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洛杉矶时报

许多拉丁裔已对特朗普感到厌倦,这一转变在得克萨斯州尤为显著Many Latinos are over Trump. The shift is especially striking in Texas

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一名骑在马上的男子率领着一队挂着政治标语的皮卡车,沿着一条双车道道路行进。A man on horseback leads pickup trucks with bearing political banners in a parade down a two-lane road

身着熨烫平整的牛仔裤和牛仔帽,数十名骑马者和皮卡车辆司机在得克萨斯州南端附近的埃丁堡一条土路上扬起尘土。他们参加的是一场卡巴尔加塔,即传统的骑马游行,带着一个政治信息:让特哈诺歌手鲍比·普利多进入国会。有些人是终身民主党人,另一些人两年前曾投票支持特朗普总统。但这个周六,他们都为普利多骑行,普利多是一名民主党人,试图夺回特朗普在2024年以18个百分点优势赢得的一个众议院席位。

Clad in pressed jeans and cowboy hats, dozens of riders on horseback and drivers in pickups kicked up dust along a dirt road in Edinburg, near the southern tip of Texas. They were there for a cabalgata, a traditional horse procession, with a political message: Send Tejano singer Bobby Pulido to Congress. Some were lifelong Democrats. Others had voted for President Trump two years ago. But on this Saturday, they all rode for Pulido, a Democrat trying to flip a House seat Trump carried by 18 percentage points in 2024.

其中包括54岁的大卫·洛佩兹,他骑着棕色马匹“黑杰克”。他投票支持特朗普,因为认为特朗普是个好商人。但现在,洛佩兹说,总统的关税损害了附近麦克艾伦他的卡车和拖车修理店,生意比去年下降了约20%。“我要全程投票给民主党。特朗普不再做得好了,”洛佩兹说。“我们需要找到一起走出困境的办法。”洛佩兹是美国拉丁裔社区中正在蔓延的转变的一部分。

Among them was David Lopez, 54, astride his brown horse, Black Jack. He voted for Trump because he saw him as a good businessman. But now, Lopez says the president's tariffs have hurt his truck and trailer repair shop in nearby McAllen, and business is down about 20% from last year. "I am voting Democrats all the way. Trump is no longer doing a good job," Lopez said. "We need to find a way to make it out of this together." Lopez is part of a shift rippling through Latino communities across the country.

在帮助特朗普在国会由共和党控制的情况下重返白宫两年后,拉丁裔选民对执政党的支持正在减退,原因是对不断上涨的成本以及政府在移民执法方面采取的强硬手段感到沮丧。2024年,特朗普赢得了48%拉丁裔选民的支持,扩大了共和党在长期倾向民主党的群体中的进展。现在,这种支持正在急剧下降。民调显示,特朗普在拉丁裔登记选民中的支持率已从第二任期开始时的38%下降到24%。

Two years after helping return Trump to the White House with a Republican-controlled Congress, Latino voters are souring on the party in power, fueled by frustration over rising costs and the administration's aggressive approach to immigration enforcement. In 2024, Trump won the support of 48% of Latino voters, expanding Republican gains with a group that has long leaned Democratic. Now, that support is cratering. The president's approval rating among Latino registered voters has fallen to 24% from 38% at the start of his second term, polls show.

2026年10月16日,在德克萨斯州梅赛德斯市举行的一场集会上,人们在聆听国会候选人鲍比·普利多(Bobby Pulido)的演讲时欢呼雀跃。People cheer while listening to congressional candidate Bobby Pulido at an Oct. 16, 2026, rally in Mercedes, Texas.

根据皮尤研究中心本月发布的一项民调,在投票支持特朗普的拉丁裔中,65%的人表示计划在11月3日支持共和党,而超过三分之一的人表示他们准备投票给民主党或尚未决定。更广泛地说,拉丁裔选民在众议院选举中支持民主党的比例为51%对24%,而那些缺席2024年选举的人正倾向于支持民主党。

Among Latinos who voted for Trump, 65% say they plan to back Republicans on Nov. 3, while more than a third said they were ready to vote for a Democrat or were undecided, according to a Pew Research Center poll released this month. More broadly, Latino voters favor Democrats in House races 51% to 24%, and those who sat out the 2024 election are leaning toward Democrats.

这些转变可能有助于决定众议院的控制权,部分原因是德克萨斯州和佛罗里达州的共和党人重新划定了国会选区地图,赌注是他们在2024年拉丁裔选民中的得票优势能延续到中期选举。在里奥格兰德河谷边境地区,这一考验最为严峻,那里的选民表示,特朗普未能兑现他的经济承诺,其政府在移民执法方面走得太远,这是一个他们希望得到解决,但应以人道方式处理的问题。

Those shifts could help decide control of the House, in part because Republicans in Texas and Florida redrew their congressional maps betting that their 2024 gains among Latino voters would last through the midterms. Nowhere is that test sharper than in the borderlands of the Rio Grande Valley, where voters say that Trump has failed to deliver on his economic promises and that his administration has gone too far on immigration enforcement, an issue they wanted addressed, but humanely.

作为拉丁格莱美奖得主及民主党候选人,鲍比·普利多于2026年10月17日在德克萨斯州埃丁堡市的伯特·奥格登竞技场(Bert Ogden Arena)进行了演唱。Bobby Pulido, a Latin Grammy winner and Democrat running for Texas’ 15th Congressional District, sings at the Bert Ogden Arena on Oct. 17, 2026, in Edinburg, Texas.

在拉丁裔占多数的地区进行的二十多次采访中,选民表示,他们受到的驱动力更多来自于被忽视的挫败感,而非政党忠诚,并希望选举那些认真对待他们选票的政客。他们说,跟上不断上涨的成本变得更加困难,包括为他们的卡车和每周采购提供动力的柴油。建筑商表示,由于工人被拘留或驱逐出境,建设项目已陷入停滞。

In more than two dozen interviews in the Latino-majority region, voters say they are driven less by party loyalty and more by frustrations that they have been taken for granted, and want to elect politicians who take their votes seriously. They say it has become harder to keep up with rising costs, including for the diesel that fuels their trucks and their weekly grocery runs. Builders say construction projects have ground to a halt as workers are detained or deported.

小企业主表示,销售额下降,要么是因为顾客不敢出门,要么是因为关税推高了他们的成本。48岁的尼迪亚·奥利瓦雷斯和她的丈夫阿努尔福·奥利瓦雷斯,55岁,在2024年投票支持特朗普,但对他在经济和社区移民突袭方面的处理方式日益感到沮丧。今年,他们支持普利多,对阵德克萨斯州第15国会选区的共和党众议员莫妮卡·德拉克鲁斯。

And small-business owners say sales have dropped, either because customers are afraid to leave their homes or because tariffs have driven up their costs. Nidia Olivarez, 48, and her husband, Arnulfo, 55, voted for Trump in 2024 but have grown frustrated with how he has handled the economy and immigration raids in their community. This year, they're backing Pulido over GOP Rep. Monica De La Cruz in Texas' 15th Congressional District.

但这并非因为他们对民主党改变了看法。“我们只投票给普利多,不投票给其他民主党人,”奥利瓦雷斯说。这对夫妇仍不确定是否会支持任何共和党人。对他们来说,投票是个人的。他们长期以来一直喜欢普利多的快节奏德克萨斯音乐,并喜欢他是他们社区中一个熟悉的人物。她表示,她们信任他。她们对选票顶端的共和党人则不太确定:参议院候选人肯·帕克斯顿,他正在与民主党人詹姆斯·塔拉里科竞争,以及寻求连任的州长格雷格·阿博特。

But not because they've had a change of heart about the Democratic Party. "We are only voting for Pulido, not other Democrats," Olivarez said. The couple are still unsure whether they'll support any Republicans. For them, the vote is personal. They've long loved Pulido's Tejano music and like that he's a familiar figure in their community. They trust him, she said. They're less sure about the Republicans at the top of the ticket: Ken Paxton, the Senate nominee running against Democrat James Talarico, and Gov. Greg Abbott, who is seeking reelection.

“我们想看看谁会继续出现在这一地区,”奥利瓦雷斯说。“这对我们很重要。”

"We want to see who continues to show up in the area," Olivarez said. "That matters to us."

休斯顿大学政治学教授布兰登·罗廷豪斯表示,德克萨斯州的拉美裔选民越来越愿意考虑候选人而非政党。“他们不只是在寻找要与哪个政党结盟。他们想知道他们投票给的人是否值得信任,”罗廷豪斯说。这种动态将在德克萨斯州第15、第28和第34国会选区以及参议员席位的竞争性选战中发挥作用,后者已被证明是今年最昂贵、关注度最高的竞选之一。

Latino voters in Texas are increasingly willing to consider candidate over party, said Brandon Rottinghaus, a professor of political science at the University of Houston. "They are not just looking for what party to align with. They want to know that they can trust the person they're voting for," Rottinghaus said. That dynamic will play a role in the competitive races for Texas' 15th, 28th and 34th congressional districts and in the Senate seat, which has proved to be one of the most expensive and high-profile contests this year.

在2026年10月于埃丁堡市举行的音乐会上,当泰哈诺歌手鲍比·普利多演唱最后一首歌曲《Desvelado》时,现场观众们热情高涨、欢呼不断。People cheer during Tejano singer Bobby Pulido’s last song “Desvelado” during a concert in October in Edinburg, Texas.

作为共和党担忧的迹象,特朗普和副总统万斯本月已多次前往德克萨斯州为选民造势。在最近几周里,特朗普对显示他在拉美裔选民中失去支持的民调不屑一顾。“我认为我们做得很棒,我赢得了西班牙裔选民,”特朗普周一对记者说。“我做的比历史上任何其他共和党人都多,我获得了巨大的西班牙裔支持。”

In a sign of GOP concerns, Trump and Vice President JD Vance have repeatedly traveled to Texas this month to rally voters. In recent weeks, Trump has brushed off polls that show him losing ground with Latino voters. "I think we are doing great, I won Hispanics," Trump told reporters on Monday. "I've done more than any other Republican in history, I got tremendous Hispanics."

10月初,当被问及那些表示感到被其政府的移民和经济政策背叛的拉美裔选民时,特朗普对他们的回应是“我们必须做我们必须做的事”,指的是他对移民的打压行动。

In early October, Trump was asked about Latino voters who say they feel betrayed by his administration's immigration and economic policies. His message to them was that "we have to do what we have to do," in reference to his immigration crackdown.

埃丁堡的社会工作者格洛丽亚·罗德里格斯目睹了移民突袭对儿童造成的影响。自特朗普重返白宫以来,她已帮助为数百名父母或监护人被拘留或驱逐的孩子协调服务。她担心其中许多人会患上创伤后应激障碍。“他们在移民问题上所做的一切都太过分了,”50岁的罗德里格斯说,她将在选票上所有职位都投给民主党人。她15岁的女儿安杰丽娜说,她曾告诉母亲投给民主党人,部分原因是她担心朋友会被驱逐。

Gloria Rodriguez, a social worker in Edinburg, has seen the impact the immigration raids have had on children. Since Trump returned to the White House, she has helped coordinate services for hundreds of kids whose parents or caregivers have been detained or deported. She worries many of them will develop post-traumatic stress disorders. "Everything they are doing with immigration is too much," said Rodriguez, 50, who is voting for Democrats down the ballot. Her 15-year-old daughter, Angelina, says she told her mother to vote for Democrats, in part because she is scared her friends will be deported.

经营一家向学区销售乐器的音乐店的马里亚奇音乐家路易斯·苏斯泰塔(Luis Sustaita),今年49岁,他说他将投票给民主党,因为他对现代共和党的价值观感到灰心。“已经没有老派共和党人了。全都是MAGA(让美国再次伟大)派,”住在韦斯拉科的苏斯泰塔说。“他们过去关注民众。特朗普只关注自己,只想让自己发财。”

Luis Sustaita, 49, a mariachi who owns a music store that sells instruments to school districts, is voting Democrat this year because he says he is disheartened by the values of the modern-day Republican Party. "There are no old-school Republicans anymore. It is all MAGA," said Sustaita, who lives in Weslaco. "They used to be about the people. Trump is all about himself and making himself rich."

在南德克萨斯,共和党和民主党都在试图以更个人化的方式争取选民。在很多方面,这关乎身份认同,而非党派归属。在这个拉美裔占多数的第15国会选区,普利多的竞选口号是:“不站红队,不站蓝队——南德克萨斯,我站在你这边。”在接受采访时,普利多补充说,他给拉美裔选民的信息是:“我听得清清楚楚,我相信我和你们拥有共同的价值观。”

In South Texas, Republicans and Democrats alike are trying to court voters on a more personal level. It is about identity more than political affiliation in many ways. In the majority-Latino 15th Congressional District, Pulido's campaign slogan is "Not team red, not team blue — South Texas I am team you." In an interview, Pulido added that his message to Latino voters is: "I hear you loud and clear, and I believe I share values with you."

2026年10月17日,在埃丁堡市的伯特·奥格登竞技场举行的音乐会上,6岁的罗德里戈·普利多(Rodrigo Pulido)与母亲玛丽安娜·莫拉莱斯(Mariana Morales)一起欢呼雀跃,他们的父亲鲍比·普利多正在演唱这首歌曲《Desvelado》。Rodrigo Pulido, 6, with his mother, Mariana Morales, cheers as his father, Bobby Pulido, sings the last song, “Desvelado,” during his concert at the Bert Ogden Arena on Oct. 17, 2026, in Edinburg, Texas.

德拉克鲁兹曾是一名保险代理人,是特朗普的坚定盟友。她说,拉美裔“厌倦了被视为理所当然”,并表示普利多“有一些不错的履历,但他是那个让富人更富、让我们更穷的腐败体制的产物。”

De La Cruz, a former insurance agent and a staunch Trump ally, said Latinos are "tired of being taken for granted" and said Pulido "has some nice records, but he's a product of the same corrupt system that got rich and made us poorer."

“我在南德克萨斯长大,眼睁睁看着‘老乡体制’从我们这里偷窃,而我们的家庭却在挣扎求生,”德拉克鲁兹在一份声明中说。“你辛苦工作,只想给家人多一点保障,想要安全的社区。我为你减税,保护社会保障和医疗保险,支持边境巡逻队员,我每天都在努力降低汽油和食品杂货价格。”这一信息能否引起选民共鸣,将在11月3日见分晓。

"I grew up in South Texas watching the compadre system steal from us while our families struggled to get by," De La Cruz said in a statement. "You work hard and want a little more for your family and safe communities. I cut your taxes, protected Social Security and Medicare, stood with Border Patrol agents, and I'm fighting every day to bring down gas and grocery prices." Whether that message will resonate with voters will be seen on Nov. 3.

蒂娜·特雷维尼奥(Tina Treviño),61岁,她说希望“la raza”——墨西哥裔美国人社区使用的一个词,被广泛理解为“民众”——能给德克萨斯带来政治变革。她说,体制对拉美裔不起作用,并相信民主党能够带来这种变革。“这是关于奇卡诺力量,”特雷维尼奥说。“我们比以往任何时候都更需要它。”

Tina Treviño, 61, said she hopes “la raza” — a term used in the Mexican American community that is widely understood as “the people” — will deliver political change to Texas. She says the system is not working for Latinos, and believes Democrats will be able to bring that change. “It’s about Chicano power,” Treviño said. “We need that more than ever.”

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