Hong Kong’s primary and secondary private residential property sales fell in October compared to the previous month, as the expectation of an interest rate increase by year-end draws nearer, according to new market research.

Conducted by Centaline Property, the research indicated that Hong Kong recorded 1,410 first-hand private residential property transactions in October, with a total transaction value of HK$18.66 billion (US$2.38 billion).

This represented a decline of 5.8 per cent and 12.1 per cent, respectively – from the 1,497 transactions and HK$21.24 billion recorded in September.

For the secondary private residential market, October saw 2,864 transactions totalling HK$24.25 billion – a decline of 5.3 per cent in volume and 1.7 per cent in value compared to the 3,023 transactions and HK$24.68 billion recorded in September, the research showed.

According to earlier data from Centaline, Hong Kong’s property market saw a brief upturn in September, with both the volume and value of primary and secondary residential transactions rebounding from a summer slump.

“Although banks in Hong Kong have not followed suit after the Federal Reserve announced a 0.25 percentage point interest rate hike in September, there remains a possibility that interest rates will rise later this year that leads prospective buyers to adopt a ‘wait-and-see’ approach,” said Roen Yeung Ming-yee, senior associate director of the research department at Centaline Property.

Furthermore, the launch of new first-hand projects at a low price level had captured market attention, she added, noting that a cautious stance among secondary-market buyers led to a slowdown in secondary-market transactions. The number of mortgage registrations had also declined in line with the drop in property market transaction volume.

According to the latest data from mReferral Mortgage Brokerage Services, there were 5,376 mortgage registrations for completed properties in October – a 28.6 per cent decrease from the 7,526 recorded in September, marking the second consecutive monthly decline.

Meanwhile, mortgage registrations for properties under construction totalled 269 for the month, down 55.4 per cent from 603 in September.

Norry Lee, senior director of projects strategy and consultancy at JLL in Hong Kong, said the strong subscription levels recorded by recent launches should not be interpreted as the start of a broad-based market rally.

“Rather, they reflect developers’ willingness to prioritise sales velocity, inventory reduction and capital recycling through competitive pricing amid an uncertain interest rate environment,” he explained.

Eric Tso, chief vice-president at mReferral Mortgage Brokerage Services, said that the overall property market sentiment is expected to gradually recover, and the mortgage market is likely to maintain a stable trend.

Looking ahead, the mass residential sector is poised for a distinct “volume-led, price-capped” dynamic through the end of the year, said Cathie Chung, senior director of research at JLL.

“While aggressive primary launch strategies are set to drive a Q4 transaction peak, broader capital values will remain disciplined, keeping full-year price growth firmly aligned with JLL’s 5 to 10 per cent forecast,” she said.

Ultimately, this late-2026 sales push signals a healthy, liquidity-driven stabilisation, where developers clear high inventory levels while capital values settle into a “sustainable range-bound base”, Chung added.