
随着德克萨斯州各地的选民拒绝共和党人,选出了数十年来首位民主党籍联邦参议员和州长,这一转变在以拉美裔为主的南德克萨斯州表现得最为显著。
As voters across Texas rejected Republicans to elect their first Democratic senator and governor in decades, nowhere was the shift more pronounced than in heavily Latino South Texas.
从布朗斯维尔经拉雷多一直到伊格尔帕斯,该地区以西班牙裔为主的县份以平均超过40个百分点的优势支持民主党人。这与两年前特朗普总统在此取得的进展形成了鲜明对比,当时他横扫了该地区传统的民主党大本营。
From Brownsville through Laredo and up to Eagle Pass, heavily Hispanic counties in the region favored Democrats by margins that averaged over 40 points. That made for a stark contrast with President Donald Trump’s gains two years ago, when he swept the area’s traditional Democratic strongholds.
政策优先事项的转变助推了这一逆转。在前总统乔·拜登任内边境非法越境激增后,移民问题主导了2024年南德克萨斯州的选举。如今,随着特朗普将越境人数降至数十年来最低水平,一项10月民调显示,仅7%的德州西班牙裔将其列为最重要的问题。取而代之的是,38%的人提到了经济或物价高涨。
A shift in policy priorities helped drive the reversal. Concerns over immigration dominated the 2024 election in South Texas after a surge in border crossings under former President Joe Biden. Now, with Trump having dropped the flow to the lowest in decades, just 7% of Hispanic Texans named it as the most important problem in one October survey. Instead, 38% cited the economy or high prices.

在以皮卡和其他大型车辆著称的该州,民调显示燃油价格成为一个特别的担忧。在特朗普对伊朗的战争中,汽油和柴油价格今年大幅上涨。
In a state known for pickup trucks and other large vehicles, fuel prices emerged as a particular concern, the survey showed. Gasoline and diesel prices have jumped this year amid Trump’s war in Iran.
“这是一场关于经济的选举,”民主党策略师、达拉斯学区前董事会主席米格尔·索利斯说。“这不是民主党向拉美裔传递特定信息的问题,而是在谈论西班牙裔最关心的问题,即经济、优质学校和医疗保健。”民主党在拉美裔中的进步并不局限于德克萨斯州。该党在佛罗里达州也取得了进展,尽管不足以赢得选举胜利。
“This was an election about the economy,” said Miguel Solis, a Democratic strategist and former board president of the Dallas school district. “This wasn’t an issue of Democrats’ specific message to Latinos, it was talking about the issues that Hispanics care the most about, which are the economy, good schools and healthcare.”The Democratic advance among Latinos wasn’t limited to Texas. The party also made gains in Florida, even if it they weren’t enough to deliver electoral wins.
据选举分析公司VoteHub统计,民主党联邦参议员候选人安吉·尼克松输给了共和党人阿什利·穆迪,但在以拉美裔为主的选区以约7个百分点的优势获胜。在迈阿密-戴德县以拉美裔为主的多拉尔市,尼克松以超过3个百分点的优势击败穆迪。特朗普在2024年以23个百分点的优势赢得了该市。
Democratic Senate candidate Angie Nixon lost to Republican Ashley Moody but won majority-Latino precincts by about 7 points, according to the elections-analysis firm VoteHub. In Doral, a heavily Latino city in Miami-Dade County, Nixon beat Moody by more than 3 points. Trump carried the city by 23 percentage points in 2024.
但德克萨斯州拉美裔选民的转向,在全州范围内共和党遭遇的惨败中显得尤为关键。
But the Texas shift among Latinos loomed large in the wipeout of Republicans that unfolded around the state.
在里奥格兰德河谷人口最多的伊达尔戈县,民主党参议员提名人詹姆斯·塔拉里科以46个百分点的优势击败了共和党对手肯·帕克斯顿。该县超过90%的居民是拉丁裔,对经济的不满以及特朗普的移民打压政策激化了矛盾,而就在2024年,特朗普曾在该县以3个百分点的优势战胜卡玛拉·哈里斯。
In Hidalgo County, the most populous of the Rio Grande Valley, Democratic Senate nominee James Talarico defeated GOP rival Ken Paxton by 46 points. More than 90% of residents are Latino, and frustration with the economy and Trump’s immigration crackdown have inflamed tempers in a county where Trump notched a 3-point victory over Kamala Harris in 2024.
塔拉里科最大的胜利优势之一出现在斯塔尔县,该县97%的居民是西班牙裔,77%的选民支持他。这一比例比两年前哈里斯在该县获得的支持率高出35个百分点。这一趋势延续到了选票的下层竞选。
One of Talarico’s largest victory margins came in Starr County, where 97% of residents are Hispanic and 77% of voters backed him. That was 35 points more than the percentage Harris got in the county two years ago. The trend reverberated down the ballot.
吉娜·伊诺霍萨当选为该州首位西班牙裔州长,她以巨大优势击败了共和党现任州长格雷格·阿博特。在韦伯县,拉丁裔占人口的95%,伊诺霍萨领先阿博特40个百分点。这一优势几乎是2022年民主党州长提名人贝托·奥罗克在该县取得的领先优势的两倍。
Gina Hinojosa, who won election as the state’s first Hispanic governor, ran up wide margins against Republican incumbent Greg Abbott. In Webb County, where Latinos account for 95% of the population, Hinojosa led Abbott by 40 points. That nearly doubled the margin achieved in 2022 by Democratic gubernatorial nominee Beto O’Rourke.
在特朗普于2024年翻转多个边境县份后,该州由共和党主导的立法机构重新划分了南德克萨斯的三个国会选区,意图赶走民主党人并由共和党候选人取而代之。其假设是该地区的拉丁裔选民将继续忠于共和党。
After Trump flipped many border counties in 2024, the state’s Republican-dominated legislature redrew three South Texas congressional districts with an eye toward ejecting Democrats and replacing them with GOP candidates. The assumption was that the region’s Latino voters would remain loyal to Republicans.
这些改变适得其反,民主党在所有这些选区均取得胜利。他们还翻转了另一个边境选区,律师兼前教师凯蒂·帕迪拉·斯托特击败了共和党人布兰登·埃雷拉,后者是一名枪支制造商和社交媒体网红,人称“AK Guy”。
Those changes backfired, as Democrats swept to victory in all of those districts. They also flipped another border district, where lawyer and former teacher Katy Padilla Stout defeated Republican Brandon Herrera, a firearms manufacturer and social-media influencer known as the AK Guy.