文化特质，无论好坏。
To counter Quebec separatism, Trudeau introduced multiculturalism and formally separated the Canadian Constitution from Britain in 1982, thereby fundamentally changing the national and cultural character of the country, for better or worse.
如果你认为现任白宫对卡尼充满敌意，不妨回顾一下美国前总统理查德·尼克松和罗纳德·里根。尼克松公开表达对特鲁多的厌恶，曾宣称美加特殊关系已死。即便杰拉德·福特对古巴采取更强硬立场，特鲁多仍于1976年访问了这个共产主义国家。
If you think the current White House is hostile to Carney, recall US presidents Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan. Nixon openly disliked Trudeau and once declared the US-Canada special relationship dead. Even as Gerald Ford took a more confrontational stance towards Cuba, Trudeau visited the communist state in 1976.
他早在尼克松历史性访华之前就已承认中国。在埃德加·胡佛执掌联邦调查局期间，该局从20世纪50年代起就对特鲁多设有秘密监视档案，远在他出任总理之前。胡佛曾怀疑特鲁多是隐蔽的共产主义者。
He also recognised China well before Nixon’s historic trip to Beijing. The FBI under J. Edgar Hoover kept a secret surveillance file on Trudeau from the 1950s, well before he became prime minister. Hoover had suspected Trudeau of being a closet communist.
特鲁多有自己的“加拿大优先”版本。他认为外交政策应植根于国内优先事项。这意味着要在与欧洲的关系和与美国的关系之间取得平衡，与今天的卡尼并无不同。特鲁多及其欧洲对话者面临的选择，也与卡尼如今面临的选择相似。
Trudeau had his own version of “Canada first”. He believed foreign policy should be rooted in domestic priorities. That meant balancing ties with Europe against those with the US, not unlike Carney today. The choices confronting Trudeau and his European interlocutors were also similar to those Carney faces.
然而，特鲁多在贸易和防务方面面对的是欧洲真正有建树的政治家：西德总理赫尔穆特·施密特、法国总统瓦莱里·吉斯卡尔·德斯坦，以及欧盟委员会主席弗朗索瓦-格扎维埃·奥托利——一位才华出众的技术官僚和危机管理者。卡尼则要与现任法国总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙、德国总理弗里德里希·默茨、欧盟委员会主席乌尔苏拉·冯德莱恩和欧盟外交政策负责人卡娅·卡拉斯谈判。真是西方衰落啊。
However, Trudeau had genuinely accomplished statesmen in Europe to deal with on trade and defence: Helmut Schmidt, chancellor of West Germany; Valery Giscard d’Estaing, president of France; and Francois-Xavier Ortoli, president of the European Commission, a brilliant technocrat and crisis manager. Carney gets to negotiate with current French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas. Talk about the decline of the West.
特鲁多那一代人不得不面对苏联威胁。这一代人则面临俄罗斯威胁。9月，卡尼在圣皮埃尔和密克隆会见了法国总统，那是法国一个约5500人、常年刮风的群岛。这是加拿大总理首次正式访问该群岛。此次会晤之前，特朗普于9月7日在社交媒体上发布了一张美国国旗覆盖北美和中美洲、加勒比地区及北大西洋的图片。
The Trudeau generation had to confront the Soviet threat. This generation faces the Russian threat. In September, Carney met the French president on Saint-Pierre and Miquelon, a windswept French archipelago of about 5,500 people. It was the first official visit to the islands by a Canadian prime minister. The meeting followed a September 7 social media post by Trump displaying an American flag draped across North and Central America, the Caribbean and the north Atlantic.
上周在蒙特利尔举行的加拿大-欧盟峰会赋予了那次象征性的岛屿会晤更多实质内容。渥太华及其欧洲伙伴希望在防务、关键矿产和制造业方面开展合作。乌克兰的星链风波促使双方寻求美国技术的替代方案。
Last week’s Canada-EU summit in Montreal gave that symbolic island meeting more substance. Ottawa and its European partners want to cooperate on defence, critical minerals and manufacturing. The Starlink fiasco in Ukraine has given both sides an impetus to look for alternatives to US technology.
双方未能就伙伴关系的称呼达成一致。冯德莱恩提出的“准成员资格”在德国提出异议、认为该措辞在法律上毫无意义后，被从联合声明中删除。文本现在表述为“更紧密的联系”。
The two could not agree on what to call their partnership, though. Von der Leyen’s offer of “associate membership” was removed from the joint declaration after Germany objected that the phrase was legally meaningless. The text now speaks of “ever closer association”.
但正如卡尼所说，如果名称不重要，贸易却很重要。欧盟27个成员国中有9个尚未批准十年前与加拿大签署的《全面经济与贸易协定》。美国占加拿大出口总额的约70%，而欧盟仅占加拿大贸易总额的约9%。
But if the name does not matter, as Carney says, trade does. Nine of the EU’s 27 member states have yet to ratify a decade-old trade deal with Canada, the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement. The US takes about 70 per cent of Canadian exports, while the EU makes up only about 9 per cent of Canada’s total trade.
乐观者可以认为，这留下了巨大的贸易拓展空间。悲观者会指出，加拿大无法摆脱北美地理现实。在极其尖锐的谈判之后，加美之间仍未达成贸易协定。特朗普此前曾称欧盟提出让加拿大成为准成员的建议“令人发笑”，并表示如果他将此举解读为“敌对行为”，美国可能会在“许多方面”停止与欧洲贸易。
The optimist can argue this leaves much more room to expand trade. The pessimist will point out that Canada cannot escape North American geography. After highly acrimonious negotiations, there is still no Canada-US trade deal in place. Trump previously called the EU’s proposal to make Canada an associate member “laughable” and said that if he interpreted the move as a “hostile act”, the US might stop trading with Europe “on many things”.
加拿大寻求与欧洲建立伙伴关系合情合理，但华盛顿视其为挑衅。随着世界秩序瓦解，加拿大历史重演——但愿不至于沦为闹剧。
Canada’s pursuit of partnership with Europe is sensible, but Washington sees it as a provocation. As the world order crumbles, Canadian history repeats itself – hopefully not as farce.