Getty Images On the eve of the election, Democrats appear within striking distance of winning the Senate majority, but many seats in play are in toss-up territory in deep-red states that could still break in either party’s direction.

Democrats have expanded the map in ways few predicted at the start of the year, and the national environment has seemed to favor the party for many months. President Donald Trump’s approval rating sits at 34%, according to CNN’s Poll of Polls average, and voter frustration on the economy, the Iran war and corruption appears to be driving Democratic energy across the country.

And for the second time this year , CNN is expanding its list to reflect that.

This list has expanded to 11 seats to add South Carolina, a red state that has grown competitive in late polling. Texas and Kansas – two other seats few envisioned being on the battleground map in January – have moved up in their positions.

Sen.Darline Graham, during a Senate Judiciary Committee hearing to examine former special counsel Jack Smith's investigations into President Donald Trump, on September 29, 2026. Aaron Schwartz/Bloomberg/Getty Images Democrats will need to flip four Republican-held seats while holding onto all their own to win the Senate majority this year.

And Republicans are spending heavily to defend their Senate majority, fueled by President Donald Trump’s political network as well as tech titan Elon Musk . Over the final month of the midterms, Republicans are outspending Democrats on advertising in the 11 races on this list: $560 million to $521 million, according to AdImpact data. Excluding Georgia and North Carolina – where Republicans have all but waved the white flag – the gap is significantly larger, about $550 million to $469 million.

Our ranking of the seats most likely to flip in November is based on CNN reporting, including conversations with strategists involved in Senate races, as well as our analysis of candidate fundraising, polling and the partisan environment in the states. The final ranking is not a prediction of who will win individual races or which party will secure control of the US Senate, but they offer a snapshot of where the contests stand as the midterm campaign season ends.

North Carolina is the Senate seat most likely to flip on Tuesday, with Democrats appearing on track to win their first Senate race in the state since 2008. Democrat Roy Cooper, the state’s former governor, was leading GOP Senate nominee Michael Whatley by 14 points among likely voters in a final poll from High Point University/YouGov .

No one is expecting a Democratic margin of victory to be that large in a state Trump won three times. But aware of the issues here, Republicans have pulled back on spending in the final stretch. Democrats spent $10.4 million over the last two weeks compared to $2.5 million from the GOP.

The CNN Poll of Polls average shows former Sen. Sherrod Brown leading GOP Sen. Jon Husted by 5 points, 50% to 45%.

Brown, who lost his bid for a fourth Senate term in 2024, moved early to define Husted, who was appointed to the seat vacated by Vice President JD Vance. Democrats have hit Husted hard on data centers, the Epstein files, and corruption. Their most-run ad in the final two weeks reminded voters of Husted’s connection to an energy scandal in the state.

President Donald Trump listens as Sen. Jon Husted, speaks at a campaign rally in Youngstown, Ohio, on October 12. Gene J. Puskar/AP/File Sherrod Brown speaks during a campaign rally at Central Midwest Regional Council of Carpenters in Toledo, Ohio, on October 17. Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images The top Republican ad during that same period focused on Brown’s stances on taxes and immigration.

Ohio’s Senate race has seen the second most spending this cycle, and Republicans outspent Democrats by about $141 million to $102 million in October, according to AdImpact data.

Ohio has trended rightward in the Trump era, and the president traveled to the state three times in the final month to help get Husted across the finish line. But his most widely circulated comments from these rallies focused more on complimenting Husted’s body than issues impacting voters.

Ohio’s race for governor attracted heightened attention in the closing stretch as GOP gubernatorial nominee Vivek Ramaswamy ran a controversial ad featuring the estranged mother of Amy Acton, his Democratic opponent. Acton has led Ramaswamy in recent polls, further suggesting the landscape might be ripe for Democratic wins on Tuesday.

Texas hasn’t elected a Democrat statewide in 32 years and a CNN Poll of Polls shows no clear leader in the race between James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton.

But a perfect storm of conditions may converge to make the Democratic dream of turning Texas blue a reality, even as the red nature of the state and the onslaught of GOP spending could lead to Democratic heartbreak once again.

A CNN Poll of Polls average shows no clear leader in the contest, but a pair of polls released in the last few days – including one from the New York Times/Siena and another from CNN – show Talarico performing ahead of Paxton, outside the margin of error.

The CNN poll conducted by SSRS last month found the Democrat was benefiting from deeply negative impressions of Paxton and significant support among the Black, Latino and Asian voters in the state who turned toward Trump in 2024.

Fueled by strong fundraising, Talarico dominated the airwaves for the summer months after Paxton’s defeat of GOP Sen. John Cornyn, who warned of a “massacre” for Republican candidates in Texas if the state’s embattled attorney general was the nominee.

Texas Republican Senate candidate, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, speaks during the 2026 Republican National Convention on September 9 in Dallas, Texas. Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images Democratic US Senate candidate James Talarico speaks during a campaign rally in in Kerrville, Texas, on August 31. Brandon Bell/Getty Images/File The GOP cavalry eventually came in for Paxton with more than $278 million in ad spending since the primary, according to AdImpact data.

Musk – the largest disclosed donor in US politics – singlehandedly accounted for $168 million of the GOP spending on the race, which received more of his funds than any other contest.

Much of the GOP attacks on Talarico have hinged on cultural issues, including criticizing his past statements on gender and religion.

Texas leads all states in early voting with 7.7 million ballots cast, according to data from the Texas secretary of state. Early voting data has shown high turnout in Democratic counties. Latino voters, a voting bloc showing signs this year of shifting away from Trump, have made up a higher share of the early vote than the last election.

Texas GOP Sen. Ted Cruz has sounded the alarm about the early voting surge, saying Friday on his podcast, “We could lose every single statewide race.”

This is still Texas, a bastion of American conservatism. Trump won the state by double digits in 2024, and Republicans are depending on their base turning out in droves on Election Day despite some uneasiness around Paxton’s candidacy. Republicans are also watching how the option of a libertarian candidate might factor into voter decisions on Election Day.

At the start of the cycle, Maine was viewed as one of Democrats’ top pickup opportunities. This Senate race was among the most volatile contests this cycle due to the sexual misconduct allegations around Graham Platner and his eventual exit from the race .

One day out, a CNN Poll of Polls average shows Democrat Troy Jackson leading GOP Sen. Susan Collins by 4 points – 50% to 46%.

Collins is the only GOP incumbent running in a state Kamala Harris won in 2024. And polling also has shown the race is a referendum on Collins, who is running for a sixth term. A CNN poll conducted by SSRS found about three-quarters of likely voters behind each candidate in Maine said their choice is motivated by Collins more than Jackson.

Democratic candidate for US Senate Troy Jackson greets supporters during a campaign rally in Biddeford, Maine on October 11. Charly Triballeau/AFP/Getty Images Sen. Susan Collins walks to her campaign bus following a campaign stop on October 21 in Lewiston, Maine. Robert F. Bukaty/AP/File The outstanding question is whether Collins can outrun her state’s negative views of the GOP and Trump. The senator continues to stress her independent approach, though Democrats argue she sides with Trump most of the time, including in their top ad in the final two weeks.

GOP groups have flooded the state with ads reminding voters what Collins has achieved for the state. The top Republican ad in the closing weeks leveled political and personal attacks against Jackson, calling him “a crook and a creep.”

Alaska moves down two spots as a late-breaking development regarding the two Dan Sullivans could be a wild card.

Republicans have long worried about the inclusion of a second Dan Sullivan, a former schoolteacher, on the four-way ranked-choice ballot in November, but The New York Times reporting alleging Democrats recruited a Senate candidate with the same name as incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan injected new uncertainty in the race.

A NYT/Siena poll released Sunday showed no clear leader in the contest between Democratic former Rep. Mary Peltola and Sen. Sullivan – 48% to 46% – suggesting a tightening in the race may have occurred. In August, Peltola came in 8 points ahead of the incumbent Sullivan in the state’s all-party primary in August.

Alaska is notoriously difficult to poll. Peltola out-raised Sullivan in the first two weeks of October and had more cash on hand entering the final stretch. But the GOP slightly outpaced Democrats in ad buys in the state for the last two weeks.

Peltola has denied any involvement in the alleged efforts to stack the ballot, even as Trump has suggested she drop out of the race and state and federal criminal investigations are underway. Legal experts are broadly skeptical that the alleged ballot-stacking rises to the level of a crime.

Alaska’s vote count could take longer than other states due to ranked choice voting and the state allows for mailed ballots postmarked before or on Election Day to be returned to the elections office within 10-15 days. In a close election, there could be a scenario where the Alaska results won’t be known for weeks.

Kansas moves up two spots as GOP Sen. Roger Marshall appears on shaky ground against Democrat Adam Hamilton , who is hoping to be the first Kansas Democrat elected to the US Senate since 1994.

A NYT/Siena poll released Sunday showed Hamilton leading Rogers 49% to 44%, while a recent CNN poll conducted by SSRS found no clear leader in the contest. The CNN survey found a majority of likely voters said they would prefer Republicans to control the Senate but 53% view Marshall unfavorably.

Voters across the Midwest, including many farmers and ranchers, are feeling the squeeze of high diesel prices and Trump’s tariffs. A New York Times report about hundreds of former Marshall patients being sued for unpaid bills, with some even being arrested, has emerged as a flashpoint in the race.

Democratic US senatorial candidate Adam Hamilton of Kansas, listens to administrators at the Health Partnership Clinic on August 12 in Olathe, Kansas. Colin E. Braley/AP Sen. Roger Marshall listens as Vice President JD Vance speaks during an event at Webco Manufacturing on September 14 in Olathe, Kansas. Mark Schiefelbein/Pool/Getty Images/File Hamilton, a Methodist megachurch pastor, has tried to stitch together a broad coalition in a state Trump won by 16 points.

The president traveled to the state on Sunday to rally his base voters, and Republicans are hoping the red-leaning landscape could ultimately prove insurmountable for Democrats.

But Democrats have made big moves to put the state in play in the final stretch. Democratic groups outspent Republicans by about $45.7 million to $31.5 million in October, and entering the final weeks, Hamilton had $2.9 million in the bank compared to Marshall’s $810,000.

Iowa keeps its spot in the race to replace GOP Sen. Joni Ernst.

CNN’s Poll of Polls average shows no clear leader in the contest between Democrat Josh Turek and GOP Rep. Ashley Hinson who sit at 46% and 45%, respectively.

Trump won Iowa by 13 points in 2024, and the state has not elected a Democratic senator since 2008. Hinson also has proven to be one of the most politically adept Republicans running this cycle. Though she has campaigned alongside the president, Hinson has worked to distance herself from the president on the Iran war, tariffs, and beef imports.

But the GOP congresswoman still faces voter angst over the rising cost of diesel, fertilizer and other goods utilized in the agriculturally reliant state. And like Kansas, Democrats outspent Republicans in October, here by nearly $20 million. A top Democratic ad during that period ties the GOP congresswoman to high gas prices, tariffs and the war with Iran while Republicans have run with an ad dinging Turek on immigration.

An expected strong performance by Rob Sand, the Democratic candidate for governor, could also benefit Turek in the end.

Michigan shifts down two spots, as new signs suggest Democrat Abdul El-Sayed may have an upper hand over GOP former Rep. Mike Rogers – even as a stunning cross-party endorsement came into play in the closing days.

Democratic Rep. Haley Stevens on Sunday decided to abandon El-Sayed and back Rogers, a remarkable break from her party. The simmering tension between El-Sayed and Stevens exploded into public view in the final days of the campaign after a bruising primary – and a recent new argument – that hinged largely on differing views on US aid to Israel.

Democratic US Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed speaks to media on the day of a "Souls to the Polls" campaign rally with US Representative James Clyburn in Detroit, Michigan, on November 1. Brian Snyder/Reuters Rep. Haley Stevens speaks alongside Michigan Republican Senate candidate Mike Rogers after a church service at Perfecting Church, on November 1, in Detroit.

Jose Juarez/AP The Stevens endorsement, coming less than 48 hours before Election Day, highlights El-Sayed’s challenge in winning over parts of the Democratic coalition that favored Stevens in the primary, notably Black and Jewish voters.

But it also resulted in state and national Democrats – some of them no fans of El-Sayed – issuing strong statements Sunday in his favor. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, whom CNN has reported unofficially backed Stevens in the primary, accused her of a “despicable betrayal.”

CNN’s Poll of Polls average shows El-Sayed leading Rogers in Michigan – 50 to 45%. That includes a NYT/Siena poll , which found El-Sayed with an 11-point advantage. A CNN poll conducted by SSRS last month revealed signs the progressive was consolidating support among Democrats, including earning the support of 95% of Democratic likely voters.

Some 1.5 million early votes had already been cast in the race as of Sunday, approaching half the number that were cast in Michigan during the entirety of the 2022 midterms.

Ultimately, this race could boil down to how Michiganders feel about the economy amid high gas prices and Trump’s trade war with Canada. One of the top Democratic ads for the final two weeks focused on healthcare as they attempted to link Rogers to high costs fueled by pharmaceutical companies.

The president has worked hard to turn out base voters in support of Rogers, who lost a Senate race in 2024 despite Trump appearing at the top of the ticket. But Rogers is also grappling with the unpopularity of Trump’s second term. The president’s approval rating with likely voters sits at 33%, according to CNN’s new poll.

Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas seems to be on more solid footing over GOP former Sen. John Sununu than during the summer months.

A University of New Hampshire Survey Center poll found Pappas up 12 points over Sununu among likely voters in the state. The survey also found Republican Gov. Kelly Ayotte statistically tied with her Democratic opponent Cinde Warmington.

Democratic US Senate candidate for New Hampshire Chris Pappas greets supporters in Nashua, New Hampshire, October 17. Joseph Preziozo/AFP/Getty Images US Senate Candidate Republican John Sununu greets voters at Senator Howard Pearl's 5th Annual Oktoberfest on October 3, 2026 in Loudon, New Hampshire. Sophie Park/Getty Images Some Republicans are still holding out hope that a strong showing by Ayotte could benefit Sununu. But negative views of Trump may dent Sununu despite his attempts to distance himself from the president. South Carolina is moving onto this list for the first time.

A New York Times/Siena poll released last week showed a tied race between appointed GOP Sen. Darline Graham and Democrat Annie Andrews, a physician.

Graham is running for a full term after her brother, Lindsey, unexpectedly died in July. She had shaky moments in her campaign, notably saying “national security is not my thing” when asked about Taiwan in a debate.

She has not won over key parts of the Republican base. GOP Rep. Ralph Norman, who was on stage during Graham’s debate flub and lost to her in a close primary runoff, revealed to CNN his entire family was not voting for his former opponent and argued she’s not a true conservative. Trump has visited the state twice in the last month as he looked to rally GOP voters to turn out.

Andrews has significantly out-raised Graham in the campaign. And outside spending has poured into the state, each side set to spend about $17 million over the final two weeks in a frantic scramble to reach voters.

The fundamentals of the state are still in Graham’s favor. Trump won the state by 18 points in 2024. But the close nature of the race is giving some Republicans anxiety heading into election night.

Republicans started the cycle with Georgia as a top offensive opportunity, but one day before the election, a GOP win in the Senate race may be off the table.

Sen. Jon Ossoff has run a strong campaign and outpolled GOP Rep. Mike Collins, whom Trump endorsed in the GOP runoff, throughout the contest. Ossoff has also dramatically out-raised and outspent Collins.

The conversation around Ossoff has centered less around if he will be reelected than on whether he’ll decide to pursue higher office in 2028. He has repeatedly rejected talk of a White House run.

Though he’s expected to win on Tuesday, Ossoff’s political clout will still be tested. The Georgia Democrat has worked hard to lift gubernatorial nominee Keisha Lance Bottoms in her race against GOP nominee Rick Jackson, so we’ll be watching to see whether Ossoff’s can help carry her in this competitive contest. (A Bottoms win would put her in a position to fill a Senate vacancy, which matters greatly to Democrats who want Ossoff to run for president.)

There are a number of states we were watching throughout this contest that never fully materialized as actual chess pieces on the battleground board. That includes two races featuring GOP incumbents – Nebraska and Mississippi – and another for a seat held by a retiring Democratic senator in Minnesota.

Maybe they would’ve come online in a more serious way with more money and time, but at this point, flips in these three states would be a big surprise on Tuesday.