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民主党人准备掌控国会——并调查特朗普的一切Democrats are ready to run Congress — and investigate all things Trump

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民主党人有望赢得对国会的完全控制权,这为下一届国会设定了毫不留情的监督平台,将聚焦特朗普政府以及共和党过去两年不愿审视的特殊利益集团。

Democrats are on track to win complete control of Congress, setting the stage for an unrelenting oversight platform in the next Congress that will zero in on both the Trump administration and the special interests that Republicans were reluctant to scrutinize over the last two years.

根据对十几位议员、助手和律师的采访,民主党人计划利用新的传票权和议程设置权,针对特朗普总统家族成员可能存在的腐败、埃隆·马斯克对政府效率部的领导以及国土安全部激进的移民执法策略。

According to interviews with more than a dozen lawmakers, aides and attorneys, Democrats plan to use their new subpoena power and agenda-setting authority to target possible corruption among members of President Donald Trump’s family, Elon Musk’s leadership of the Department of Government Efficiency and the Department of Homeland Security’s aggressive immigration enforcement tactics.

他们可能要求大型科技公司首席执行官就社交媒体成瘾、人工智能的危险以及数据中心对当地社区造成的负面影响作证。他们可能传唤主要石油公司的负责人,就有关该行业为继续获取巨额利润而发动长达数十年的气候虚假信息运动的指控作出回应。而这只是待办事项清单上的几项而已。

They could demand testimony from the chief executives of Big Tech on social media addiction, the dangers of artificial intelligence and the negative impacts data centers are having on local communities. They could haul in the heads of leading oil companies to answer for allegations the industry waged a decadeslong climate misinformation campaign to continue reaping massive profits. And these are just a few items on the to-do list.

“我预计政府与国会之间将上演一些相当史诗级的对决,私营部门的目标对象也准备好反击国会,”霍金路伟律师事务所合伙人、前众议院多数党领袖埃里克·坎托的助手亚伦·卡特勒说。

“I’d expect some pretty epic battles between the administration and Congress, as well as private sector targets that are prepared to fight back against Congress,” said Aaron Cutler, a partner at Hogan Lovells Cadwalader and former aide to former House Majority Leader Eric Cantor.

卡特勒补充说,许多华盛顿大型律师事务所预计民主党将迎来一个有利的夜晚,已经开始聘用经验丰富的律师,帮助客户应对新的国会审查。

Many major Washington law firms, expecting a favorable night for Democrats, have already started hiring experienced lawyers to help their clients navigate new congressional scrutiny, Cutler added.

“请律师吧,”加利福尼亚州众议员罗伯特·加西亚周二在社交媒体上发帖写道,此时该党的众议院多数地位正逐渐明朗。加西亚是众议院监督与政府改革委员会的首席民主党议员。

“LAWYER UP,” Rep. Robert Garcia of California, the top Democrat on the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee, posted on social media Tuesday as the party’s House majority was coming into focus.

然而,风险在于民主党人庞大的调查雄心可能适得其反,占用本可用于推动立法的精力。尽管特朗普不太可能签署民主党送交他办公桌的许多法案——如果不是被视为“必须通过”的法案的话——但民主党人仍将面临压力,需要表明他们能有所作为,哪怕只是为一个立法议程奠定基础,以便该党在2028年同时夺回白宫时能够付诸实施。

The risk, however, is that Democrats’ vast investigative ambitions backfire, sucking up oxygen that might otherwise be spent trying to legislate. Though Trump is unlikely to sign many, if any, bills Democrats send to his desk that aren’t considered “must-pass,” Democrats will still be under pressure to show they can do something, even if it’s just laying the groundwork for a legislative agenda the party can enact if they also retake the White House in 2028.

“我认为我们会优先关注那些对美国民众生活成本产生影响的事情——所以是政府中任何推高成本的腐败行为,”参议员亚当·希夫(民主党-加利福尼亚州)说。他是参议院司法委员会成员,曾在众议院任职期间主导了第一个特朗普政府时期对总统的弹劾程序。希夫提出,其中一条潜在的调查线索可能针对亚马逊。

“I think we would put the priority on things that have had an impact on cost of living for the American people — so any kind of corruption with the administration that has raised costs,” said Sen. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), a member of the Senate Judiciary Committee who, as a member of the House, led impeachment proceedings against the president in the first Trump administration. Schiff suggested one such potential line of inquiry could be into Amazon.

“如果联邦合同决策的作出不是因为供应商拥有最好的产品或以最优价格提供产品,而是因为——就亚马逊而言——它愿意花4000万美元拍一部关于梅拉尼娅(特朗普)的烂片,这是否导致亚马逊在云计算合同或其他国防合同中获得了优势——这类事情让纳税人花钱,让消费者花更多钱,而且已经有太多这样那样的商业利益输送了,”希夫说,他指的是第一夫人。

“If federal contracting decisions are made not because a vendor has the best product or is offering it for the best price, but because, in the case of Amazon, it was willing to pay $40 million for a crappy movie about Melania [Trump], is that resulting in Amazon getting an advantage in cloud computing contracts or other defense contracts — that's the kind of thing that costs taxpayers money, costs consumers more money, and there have been so many business payoffs of one sort or another,” said Schiff, referring to the first lady.

在众议院方面,新泽西州众议员弗兰克·帕隆——众议院能源和商业委员会的首席民主党人——希望调查监控定价问题,即AI工具追踪客户的在线习惯,以确定他们应该为食品杂货等基本商品支付多少钱——并可能在此过程中推高所有人的成本。这是一个能激发进步派热情的问题,比如国会进步核心小组主席、得克萨斯州的格雷格·卡萨尔,也能激发共和党人:密苏里州参议员乔什·霍利在8月就此问题举行了听证会。

Over in the House, Rep. Frank Pallone of New Jersey, the top Democrat on the House Energy and Commerce Committee, wants to look into surveillance pricing, in which AI tools track a customer's online habits to determine how much they should be paying for basic goods like groceries — and potentially driving up costs for everyone in the process. It’s an issue that energizes progressives, like Congressional Progressive Caucus Chair Greg Casar of Texas, as well as Republicans: Sen. Josh Hawley of Missouri held a hearing on the issue in August.

据几位委员会资深民主党人和民主党国会助手透露,民主党人预计还将在数据中心监督方面继续推进,包括要求运营商承诺承担与其基础设施相关的全部能源成本。

Democrats are likewise expected to build on their oversight of data centers, including operators’ commitments to cover the full energy costs associated with their infrastructure, according to several senior committee Democrats and Democratic congressional aides.

他们表示,还将设法揭露政府的行动可能如何推高能源价格、加剧污染,从伊朗战争到取消和拖延可再生能源项目。对处方药定价的调查也可能促成旨在降低医疗成本的政策建议。

They say they will also try to expose ways in which the administration’s actions could be contributing to high energy prices and more pollution, from the Iran war to the cancellation and slow-walking of renewable energy projects. Inquiries into prescription drug pricing could also lead to policy recommendations aimed at lowering health care costs.

但民主党人也可能走向与一些成员冲突的局面,这些成员意图以更具党派性、毫不留情的方式履行监督职责。

But Democrats also could be heading towards a clash with some members intent on pursuing a more partisan, take-no-prisoners approach toward their oversight duties.

例如,加西亚和马里兰州众议员杰米·拉斯金——司法委员会中的民主党首席议员——已明确表示,他们认为杰弗里·爱泼斯坦调查是未竟之事。中期选举前一周,拉斯金发布了一份工作人员报告,详细列出五名不同女性对特朗普的性侵指控,这可能预示了民主党人可能采取的调查方向。

For instance, Garcia and Rep. Jamie Raskin of Maryland, the top Democrat on the Judiciary Committees, have made clear they consider the Jeffrey Epstein investigation unfinished business. Raskin, a week before the midterms, released a staff report detailing sexual assault allegations against Trump by five separate women in a possible preview of the lines of inquiry Democrats could pursue.

民主党人可能对任意数量的内阁官员发起政治上分裂的弹劾程序,这一可能性也赫然存在。一些民主党人急于赶总统本人下台,拉斯金在夏季曾表示他不会排除这一选项——尽管该党在参议院肯定仍远达不到定罪所需的三分之二多数。

The possibility that Democrats could undertake politically divisive impeachment proceedings against any number of Cabinet officials also looms large. Some Democrats are eager to oust the president himself, with Raskin saying over the summer he would not rule that out — even though the party is certain to remain well short of the two-thirds needed to convict in the Senate.

“我要直奔最高目标:唐纳德·特朗普,”众议院司法委员会成员、宾夕法尼亚州民主党众议员萨默·李在一场关于弹劾的采访中说。“然后是所有参与让他做他所做之事的,或与他合谋做非法事情的人。”特朗普身边很可能承受民主党大部分审查的一个人是国防部长皮特·赫格塞斯,他已经是众议院弹劾行动的目标。

“I want to go straight to the top: Donald Trump,” Rep. Summer Lee (D-Pa.), a member of the House Judiciary Committee, said in an interview regarding impeachment. “And then everybody who was complicit in allowing him to do what he's done, or working in concert with him on illegal things.”One person in Trump’s orbit likely to absorb much of Democrats’ scrutiny is Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, who is already the subject of a House impeachment effort.

如果华盛顿州民主党众议员亚当·史密斯决定恢复一个专门负责五角大楼监督问题的小委员会,明年赫格塞斯和国防部可能面临更多审查。史密斯有望成为下一任众议院军事委员会主席。

Hegseth and the Defense Department could face even more scrutiny next year if Rep. Adam Smith, the Washington Democrat in line to be the next chair of the House Armed Services Committee, decides to revive a subcommittee dedicated solely to Pentagon oversight issues.

史密斯需要在就年度国防政策法案达成两党妥协的需求,与其成员想要追究的整个五角大楼争议清单之间取得平衡。这包括对伊朗战争的成本和影响进行全面核算、军队政治化以及赫格塞斯本人的表现。

Smith will need to balance a need to reach bipartisan compromise on an annual defense policy package with the whole list of Pentagon controversies his members want to pursue. That includes a full accounting of the cost and impact of the Iran war, politicization of the military and Hegseth’s own performance.

“坦率地说,唐纳德·特朗普早就应该把这个人解雇了,”军事委员会成员、宾夕法尼亚州民主党众议员克里斯·德卢齐奥在一次采访中说。“我认为这场伊朗战争是一场灾难。它是导致生活成本紧急状况的主要因素之一。美国人对此很愤怒。”在众议院筹款委员会,民主党人希望提出新提案,扩大受欢迎的儿童税收抵免,并增加育儿开支减免,并可能与共和党人就与退休人员相关的税收问题合作。

“To be candid, Donald Trump should have already fired this guy,” Rep. Chris Deluzio (D-Pa.), a member of the Armed Services Committee, said in an interview. “I think this Iran war has been disastrous. It's a major part of contributing to the cost of living emergency. American people are mad about it.”On the House Ways and Means Committee, Democrats want to put forward new proposals to expand the popular child tax credit and beef up breaks for child-care expenses, and potentially work with Republicans on tax issues relating to retirees.

参议院财政委员会可能会审议参议院可能的下一任民主党领袖查克·舒默在夏天提出的一个想法,即将企业股票回购税提高四倍。

The Senate Finance Committee could take up an idea floated over the summer by the likely incoming Senate Democratic Leader, Chuck Schumer, to quadruple a tax on stock buybacks by corporations.

但民主党税务起草者同样可能在明年仔细审查一项有争议的决定,该决定作为总统与司法部之间更广泛和解的一部分,使特朗普免于国税局审计;他们也可能审查国税局与国土安全部在打击非法移民方面的合作。他们还表示计划调查科技行业对企业税收减免的使用情况,包括是否应允许Meta首席执行官马克·扎克伯格就其公司数据中心建设申请研究补贴。

But Democratic taxwriters are just as likely to spend next year scrutinizing the controversial decision to excuse Trump from IRS audits as part of a broader settlement between the president and the Justice Department, as well as the tax agency’s collaboration with Homeland Security to crack down on illegal immigration. They’ve also signaled plans to look into the tech industry’s use of corporate tax breaks, including whether Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg’s should be allowed to claim a research subsidy in conjunction with his company’s data center construction.

预计将分别重返众议院筹款委员会和参议院财政委员会主席职位的众议员理查德·尼尔(民主党-马萨诸塞州)和参议员罗恩·怀登(民主党-俄勒冈州),可能面临再次要求获取特朗普仍未公开的纳税申报表的新呼声——这是两人在特朗普第一任期内都曾应对的要求。

Rep. Richard Neal (D-Mass.) and Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.), who are expected to return as chairs of House Ways and Means and Senate Finance, could face renewed calls to seize Trump’s still-hidden tax returns — a demand both men contended with during the first Trump administration.

参议院的主要监督小组——国土安全与政府事务委员会——可能将重点放在国土安全部执行特朗普政府大规模驱逐议程上。

The Senate’s primary oversight panel, the Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee, could center on DHS’s execution of the Trump administration’s mass deportation agenda.

预计明年将出任国土安全委员会主席的参议员玛吉·哈桑(民主党-新罕布什尔州)在过去一年里一直在组建团队,帮助她利用这一职位“调查并追究特朗普总统及其政府广泛腐败和不当行为的责任”,一位获准匿名描述其私下计划的人士说。该团队成员曾在白宫、国土安全部和卫生与公众服务部工作。

Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-N.H.), who is in line to chair Homeland Security next year, has spent the past year building a team to help her use her position to “investigate and hold President Trump and his Administration accountable for its widespread corruption and wrongdoing,” said a person granted anonymity to describe her private planning. Members of that team have experience working in the White House, DHS and the Department of Health and Human Services.

该人士说,哈桑的工作人员将投入资源,聚焦于“恶劣的”不当行为,即那些“明显遭到多数美国人反对”的行为。

Hassan’s staff, the person said, will deploy resources to focus on “egregious” wrongdoing where there is “clear disapproval from the majority of Americans.”

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