
金正恩的胞妹、实权人物金与正周三拒绝与美国举行任何进一步会谈,此前几天联邦调查局(FBI)指控朝鲜从一家加密货币交易所窃取了超过60亿美元,华盛顿随即启动新一轮针对平壤的制裁。
Kim Jong-un’s powerful sister on Wednesday rejected holding any further talks with the United States, days after the FBI accused North Korea of stealing more than US$6 billion from a cryptocurrency exchange and Washington launched a new round of sanctions aimed at Pyongyang.
分析人士称,最新事态发展几乎彻底扼杀了再次举行特朗普-金正恩峰会的可能性,尽管美国总统仍对朝鲜最高领导人表达友好言辞,并显示出再次会面的开放态度。
Analysts say the latest developments have all but killed off the chances of another Trump-Kim summit, despite the US president’s continued warm words for North Korea’s supreme leader and apparent openness to meeting him again.
金与正周三在一份声明中称,联邦调查局关于币安(Binance)黑客攻击的指控,证明了华盛顿对平壤的“敌对政策”,并表示“无需”举行进一步会谈。
In a statement on Wednesday, Kim Yo-jong called the Federal Bureau of Investigation’s allegations regarding the Binance hack proof of Washington’s “hostile policy” towards Pyongyang and said there was “no need” for further talks.
“他们谈论和平,但最热衷的是战争演习和强化军事同盟,”她说。“我们的明确立场是,无需与这种不可信任且充满敌意的人坐下来面对面谈判。” 她的言论还紧随上周美国财政部制裁八名朝鲜特工、两名俄罗斯金融协助者及一家朝鲜控制实体,指控其涉及一起海外IT工人欺诈计划。
“They talk about peace but prefer above all war drills and strengthening military alliances,” she said. “It is our clear position that there is no need to sit face to face with such untrustworthy and hostile people.”Her remarks also followed last week’s sanctioning by the US Treasury Department of eight North Korean operatives, two Russian financial facilitators and one North Korean-controlled entity over an overseas IT worker fraud scheme.
数百名朝鲜国民、官员及空壳公司已被纳入美国制裁框架,该框架通常冻结受美国管辖的资产,并禁止美国人与被制裁名单上的人员交易。
Hundreds of North Korean nationals, officials and front companies have been sanctioned under the US sanctions framework, which typically freezes assets subject to US jurisdiction and bars Americans from dealing with those named.
负责管理制裁的美国财政部外国资产控制办公室(OFAC)于10月28日指控,被制裁团体运行一项国家主导的计划,朝鲜IT工人常伪装成自由职业者,欺诈美国公司以筹集资金,用于平壤的武器项目。
The Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control, which administers the sanctions, on October 28 accused the sanctioned group of running a state-directed scheme in which North Korean IT workers, often posing as freelancers, had defrauded American companies to generate revenue for Pyongyang’s weapons programmes.
“朝鲜政权继续通过其海外IT人员实施的欺诈活动,瞄准并利用美国公司,将敏感数据武器化并勒索企业支付巨额款项,”财政部长斯科特·贝森特在一份声明中说。
“The North Korean regime continues targeting and exploiting American companies through fraudulent activities conducted by its overseas IT operatives, who weaponise sensitive data and extort businesses for substantial payments,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a statement.
特朗普在其首个总统任期内与金正恩会晤了三次,最近一次是在2019年6月于非军事区举行。
Trump and Kim Jong-un met three times during the US president’s first term in office, most recently at the demilitarised zone in June 2019.
这位美国总统曾多次吹嘘他与朝鲜独裁者金正恩的关系“非常好”,并于8月表示计划今年再次与金正恩会面,但此后收回了这些言论,于10月19日告诉记者,他“不确定是否有人在要求会面”。
The US president has repeatedly touted his “very good” relationship with the North Korean dictator and said in August that he planned to meet Kim again this year, but has since walked back these remarks, telling reporters on October 19 that he was “not sure that anybody’s asking for a meeting”.
华盛顿表示,如果平壤愿意讨论美国及其地区盟友(包括韩国)关切的问题,特朗普将再次会见金正恩。有猜测将潜在会晤与本月晚些时候在深圳举行的亚太经济合作组织(APEC)峰会联系在一起。
Washington has said Trump would meet Kim again if Pyongyang was willing to discuss issues of concern to the US and its regional allies, including South Korea. Speculation has linked a potential meeting to the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Shenzhen later this month.
但分析人士称,特朗普对金正恩的友好态度与美国政府持续的施压行动背道而驰。
But analysts say Trump’s warmth towards Kim sits at odds with the US government’s continued pressure campaign.
哈佛大学亚洲中心驻会研究员、地缘政治分析师李成贤表示,总统言辞与官僚执行之间的这种脱节,正是令许多外部观察家感到困惑的原因。据李成贤称,特朗普几乎是其政府中唯一向金正恩展现“温暖、个人化形象”的人物。
That disconnect between presidential rhetoric and bureaucratic execution is what confuses many outside observersLee Seong-hyon, geopolitical analyst Trump is virtually the only figure in his administration projecting “a warm, personal image” towards Kim, according to geopolitical analyst Lee Seong-hyon, an associate-in-research at Harvard University Asia Centre.
他说:“他的国家安全团队和财政团队对朝鲜的非法威胁,特别是网络金融犯罪,保持着清醒和强硬的立场。”
“His national security and Treasury teams remain clear-eyed and hawkish towards North Korea’s illicit threats, especially cyber-financial crime,” he said.
华盛顿智库布鲁金斯学会的安德鲁·吕表示,特朗普淡化与金正恩会面的言论以及最近的制裁表明,总统及其政府在与平壤接触的问题上“可能更加一致了一些”。
Andrew Yeo of the Brookings Institution, a Washington-based think tank, said Trump’s comments playing down a meeting with Kim and the recent sanctions suggested the president and his administration “may be a bit more aligned” on engagement with Pyongyang.
杨智杰表示,特朗普“不介意前后不一或持有相互矛盾的立场”,如果出现会晤机会,无论是否有制裁,他都很可能“促成会晤”。杨智杰是该智库的高级研究员兼SK-韩国基金会韩国研究讲座教授。
He said Trump was “not bothered by inconsistency or holding contradictory positions” and would likely “make it happen” if the chance for a meeting arose, sanctions or not. Yeo is a senior fellow and the SK-Korea Foundation chair of Korea studies at the think tank.
李成贤表示,金正恩早已得出结论,如果没有实质性让步,“纯拍照式峰会”收效递减,但他预测,从美国中期选举中政治上削弱而浮现的特朗普“可能会更加渴望在朝鲜半岛上演一场惊人的外交大戏”。分析人士称,华盛顿最新一轮措施不太可能对平壤造成太大伤害。
Lee said Kim had long ago concluded that a “pure photo-op summit” carried diminishing returns without concrete concessions, but predicted that a Trump who was emerging politically weakened from the US midterm elections “may grow far more eager for a dramatic foreign-policy spectacle on the Korean peninsula”. Analysts say Washington’s latest round of measures are unlikely to hurt Pyongyang too much.
欧洲朝鲜研究中心非常驻研究员加布里埃拉·贝尔纳尔表示,金正恩“可能根本不为此失眠,因为他得到了莫斯科和北京的支持”。
Gabriela Bernal, non-resident fellow at the European Centre for North Korean Studies, said Kim “probably isn’t losing much sleep over them either, since he’s got the support of Moscow and Beijing”.
中国是朝鲜最大的贸易伙伴,俄罗斯为平壤提供安全和军事支持。两国都将朝鲜视为缓冲国,以及遏制美国影响力、维护边境稳定的地区伙伴。
China is North Korea’s largest trading partner and Russia provides Pyongyang with security and military support. Both regard North Korea as a buffer state and a regional partner to counter US influence and maintain stability on their borders.
网络犯罪是金氏政权财政的核心。情报机构和区块链分析师(他们追踪加密货币交易)表示,窃取和网络诈骗产生的收入占政权总预算的三分之一到二分之一。这些行动规模达数十亿美元,帮助朝鲜规避国际制裁并为其武器计划提供资金。
Cybercrime is central to the Kim regime’s finances. Intelligence agencies and blockchain analysts, who trace cryptocurrency transactions, say theft and online fraud generate between one-third and one-half of the regime’s total budget. The operations run to multiple billions of dollars and help North Korea evade international sanctions and fund its weapons programmes.
杨智杰将近期制裁描述为惩罚性的,并称这是“一个重要信号”,表明华盛顿“不会容忍针对美国企业的非法活动”。但他同时也称这是“一场猫鼠游戏”,新的黑客不断涌现并适应变化,以维持资金流向政权。
Yeo described the recent sanctions as punitive and “an important signal” that Washington “will not tolerate illicit activities targeting US businesses”. But he also called it “a cat-and-mouse game”, with new hackers constantly emerging and adapting to keep money flowing to the regime.
贝尔纳尔表示,平壤擅长网络行动,其诈骗规模“可能直到现在才被发现”。
Bernal said Pyongyang excelled at cyber operations and the scale of its scams was probably “only now being discovered”.
“解决了一个漏洞,又会冒出更多,这不是短期内就会消失的问题,”她说,并补充称,大多数操作人员都在中国和俄罗斯工作,而这两个国家都不配合制裁执行。
“As one loose end is tied, more will pop up, it’s not something that will be disappearing any time soon,” she said, adding that most operatives worked from China and Russia, neither of which cooperated on sanctions enforcement.
李某表示,中国占朝鲜官方对外贸易的约98%,削弱了定向制裁的“战略效力”。
China accounted for about 98 per cent of North Korea’s official external trade, Lee said, blunting the “strategic bite” of targeted sanctions.
10月15日,中国和朝鲜正式开通了长期停滞的新鸭绿江大桥车辆通行。一周多后,金某经该大桥前往边境城市丹东,与中国官员会晤、参观战争纪念馆并考察一家历史悠久的车辆工厂。
On October 15, China and North Korea officially opened the long-stalled New Yalu River Bridge to vehicle traffic. A little over a week later, Kim crossed the bridge to meet with Chinese officials in the border city of Dandong, visit war memorials and tour a historic vehicle factory.
李某表示,此类联系将把跨境贸易扩大到“高速公路规模,使传统的金融孤立手段过时”。
Such links, Lee said, would expand cross-border commerce “on an expressway scale that renders traditional financial isolation obsolete”.