唐纳德·特朗普对美联储独立性的制度规范发起冲击已有21个月之久，推高了市场波动性，并助推了整个经济中借贷成本的上升。但民主党人在中期选举中的压倒性表现，应能缓解人们对这家世界上最重要的央行正落入白宫政客掌控的担忧——这对于遏制通胀和稳定利率而言是一个可喜的进展。
Donald Trump has steamrolled institutional norms around Federal Reserve independence for 21 months now, driving up market volatility and contributing to higher borrowing costs throughout the economy. But the dominant showing by Democrats in the midterm elections should alleviate worries that the world’s most important central bank was coming under the control of White House politicians, a welcome development in the effort to rein in inflation and stabilize interest rates.
周二，民主党人在全国范围内翻转了多个国会选区和参议院席位，确保了众议院至少228席、参议院54席的多数地位，从而重新分配了对货币政策人事任命及其他宏观经济事务的控制权。特朗普此前已对美联储负责制定利率的联邦公开市场委员会的构成施加了重大影响。他今年任命凯文·沃什担任主席，并曾短暂地将时任白宫经济顾问委员会主席斯蒂芬·米兰安排进七人组成的理事会，填补一个空缺，直到能够任命永久替代人选。
Democrats flipped congressional districts and Senate seats across the country on Tuesday, securing majorities of at least 228 seats in the House and 54 in the Senate, redistributing control over monetary policy appointments and other macroeconomic matters. Trump has already wielded significant influence over the composition of the Fed’s rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee. He appointed Kevin Warsh as chair this year, and he briefly put Stephen Miran, then-chief of the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers, on the seven-member Board of Governors to fill a vacant spot until a permanent replacement could be named. (Fed governors vote on monetary policy in conjunction with a rotating cast of five Federal Reserve Bank presidents.)
（美联储理事与五位轮换的美联储银行行长共同就货币政策进行投票。）最令人担忧的是，他利用捏造的丑闻试图解雇在任理事，并向理事会塞入盟友，以满其降低利率的意愿。特朗普曾以住宅抵押贷款欺诈指控为由试图对理事莉萨·库克这样做，库克否认这些指控（最高法院阻止了他）；他还利用司法部对美联储总部翻修工程的调查，作为将仍在理事会任职的前主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔排挤出局的几近不加掩饰的手段。
Most alarmingly, he used manufactured scandals in an attempt to fire sitting governors and to pack the board with allies that would fulfill his desire for lower rates. Trump tried to do that with Governor Lisa Cook in relation to residential mortgage fraud allegations that she denies (the Supreme Court stopped him), and he used a Justice Department investigation into renovations at the Fed’s headquarters as a thinly veiled gambit to push former Chair Jerome Powell, who remains on the board of governors, out of office.
这些中期选举的一个关键后果是，特朗普现在将被迫在他原本至少还能获得的一次美联储提名上做出妥协：鲍威尔的美联储理事席位。回顾一下，特朗普提名的理事占据了理事会七个席位中的三个，其余席位由前总统乔·拜登或巴拉克·奥巴马提名，这使得鲍威尔实际上成为左右天平的关键一票。鲍威尔由奥巴马提名，但在他第一个任期内被特朗普提拔为主席，随后在鲍威尔拒绝被吓倒、不肯降息之后，特朗普很快对他心生不满。
A key consequence of these midterm elections is that Trump will now be forced to compromise on what was set to be at least one more Fed nomination: Powell’s board seat. To recap, Trump picks hold three of the seven positions on the Board of Governors, with the rest tapped by former president’s Joe Biden or Barack Obama, making Powell effectively the swing voter. He was nominated by Obama, but elevated to chair by Trump in his first term before quickly souring on him after Powell refused to be cowed into rate cuts.
在沃什接任主席后，鲍威尔决定留任理事，部分原因是为了对特朗普形成制衡。鲍威尔的理事任期定于2028年1月结束。由于民主党控制着负责确认美联储提名人选的参议院，他们将能够对白宫的下一个人选形成制衡。
Powell decided to stay on as a governor after Warsh took over as chair, in part as a check against Trump. Powell’s board term is scheduled to end in January 2028. With Democrats in control of the Senate — where Fed nominees are confirmed — they’ll be able to act as a check on the White House’s next pick.
参议院民主党人还可能将确认程序拖延到2029年，寄望于届时由一位民主党总统来填补这一空缺。根据法律规定，鲍威尔及任何其他理事都将任职至其继任者获得确认为止。这将是不寻常的一步，但并非完全没有先例：2020年，参议员们对特朗普提名朱迪·谢尔顿表示反对，这位主张恢复金本位的人选并不适合该职位，白宫不得不改而提名资质远为胜任的克里斯托弗·沃勒。
Senate Democrats could also block confirmation until 2029 in hopes that a Democratic president would then fill the vacancy. By statute, Powell and any other board member would continue to serve until their successors are confirmed. That would be an unusual step but not totally without precedent: In 2020, senators balked at Trump’s nomination of Judy Shelton, a gold standard revivalist who was poorly suited for the job, and the White House had to put forth the far more qualified Christopher Waller.
另一个悬而未决的问题是美联储副主席菲利普·杰斐逊将如何抉择。他由拜登选中，于2022年加入理事会，一年后在莱尔·布雷纳德卸任该职、加入国家经济委员会后获得副主席确认。尽管从技术上讲他可以继续担任理事至2036年，但他的领导任期将于明年9月结束，而且美联储高层在失去头衔后转投智库、资产管理公司或学术界的先例并不少见。
The other open question is what Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson will do. Picked by Biden, he joined the Board of Governors in 2022 and was confirmed as vice chair a year later, after Lael Brainard vacated the role to join the National Economic Council. Although he could technically stay on as a governor through 2036, his leadership term ends next September, and there’s a history of Fed brass leaving to join think tanks, asset management firms or academia once they lose the title.
特朗普对美联储独立性的威胁造成了多大代价？彭博经济研究的10年期期限溢价——基本上是投资者为补偿不确定性上升而对较长期债券要求的额外收益率——在特朗普2024年胜选后大幅跃升，并在上个月触及2014年以来的最高水平。
How much has the Trump threat to Fed independence cost? The Bloomberg Economics 10-year term premium — basically, the extra yield investors demand on longer-horizon bonds to compensate for increased uncertainty — jumped significantly after Trump’s 2024 election victory and touched the highest since 2014 last month .
就沃尔什而言，他迄今基本上没有理会外界关于他会受到特朗普恐吓的担忧，在9月的首次政策行动中主持了25个基点的降息。事实上，对于一位长期游说争取近零利率的总统来说，沃尔什这位长期鹰派人物始终是一个令人费解的选择，这一选择可能更多出于个人关系而非战略考量。（他是著名共和党金主罗纳德·劳德的女婿。）
For his part, Warsh has thus far mostly defied concern that he’d be intimidated by Trump, overseeing a quarter-point rate in his first policy move in September. In fact, for a president that has long lobbied for near-zero interest rates, Warsh, a long-time hawk, was always a confusing choice that may have been more personal than strategic. (He’s the son-in-law of prominent Republican donor Ronald Lauder.)
如今特朗普的影响力已被民主党的多数优势所抵消，沃尔什可能会觉得不必再小心翼翼地回避他，并可能倾向于其鹰派立场，这意味着短期利率将适度上升——或许12月加息一次，2027年再加息几次。
With Trump’s sway now negated by Democrats’ majorities, Warsh may feel less pressure to tiptoe around him and could lean into his hawkish tendencies, which would mean modestly higher short-term interest rates — perhaps a rate hike in December and a couple more in 2027.
但民主党对众议院和参议院的控制应有助于阻止白宫对美联储独立性的进一步攻击，而这是极好的消息。这将有助于从借贷成本中剔除一部分不确定性溢价，并为美联储扫清道路，使其能够专注于遏制通胀的工作——通胀已连续近六年困扰美国家庭。
But Democrats’ control of the House and Senate should help stymie any further White House attacks on Fed independence, and that’s excellent news. It will help take some of the uncertainty premium out of borrowing costs, and it clears the way for the Fed to focus on the job of corralling inflation that has vexed American households for nearly six years running.