AI开发者预计在未来几个月内，只能收到他们订购的Nvidia Corp.先进芯片的一小部分，因为这家美国公司难以提高产量以满足激增的需求。
AI developers expect to receive just a small fraction of the advanced Nvidia Corp. chips they’ve ordered over the next several months, as the US company struggles to boost production to meet soaring demand.
据知情人士透露，Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.、Tencent Holdings Ltd.、ByteDance Ltd.及其他中国AI和云计算公司总共订购了约600万颗Nvidia的RTX Pro 5500芯片。知情人士称，这些公司预计在未来四个月内只能收到数万颗，约占订单总量的1%，知情人士因讨论私事要求不具名。
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd., Tencent Holdings Ltd., ByteDance Ltd. and other Chinese AI and cloud firms have in total ordered about 6 million of Nvidia’s RTX Pro 5500 chips, according to people familiar with the matter. Yet the companies predict they will get only some tens of thousands, or roughly 1%, within the next four months, said the people, asking not to be named discussing a private matter.
知情人士表示，每颗芯片售价超过1.1万美元，目前的订单总价值约为700亿美元。
At more than $11,000 a chip, the total orders so far are valued at about $70 billion, the people said.
中国大型云服务商对这些芯片的强劲需求凸显了该国AI算力的巨大短缺。这也暴露了本土硬件制造商的局限性，尽管它们已取得技术进展。芯片供应稀缺将使中国AI开发者更难追赶美国市场领导者。
Chinese hyperscalers’ strong appetite for the chips underscores the enormous shortage of AI computing power in the country. It also exposes the limitations of local hardware manufacturers despite the technological progress they’ve been making. Scant chip supply will make it harder for the Chinese AI developers to catch up with the US market leaders.
虽然美国禁止Nvidia向中国出售其最尖端的芯片，但RTX Pro 5500的性能尚不足以触发此类限制。然而在中国，它属于可获得的最佳AI芯片之一，因为本土制造商Huawei Technologies Co.和Alibaba的T-Head在生产和技术能力上仍落后于美国竞争对手。
While the US bars Nvidia from selling its most cutting-edge chips to China, the RTX Pro 5500 isn’t quite powerful enough to face such restrictions. Yet in China, it is among the best AI chips available, as local manufacturers Huawei Technologies Co. and Alibaba’s T-Head trail the production and technological capabilities of their US rivals.
作为全球AI硬件领导者，Nvidia多年来一直游说美国政府，以便能向中国客户出售更多芯片。然而，由于全球产能不足，这家美国公司正优先生产其最复杂、利润率最高的半导体，供OpenAI和Anthropic PBC等公司使用。
Nvidia, the global AI hardware leader, has lobbied the US government for years to be able to sell more chips to Chinese customers. Yet with insufficient global production capacity, the US company is prioritizing its most sophisticated and higher-margin semiconductors, used by the likes of OpenAI and Anthropic PBC.
主要中国AI开发商预计，首批数千片RTX Pro 5500芯片将于今年底前交付，随后将在2月左右再交付数万片，知情人士透露。其中一名知情人士称，这些是目前唯一确认的出货批次。
Major Chinese AI developers expect the first batch of several thousand RTX Pro 5500 chips to be delivered by the end of this year, followed by another batch of tens of thousands around February, said the people. Those are the only confirmed shipments so far, one of the people said.
一名知情人士援引一位关键买家的内部测算称，中国大型云服务商估计到2027年底可能收到约70万片RTX Pro 5500，因为英伟达预计将提高产量。最终出货量可能会变动，取决于英伟达的产能调整。
The Chinese hyperscalers estimate they could receive roughly 700,000 RTX Pro 5500 units by the end of 2027, as Nvidia is expected to ramp up production, said one of the people, citing internal calculations of a key buyer. The final shipment sizes could change, depending on Nvidia’s capacity adjustments.
“遗憾的是，美国企业仍受到过时的美国出口管制和中国自身对美国进口限制的双重束缚，这些管制涵盖近五年前发布的游戏产品，”英伟达发言人在回复提问时表示，拒绝就出货数量置评。阿里巴巴、腾讯和字节跳动发言人未回应置评请求。
“Unfortunately, US firms continue to be restricted by a combination of outdated US export controls, which cover gaming products released nearly a half a decade ago, and China’s own limits on US imports,” an Nvidia spokesperson said in a response to questions, declining to comment on shipment numbers. Alibaba, Tencent and ByteDance spokespersons didn’t respond to requests for comment.
知情人士称，英伟达已警告客户，在可预见的未来产能将有限，理由是产品排期冲突。这家总部位于加利福尼亚州圣克拉拉的公司依赖台积电生产其AI芯片。随着英伟达和台积电将更多制造产能分配给Rubin等下一代产品，RTX Pro 5500的供应预计将持续紧张。
Nvidia has warned customers of limited capacity for the foreseeable future, citing product scheduling conflicts, said the people. The Santa Clara, California-based company relies on Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. to produce its AI chips. With Nvidia and TSMC allocating more of their manufacturing capacity toward next-generation products such as Rubin, supply of the RTX Pro 5500 is expected to remain constrained.
出于担忧其会推动中国AI发展并助长地缘政治盟友的军事力量，华盛顿禁止英伟达最强大的加速器出口中国。尽管如此，特朗普政府最近解除了对部分已小量销售的老一代芯片的限制。
Washington bars Nvidia’s most powerful accelerators from China on concerns they would propel the country’s AI efforts and aid the military of a geopolitical ally. Still, the Trump administration recently lifted restrictions on some older-generation chips that have been sold in small quantities.
《The Information》9月报道称，中国政府已发出信号，可能允许阿里巴巴和字节跳动等公司购买RTX Pro 5500芯片。路透社上月报道称，中国企业对英伟达的订单已超过300万片。
The Chinese government has signaled it may allow companies such as Alibaba and ByteDance to buy RTX Pro 5500 chips, The Information reported in September. Reuters reported last month that Nvidia orders by the Chinese firms had topped 3 million units.
鉴于英伟达供应紧张，中国大型云服务商很可能继续转向华为、寒武纪科技股份有限公司和阿里巴巴平头哥等国内替代方案以获取推理芯片。但美国对先进芯片制造设备和服务的限制，加上高带宽存储器的长期短缺，仍在制约中国芯片制造商的产能并推高价格。
Given Nvidia’s tight supply, Chinese hyperscalers are likely to keep turning to domestic alternatives such as Huawei, Cambricon Technologies Corp. and Alibaba’s T-Head for inference chips. But US restrictions on advanced chipmaking equipment and services, along with a prolonged shortage of high-bandwidth memory, continue to constrain Chinese chipmakers’ production capacity and drive up prices.
首先，寒武纪最新的业绩凸显了其产能瓶颈。作为中国最大的AI芯片供应商，华为也在9月左右将其最先进加速器的价格上调了60%。
For one, Cambricon’s latest results highlighted its production constraints. Huawei, China’s largest AI chip supplier, also lifted the prices for its most advanced accelerators by 60% around September.