在被连续几个选举周期认定为红州之后，艾奥瓦州重新回到了华盛顿权力争夺的中心。
After being written off as a red state for a couple of election cycles, Iowa is back at the center of the battle for power in Washington.
自2023年以来，共和党一直占据着鹰眼州全部四个美国众议院席位。然而，第一、第二和第三选区可能会在11月3日翻盘，这意味着民主党通往多数党的道路要经过艾奥瓦州。自劳动节以来，全国性预测机构已上调了这三场竞选中民主党的前景。因此，尽管艾奥瓦州媒体市场的广告费用相对较低，这三场竞选仍跻身外部支出最高的30个国会选区竞选之列，这并不令人意外。
Republicans have held all four U.S. House seats in the Hawkeye State since 2023. The 1st, 2nd and 3rd Districts, however, could flip on Nov. 3, meaning the path to a Democratic majority runs through Iowa. National forecasters have upgraded Democratic prospects in all three races since Labor Day. It’s no surprise, then, that despite relatively low advertising costs in Iowa’s media markets, those three campaigns rank among the top 30 congressional races for outside spending.
在第一选区——覆盖艾奥瓦州东南部大部分地区——共和党现任议员玛丽安内特·米勒-米克斯处境艰难。她在2020年的首次胜利是全美最接近的众议院选举：在约39.4万张选票中仅以六票之差获胜。两年前，她以799票的优势——不到0.2个百分点——赢得了第三个任期，而唐纳德·特朗普在该选区以约8.5个百分点的优势获胜。
In the 1st District, covering much of southeast Iowa, GOP incumbent Mariannette Miller-Meeks is in trouble. Her first victory, in 2020, was the closest U.S. House race in the entire country: a six-vote margin out of about 394,000 ballots cast. Two years ago, she won a third term by 799 votes — less than 0.2 percentage points — in a district Donald Trump carried by about 8.5 points.
民主党团体立即表示，米勒-米克斯将成为2026年的首要目标，而她再次面对的是在2024年几乎将她拉下马的民主党人克里斯蒂娜·博汉南。
Democratic groups immediately signaled Miller-Meeks would be a top target for 2026, and she is again facing Democrat Christina Bohannan, who nearly unseated her in 2024.
博汉南将艾奥瓦州工薪阶层不断上涨的生活成本与米勒-米克斯的投票联系起来——后者投票允许特朗普的关税和对伊朗的战争继续下去。这一策略似乎正在奏效。在今年以来投入数百万美元助推米勒-米克斯的竞选之后，一些与共和党结盟的超级政治行动委员会最近削减了在该选区的广告，将资金重新部署到艾奥瓦州的其他竞选。以中间派身份参选、走乔·曼钦路线的独立候选人迈克尔·布里奇福德，可能从米勒-米克斯那里拉走的支持多于从博汉南那里。
Bohannan has tied rising costs for working Iowans to Miller-Meeks’ votes to allow Trump’s tariffs and war in Iran to continue. The strategy seems to be working. After pouring millions into boosting Miller-Meeks’ campaign this year, some GOP-aligned super PACs recently cut their ads in the district, redeploying funds to other Iowa races. Independent candidate Michael Bridgford, running as a centrist in the Joe Manchin mold, may be pulling more support from Miller-Meeks than from Bohannan.
米勒-米克斯最大的希望在于该选区六个规模较小的工薪阶层城市，这些城市在特朗普时代一直倾向共和党。整整一年来，这位现任议员一直强调自己投票支持对小费和加班费免税。本月，她试图将一项拟在该州东南角附近建设的150亿美元钢铁厂项目归功于自己。
The best hope for Miller-Meeks lies in the district’s half-dozen smaller working-class cities, which have trended Republican during the Trump era. All year, the incumbent has emphasized her vote for no taxes on tips and overtime. This month, she has tried to take credit for a proposed $15 billion steel mill near the state’s southeast corner.
就博哈南而言，她将得到艾奥瓦州民主党人自巴拉克·奥巴马2012年竞选连任以来所见到的最强有力的“催票”行动的助力。她尤其需要在深蓝色的艾奥瓦城都市区和艾奥瓦州与伊利诺伊州交界处摇摆不定的四城地区获得高投票率。
Bohannan, for her part, will get a boost from the strongest “get out the vote” effort that Iowa Democrats have seen since Barack Obama’s 2012 re-election campaign. She will need particularly high turnout in the deep-blue Iowa City metro area and the swingy Quad Cities along the Iowa-Illinois border.
虽然第一选区长期以来一直被预期竞争激烈，但全国政治观察人士迟迟没有注意到第二选区——覆盖艾奥瓦州东北部——正在酝酿的激烈选情。该席位之所以空缺，是因为已连任三届的共和党现任议员阿什利·欣森正在竞选美国参议员。由于欣森的表现通常优于总统候选人票的得票率，许多人误以为该席位稳属共和党。
While the 1st District was long expected to be competitive, national political observers were slow to pick up on the close race brewing in the 2nd District, covering northeast Iowa. The seat is open because three-term GOP incumbent Ashley Hinson is running for U.S. Senate. Since Hinson has typically outperformed the top of the ticket, many people mistakenly saw the seat as safely red.
趋势线仍然有利于共和党：在上次总统选举中，特朗普以约10个百分点的优势拿下该选区。艾奥瓦州东北部的几个县从2012年支持奥巴马到2024年支持特朗普，出现了40个百分点或以上的摆动。
The trend lines still favor Republicans: Trump carried the district by about 10 points in the last presidential race. Several northeast Iowa counties saw swings of 40 points or more from Obama in 2012 to Trump in 2024.
但特朗普+10的优势仅比艾奥瓦州第一选区略偏红。而今年的共和党提名人乔·米切尔在该地区缺乏深厚根基，他在去年9月发起竞选前才刚刚搬到这里。相比之下，欣森在竞选州议员以及后来竞选国会议员之前，曾在锡达拉皮兹市场担任电视记者和主播约十年。
But Trump +10 is only slightly redder than Iowa’s 1st District. And this year’s GOP nominee Joe Mitchell lacks deep roots in the area, having just moved there before launching his campaign last September. In contrast, Hinson spent about a decade as a TV reporter and anchor in the Cedar Rapids market before running for the state legislature and later for Congress.
米切尔正以一套非传统的政纲参选，支持任期限制，并谴责企业政治行动委员会捐款和国会议员炒股。与一些摇摆选区的共和党人不同，他拥抱了特朗普。上周在一场集会上，他甚至授予总统“世纪人物”奖。
Mitchell is running on an unconventional platform, backing term limits and denouncing corporate PAC contributions and congressional stock trading. Unlike some Republicans in swing districts, he has embraced Trump. He even gave the president a “man of the century” award at a rally last week.
民主党候选人林赛·詹姆斯是来自迪比克的州议员，这与2018年为民主党翻转爱荷华州东北部众议院席位的艾比·芬克瑙尔颇为相似。詹姆斯是一位被按立的长老会牧师兼随军牧师，她在竞选信息中突出了自己的信仰价值观。詹姆斯需要在包含锡达拉皮兹、迪比克和滑铁卢的最大几个县取得大幅优势，才能抵消共和党在该选区农村地区的优势。
Democratic nominee Lindsay James is a state lawmaker from Dubuque, much like Abby Finkenauer, the Democrat who flipped northeast Iowa’s House seat in 2018. An ordained Presbyterian minister and chaplain, James has highlighted her faith values in her campaign messaging. James will need big margins in the largest counties, containing Cedar Rapids, Dubuque and Waterloo, to counteract the Republican edge in rural parts of the district.
而如果选情非常接近，选票上的另外两名候选人——正在开展进步民粹主义竞选的无党派人士戴夫·布肖和自由意志党人里克·斯图尔特——可能会拉走足够多的选民，从而改变结果。
And if the race is very close, two other candidates on the ballot — independent Dave Bushaw, who is running a progressive populist campaign, and libertarian Rick Stewart — could peel off enough voters to change the outcome.
第3国会选区以得梅因都会区为核心，过去二十年来几乎每次选举都是战场。该选区的前一版本在2018年由红转蓝。四年前，扎克·纳恩又将其翻回共和党阵营。
The 3rd Congressional District, anchored in the Des Moines metro area, has been a battleground almost every election for the past two decades. The previous version of the district went from red to blue in 2018. Zach Nunn flipped it back to the GOP column four years ago.
我长期以来一直觉得这个选区今年有望再次翻转。它是该州四个选区中共和党倾向最弱的一个，而纳恩并没有超额表现的历史记录。2022年，在民主党投票率低迷的情况下，他勉强击败了现任议员辛迪·阿克斯内。两年后，选民以4个百分点的优势再次选举纳恩，这与特朗普在该选区对卡玛拉·哈里斯的优势大致相当。近期每一项爱荷华州民调都显示，总统在全州范围内的支持率处于水下，这表明他在第3选区极不受欢迎。
I have long felt this district was poised to flip again this year. It is the the least Republican-leaning of the state’s four districts, and Nunn does not have a track record of overperformance. He barely defeated incumbent Cindy Axne amid poor Democratic turnout in 2022. Two years later, voters re-elected Nunn by a 4-point margin, about the same as Trump’s advantage over Kamala Harris in the district. Every recent Iowa poll suggests the president’s approval is underwater statewide, which suggests he is deeply unpopular in the 3rd District.
纳恩需要右翼选民——他们仍然支持特朗普——的高投票率，同时又不疏远那些对总统已经反感的选民。结果是一种尴尬的平衡术。一方面，副总统JD·万斯5月为纳恩领衔了一场集会，国防部长皮特·赫格塞斯8月与他一同出席了一场筹款活动。但纳恩在9月改变了自己在一项战争权力决议上的投票，如今在电视广告和公开露面中强调自己的两党合作工作。
Nunn needs strong turnout from voters on the right, who still back Trump, while not alienating constituents who have soured on the president. The result is an awkward balancing act. On one hand, Vice President JD Vance headlined a rally for Nunn in May, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth appeared with him at an August fundraiser. But Nunn switched his vote on a war powers resolution in September and now emphasizes his bipartisan work in TV ads and public appearances.
民主党挑战者莎拉·特罗恩·加里奥特既是一位被按立的信义会牧师，也是一位坚韧不拔的竞选者。她已在倾向投票给特朗普的郊区选区赢下三场州参议院选举。她的首要议题包括医疗保健可及性、打击华盛顿腐败以及深入选民之中。特罗恩·加里奥特经常提到，纳恩在国会四年间从未举办过一场公开的市政厅会议，而她已在全部21个县举办过公开活动。
Democratic challenger Sarah Trone Garriott is both an ordained Lutheran minister and a tenacious campaigner. She has won three state Senate races in suburban districts that voted for Trump. Her top issues include access to healthcare, taking on Washington corruption and showing up for voters. Trone Garriott often mentions that Nunn has not held a single public town hall during his four years in Congress, while she has held public events in all 21 counties.
第3选区约75%的选票将来自波尔克县和达拉斯县，这两个县涵盖得梅因及其大部分郊区。民主党在这两个县组织良好。纳恩需要在选区其余地区大幅拉开差距。我将密切关注瓦佩洛县的计票结果，该县是选区第三大县。这个县几十年来一直是民主党票仓，过去15年却逐渐倾向共和党。但奥特姆瓦一家内科诊所的关闭——被归因于《一个大而美的法案》中的医疗补助削减——已成为当地重大新闻，这对纳恩不利。
About 75% of the votes in the 3rd District will come from Polk and Dallas counties, which cover Des Moines and most of its suburbs. Democrats are well-organized in both counties. Nunn needs to run up the score in the rest of the district. I’ll be watching results closely in Wapello County, the district’s third-largest county. A Democratic stronghold for generations, the county has trended Republican over the past 15 years. But the closure of an internal medicine in Ottumwa, attributed to Medicaid cuts in the One Big Beautiful Bill, has been a major local news story that won’t help Nunn.
这些选区的竞争性也为其他州提供了借鉴。艾奥瓦州有三个选区存在竞争，而在许多更大的州，选区结果几乎早已注定。即便艾奥瓦州在选票顶端看起来不太像摇摆州，我们也一直有一些势均力敌的联邦众议院选举。
The competitiveness of these districts also offers a lesson for other states. Iowa has three districts in play, yet in many larger states, the districts are all but foregone conclusions. Even when Iowa hasn’t looked much like a swing state at the top of the ballot, we’ve always had some targeted U.S. House races.
为什么？因为上世纪70年代，艾奥瓦州采用了全国最好的选区重划制度之一。根据州法律，“不得为偏袒某一政党、现任州议员或国会议员、或其他个人或团体，或为增强或削弱某一语言或少数族裔群体的投票力量而划分选区。”该法律设有防护条款，以防止“拆分”、“打包”及其他党派操弄手段。
Why? Because in the 1970s, Iowa adopted one of the best redistricting systems in the country. By state law, “No district shall be drawn for the purpose of favoring a political party, incumbent legislator or member of Congress, or other person or group, or for the purpose of augmenting or diluting the voting strength of a language or racial minority group.”The law has guardrails to prevent “cracking,” “packing” and other partisan games.
如果每个州都采用爱荷华州的方式绘制政治地图，数十个众议院席位将变得竞争激烈。数百万美国人将有机会决定哪个政党控制国会。目前，爱荷华州居民将继续发挥超越其人口规模的影响力。
If every state drew political maps the Iowa way, dozens more House seats would be up for grabs. Millions more Americans would have a chance to determine which party controls Congress. For now, Iowans will continue to punch above their weight.