德克萨斯州——塔诺·蒂赫雷纳（Tano Tijerina）有话要说。
TEXAS —Tano Tijerina had a confession to make.
“我想告诉大家一些我从未想过会在这里说出口的事情，”这位前美国职业棒球小联盟球员、同时也是德克萨斯州国会候选人，在达拉斯举行的共和党中期选举大会上如此说道。
"I want to tell you something I never thought I'd have to say from a stage like this," Tijerina, a former minor league baseball player and a Texas congressional candidate, said during a speech at the Republican midterm convention in Dallas.
“我曾经是民主党人。”这个声明其实并不令人意外——蒂赫雷纳曾三次以民主党候选人的身份当选韦伯县（Webb County）法官（分别是在2014年、2018年和2022年）。他在自己所在的、拉丁裔选民占多数的德克萨斯州南部边境选区开展竞选活动时，将这次“改党”行为作为自己竞选策略的核心部分。
"I used to be a Democrat The line was hardly a bombshell. Tijerina had been elected three times for Webb County judge — in 2014, 2018 and 2022 — on the Democratic ticket. And he's made his 2024 defection a key part of his campaign in the majority-Latino, South Texas border district in which he's running.
然而，蒂赫雷纳的这一声明立刻引发了观众的抗议声和嘘声。为了澄清自己的立场，他迅速表示自己已经彻底摒弃了过去的民主党习惯。
But Tijerina's admission elicited shouts of "No!" and boos. Just to be sure, he quickly made clear he had kicked his old Democratic habits.
“我是一个喜欢吃牛肉、喜欢开卡车、会使用枪支、虔诚信仰耶稣、双手粗糙的牛仔；我会为德克萨斯州南部的事业全力以赴地奋斗！”蒂赫雷纳一边说着，一边戴着米色的牛仔帽、穿着紧身的蓝色西装（这套西装将他的二头肌凸显得淋漓尽致），在热烈的掌声中发表了这番演讲。
"I'm a beef-eating, truck-driving, gun-slinging, … Bible-thumping, Jesus-loving, calloused-hand cowboy that's going to fight like hell for South Texas," Tijerina — looking like a Texas brawler in a beige cowboy hat and a tight blue suit that hugged his biceps —thundered over a hearty round of applause.
蒂赫雷纳属于这样一个群体：他们长期以来一直倾向于支持民主党，但最近开始表现出愿意为不同政党投票的倾向。这个群体在决定今年11月国会选举的结果方面可能起到关键作用。
Tijerina is part of a coalition of Hispanic and Latino voters who have long leaned Democratic but have more recently shown a willingness to vote for both parties. The group could be critical in deciding control of Congress this November.
2024年，全美的西班牙裔和拉丁裔选民中出现了大量转向共和党的趋势，这帮助唐纳德·特朗普成功连任总统。在蒂赫雷纳参选的德克萨斯州第28选区，选民们将选票投给了特朗普（投票比例比四年前支持乔·拜登时高出7个百分点）。不过，他们仍然支持现任民主党议员亨利·库埃拉尔（Henry Cuellar）；蒂赫雷纳希望在今年11月的选举中击败库埃拉尔，帮助他连任第11个任期。
Hispanic and Latino voters nationwide moved rightward in 2024 in surprisingly large numbers and helped deliver a second presidential term to Donald Trump In the congressional district in which Tijerina is running, Texas' 28th, voters opted for Trump by 7 percentage points after backing President Joe Biden four years earlier. However, they stuck with their Democratic congressman, Rep. Henry Cuellar whom Tijerina hopes to pick off in November, reelecting Cuellar to an 11th term.
在2024年大选中共和党赢得白宫和国会两院控制权后，党内对西班牙裔选民向右转可能反映出永久性重新对齐的乐观情绪高涨。过去两年，在拥有大量西班牙裔人口的德克萨斯州和佛罗里达州，共和党人重新划分了国会选区，寄望于他们持续的支持。
Riding high after their 2024 romp, in which Republicans won control of the White House and both chambers of Congress, there was optimism in the GOP that the rightward turn among Hispanic voters could reflect a permanent realignment In the past two years in Texas and Florida — states with large Hispanic populations—Republicans redrew congressional maps banking on their continued support.
特朗普计划在2030年人口普查中剔除非公民，引发潜在法律争议。埃隆·马斯克成为2026年中期选举中已知的最大捐款人。特朗普为俄罗斯柴油交易辩护：“我做出了正确的选择。”但面对高消费价格引发的焦虑、特朗普持续低迷的支持率以及人们认为移民政策已经过度——即使是在南德克萨斯州，那里对安全边境的支持很强——在距离2026年中期选举不到一个月的时候，共和党的热情似乎正在减弱。在那里竞争激烈的选区是美国少数几个可能决定下届国会控制权的选区之一。
Trump census plan to cut noncitizens from 2030 count spurs potential legal fight Elon Musk becomes biggest known donor of 2026 midterm election Trump defends Russia diesel deal: 'I made the right choice' But amid anxiety over high consumer prices Trump's persistently low approval ratings and sentiment that immigration policies have overreached — even in South Texas, where support for a secure border is strong — enthusiasm for the GOP appears to be waning with less than a month to go before the 2026 midterm election The districts in play there are among a small number across the U.S. that could help decide control of the next Congress. And a recent survey conducted for the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter found Democratic statewide candidates in Texas were leading their Republican opponents by a 2-to-1 margin among likely Hispanic voters.
此外，为《Cook Political Report》进行的最近一项调查（由Amy Walter主持）显示，在德克萨斯州，民主党全州候选人在可能的西班牙裔选民中以2比1的优势领先于共和党对手。另一项NBC新闻/Telemundo对全美拉美裔选民的民意调查（10月4日发布）显示，被调查者中有27%赞同特朗普，59%表示他们更倾向于民主党控制国会。
And an NBC News/Telemundo poll of Latino voters across the U.S., released Oct. 4, found 27% of those surveyed approved of Trump and 59% said they'd prefer Democrats control Congress.
特朗普在9月于白宫举办的西班牙裔传统月活动中邀请与会者参观他新舞厅的施工现场，该活动原本旨在巩固来自该群体的支持，但基本上回避了移民和经济等选举问题。“拉美选民很生气，”查克·罗查（Chuck Rocha）是一名民主党政治策略师，正在为德克萨斯州的多个竞选活动提供咨询，包括州众议员的竞选。
Trump, at a White House Hispanic Heritage Month event in September that was meant to shore up support from the demographic, invited attendees to tour the construction site for his new ballroom, while largely glossing over election issues such as immigration and the economy. "Latino voters are pissed," Chuck Rocha, a Democratic political strategist who is consulting for campaigns in Texas, including for state Rep.
詹姆斯·塔拉里科在竞选美国参议员时对CNBC表示：“目前，我们从他们对特朗普的不满中获益。”这可能对像蒂赫里纳这样的候选人构成麻烦，因为库克报告将其选区列为“倾向民主党”。对于共和党人如众议员莫妮卡·德拉克鲁兹和埃里克·弗洛雷斯来说，在其他以拉美裔为主体的边境选区，这同样是一个挑战。弗洛雷斯是陆军国民警卫队退伍军人，曾任助理美国检察官，希望在第34选区击败民主党众议员维森特·冈萨雷斯。
James Talarico in his run for U.S. Senate, told CNBC. "Right now, we benefit from them being pissed at Donald Trump." This could spell trouble for candidates such as Tijerina, whose district is listed as "lean D" by the Cook Report It's also a challenge in other majority-Latino border districts for Republicans such as Rep. Monica De La Cruz and Eric Flores. Flores is an Army National Guard veteran and former assistant U.S. attorney who is hoping to oust Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez in the 34th District.
德拉克鲁兹正试图在邻近的第15选区抵御来自特哈诺音乐明星鲍比·普利多的强劲挑战，普利多正以一场场十五岁生日派对的形式在选区进行巡回宣传。根据库克报告，弗洛雷斯-冈萨雷斯和德拉克鲁兹-普利多的竞选均属于“摇摆不定”。这两场众议院竞选，以及库埃拉尔-蒂赫里纳的竞选，是全国竞争最激烈的几场之一，对共和党来说至关重要，因为他们希望在众议院和参议院都能保住微弱的多数优势。
De La Cruz is attempting to stave off a potent challenge in the neighboring 15th District from Tejano music star Bobby Pulido who is barnstorming the district one quinceañera at a time The Flores-Gonzalez and De La Cruz-Pulido races are both "toss ups," according to the Cook Report. Those two House races, as well as the Cuellar-Tijerina race, are among the closest in the country and will be crucial as Republicans hope to cling to narrow majorities in both the House and Senate.
蒂赫里纳驳斥了共和党将失去对拉美裔选民新获得支持的这一观点。
Tijerina dismissed the idea that Republicans would lose their newfound grip on Latino voters.
“这正是媒体希望你听到的，”他说。“但事实上，民主党对拉美裔选民做了什么？或者对任何人来说，又做了什么？”“你拥有多少枪支？”
"That's what the media would like for you to hear," he said. "But in all reality, what has the Democratic Party done for Latino voters? Or for anybody for that matter?" 'How many guns do you own?'
蒂赫里纳应接不暇。库埃拉尔是得州南部的一个机构，在现代民主党政治中是个异数。他也很清楚为何民主党失去了一些西班牙裔和拉美裔选民。
Tijerina has his hands full. Cuellar is an institution in South Texas and an anomaly in modern Democratic politics. And he's clear-eyed about why Democrats lost some Hispanic and Latino voters.
“几年前，民主党连‘边境安全’两个字都说不出口。一切都是‘嗯，你知道，移民系统坏了’，”库埃拉尔在韦伯县最大城市拉雷多市中心的办公室对CNBC表示，该县构成了他选区的主要部分。
"Some years ago, Democrats could not say two words: 'border security.' Everything was 'well, you know, it's a broken immigration system,'" Cuellar told CNBC in his office in downtown Laredo, the largest city in Webb County, which makes up much of his district.
库埃拉尔表示，民主党“必须能够谈论我认为的厨房桌面上的温和立场。作为民主党人，我们不能采取极端立场。”他看到一些他所认为的进步。以及像塔拉里科和州众议员这样的候选人。
Cuellar said Democrats have "got to be able to talk [about] what I call kitchen-table, moderate positions. We can't take extreme positions as Democrats." He's seen some of what he considers improvement.
根据《Cook Report》的民意调查结果，民主党州长候选人吉娜·伊诺霍萨在拉美裔选民中的支持率非常高。今年是民主党人自1994年以来首次有望在全州范围内赢得选举的年份。
And candidates such as Talarico and state Rep. Gina Hinojosa the Democratic candidate for governor, are performing well with Hispanic voters, according to polling from the Cook Report in a year when Democrats hope to win statewide for the first time since 1994.
共和党政治策略师迈克·马德里预测，本次选举中选民的倾向将再次转向民主党，但他表示这并不意味着拉丁裔选民会重新支持民主党：“他们之所以在过去十年里逐渐远离民主党，是有原因的。”马德里指出：“如果当前的情况没有那么糟糕，那么共和党的支持率应该会比过去几十年高得多。”根据《Texas Politics Project》的出口民调数据，特朗普在2024年赢得了德克萨斯州约55%的拉丁裔选民选票，这一比例比2020年上升了14个百分点，创下了共和党候选人在该州的历史新高。
Mike Madrid a Republican political strategist who predicts a big shift back toward Democrats this cycle, said that doesn't mean that Latino voters "are back in bed with the Democrats." "They've been moving away for a decade for a reason," Madrid said. "And if things weren't so bad right now, then you would be seeing a much higher level of Republican baseline than you've seen over the decades." Trump won roughly 55% of the Latino vote in Texas in 2024, up 14 points from 2020 and hitting a new high for a GOP candidate in Texas, according to exit polling by the Texas Politics Project.
2020年，韦伯县以超过23个百分点的差距支持了拜登；然而在今年，该县首次将选票投给了共和党总统候选人。
And Webb County — which voted for Biden by more than 23 points in 2020 — backed a Republican for president for the first time since William Howard Taft in 1912.
库埃拉尔出生于拉雷多，曾是一名律师。在过去二十年里，他多次成功连任州议员。他的成功部分归功于他在零售政治领域的出色表现，以及他为所在选区争取到了大量联邦资金。如果民主党在下次国会选举中赢得多数席位，库埃拉尔很有可能会担任具有影响力的众议院国土安全拨款小组委员会主席。
Cuellar, meanwhile, bested his opponent by more than 5 percentage points. A former attorney who was born in Laredo, Cuellar has easily won reelection for most of the past two decades, finding success in part as a master of retail politics and as a reliable source of federal dollars for his district. If Democrats win a majority next Congress, Cuellar is in line to chair the influential House Appropriations Subcommittee on Homeland Security.
他坦言，自己之所以能够避开那些在过去几届选举中困扰其他民主党人的政治陷阱，是因为他经常敢于违背党派的立场或决策。
By frequently bucking his party, he said, he's avoided the political pitfalls that have hampered other Democrats in recent cycles.
pro-life支持第二修正案。他曾支持对一些被驱逐出境后重新进入美国的移民施加更严厉的惩罚。9月份，他是仅有的八名民主党人之一，与共和党人一起在一次象征性投票中谴责社会主义。他还因2024年一项涉及洗钱、电信欺诈和贿赂的起诉而受到指责。检方指控他和他的妻子通过其妻子拥有的空壳公司，将来自阿塞拜疆和墨西哥银行的约60万美元贿赂款转移。库埃拉尔夫妇否认了这些指控，特朗普最终赦免了这对夫妇。当CNBC询问起诉书时，库埃拉尔指出了他支持该选区的记录。
Cuellar has said he is " pro-life support[s] the Second Amendment " He has backed harsher penalties for some immigrants who reenter the U.S. after being deported. And in September, he was one of just eight Democrats to join Republicans in a symbolic vote condemning socialism He also came under fire after a 2024 indictment for money laundering, wire fraud and bribery. Prosecutors alleged he and his wife funneled roughly $600,000 in bribes from Azerbaijan and a Mexican bank through shell companies owned by his wife. The Cuellars denied the charges, and Trump ultimately pardoned the couple When asked by CNBC about the indictment, Cuellar pointed to his record supporting the district.
尽管有这些指控，他在拉雷多的声誉似乎并未受到重大打击。今年早些时候，拉雷多国际机场的一个航站楼以他的名字命名。在与CNBC交谈之前，库埃拉尔正在拉雷多学院——他曾是该校的校友——宣布联邦拨款772,700美元，用于国土安全培训项目。库埃拉尔将他的成功归因于他了解如何与选民建立联系。
Despite the charges, his reputation doesn't appear to have taken a major hit around Laredo, where earlier this year, a terminal at Laredo International Airport was named in his honor Ahead of talking with CNBC, Cuellar was at Laredo College, of which he is an alumnus, announcing $772,700 in federal funding for a homeland security training program. Cuellar attributed his success to knowing how to relate to his constituents.
“你只需要明白，在得州南部，你身处何地，”库埃拉尔说。“你不会问，‘你有枪吗？’问题应该是，‘你有多少枪？’”关于移民的细致观点拉雷多坐落在里奥格兰德河畔，对面是墨西哥的新拉雷多。这两座城市合称为“洛斯多斯拉雷多斯”，它们的文化和经济紧密交织。许多拉雷多居民会过境去办事，利用墨西哥那边更低的杂货价格和有利的汇率。
"You just got to understand in South Texas, where you're at," Cuellar said. "You don't ask, 'Do you own a gun?' The question is: 'How many guns do you own?'" Nuanced views on immigration Laredo sits on the Rio Grande across from Nuevo Laredo, Mexico. The two cities are collectively known as "Los Dos Laredos," and their cultures and economies are closely intertwined. Many Laredo residents cross the border to run errands, taking advantage of lower grocery prices and a favorable exchange rate on the Mexican side of the river.
该地区炎热干燥，景观主要是灌木丛。拉雷多拥有一个繁忙的商业边境口岸，市中心散布着小企业和墨西哥餐馆。人行道和圣奥古斯丁广场上传来西班牙语的交谈声。根据美国人口普查，近95%的人口是西班牙裔或拉美裔。这是得州的一个地区，移民政策在这里至关重要。
The area is hot and dry, and the landscape is mainly brushland. Laredo boasts a bustling commercial border crossing and small businesses and Mexican restaurants dot the downtown. The sounds of spoken Spanish emanate from the sidewalks and San Agustin Plaza. Nearly 95% of the population is Hispanic or Latino, according to the U.S. Census. It's a part of Texas where immigration policy is crucial.
“许多拉美裔选民对移民政策有着细致入微的看法，” 负责《库克报告》众议院报道的艾琳·科维说。“他们不喜欢拜登政府的边境安全政策，他们希望有强有力的边境安全，尤其是住在边境附近的选民。” 特朗普将边境安全作为其2024年竞选的支柱之一，并继续使用批评者认为妖魔化移民、支持者则认为对非法入境者强硬的言论和政策。蒂赫里纳将移民政策列为共和党的优势。
"A lot of these Latino voters have nuanced views of immigration policy," said Erin Covey, who leads the Cook Report's coverage of the House. "They didn't like the Biden administration's border security policies, and they want strong border security, particularly those voters who live near the border." Trump made securing the border a pillar of his 2024 campaign and has continued to use rhetoric and set policy that critics argue demonizes immigrants supporters praise as tough on people coming to the country illegally. Tijerina lists immigration policy as a GOP strength.
“你看到有人在越过我们的边境吗？” 当被问及特朗普到底做到了什么时，他说。“边境安全简直令人难以置信，我们应该为此感谢他。” 当被问及特朗普在移民打压方面是否走得太远时，蒂赫里纳回避了回答。“看，我无法回答。事实上，我对许多细节并不了解，” 他说。即使在特朗普的支持者中，基层的情感也是复杂多变的。
"Do you see anybody crossing our border?" he said when asked about what Trump has delivered. "Border security has been just unbelievable, and we owe him thanks for that." Asked whether Trump had gone too far in his immigration crackdown, Tijerina demurred. "Look, I can't answer. In all reality I don't know a lot of the details," he said. Sentiment on the ground is mixed, even among Trump supporters.
对于丹尼尔·洛佩兹 Jr. 来说——他是墨西哥移民的儿子，韦伯县的一名餐馆老板，且表示自己曾三次投票给特朗普——移民执法是个人的事情。
For Daniel Lopez Jr., the son of Mexican immigrants and a Webb County restaurateur who said he voted for Trump three times, immigration enforcement is personal.
他说，他在过去两年内有兄弟姐妹被驱逐出境，这给他的家庭带来了情感和经济上的压力，并且他认为一些拉美裔正在被边境特工进行画像。
He said he has siblings who have been deported in the last two years, putting emotional and financial strain on his family, and believes some Latinos are being profiled by border agents.
尽管如此，他仍然批评拜登的移民政策，并表示他支持强有力的边境。
Still, he's critical of Biden's immigration policy and said he supports a strong border. "Twenty years ago, Mexico was different.
“二十年前，墨西哥的情况不同。暴力导致大量人离开该国，” 洛佩兹说。”你不知道这些人是好是坏。” 虽然移民可能是得州今年11月的一个关键因素，但洛佩兹说他最担心的是成本上升。
Violence has stirred up a lot of people leaving the country," Lopez said. "You don't know if those people are good or bad." While immigration could be a key factor in Texas this November, Lopez said he's most concerned about rising costs.
UnidosUS 拉美民权倡导组织五月份的民意调查显示，德克萨斯州的西班牙裔选民将生活成本和通胀、经济和就业/工资、医疗保健置于移民之上，作为他们在选举中的优先事项。这与全国民意调查相吻合，后者显示可负担性在所有选民议题中居首位。
May poll by Latino civil rights advocacy organization UnidosUS found Texas Hispanic voters rated cost of living and inflation, the economy and jobs/wages, and healthcare above immigration among their election priorities. This tracks with national polling, which shows affordability leading all other issues for voters.
洛佩兹表示，他的餐厅因价格上涨和顾客减少而受到冲击。他说，他对所面临的经济压力感到不满，但也不确定民主党是否能降低物价。洛佩兹拒绝透露他今年十一月将如何投票。
Lopez said his restaurants have been hurt by higher prices and fewer patrons. He said he's unhappy with the economic pressures he's facing, but he's also not certain Democrats would bring prices down. Lopez declined to say how he'll vote this November.
“我们正感受到压力。我现在无法加薪，”洛佩兹说。“你可以去我们的杂货店看看，现在已经没有牛排肉了。大家现在都在吃热狗和汉堡，因为牛排肉太贵了。”“约束这个人”当自称终身共和党人的路易·梅尔在20世纪60年代带着家人来到拉雷多时，拉雷多还是一个宁静的边境小镇。他回忆说，当时道路未铺装的更多，中产阶级也不够发达。
"We're feeling the pinch. I can't give raises right now," Lopez said. "You can go to our grocery stores, and there's no more carne asada. Everyone's doing hot dogs and burgers now because it's too expensive." 'Rein this guy in' Laredo was a sleepy border town when Lou Meier, who said he's a lifelong Republican, arrived with his family in the 1960s. There were more unpaved roads and a less robust middle class, he recalled.
但随着城市的发展——如今人口已接近27万——其政治文化基本保持不变。
But as the city blossomed — its population is now nearly 270,000— the political culture remained fairly static.
“这里基本上一直是民主党城市，而且一直如此。追溯到[林登·B·约翰逊总统]乃至更早时期，全国民主党一直可以依赖得克萨斯南部的选票，”梅尔说。他曾离开拉雷多，但四年前返回退休。“令许多选民意外的是，恰好让特朗普当选的共和党选票。”梅尔表示，他在2024年投票给了特朗普。他说，南得克萨斯州的西班牙裔选民——包括他自己——在2024年拒绝了拜登和副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯，因为选民认为他们的边境政策过于宽松。他还对民主党近年来所采取的一些进步立场感到沮丧。
"It's basically a Democrat city and has been forever. Going back to [President Lyndon B. Johnson] and before that, the Democrat party nationally could always count on getting the votes from South Texas," said Meier, who had moved away from Laredo but returned four years ago to retire. "The Republican vote that happened to elect Trump was unexpected by many voters." Meier said he voted for Trump in 2024. He said Latino voters in South Texas, including him, rejected Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024 because of what the voters viewed as lax border policies. And he's frustrated by some of the progressive positions Democrats have staked out in recent years.
“我们现在创造了多少性别？”梅尔说。”我认为这是愚蠢的，基本上来自民主党方面。“但特朗普的第二个任期并没有像梅尔想象的那样发展。他说，他对特朗普政府的外交政策感到尴尬。他担心联邦政府被掏空。他和许多人一样，正在为汽油和其他消费品价格的上涨而挣扎。”我感到羞耻。他让我们难堪，不仅在这里，而且在全世界都是如此，”梅尔谈到特朗普时说。“有人需要约束这个人，而我认为共和党没有勇气这样做。”“我对我的党感到非常失望。”
"How many genders have we now created?" Meier said. "I think that's foolishness, and that basically comes from the Democrat side." But Trump's second term hasn't played out how Meier imagined it would. He said he's embarrassed by the Trump administration's foreign policy He's concerned about the hollowing out of the federal government And he, like many people, is struggling with the cost of gas and other consumer prices "I'm ashamed. He's made us look bad, not only here but around the world," Meier said of Trump. "Somebody needs to rein this guy in, and I don't think the Republicans have the bravery to do it." "I'm just very disappointed in my party."