据Decision Desk HQ预测，民主党人克里斯蒂娜·博汉南将击败众议员玛丽安妮特·米勒-米克斯（共和党-爱荷华州），赢得爱荷华州第1国会选区席位，为民主党翻转一个关键摇摆席位。博汉南是爱荷华大学法学教授、前州立法者，在第三次连续大选交锋中击败了这位三届共和党议员，此前她在2022年和2024年曾以微弱差距败给米勒-米克斯。
Democrat Christina Bohannan is projected to unseat Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Iowa) in the race for Iowa’s 1st Congressional District, according to Decision Desk HQ, flipping a key battleground seat for Democrats. Bohannan, a University of Iowa law professor and former state lawmaker, defeated the three-term Republican in their third consecutive general election matchup after narrowly losing to Miller-Meeks in 2022 and 2024.
这场胜利发生在两年后，当时米勒-米克斯在2024年以仅799票之差击败博汉南，这是历史上最接近的众议院选举之一。结果在重新计票后得到确认，使米勒-米克斯得以在国会再度连任。米勒-米克斯在2020年竞选国会时也仅以六票之差获胜，击败了民主党人丽塔·哈特，当时的选区是爱荷华州第2国会选区。这个包括爱荷华城、达文波特和伯灵顿的东南爱荷华选区，在最近几个选举周期中成为最具竞争力的众议院选举之一。
The victory comes two years after Miller-Meeks defeated Bohannan by just 799 votes in 2024, one of the closest House races in history. The results were confirmed after a recount, allowing Miller-Meeks to secure another term in Congress. Miller-Meeks also won her 2020 election bid to Congress by just six votes, defeating Democrat Rita Hart in what was then Iowa’s 2nd Congressional District. The southeastern Iowa district, which includes Iowa City, Davenport and Burlington, emerged as one of the most competitive House races in recent election cycles.
支持米勒-米克斯的特朗普总统在2024年以超过8个百分点的优势赢得了该选区。非党派选举预测机构库克政治报告在10月将该选举从“摇摆不定”调整为“倾向民主党”，理由是米勒-米克斯不受欢迎，以及共和党人在她寻求第四个任期时所面临的政治环境日益严峻。两党都向这场选举投入了数百万美元。与众议院共和党领导层结盟的超级政治行动委员会“国会领导基金”在电视和数字广告上花费了500万美元。
President Trump, who endorsed Miller-Meeks, carried the district by more than 8 percentage points in 2024. The nonpartisan election handicapper Cook Political Report moved the race from “toss up” to “lean Democrat” in October, citing Miller-Meeks’s unpopularity and growing challenges in the political environment for Republicans as she sought a fourth term. Both parties poured millions of dollars into the race. The Congressional Leadership Fund, a super PAC aligned with House Republican leadership, spent $5 million on television and digital advertising.
议长迈克·约翰逊（共和党-路易斯安那州）与米勒-米克斯一同竞选，并将该选区描述为最具影响力的战场之一。与此同时，博汉南成为筹款强手，在电视广告上花费了近500万美元，而与民主党结盟的“众议院多数党政治行动委员会”计划再投入400万美元。
Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) joined Miller-Meeks on the campaign trail, and has described the district as one of the most consequential battlegrounds. Bohannan, meanwhile, emerged as a fundraising juggernaut, spending nearly $5 million on television advertising while the Democratic-aligned House Majority PAC planned another $4 million in spending.
民主党针对米勒-米克斯支持特朗普政府关税的立场，认为这些政策损害了爱荷华州以农业为主的经济。此前曾在爱荷华州议会任职的博汉南，竞选主张降低工薪家庭的生活成本并保障医疗保健的可及性。她还批评米勒-米克斯支持大规模的减税和支出法案。博汉南的胜利结束了米勒-米克斯在国会的任期，为民主党在夺回众议院多数席位的努力中赢得了一场备受关注的胜选。
Democrats targeted Miller-Meeks over her support for the Trump administration’s tariffs, arguing that the policies had hurt Iowa’s agriculture-heavy economy. Bohannan, who previously served in the Iowa House, campaigned on lowering costs for working families and protecting access to health care. She also criticized Miller-Meeks for supporting sweeping tax and spending legislation. Bohannan’s victory ends Miller-Meeks’s tenure in Congress and delivers Democrats a closely watched pickup in their effort to win back the House majority.