众议院多数党的道路穿过亚利桑那州、科罗拉多州和德克萨斯州等州的拉美裔人口高度集中的选区。
The path to a House majority on Capitol Hill runs through heavily Latino districts in states such as Arizona, Colorado and Texas.
乔纳森·J·库珀、尼古拉斯·里卡尔迪、瓦莱丽·冈萨雷斯 亚利桑那州卡萨格兰德 — 克里斯·马丁内斯感觉唐纳德·特朗普让他出了丑。
JONATHAN J. COOPER, NICHOLAS RICCARDI, VALERIE GONZALEZ CASA GRANDE, Ariz. — Chris Martinez feels like Donald Trump has made a fool of him.
这位来自亚利桑那州卡萨格兰德的28岁维修技术员曾投票支持共和党总统，期望能看到经济繁荣、无战乱的局面。然而，如今油价居高不下，马丁内斯不得不将一辆车交还给贷款人，他把食品采购转向了折扣超市，并目睹美国在伊朗问题上陷入数月的冲突。
The 28-year-old maintenance technician from Casa Grande, Arizona, voted for the Republican president expecting to get a thriving economy no wars Instead, gas prices are so high that Martinez returned one of his vehicles to the lender, he shifted his food shopping to a discount grocer and he has watched as the United States has spent months in conflict with Iran.
“他对我们什么都没做，也没给我们带来好处，”马丁内斯说。“而且这真的很糟，因为我被骗了，我觉得自己像个傻瓜。” 作为一个群体，拉美裔两年前转向支持特朗普，帮助他在共和党控制的国会协助下重返白宫。如今，像马丁内斯这样的许多人对总统及其政党产生了不满，这可能在11月3日的选举中改变华盛顿的权力格局。“我曾一度向右倾斜，但现在我又回到了中间，”马丁内斯说。
“He’s doing nothing for us, to benefit us,” Martinez said. “And it kind of sucks because I got duped and I feel like a dummy.”As a group, Latinos shifted toward Trump two years ago, helping return him to the White House with a Republican-controlled Congress. Now, many like Martinez are souring on the president and his party, which could upend the balance of power in Washington in the Nov. 3 elections“I went right for a while, but I’m back to the middle,” Martinez said.
美国众议院多数党的道路穿过亚利桑那州、科罗拉多州和德克萨斯州等州的拉美裔人口高度集中的选区，民主党正寄望于失望的特朗普支持者转回他们的阵营。然而，目前尚不清楚民主党是否已经赢得了那些对两党都缺乏强烈忠诚度的选民。
The path to a U.S. House majority runs through heavily Latino districts in states such as Arizona, Colorado and Texas, where Democrats are counting on disaffected Trump supporters to swing back their way. It is unclear, however, whether Democrats have sealed the deal with voters who lack strong allegiance to either party.
马丁内斯就是其中之一，他尚不确定自己是否会在中期选举中投票。
Martinez, for one, is not sure if he is going to vote at all in the midterms.
亚利桑那州的一个农业小镇正面临转型 克里斯·马丁内斯居住的亚利桑那州卡萨格兰德镇有7万人口，位于凤凰城和图森之间的十字路口，驱车一小时即可到达每座城市。镇中心古朴，周边是规划好的住宅区，为那些被大城市房价排挤的人提供了经济适用房。封闭式高尔夫球场社区吸引了许多退休人士。
An Arizona farming town faces a transition Casa Grande, the town of 70,000 people where Martinez lives, sits at a crossroads between Phoenix and Tucson, an hour’s drive from each. There is a quaint downtown surrounded by master-planned developments offering affordable housing for people priced out of larger cities. Gated golf-course communities attract retirees.
该镇大部分地区位于亚利桑那州第6国会选区的北端，该选区历来是全国竞争最激烈的选区之一。共和党人胡安·西斯科马尼正在寻求第三个任期。两年前，西斯科马尼以2.5个百分点的优势获胜，而特朗普的胜利幅度不到1个百分点。
Much of the town sits at the northern tip of Arizona’s 6th Congressional District, historically one of the most closely matched in the country. Republican Juan Ciscomani is seeking a third term. Two years ago, Ciscomani won by 2.5 percentage points and Trump won by less than 1 point.
这一次，西斯科马尼在没有直接批评总统或其政策的情况下，悄悄地与特朗普拉开了距离。这位国会议员大力宣传自己的移民背景——他出生于墨西哥，童年时随家人移居美国——并将自己塑造成独立和两党合作的代表。“我不是任何人的橡皮图章，”他在一次采访中说。
This time, Ciscomani is subtly creating distance from Trump without directly criticizing the president or his policies. The congressman talks up his immigrant story — he was born in Mexico and moved to the U.S. as a kid — and frames himself as independent and bipartisan. “I’m not a rubber stamp for anyone,” he says in one .
如果西斯科马尼保住他的席位，那将要归功于像克里斯·杜兰特这样的人，这位61岁的选民在最近的几次选举中一直支持共和党，下个月也很可能继续这样做。
If Ciscomani retains his seat, it will be thanks to people like Chris Durant, 61, who has been voting for Republicans in recent elections and will probably do so again next month.
“我们真的不担心油价和物价等等，”杜兰特说，当时他和妻子正把杂货装进皮卡，准备送给岳母。
“We really don’t worry about gas and prices and what not,” Durant said as he and his wife loaded their pickup with groceries for his mother-in-law.
西斯科马尼的民主党对手是乔安娜·门多萨。这名前海军陆战队员强调自己艰苦的成长经历——她是移民农工的女儿，父母曾在靠近卡萨格兰德的田地里劳作。
Ciscomani’s Democratic opponent is JoAnna Mendoza. The former Marine emphasizes her own hardscrabble upbringing as the daughter of immigrant farmworkers who worked the fields close to Casa Grande.
“如果人们知道你来自社区并了解他们的生活方式，他们就会信任你，”门多萨在今年早些时候的一次采访中说道。
“People trust you if they know that you came from the community and understand their way of life,” Mendoza said in an interview earlier this year.
大多数西班牙裔选民不赞成特朗普。在2024年竞选期间，特朗普在西班牙裔选民中取得了广泛进展，最终重返白宫。
Most Hispanic voters disapprove of Trump Trump made broad gains among Hispanics during the 2024 campaign that returned him to the White House.
当时，根据覆盖全球超过12万选民的AP VoteCast调查，大约十分之七的西班牙裔选民对食品和杂货成本“非常担忧”，这一比例略高于总体选民的约三分之二。在这些选民中，特朗普具有明显优势。
Back then, about 7 in 10 Hispanic voters were “very concerned” about the cost of food and groceries, slightly more than about two-thirds of voters overall, according to AP VoteCast, a survey of more than 120,000 voters nationwide. Trump had a clear advantage among those voters.
如今，根据美联社-NORC公共事务研究中心10月份的民意调查，大约十分之六的西班牙裔选民不赞成特朗普对总统职务的处理。超过十分之七的选民不赞成他在经济方面的表现。
Now, about 6 in 10 Hispanic voters disapprove of Trump’s handling of the presidency, according to an Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll from October. More than 7 in 10 disapprove of his performance on the economy.
一项在九月进行的美联社-NORC民意调查显示，西班牙裔选民对杂货和住房成本的担忧程度高于选民总体，且70%的人认为价格上涨更多是由于特朗普的政策，而非他无法控制的因素。
An AP-NORC poll conducted in September showed that Hispanic voters are more concerned than voters overall about the cost of groceries and housing, and 70% blame Trump’s policies more than factors outside his control for higher prices.
政治顾问迈克·马德里表示，西班牙裔选民今年可能远离共和党的潜在转变是由反特朗普情绪驱动的，而非对民主党的喜爱。马德里是《拉美世纪》一书的作者，该书讲述拉美裔选民的故事，同时也是《拉美选民》播客的联合主持人。
Their potential shift away from Republicans this year would be driven by anti-Trump sentiment, not a love of Democrats, said Mike Madrid, a political consultant who wrote “The Latino Century,” a book about Latino voters, and co-hosts “The Latino Vote” podcast.
他说，拉美裔正处于“去党派化”过程中，他们正在拒绝与两党的强烈关联，因为两党都未能有效回应工薪阶层的经济关切。
Latinos are in the midst of a “dealignment,” rejecting strong associations with both parties because neither is speaking effectively to working class economic concerns, he said.
“拉美裔选民正从一个基于种族和民族的投票群体转变为一个以经济、口袋、阶级为基础的选民群体，”马德里说。“首先弄清楚这一点的政党很可能在接下来的一代中占据主导地位。”
“The Latino electorate is moving from a racial-and-ethnic voting bloc to an economic, pocketbook, class-based voter,” Madrid said. “And the party that figures that out first is the party that will probably dominate for the next generation.”
根据十月份的美联社-NORC民意调查，西班牙裔对民主党的看法大致持平。他们对共和党的看法更为负面，55%的人持不利看法，38%的人持有利看法。
Hispanics are about evenly split on their view of the Democratic Party, according to the October AP-NORC poll. Their views of the Republican Party are more negative, with 55% having an unfavorable view and 38% having a favorable one.
经济是科罗拉多州选举的核心议题。在丹佛的一个最近早晨，民主党州议员曼尼·鲁蒂内尔站在一群工会木匠面前，卷起袖子展示一个伤疤。这个伤疤是他为了维持生计而献血超过100次留下的痕迹。
The economy is at the center of a Colorado contest On a recent morning in Denver, Democratic state lawmaker Manny Rutinel stood before a crowd of union carpenters and rolled up his sleeve to show off a scar. The mark is from when he sold his blood more than 100 times to make ends meet.
“我是单亲妈妈的儿子。她来美国是为了给我美国梦。我们为这个国家努力工作，”鲁蒂内尔对喧闹的人群说，这些人后来在全国最受关注的选举之一中为他进行了拉票活动。
“I’m the son of a single mom. She came to America to give me the American Dream. We worked hard for this country,” Rutinel told the boisterous crowd that fanned out to canvas for him in one of the country’s most-watched races.
鲁蒂内尔正在科罗拉多州第8国会选区挑战共和党众议员加布·埃文斯。该选区从蓝领丹佛郊区延伸至该州北部富含能源的农场和牧场。拉美裔是该选区最大的单一民族群体，现任议员和挑战者均为拉美裔。埃文斯以不足1个百分点的优势获胜，而特朗普则以2个百分点的优势获胜。鲁蒂内尔自赢得提名以来，一直将焦点放在经济问题上。“该选区的人们觉得他们被欺骗和背叛了，”他在接受采访时说。
Rutinel is challenging Republican Rep. Gabe Evans in Colorado’s 8th Congressional District, which stretches from blue-collar Denver suburbs to energy-rich farm and ranchland in the northern stretch of the state. Latinos are the district’s single largest ethnic group, and both the incumbent and challenger are Hispanic. Evans won by less than 1 percentage point while Trump won by 2 points. Rutinel has focused relentlessly on the economy since winning the nomination. “The folks around the district feel they’ve been lied to and betrayed,” he said in an interview.
埃文斯是一名40岁的前警察中尉，他将鲁蒂内尔描述为具有左翼活动家和自由派立法者的记录。
Evans, a 40-year-old former police lieutenant, has portrayed Rutinel as having a record as a left-wing activist and liberal lawmaker.
“去问选区里的任何拉美裔，你认为我们应该加强边境安全吗？你认为我们应该清除坏人吗？你认为我们应该帮助好人吗？他们会说是的，”埃文斯在接受采访时说。他的祖父是墨西哥移民。
“Go ask any Hispanic in the district, do you think we should secure the border? Do you think we should get rid of the bad guys? Do you think we should help the good guys? They’ll say yes,” Evans, whose grandfather was a Mexican immigrant, said in an interview.
47岁的卡车司机何塞·蒙塔尔沃在2024年支持民主党总统候选人卡玛拉·哈里斯，但仍投票给埃文斯。他喜欢在两党之间分票投票，但表示今年不会这样做，因为他为了省钱不得不更换保险公司和手机运营商。
Jose Montalvo, a 47-year-old trucker, voted for Evans even though he supported Democrat Kamala Harris for president in 2024. He likes to split his ticket between the parties but does not think he will do that this year after he needed to change insurers and cellphone providers to save money.
蒙塔尔沃对特朗普处理油价的方式感到不满，他说：“我责怪他导致燃油方面的问题。”他将这种批评延伸到了所有共和党人。
Montalvo is frustrated by Trump’s handling of gas prices, saying “I blame him for the fuel side of things.”That is a criticism he extends to all Republicans.
玛丽亚·德尔·卡门·罗哈斯是一名归化公民，在美国生活了36年。她说，她震惊地发现竟然有拉美裔支持特朗普和她认为经常贬低移民的现代共和党。
Maria del Carmen Rojas, a naturalized citizen who has lived in the United States for 36 years, said she is shocked that any Latinos could back Trump and a modern Republican Party that she thinks regularly denigrates immigrants.
她有四个孩子都是美国公民，其中一个儿子曾在阿富汗战争中服役。她一生都在工厂工作，并担任保姆来抚养孩子。如今她在购买日用品方面举步维艰。
She has four children who are U.S. citizens, including a son who served in the war in Afghanistan. She has spent her life working in factories and serving as a nanny to raise her children. Now she struggles to buy groceries.
“我们拉美裔对这个国家的贡献非常大，我们缴纳的税收，我们提供的服务，”她说。
“We Latinos contribute very much to this country, the taxes we pay, the service we provide,” she said.
德克萨斯州里奥格兰德谷的挫败感日益加剧。一块写着“需要祈祷吗？”的木牌，摆在德克萨斯州埃丁堡一条繁忙的郊区步道旁，桌上还放着免费发放的《圣经》，那是一个炎热的十月夜晚。
Frustration mounts in Texas’ Rio Grande Valley A wooden sign that said “need prayer?” sat on a table with free Bibles along a busy suburban walking trail in Edinburg, Texas, on a hot October evening.
该镇属于德克萨斯州第15国会选区，特朗普在此以18个百分点的优势获胜，但如今该选区被视为选举日的关键战场之一。
The town is part of the state’s 15th Congressional District, which Trump carried by 18 percentage points but is now viewed as a top Election Day battleground.
站在桌子后面的42岁的托马斯·塞特雷拉说，他对政治日益失望，发现自己在快进浏览竞选活动。尽管他倾向于投票给共和党，但未来他可能不会这样做。
Standing behind the table, Thomas Centrella, 42, said he has grown disillusioned with politics and finds himself fast-forwarding through campaign s. Even though he tends to vote Republican, he might not in the future.
塞特雷拉表示，在特朗普的第一个任期内，“我觉得他当时走在正确的道路上，但我认为现在情况已经变得奇怪了。”他表示自己不太可能投民主党一票，但未来可能会选择不投票或转为独立人士。
During Trump’s first term, Centrella said, “I feel like he was going in a good direction, but I think now that it’s just gotten weird.”He doubts he would ever vote for a Democrat but said he might skip elections or turn independent in the future.
已退休的玛丽亚·埃尔萨·冈萨雷斯表示，她将再次支持该选区的共和党众议员莫尼卡·德拉·克鲁兹，而不是民主党候选人、特哈诺音乐明星鲍比·普利多。冈萨雷斯用西班牙语说，普利多“除了长得好看和靠唱歌出名之外，没有任何其他准备。”普里西拉·奥利瓦雷斯，46岁，公共教育教师，正在步道上散步，她在中期选举中尚未决定投票对象。
Maria Elsa Gonzalez, who is retired, said she will again support the district’s Republican congresswoman, Monica de la Cruz, instead of Democrat Bobby Pulido a Tejano music star. Speaking in Spanish, Gonzalez said Pulido “doesn’t have any preparation other than a pretty face and the fame of singing pretty.”Priscilla Olivarez, 46, a public education teacher who was walking the trail is undecided in the midterms.
她成长过程中一直是民主党人，但在上届总统大选中投了共和党票。如今，她对经济感到失望，认为生活成本增长速度快于工资增长，她经常自己掏腰包来帮助支付课堂上的费用。
She grew up as a Democrat and voted Republican in the last presidential election. Today, she is disappointed with an economy where costs seem to be growing faster than wages and she often digs into her own pocket to help pay for things in the classroom.
“我目前持独立立场，因为我目前不同意任何一方的立场，”她说。里卡尔迪从丹佛报道，冈萨雷斯从德克萨斯州埃丁堡报道。
“I stand independent right now because I don’t agree with either side right now,” she said. Riccardi reported from Denver and Gonzalez from Edinburg, Texas.