共和党正在进行一场苦战，以捍卫两年前让他们梦想着持久政治重新调整的拉丁裔选票优势。
Republicans are in a dogfight to defend the Latino gains that had them dreaming of a lasting political realignment just two years ago.
为什么这很重要：这种命运逆转在哪里最为明显？就在南德克萨斯州，其中特朗普在2024年创下历史性的得票率——而共和党在2025年重新划定选区地图时，正假设这些拉丁裔选票优势将持续下去。
Why it matters: Nowhere is that reversal of fortune more visible than in South Texas, where President Trump ran up historic numbers in 2024 — and Republicans redrew the map in 2025, assuming those Latino gains would last.
特朗普在2024年的出站民调中获得55%的德克萨斯州拉丁裔选民支持，赢得了靠近边界线18个县中的14个县，以及所有四个里奥格兰德山谷的县。
Trump won 55% of Texas Latino voters in 2024 exit polls, carried 14 of the 18 counties within 20 miles of the border and won all four Rio Grande Valley counties.
民意调查显示，特朗普在德克萨斯州拉丁裔选民中的不满意率自2024年以来急剧上升。
Polling shows Trump's disapproval ratings have skyrocketed among Latinos in Texas since 2024.
聚焦：这种逆转在TX-15选区最为明显，共和党籍众议员莫妮卡·德拉克鲁斯是共和党在南德克萨斯突破的最为显眼的象征。
Zoom in: The reversal is starkest in TX-15, where Rep. Monica De La Cruz was one of the GOP's most visible symbols of its South Texas breakthrough.
特朗普在2024年以18个百分点优势赢得新划定的选区。德拉克鲁斯在上一轮选区划分下以14个百分点获胜。
Trump would have carried the newly-drawn district by 18 percentage points in 2024. De La Cruz won her 2024 race under the previous map by 14 points.
库克政治报告于9月25日将此选区从“倾向共和党”调整为“难以预测”，称公开和私下的民意调查显示此选区处于平局，甚至略有利于民主党籍的特奈诺歌手波比·普利多。
Cook Political Report moved the race from Lean Republican to Toss Up on Sept. 25, saying public and private polling shows the race tied or even favoring Tejano singer and Democrat Bobby Pulido.
数据看点：根据《德克萨斯州信使报》报道的AdImpact数据，民主党竞选活动及其盟友在里奥格兰德山谷的三个有竞争力的众议院选区中，有两个选区的西班牙语广告支出超过共和党。
By the numbers: Democratic campaigns and allied groups are outspending Republican campaigns and groups on Spanish-language ads in two of the three competitive House districts covering the Rio Grande Valley, according to AdImpact data reported by the Texas Tribune.
在由维森特·冈萨雷斯（民主党）掌控的TX-34选区，民主党竞选活动和团体在西班牙语广告上的支出达到160万美元，远超共和党的160万美元。
In TX-34, held by Vicente Gonzalez (D), Democratic campaigns and groups have spent $2.7 million on Spanish-language ads, compared with $1.6 million on the Republican side.
在TX-15选区，民主党团体在西班牙语广告上的支出是共和党的两倍多。
In TX-15, Democratic groups have spent more than twice as much as Republican groups on Spanish-language ads.
TX-28打破这一趋势：共和党在西班牙语广告上的支出仅略高于民主党，用于挑战民主党籍的亨利·库埃拉尔。
TX-28 bucks the trend: Republicans have narrowly outspent Democrats on Spanish-language ads to unseat Henry Cuellar (D).
远距离观察：TX-34也是“难以预测”，而TX-28则是“倾向民主党”。
Zoom out: TX-34 is also a Toss Up, while TX-28 is Lean Democratic.
新近重新划定的TX-35选区已从“极可能共和党”调整为“倾向共和党”。
The newly redrawn TX-35 has moved from Likely Republican to Lean Republican.
众议院多数党行动委员会（House Majority PAC）周二在得克萨斯州第15、28和34选区再次发起一轮广告攻势，为两名在任的民主党议员辩护，同时继续针对德拉克鲁斯（De La Cruz）。
House Majority PAC launched another round of ads Tuesday in TX-15, TX-28 and TX-34, defending two Democratic incumbents while continuing to target De La Cruz.
核心结论：NBC新闻/Telemundo的一项新民意调查显示，全美拉丁裔民众支持民主党掌控国会，支持率为59%对35%，领先24个百分点——这一优势大约是同一项民调在2024年对民主党所测得差距的两倍。
The bottom line: A new NBC News/Telemundo poll shows Latinos nationally favor Democratic control of Congress 59%-35%, a 24-point advantage — roughly double the margin the same poll found for Democrats in 2024.
最近一项由TelevisaUnivision进行的民调显示，在得克萨斯州这三个具有竞争力的众议院选区中，拉丁裔选民的投票倾向已从2024年总统选举时的44%对44%平局，转变为2026年国会选举中支持民主党56%对36%。
A recent TelevisaUnivision poll found Latino voters in the three competitive Texas House districts shifting from a 44%-44% split in their 2024 presidential vote to 56%-36% Democratic on the 2026 congressional ballot.