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黑利·史蒂文斯风波后,阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德在卡尔希的胜算大幅上升Abdul El-Sayed soars in Kalshi odds after Haley Stevens fallout

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国会众议员海莉·史蒂文斯(Haley Stevens)背书迈克·罗杰斯(Mike Rogers)引发的余波非同寻常,但这也让阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德(Abdul El-Sayed)受益。

The fallout from Congresswoman Haley Stevens’s endorsement of Mike Rogers has been extraordinary, but it has also been a benefit to Abdul El-Sayed.

预测市场持续看好埃尔-赛义德。到周一上午,Kalshi 的市场显示他的胜率约为 78% 至 79%。这些数字并非民调,市场也会波动,但它们当然不表明史蒂文斯的背书从根本上改变了市场对这场竞选的评估。

Prediction markets have continued to price El-Sayed favorably. Kalshi’s market showed him around 78 to 79 percent by Monday morning. Those numbers are not polling, and markets fluctuate, but they certainly don’t suggest Stevens’s endorsement has fundamentally changed the market’s assessment of the race.

随后竞选资金如潮水般涌入。请看 MSNBC 执行制片人凯尔·格里芬(Kyle Griffin)在 X 平台上的帖子:“据埃尔-赛义德竞选团队称,周日筹得超过 240 万美元,创下其单日筹款新高。超过 6.5 万名捐赠者参与捐款,平均捐款额为 36.74 美元。近 3 万名为首次捐赠者。”在一场政治大戏的中途,这番筹款反应着实非同寻常。但这种适得其反的局面,加上这一重大决定推出时的混乱无序,让人不禁担心海莉·史蒂文斯是否安好。

Then the money came rolling in. Check out this X post from MSNOW executive producer Kyle Griffin: “According to El-Sayed’s campaign, Sunday brought in more than $2.4 million, its biggest fundraising day yet. More than 65,000 donors contributed, with an average donation of $36.74. Nearly 30,000 were first-time donors.”That’s some pretty remarkable fundraising response in the middle of a political melodrama. But the way this has backfired and the unorganized rollout of this dramatic decision makes me wonder if Haley Stevens is OK.

《新共和》(The New Republic)刊登标题为“海莉·史蒂文斯的朋友和幕僚对其未婚夫感到恐慌”的报道,详述了据称来自她核心圈子人士的担忧,涉及杰森·土耳其(Jason Turkish)及其对这位女众议员的影响力。

The New Republic published a headline reading: “Haley Stevens’s Friends and Staffers Are Freaked Out by Her Fiancé,” detailing concerns allegedly raised by people in her inner circle about Jason Turkish and his influence over the congresswoman.

密歇根大学校董、史蒂文斯的朋友乔丹·阿克尔(Jordan Acker)公开表示,他对土耳其据称对待史蒂文斯幕僚、朋友和盟友的方式“深感不安”。阿克尔还称无法联系上史蒂文斯,因为土耳其拿走了她的手机。他还写道:“我听到关于他对待海莉的幕僚、朋友和盟友方式的严重担忧。我自己的经历只会加深这些担忧。”我们不清楚他们私下关系究竟如何,但这些指控令人不安,如果史蒂文斯要做出如此重大的决定,理应做好解释的准备。

Michigan University regent Jordan Acker, a friend of Stevens, publicly said he was “deeply troubled” by Turkish’s alleged treatment of Stevens’s staff, friends and allies. Acker also claimed he couldn’t reach Stevens because Turkish had taken her phone. He also wrote: “I’ve heard serious concerns about his treatment of Haley’s staff, friends, and allies. My own experiences have only deepened those concerns.”We have no idea what’s happening privately in their relationship, but these are uncomfortable allegations, and if Stevens was going to make a decision this consequential, you’d think she’d be prepared to explain it.

然而,请看她在 CNN 节目中与安德森·库珀(Anderson Cooper)的这段对话:斯蒂文斯:“我们都希望民主党人获胜,我是一名非常自豪的民主党人,顺便说一句,阿卜杜尔得到了其他所有民主党人的支持。”

Instead, watch this exchange with Anderson Cooper on CNN: STEVENS: “We all want Democrats to win, I’m a really proud Democrat, and by the way, Abdul has every other Democrat with him.”

库珀:“我只是想知道发生了什么变化——人们会改变主意,我只是想知道到底变了什么。”

COOPER: “I’m just wondering what changed — people change their mind, I’m just wondering what changed.”

斯蒂文斯:“这关乎阿卜杜尔变得越来越愤怒,并说我不想要这些人在我的竞选团队里。”

STEVENS: “This is about Abdul getting angrier and angrier and saying I don’t want these people in my campaign.”

库珀:“但他从午夜到今天早上并没有变得更愤怒,一定是什么改变了你的想法——是否有催眠般的因素?”斯蒂文斯:“嗯,安德森,你肯定没有在午夜和我通电话。”

COOPER: “But he didn’t get angrier from midnight to this morning, something changed your mind — was there a soporific aspect?”STEVENS: “Well, Anderson, you certainly weren’t on the phone with me at midnight.”

正如亚伦·鲁帕尔在X上所言,这看似是一场“精神崩溃”。她无法解释观点转变的原因,除了声称阿卜杜尔·埃尔-赛义德有“愤怒”之外,无法指出具体事情,也无法描述这种愤怒是什么,以及在过去48小时里如何显现、从而让她改变主意。

As Aaron Rupar put on X, this was a “seemingly mental breakdown.”She could not explain the change in perspective and point to specific things besides “anger” she says Abdul El-Sayed has without describing what that anger is and how it showed up in the past 48 hours that made her change her mind.

斯蒂文斯在初选期间得到了舒默的支持。人们对舒默在初选后犹豫是否支持埃尔-赛义德感到不满。但在斯蒂文斯背书罗杰斯后,舒默称此举为“卑鄙的背叛”。杰弗里斯和其他民主党领袖也纷纷站在埃尔-赛义德身后,重申对党内提名人的支持。因此,她的决定产生了与初衷相反的效果。

Stevens was backed by Chuck Schumer during the primary. Folks were upset with Schumer for his hesitancy on supporting El-Sayed after the primaries. But after Stevens’s endorsement of Rogers, Schumer called the move a “despicable betrayal.”Hakeem Jeffries and other Democratic leaders have also rallied behind El-Sayed, reaffirming their support for the party’s nominee. So her decision has the opposite effect that she intended.

这个花费数月在内部分歧中挣扎的政党,如今正在一位候选人周围呈现出更为统一的阵线——正是她撤回支持的那位候选人。

The party that has spent months wrestling with internal divisions is now presenting a much more unified front around one candidate — the candidate she has pulled support from.

这能否改变今晚的选情仍有待观察。但斯蒂文斯的决定确实改变了舆论话题,并意外地让民主党人团结在阿卜杜尔·埃尔-赛义德周围。

Whether this changes votes tonight remains to be seen. But Stevens’s decision has certainly changed the conversation and, unexpectedly, brought Democrats together around Abdul El-Sayed.

林赛·格兰杰是NewsNation撰稿人,也是《国会山报》评论节目《崛起》的联合主持人。本专栏为其电视评论的编辑版记录。

Lindsey Granger is a NewsNation contributor and co-host of The Hill’s commentary show “Rising.”This column is an edited transcription of her on-air commentary.

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