在德克萨斯州最南端的里奥格兰德河谷，牛仔靴随着特哈诺音乐的节奏跺动，在这个以拉美裔为主的地区，选民可能会实现民主党的愿望，帮助该党赢得30多年来的首个全州范围选举胜利。
Latino voters in Texas’ Rio Grande Valley may help Democrats win their first statewide race in over 30 years, as support shifts away from Trump over inflation and immigration. Democrats point to strong early voting, with more than 5.1 million ballots cast by Oct 27, and say Latino turnout is rising fast, especially among young voters.
在2024年支持唐纳德·特朗普总统后，民调显示，这里传统上支持民主党的选民正在转而反对这位共和党领袖，后者主管着严重的通胀和对移民的强硬打压。
Trump has held near-daily rallies and warned of fraud, but ICE raids and federal presence at polling places have worried many Latino voters and pushed some back towards Democrats.
“我认为过去发生的情况是，唐纳德·特朗普进场后表示情况会有所不同，我们将看到大量繁荣。但这并没有发生，”民主党州长候选人吉娜·伊诺霍萨在10月25日于韦斯拉科举行的一场吸引了8000人参加的集会上表示。
AI generated RIO GRANDE VALLEY, Texas - In the Rio Grande Valley at the southernmost tip of Texas, cowboy boots stomp along to Tejano music in this heavily Latino region, where voters could deliver on Democrats’ hopes of winning their first statewide race in more than 30 years. After supporting President Donald Trump in 2024, polls indicate the traditionally Democratic voters here are turning against the Republican leader who has overseen biting inflation and a heavy-handed crackdown on migrants.
与此同时，长老会神学院学生詹姆斯·塔拉里科正与司法部长肯·帕克斯顿展开激烈角逐，争夺一个美国参议院席位——民主党希望翻转四个席位以控制参议院。
“I think what happened in the past is that Donald Trump came in and he said things were going to be different, and that we were going to see a lot of prosperity. That hasn’t happened,” said Democratic gubernatorial candidate Gina Hinojosa at a rally on Oct 25 in Weslaco that attracted a crowd of 8,000.
共和党担心在11月3日的中期选举中出现民主党“蓝色浪潮”，因为选民因通胀而惩罚他们，而通胀是由特朗普八个月前发动的对伊朗战争导致油价飙升所引发的。
Meanwhile, Presbyterian seminarian James Talarico is locked in a tight race with Attorney-General Ken Paxton for a US Senate seat – with Democrats looking to flip four nationally to secure control of the chamber. Republicans fear a Democratic “blue wave” in the Nov 3 midterms as voters punish them over inflation stoked by oil prices that have soared since Trump launched his war on Iran eight months ago.
特朗普在美国各地举行近乎每天的集会，以提高其基本盘的投票率，声称只有他能避免失败。
Trump has held near-daily rallies across the United States to increase turnout among his base, saying he is the only one who can stave off defeat.
他在过去一个月里三次造访得克萨斯州，穿梭全国为传统上被视为共和党铁票仓的州拉票助选。
He’s made three visits to Texas in the past month as he crisscrossed the country to stump in states traditionally considered solidly Republican.
2024年，特朗普赢下山谷地区所有四个县，获得高达56%的选票。
In 2024, Trump won all four counties in the Valley, securing as much as 56% of the vote.
然而，近期民调显示，选民对其经济管理和移民政策的不满情绪日益增长，针对移民的突击搜捕行动让许多拉丁裔感到不安。
However, recent polls indicate growing discontent with his economic management and immigration policies, with raids on migrants leaving many Latinos feeling uneasy.
26岁的园林绿化企业主迭戈·阿亚拉说：“我认为在之前的选举年里，山谷地区的很多人被共和党候选人的宣传说服了。他们以为这不会伤害到自己。”
“What I think happened in the previous election years were that a lot of people in the Valley were persuaded by the messaging of the Republican candidates. And they thought it wasn’t going to hurt them,” said 26-year-old Diego Ayala, who owns a landscaping business.
“然后这些人上台了，情况却没变、没好转。经济下行、移民与海关执法局（ICE）的行动，诸如此类。人们依然为医疗、汽油、食品杂货的开销发愁。”“拉丁裔投票热潮”民主党对得克萨斯州提前投票的速度感到振奋：据得克萨斯州州务卿办公室数据，截至10月27日，已有超过510万人投出选票，占登记选民的26.8%。
“Then these people get into office and then the situations don’t change, don’t get better. The economy’s down, ICE, all that. People are still struggling to afford health care, gas, groceries.”‘Latino surge’Democrats are encouraged by the pace of early voting in Texas: More than 5.1 million people had cast their ballots as of Oct 27, or 26.8% of registered voters, according to the Texas Secretary of State’s office.
非营利组织Voto Latino的玛丽亚·特雷莎·库马尔说：“你们现在看到的这种投票情况，这是10年来拉丁裔在得克萨斯州投票站首次出现激增。在大河谷地区，年轻拉丁裔出来投票的数量甚至已超过他们的父母，比四年前同期已经领先1.2万票。”
“The vote that you’re seeing right now, this is the very first time in 10 years where Latinos are surging at the polls here in Texas. You’re already seeing young Latinos coming out more than even their parents in the Rio Grande Valley, they’re already 12,000 votes ahead than the same time just four years ago,” said Maria Teresa Kumar of the non-profit Voto Latino.
特朗普一直在警告可能出现的选举舞弊，宣布悬赏100万美元（约128万新元），奖励提供线索致使嫌疑人被捕并定罪者。
Trump has been warning of potential voter fraud, announcing a US$1 million (S$1.28 million) reward for information leading to an arrest and conviction.
权利团体表示，联邦探员出现在投票站可能会恐吓选民，尤其是在特朗普政府的移民突击搜捕行动中频繁成为目标的拉丁裔。
Rights groups have said the presence of federal agents at polling stations could intimidate voters, especially Latinos who have been frequent targets in the Trump administration’s immigration raids.
集会参与者尼古拉斯·埃尔南德斯（39岁）说：“有时候我们必须出来，特别是在动荡不安的时期，人们不得不出示身份证件。”
“Sometimes we have to be out here, especially in these tumultuous times where people have to show their identification,” said rally attendee Nicolas Hernandez, 39.
“你必须来到这里，向他们表达支持，让他们知道我们关心他们，并且我们正在通过投票、现身支持这些候选人，尽我们所能做到的一切，”他说。
“You have to be out here to show support for them and show them that we care and that we’re doing everything we can on our part by voting and showing up and supporting these candidates,” he said.
商人本尼·门德斯在2024年投票给特朗普，以惩罚他此前曾支持的民主党总统乔·拜登。他说，他对拜登忽视美墨边境、推迟急需的移民改革感到失望。
Businessman Benny Menendez voted for Trump in 2024 to punish Democratic President Joe Biden, whom he had previously supported. He said he soured on Biden for neglecting the US-Mexico border and putting off needed immigration reform.
然而，美国移民与海关执法局（ICE）特工的突击搜查吓坏了他的工人，导致他的几个建筑项目进度落后。
However, raids by agents from US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) have frightened his workers, causing several of his construction projects to fall behind schedule.
“我们通过投票给共和党人来惩罚民主党人。但共和党人背叛了我们，所以现在我们也要通过投票给民主党人来惩罚他们，”他用西班牙语告诉法新社。
“We punished the Democrat by voting for the Republican. But the Republicans betrayed us, so now we’re going to punish them too by voting for the Democrats,” he told AFP, speaking in Spanish.
“这样，两党都会明白，如果他们再敢招惹西班牙裔和拉丁裔，他们不仅会失去金钱，还会失去政治权力。”法新社
“This way, both parties will learn that if they mess with Hispanics and Latinos again, they won’t just lose money – they’ll lose political power.”AFP