南卡罗来纳州上一次选举民主党人进入参议院还是在1998年，而在今晚8点左右之前，并没有太多理由认为这一局面会很快结束。棕榈州一直坚定地支持共和党，造就了共和党政治中一些最耀眼明星的职业生涯，包括已故参议员林赛·格雷厄姆。随着格雷厄姆的妹妹竞选接替他的席位，共和党的主导地位似乎几乎板上钉钉会延续下去。
The last time South Carolina elected a Democrat to the Senate was in 1998, and until around 8 o’clock tonight, there wasn’t a lot of reason to think that streak would end any time soon. The Palmetto State has been steadfastly Republican, launching the careers of some of the biggest stars in GOP politics, including the late Senator Lindsey Graham. With Graham’s sister running to succeed him, a continuation of Republican dominance seemed all but assured.
但今晚，南卡罗来纳州——两年前唐纳德·特朗普在这里以近18个百分点的优势获胜——将一名民主党人送进了参议院。儿科医生安妮·安德鲁斯翻转了共和党人达琳·格雷厄姆持有的席位，后者在其兄长于7月去世后接任。民主党全国委员会普通委员凯伊·孔斯说：“我想你在南卡罗来纳州找不到任何人会说，‘哦，我早就知道这会发生。’”那么究竟发生了什么？
But tonight, South Carolina, where Donald Trump won by almost 18 points two years ago, sent a Democrat to the Senate. Annie Andrews, a pediatrician, flipped a seat held by the Republican Darline Graham, who took office after her brother died in July. “I don’t imagine you’ll find anybody in South Carolina who will say, Oh, I knew this was going to happen,” said Kaye Koonce, a member at-large for the Democratic National Committee.
安德鲁斯受益于多种因素的交汇，就在几个月前这些因素似乎不可能同时出现，其中包括一位在选举政治现实面前举步维艰的共和党候选人、一个对民主党历史性有利的环境，以及全州范围内的下层级竞选组织工作帮助动员了选民。“星象排列得恰到好处，”哈里森告诉我。（这位前民主党全国委员会主席曾在2020年竞选挑战林赛·格雷厄姆，以超过10个百分点的差距落败。）
So what did happen? Andrews benefited from a convergence of factors that seemed impossible just a few months ago, including a Republican candidate who struggled with the realities of electoral politics, a historically favorable environment for Democrats, and downballot organizing that helped turn out voters across the state. “The stars aligned,” Jaime Harrison told me. (The former chair of the DNC ran to unseat Lindsey Graham in 2020 and lost by more than 10 percentage points.)
“我们拥有一位更优秀的候选人。达琳·格雷厄姆可能是个非常好的人，但她还没准备好进入美国参议院。”大多数南卡罗来纳州人似乎也同意这一看法。特朗普在其兄长去世后不久提名达琳·格雷厄姆填补其兄长的剩余任期，这一选择令人意外。随后，格雷厄姆宣布想竞选完整任期，再次让许多人大跌眼镜。作为政治新人，她在竞选途中举步维艰，早期的失言始终困扰着她，其中包括在与对手、联邦众议员拉尔夫·诺曼的初选辩论中称“国家安全不是我的强项”。
“We had a superior candidate. Darline Graham may be a very nice woman, but she wasn’t ready to be in the United States Senate.”A majority of South Carolinians appeared to agree. Darline Graham was a surprise pick when Trump tapped her to fill out her brother’s term soon after his death. Graham then stunned many by announcing she wanted to run to serve a full term. A political novice, she struggled on the trail and made early gaffes that haunted her, including saying “national security is not my thing” in a primary debate against her opponent, Representative Ralph Norman.
有时甚至看起来格雷厄姆似乎并不真想要这个席位。她几乎不进行竞选活动，筹款也很少。（在10月前两周，格雷厄姆筹得不到60万美元，而安德鲁斯筹得450万美元。）民调显示竞争态势趋紧后，特朗普上月两次在该州助选试图挽救格雷厄姆的局面。但这还不够——在某些地区，他的现身甚至可能适得其反。（Civiqs的州别追踪显示，截至今天，他在南卡罗来纳州的支持率已降至仅40%。）
At times, it seemed almost as if Graham didn’t really want the seat. She hardly campaigned and she didn’t raise a lot of money. (Graham pulled in less than $600,000 during the first two weeks of October, while Andrews raised $4.5 million.) After polls showed a tightening race, Trump stumped in the state twice last month to try to save Graham. But it wasn’t enough—and, in some areas, his presence may have even hurt her. ( Civiqs’s state-by-state tracker found that as of today, his approval in South Carolina was down to just 40 percent.)
一些共和党人在诺曼初选失利后发起草根写入竞选活动，这也没能帮上忙；诺曼的儿子沃伦·诺曼撰写题为《为何这位终身保守派不会投票给达琳·格雷厄姆》的评论文章，抨击这位共和党人以恐惧为竞选纲领，并称赞安妮·安德鲁斯。
Neither did it help that some Republicans had launched a grassroots write-in campaign for Norman after his defeat, and that his son, Warren Norman, wrote an op-ed titled “Why This Lifelong Conservative Won’t Vote for Darline Graham,” slamming the Republican for campaigning on fear and praising Annie Andrews.
然后是安德鲁斯，她成功将自己塑造成华盛顿局外人。“我真的认为，这件事的关键在于，人们无论传统上投票给共和党人、民主党人，还是自认为是独立人士，都已经厌倦了华盛顿的党派政治，”安德鲁斯在选举日早晨与我通电话时说道。
Then you had Andrews, who was able to portray herself as a Washington outsider. “I really think the story is that people, no matter if they’re traditionally voting for Republicans, Democrats, or if they consider themselves independents, they’re tired of the Washington party politics,” Andrews told me when we talked by phone on the morning of Election Day.
安德鲁斯说，她从未想过从政。她在南卡罗来纳医科大学儿童医院做了14年的儿科住院医师，但她说，政策决定对她患者的影响让她深感沮丧，于是她决定尝试转行。“我知道那些家庭需要一个发声的人，这就是我参与其中的原因。我认为这也是我的竞选能够引起共鸣、并真正在一定程度上打破这里典型党派投票模式的原因，”安德鲁斯告诉我。
Andrews said she never wanted to go into politics. She’s worked as a pediatric hospitalist at the Medical University of South Carolina Children’s Hospital for 14 years, but said she became so frustrated by how policy decisions were affecting her patients that she decided to try to change careers. “I knew that those families needed a voice and that’s why I got involved. And I think that’s why my campaign is resonating and really kind of breaking through typical partisan voting patterns down here,” Andrews told me.
2018年帕克兰校园枪击案发生后，她加入了枪支管控倡导组织“妈妈们要求行动”，并于2022年与共和党众议员南希·梅斯竞选——以近14个百分点的差距落败。但过去四年里，情况发生了很大变化。
After the Parkland school shooting in 2018, she joined the gun-control advocacy group Moms Demand Action, and in 2022 ran against Republican Representative Nancy Mace—and lost by nearly 14 points. But much has changed in the past four years.
民主党在全州的组织能力大幅提升——部分原因是南卡罗来纳州成为2028年一场竞争将极为激烈的民主党总统初选的首个举办州。本轮选举周期中，一批民主党有望参选者访问了该州——加文·纽森、安迪·贝希尔、科里·布克——带来了活力和知名度。几十年来第一次，南卡罗来纳州众议院全部124个席位都有民主党挑战者，无论共和党现任议员的优势有多大。
Democratic organizing capacity has surged throughout the state—driven in part by South Carolina becoming the first state in what will be a highly competitive Democratic presidential primary in 2028. An array of Democratic hopefuls has visited the state this cycle—Gavin Newsom, Andy Beshear, Cory Booker—bringing energy and name recognition. For the first time in decades, all 124 South Carolina State House races had Democratic challengers, regardless of how safe the Republican incumbents may have been.
这些候选人中的每一位都努力在自己选区拉票，开展的民主党基层组织工作也帮助了安德鲁斯。“我们的理论是，如果你在每一场竞选中都推出民主党人，你就给了每个人一个选择。而当你给人们一个选择时，他们就会出来投票，”哈里森告诉我。
Each one of those candidates worked to turn out the vote in their district, doing Democratic organizing that also helped Andrews. “Our theory of the case was, if you run a Democrat in every race, you’re giving everybody a choice. And when you’re giving people a choice, they turn out,” Harrison told me.
他们确实出来投票了，中期选举中投票选民的比例创下了纪录。安德鲁斯赢得了查尔斯顿以外的乡村和郊区县，而这些地方正是林赛·格雷厄姆六年前轻松拿下的。她甚至赢下了乡村的切斯特县，而特朗普在2024年曾以17个百分点的优势拿下该县。查尔斯顿的律师里奇·格格尔经营着一个民主党选民动员组织，他告诉我，安德鲁斯有本事把那些“偏民主党”的人动员出来投票，也有本事转化共和党人。
They did turn out, with a record percentage of voters casting ballots in a midterm. Andrews won rural and suburban counties outside of Charleston that Lindsey Graham handily won six years ago. She even won rural Chester County, which Trump carried in 2024 by 17 points. Richie Gergel, a lawyer in Charleston who runs a Democratic voter-engagement group, told me that Andrews has a talent for turning out people who are “Democrat-ish”—as well as for converting Republicans.
格格尔说，他一直在查尔斯顿各地挨家挨户拉票，遇到许多一辈子都是共和党的人，他们说这一轮只能捏着鼻子把票投给民主党人。
Gergel said he had been canvassing throughout Charleston and met many lifelong Republicans who said they were going to have to hold their nose and vote for the Democrat this cycle.
当然，安德鲁斯也得益于周二晚上席卷全国的蓝色浪潮，她的竞选议题与帮助民主党在其他艰难选区翻盘的那些议题相同：生活负担能力、柴油价格和关税。南卡罗来纳州有庞大的农业社区，在这三个方面都受到了沉重打击。安德鲁斯还重点聚焦医疗保健问题，以自己作为医生的经历发声，批评乡村医院关闭以及医疗保险费飙升。
Of course, Andrews was also buoyed by the blue wave that swept the country Tuesday night, campaigning on the same issues that helped Democrats flip other tough seats: affordability, diesel prices, and tariffs. South Carolina has a large agricultural community that has been hammered on all three fronts. Andrews also heavily focused on the issue of health care, speaking from her experience as a doctor, criticizing the closure of rural hospitals and the surge in health-insurance premiums.
另一边的达琳·格雷厄姆则打了一场重点聚焦文化战争的选战——这类议题或许能引起基本盘的共鸣，但对那些只想有人帮他们把车加满油的、意识形态色彩较淡的选民并无帮助。
Darline Graham, on the other side, ran a race that heavily focused on culture-war issues—which may resonate with the base but didn’t help with less ideological voters just looking for help gassing up their cars.
随着今晚共和党失利规模变得清晰，特朗普在Truth Social上发帖称，如果他本人出现在选票上，“我们会以压倒性优势获胜！”这话是否属实，我们永远无从得知。但他决定支持达琳·格雷厄姆——一个出人意料的候选人，而且她本人似乎并不怎么上心——在南卡罗来纳州政坛撕开了一道口子，而许多民主党人原以为这辈子都不会看到这样的机会。
As the scale of GOP losses became apparent tonight, Trump posted on Truth Social that had he been on the ballot, “we would have won IN A LANDSLIDE!”We’ll never know if that was true. But his decision to back Darline Graham, an unexpected candidate whose heart didn’t seem to be in it, created an opening in South Carolina politics that many Democrats thought they would never see in their lifetime.