东京/纽约 -- 受美国钢材价格飙升带动，美国钢铁公司预计将贡献日本制铁7至9月利润的40%以上；但若民主党控制的国会采取行动遏制人工智能领域，可能成为风险因素。
TOKYO/NEW YORK -- U.S. Steel is expected to account for over 40% of Nippon Steel's July-September profit, thanks to a jump in prices for American steel products, but a Democratic-controlled Congress could emerge as a risk factor if it moves to rein in the AI sector.
这家日本钢企将于周四发布财报，预计截至9月的六个月中，扣除存货评价影响后的基础业务利润将同比下降28%，至2500亿日元（约15.8亿美元）。
The Japanese steelmaker, which will announce earnings Thursday, expects underlying business profit -- which excludes the impact of inventory valuation -- for the six months through September to fall 28% on the year to 250 billion yen ($1.58 billion).
受国内需求疲软、运输和能源成本激增拖累，国内业务利润预计暴跌60%至1000亿日元。但海外业务有望弥补这一缺口，利润预计激增71%至1500亿日元，主要得益于美国钢铁公司。
Domestic profit is projected to sink 60% to 100 billion yen on weak demand combined with surging transport and energy costs. But this is expected to be offset by overseas operations, where profit is expected to jump 71% to 150 billion yen, driven by U.S. Steel.
美国钢铁公司7至9月利润预计将翻倍多，达约580亿日元。这将占日本制铁季度总利润的40%以上，高于上一季度的约30%，并创下自2025年7至9月美国钢铁公司并入合并报表以来的最高占比。
The American company's profit for the July-September quarter is forecast to more than double to the equivalent of around 58 billion yen. This would be more than 40% of Nippon Steel's quarterly total, up from about 30% in the previous quarter and the largest share since U.S. Steel was added to its consolidated results in July-September 2025.
这主要归因于美国钢价上涨。据SteelBenchmarker数据，10月下旬热轧钢价为每公吨1357美元，较去年同期上涨约50%，远高于日本制铁此前假设的1150美元左右。
This owes mainly to the rise in American steel prices. Hot-rolled steel stood at $1,357 per metric ton in late October, according to SteelBenchmarker -- up by about 50% from a year earlier and well above the $1,150 or so assumed by Nippon Steel.
美国市场供需紧张。供给端，关税推高价格导致进口减少；需求端，人工智能投资热潮带动数据中心建设，需求持续升温。
The supply-demand balance in the U.S. is tight. On the supply side, imports have fallen as tariffs have driven up prices, while data center construction amid the artificial intelligence investment surge is heightening demand.
“股市的默认预期似乎是日本制铁将上调美国钢铁公司的盈利预测，”SBI证券高级分析师柴田龙之介表示。
"The default assumption in the stock market seems to be that Nippon Steel will raise its earnings forecast for U.S. Steel," said Ryunosuke Shibata, senior analyst at SBI Securities.
市场对日本制铁业绩超预期的期待也在升温。截至10月26日，QUICK Consensus市场共识预测，截至明年3月的本财年净利润将激增18倍，达到3154亿日元，高于9月下旬的3070亿日元预测，也高于公司自身2900亿日元的估计。
Expectations are rising for Nippon Steel to beat earnings projections as well. The QUICK Consensus market forecast as of Oct. 26 called for net profit for the year ending in March to surge 18-fold to 315.4 billion yen, above the 307 billion yen projection in late September and the company's own estimate of 290 billion yen.
收购美国钢铁后，日本制铁的有息负债在6月末膨胀至5.52万亿日元，较2025年3月的数字翻了一倍多。包括利息支付在内的财务费用在4-6月同比增至3倍，达396亿日元。尽管这些成本恐进一步增加，但预计增幅将被美国钢铁的超预期表现所吸收。
After the U.S. Steel acquisition, Nippon Steel's interest-bearing debt ballooned to 5.52 trillion yen at the end of this past June, more than double the March 2025 figure. Finance costs, which include interest payments, tripled on the year in April-June to 39.6 billion yen. But while these costs are likely to grow further, the increase is expected to be absorbed by U.S. Steel's outperformance.
美国竞争对手表现同样强劲。克利夫兰-克利夫斯上季度调整后息税折旧摊销前利润（EBITDA）增至4倍多，达6.12亿美元。纽柯的EBITDA近乎翻倍，达22.8亿美元。
U.S. competitors are also faring well. Cleveland-Cliffs' adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) more than quadrupled last quarter to $612 million. Nucor's EBITDA nearly doubled to $2.28 billion.
日本制铁的担忧在于日本国内业务，预计本财年基础业务利润将下滑28%至380亿日元。公司正致力于将不断上涨的成本转嫁给客户，本财年已累计将钢板等产品价格每吨上调2万日元。
The concern for Nippon Steel is its Japan business, where full-year underlying business profit is projected to sink 28% to 380 billion yen. The company is working to pass on rising costs to customers, hiking prices on products such as steel plate by a total of 20,000 yen per ton this fiscal year.
美国钢铁市场前景也存在不确定性。国产钢材价格上涨已开始使进口钢材即使加上关税也具备竞争力。美国钢铁协会数据显示，9月钢材进口量同比激增约50%，达236万吨。
There is also some uncertainty around the outlook for the American steel market. The increase in prices for domestically produced steel has begun to make imports competitive even with tariffs. Steel imports jumped by about 50% on the year in September to 2.36 million tons, data from the American Iron and Steel Institute shows.
周二选举结果带来新风险。民主党赢得参众两院多数席位，党内许多人主张比特朗普总统领导的共和党更严格的AI监管，这可能影响数据中心建设。
The results of Tuesday's elections present a new risk. The Democratic Party has won majorities in both houses of Congress, and many in the party favor more AI regulation than President Donald Trump's Republican Party, which could affect data center construction.
日本制铁股价周三小幅上涨0.4%，自2025年底以来累计上涨3%。尽管得益于美国钢铁公司的贡献，其表现优于日本同行，但日经平均指数同期涨幅超过20%。
Nippon Steel shares edged up 0.4% on Wednesday and have gained 3% since the end of 2025. Although it is faring better than Japanese rivals due to the contribution from U.S. Steel, the Nikkei Stock Average gained more than 20% over the same period.
在8月的财报说明会上，首席财务官岩井孝彦表示，公司将努力进一步改善自由现金流，并通过增加高端产品供应和削减成本来增强盈利能力。提高日本业务的盈利能力，同时通过技术支持与美国钢铁公司创造协同效应，很可能是提振其股价的关键。
In an August earnings briefing, Chief Financial Officer Takahiko Iwai said the company will work to further improve free cash flow, and strengthen its earning power by boosting supplies of high-end products while cutting costs. Making its Japanese operations more profitable while creating synergies with U.S. Steel through technological support will likely be key to bolstering its shares.