据《决策数据总部》（DDHQ）预测，民主党州参议员莎拉·特龙·加里奥特将击败共和党众议员扎克·纳恩（Zach Nunn），使爱荷华州第3国会选区在两届共和党控制后重新回归民主党。特龙·加里奥特是来自西得梅因的一名路德宗牧师，她在包含得梅因及达拉斯县快速发展的郊区的摇摆选区中，击败了这位两届现任议员。
Democratic state Sen. Sarah Trone Garriott is projected to defeat Rep. Zach Nunn (R-Iowa), according to Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ), flipping Iowa’s 3rd Congressional District back to Democrats after two terms of Republican control. Trone Garriott, a Lutheran minister from West Des Moines, unseated the two-term incumbent in a purple district that includes Des Moines and the fast-growing suburbs of Dallas County.
DDHQ预测，在东部标准时间晚上11点22分、88%的选票已计票时，加里奥特以9个百分点的优势击败纳恩。纳恩于2022年首次为共和党赢得该席位，以不到一个百分点的微弱优势击败前众议员辛迪·阿克斯内（Cindy Axne，民主党-爱荷华州）。他在2024年以近4个百分点的优势击败民主党人兰康·巴卡姆（Lancon Baccam），连任第二届，而当年特朗普总统在该选区以4.5个百分点的优势获胜。
DDHQ projected that Garriott beat Nunn by 9 percentage points with 88 percent of the vote counted at 11:22 p.m. EST. Nunn first flipped the seat for Republicans in 2022, narrowly ousting former Rep. Cindy Axne (D-Iowa) by less than a percentage point. He secured a second term in 2024 against Democrat Lancon Baccam by nearly 4 percentage points in a district President Trump carried by 4.5 points that same year.
尽管纳恩此前获胜，但该选区仍是爱荷华州四个国会席位中共和党最难守住的选区之一，也是一个主要战场，尤其是在民主党在中期选举前获得势头之际。非党派选举预测机构库克政治报告（Cook Political Report）在10月将该竞选从“摇摆”调整为“微占优势民主党”，理由是尽管纳恩作为现任议员实力强劲，但他面临艰难的政治环境，且特龙·加里奥特在民调中占优。
Despite Nunn’s previous victories, the district remained one of the most difficult of Iowa’s four congressional seats for Republicans to hold and a major battleground, particularly as Democrats gained momentum heading into the midterm elections. The nonpartisan election handicapper Cook Political Report moved the race from “toss up” to “lean Democrat” in October, citing the difficult political environment facing Nunn despite his strength as an incumbent and Trone Garriott’s polling advantage.
在竞选最后几周，纳恩试图与特朗普保持距离，尽管获得了特朗普的背书，他投票赞成一项战争权力决议，该决议将限制总统在未经国会批准的情况下对伊朗进行军事行动。他还提出一项阻止牛肉进口的法案，在贸易政策上与政府决裂。自2021年起在爱荷华州参议院任职的特龙·加里奥特在竞选期间筹款超过纳恩。她在中期选举最后几周筹得近810万美元，而纳恩筹得610万美元。
In the final weeks of the campaign, Nunn sought to distance himself from Trump despite receiving his endorsement, voting in favor of a war powers resolution that would limit the president’s military operations against Iran without congressional approval. He also introduced a bill blocking beef imports, breaking with the administration on trade policy. Trone Garriott, who served in the Iowa Senate since 2021, outraised Nunn during the campaign. She brought in nearly $8.1 through the final weeks of the midterm election, compared with Nunn’s $6.1 million.
民主党人攻击纳恩接受企业政治行动委员会捐款，播出广告指控他获得中国公司的资金支持。与此同时，共和党人将攻击重点放在特龙-加里奥特在爱荷华州参议院的记录上，特别是她反对禁止为未成年人提供性别肯定医疗保健的立法。特龙-加里奥特也发布了自己的广告予以回击，其中一则广告中她说她反对“让男人进入女士更衣室”。这位民主党人将医疗保健和可负担性作为竞选核心议题，批评纳恩支持共和党的大规模减税和支出法案，并警告该法案的医疗补助条款将损害爱荷华州农村社区。
Democrats attacked Nunn over his corporate PAC donations, airing s accusing him of receiving financial support from Chinese-owned companies. Republicans, meanwhile, focused their attacks on Trone Garriot’s record in the Iowa Senate, particularly her vote against legislation banning gender-affirming health care for minors. Trone Garriott had responded with s of her own pushing back on the criticism, including one in which she said she opposed “letting men in women’s locker rooms.”The Democrat made healthcare and affordability central issues in her campaign, criticizing Nunn’s support for Republicans’ sweeping tax and spending law and warning that its Medicaid provisions would hurt rural communities in Iowa.