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“杀气腾腾”:调查阴影笼罩新分裂的华盛顿,交易让位于对抗‘Out for blood’: Investigations overshadow dealmaking in newly divided Washington

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伊丽莎白·弗兰茨/路透社Elizabeth Frantz/Reuters

特朗普总统以偶尔寻求与对手合作——甚至赞扬对手——而闻名。新崛起的民主党人却并不热衷于交易。

The News President Donald Trump is known to occasionally seek collaboration with — even offer praise to — his opponents. Newly ascendant Democrats, however, aren’t in much of a dealmaking mood.

随着民主党准备明年夺取众议院和参议院的控制权,他们已在规划如何调查总统、其政府及其盟友。民主党对调查的贪婪渴求——以及白宫对其的敌意——引发了严重疑问:即使行政官员开始浮现两党合作的机会,两个党派是否还能在任何程度上合作?

As Democrats prepare to take control of the House and Senate next year, they are already plotting out ways to investigate the president, his administration, and its allies. Democrats’ ravenous appetite for investigations — and the White House’s hostility towards them — raises serious questions about whether the two parties will be able to work together to any extent, even as administration officials begin floating opportunities for bipartisan cooperation.

“他们会全力以赴”,一名特朗普政府官员对Semafor表示。

“They’re going to be out for blood,” one Trump administration official told Semafor.

民主党在特朗普第二任期内一直处于边缘,试图从第一任期的后果中吸取教训。即使在选民给共和党一记代际式的谴责之前,领导人们已在系统地绘制多管齐下的监督方案。

Democrats have spent Trump’s second term on the sidelines, trying to learn from the aftermath of the first Trump administration. Even before voters delivered Republicans a generational rebuke, leaders had been methodically mapping out a multi-pronged oversight approach.

即将上任的众议院监督委员会主席罗伯特·加西亚(加州民主党)告诉Semafor,他的委员会将“聚焦四大领域”——特朗普家族、移民、企业和被定罪的性贩运者杰弗里·爱泼斯坦。

Incoming House Oversight Chair Robert Garcia, D-Calif., told Semafor his committee will be “laser focused on four major lanes” — the Trump family, immigration, corporations, and convicted sex trafficker Jeffrey Epstein.

加西亚在中期选举后发布声明,建议共和党人“请律师”,并表示“我们已经在奠定基础”。他预测每个民主党委员会主席都会参与行动:“腐败的机会足够多”。在选举前,回归和即将上任的众议院民主党人曾表达“极大兴趣”加入监督小组,加西亚说。如今,两院领导人认为选民已给他们自由,能够将努力提升到更高层次。

“We’ve been laying the groundwork,” said Garcia, who released a statement after the midterms advising Republicans to “lawyer up.”He predicted that every Democratic committee chair would get in on the action: “There’s more than enough corruption to go around.”Prior to the election, returning and incoming House Democrats had expressed “an incredible amount of interest” in joining the Oversight panel, Garcia said. Now, leaders in both chambers believe voters have given them free rein to take their efforts to the next level.

“美国人要求问责,而不是妥协,”参议院少数党领袖丘克·舒默周三说。“每当特朗普违背美国人民的意愿或法律时,我们就会展开调查,把他送上法庭,并让他陷入立法的荆棘网。”政府已经在警告他们要退让。

“Americans are calling for accountability, not accomodation,” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said Wednesday. “Whenever Trump defies the will of the American people or the law, we will launch investigations, take him to court, and entangle him in legislative razor wire.”The administration is already warning them to back off.

“正如总统所说,他愿意与任何人合作,继续为勤劳的美国人赢得胜利。如果民主党选择进行虚假调查和激进的左翼政策,他们就是在与美国人民作对,”白宫发言人劳伦·毕斯告诉《Semafor》。

“As the President has said, he’s willing to work with anyone to continue delivering victories for hardworking Americans. If Democrats choose to pursue sham investigations and radical left policies, they are choosing to work against the American people,” White House spokeswoman Lauren Bis told Semafor.

他们的抵抗对民主党来说并不意外,民主党已经开始策划如何通过调查私营部门来规避特朗普。政府官员可以以行政特权为由拒绝提供文件,正如他们在肯尼迪中心案中所做的那样;企业领导则不能。

Its resistance is no surprise to Democrats, who had already begun strategizing how to circumvent Trump by probing the private sector instead. Government officials can invoke executive privilege to avoid providing documents, as they have in the Kennedy Center case; corporate leaders cannot.

“我们意识到从特朗普1.0学到的教训,即他们如何利用法院拖延程序,”参议院财政委员会民主党调查首席律师丹·戈森说。

“We are cognizant of lessons learned from Trump 1.0 of how much they use the courts to string out the process,” said Dan Goshorn, Senate Finance Committee Democrats’ chief investigation counsel, said.

“从我们的角度来看,私营公司面临更大的声誉风险,更愿意合作,”戈森补充说。“我们会去任何能找到信息的地方。”

“So from our perspective, private companies have more of a reputational risk and are going to be more willing to cooperate,” Goshorn added. “We’re going to go wherever the information is.”

在惨痛的选举结果后,特朗普周二表示他愿意与民主党在立法上合作,告诉《纽约时报》‘我们可能会达成某种协议’。一些政府官员预测,特朗普和民主党可能在改变移民执法和解决药品成本问题上找到共同点——但一位特朗普顾问对移民协议持怀疑态度,指出民调显示该议题仍是共和党少数优势之一。

a modicum of legislative optimism After the bruising results, Trump on Tuesday suggested he’s open to collaborating with Democrats on legislation, telling The New York Times that “we’ll probably work something out.”Some administration officials predicted Trump and Democrats could find common ground on changing immigration enforcement and addressing pharmaceutical costs — though one Trump adviser expressed skepticism at the idea of an immigration deal, pointing to exit polls showing that the issue remained one of the few Republican strengths.

那位顾问建议总统和民主党人也可以在人工智能——尤其是关于数据中心的规则——以及其他生活成本问题上合作。两党共同的具体想法可能包括颁布制造业和清洁能源税收抵免,或重新授权联邦交通项目。

That adviser suggested the president and Democrats could also work together on AI — particularly rules around data centers — and other cost-of-living issues. Specific bipartisan ideas could include enacting manufacturing and clean energy tax credits or reauthorizing federal transportation programs.

“特朗普本质上确实喜欢做交易,”一位与白宫关系密切的人告诉Semafor。

Trump “at his core does like dealmaking,” one person close to the White House told Semafor.

但在众议院监督的洪流中,这种善意能持续多久尚不清楚。特朗普的助手们正在为冲击做准备,政府官员预测民主党人会试图拆除特朗普的新舞厅。

But it’s unclear how long that goodwill can last amid a torrent of congressional oversight. Trump’s aides are bracing for impact, with the administration official predicting Democrats would try to tear down Trump’s new ballroom.

“一场战争会比和平多得多,”一位前特朗普政府官员说。“民主党人觉得他们有权通过传票和法律战来折磨政府。” 预算立法将成为首个考验。政府拨款计划将于下月到期,Garcia表示民主党人将利用这一点来敲定明年的计划。

“There’s going to be a lot more war than peace,” a former Trump administration official said. “The Democrats feel they have a mandate to torture the administration with subpoenas and lawfare.”Spending legislation will pose an early first test. Government funding is slated to lapse next month, which Garcia said Democrats will use to finalize their plans for next year.

“民主党人很难在看到[周二]发生的事情后……通过一项干净的持续决议,锁定医疗补助削减、食品券削减、移民与海关执法局资金以及五角大楼资金,尤其是在你刚刚看到历史上最大的中期选举授权反对共和党议程之后,”Groundwork Collaborative的Alex Jacquez告诉Semafor。

“It’s going to be very hard for Democrats to look at what happened [Tuesday] and … pass a clean continuing resolution that locks in Medicaid cuts and SNAP cuts and ICE funding and Pentagon funding after you’ve just seen the biggest mandate in the history of midterm elections against the Republican agenda,” Groundwork Collaborative’s Alex Jacquez told Semafor.

与民主党合作也不可避免地会让特朗普面临自己党内的批评。白宫关系密切的人警告说,一项两党移民协议可能会“进一步损害共和党”。关于大规模监督计划,特朗普家族的“巨额敲诈”是“民主党人名单上的首位”,Garcia说,现已允许两院议员安排听证会并发出传票。他指出特朗普家族从加密货币中赚取的资金;帮助支付唐纳德·特朗普 Jr.婚礼的俄罗斯寡头;以及特朗普 Jr.和贾里德·库什纳的商业冒险。

Working with Democrats would also inevitably expose Trump to criticism from his own party. The person close to the White House warned a bipartisan immigration deal could “damage the GOP even further.” big oversight plans The Trump family’s “enormous amount of grift” is “at the top of [Democrats’] list,” Garcia said, now that lawmakers in both chambers will be able to schedule hearings and issue subpoenas. He pointed to the money the Trumps have made from cryptocurrency; the Russian oligarch who helped pay for Donald Trump Jr.’s wedding; and Trump Jr. and Jared Kushner’s business ventures.

立法者还计划审查国土安全部的“付费与获利”行为,包括前国土安全部长克里斯蒂·诺姆和科里·卢旺多斯基的相关事务。他们还将针对“企业腐败,尤其是与特朗普合作以剥削美国人民的人”,以及艾普斯坦调查。加西亚对该调查表示:“共和党几乎没有做任何事来推动它。”

Lawmakers also plan to scrutinize “pay-to-play and profitmaking” at the Department of Homeland Security, including by former Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem and Corey Lewandowski. And they’ll go after “corporate corruption, particularly anyone that’s worked with the Trumps to rip off the American people,” as well as the Epstein investigation. “Republicans have done little to nothing to advance it,” Garcia said of that probe.

众议院司法委员会正准备处理其他腐败问题,例如赦免。其他委员会将更深入地审查特朗普政府的经济政策,许多民主党人已经警告说,如果不把生活成本与腐败问题放在优先位置,可能无法在2028年吸引新选民。

The House Judiciary Committee is bracing to tackle other corruption issues, like pardons. Other panels will delve deeper into the Trump administration’s economic policies, with many Democrats already warning that a failure to prioritize the cost of living alongside corruption could fail to attract new voters come 2028.

两院的其他重点包括特朗普政府对住房部门的监督;其对关税豁免和退税的处理;以及其在委内瑞拉和伊朗的行动,尤其是后者对油价的影响。周三,舒默承诺民主党将利用其财政权力“结束战争”。民主党人表示对弹劾特朗普兴趣不大,但其内阁可能是另一回事。舒默拒绝在周三说明选举结果是否赋予民主党“授权”去罢免国防部长佩特·海格塞斯,这是一项政治上分裂的举动。

Other bicameral priorities include the Trump administration’s oversight of the housing sector; its handling of tariff exemptions and refunds; and its forays into Venezuela and Iran, particularly when it comes to the latter’s impact on gas prices. Schumer on Wednesday promised that Democrats would wield their power of the purse to “end the war.”Democrats have indicated little interest in impeaching Trump, but his Cabinet could be another matter. Schumer declined to say Wednesday whether the election results gave Democrats a “mandate” to remove Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, a politically divisive move.

无论如何,白宫内部的人都不惊讶即将展开的民主党主导调查——特朗普顾问告诉Semafor,他们预料到如果共和党在中期选举中表现不佳,情况会如此。一些政府官员已经寻求法律顾问。

Either way, the looming Democrat-led investigations are no surprise to those inside the White House — the Trump adviser told Semafor they expected as much should Republicans perform poorly in the midterms. Some administration officials have already sought legal counsel.

伊莲娜和谢尔比的观点:不要相信任何乐观的言辞:民主党人并不特别愿意与总统合作,尤其是现在他们已经掌握了选民不满的证据。白宫现在的尖锐只是调查开始后它将如何反应的预演。

eleanor and shelby’s view Don’t believe any rosy rhetoric: Democrats aren’t particularly interested in working with the president, especially now that they have proof of voters’ discontent. And the White House’s prickliness now is just a preview of how it will react once the investigations begin.

“无论总统在不在,我们都会努力降低成本,” 施鲁默在周二接受记者采访时说,记者询问民主党如何与特朗普合作。

“We will work hard to drive costs down, with the president or without him,” Schumer told a reporter Tuesday who asked how Democrats might work with Trump.

“如果另一边愿意与我们合作,推动美国人民所要求的大胆、戏剧性、决定性的改变,我们会坐下来进行对话,” 众议院少数党领袖哈基姆·杰弗里斯随后表示。争议空间民主党雄心勃勃的调查计划并非没有风险。

“If the other side of the aisle wants to work with us to deliver the type of bold, dramatic, and decisive change the American people are demanding, we’ll sit down and we’ll have that conversation,” House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries said later. Room for Disagreement Democrats’ ambitious investigative plans aren’t without their own risks.

“国会民主党人做得太多的风险;他们的眼光可能比胃口更大,” 迈尔·布朗的乔纳森·贝克尔,前参议院民主党助手说。

“There’s a risk for congressional Democrats of doing too much; of having their eyes be bigger than their stomach,” Mayer Brown’s Jonathan Becker, a former Senate Democratic aide, said.

“我想他们会试图聚焦几个大主题,” 他继续说。“国会民主党人最终能否落实则是另一回事。” 重要的民主党人可能没有机会弹劾海格塞斯:特朗普一直在询问顾问国防部长是否应保留职位,熟悉此事的人向 CBS 新闻透露。

“I would imagine there’s an attempt to try and hone in on a few big themes,” he continued. “Whether congressional Democrats can ultimately follow through is another story.”Notable Democrats might not get the chance to impeach Hegseth: Trump has been asking advisers whether the Defense secretary should keep his job, people familiar with the conversations told CBS News.

一位金融服务行业游说者告诉《Politico》监管机构“可能会在证人席上花更多时间,而不是制定规则”,并补充说“让监管者忙于作证一直是减缓他们进度的最有效方式之一”。

One financial services lobbyist told Politico that regulators “will likely spend more time in the witness chair than writing rules,” adding that “keeping regulators busy testifying has always been one of the most effective ways to slow them down.”

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