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华尔街日报

如果民主党掌控国会,商界期待什么If Democrats Control Congress, Here’s What the Business World Is Expecting

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(黛西·科皮克斯/《华尔街日报》,盖蒂图片社)(Daisy Korpics/WSJ, Getty)

民主党正竭力争取在国会两院均获得多数席位——而商界在此事上利害攸关。

Democrats are vying to gain a majority in both chambers of Congress—and the business world has plenty at stake.

民调显示,民主党极有可能夺回众议院控制权,在参议院也颇具胜算,但立法将面临困难,特朗普总统已承诺要做“否决先生”。民主党届时应能凸显其议程——从关税减免到遏制医疗成本——并对与其优先事项相悖的企业和政府机构进行审查。

Polls are showing Democrats have a strong chance of taking the House and a pretty good shot at the Senate, but passing laws will be difficult, with President Trump already promising to be “Mr. Veto.”Democrats should be able to highlight their agenda—from tariff relief to reining in healthcare costs—and scrutinize companies and government agencies at odds with their priorities.

新的监督权力将允许民主党调查他们一直诟病的许多问题——从第一家族的加密货币交易到政府合同涉嫌的偏袒行为。以下是“蓝色浪潮”可能意味着什么的展望:整个商界,从银行到科技巨头再到大型石油公司,都担心民主党控制的参议院将启动调查并动用传票权力。该党承诺将聚焦特朗普家族及腐败指控,深挖大企业的政治捐款。

New oversight powers will allow Democrats to investigate many of the issues they have been complaining about—from the first family’s crypto deals to alleged favoritism in government contracts. Here’s a look at what a “Blue Wave” could mean: Across the business world, from banks to technology giants to major oil companies, there is concern a Democratic-controlled Senate will fire up investigations and wield the power of the subpoena. The party has promised to focus on the Trump family and allegations of corruption, digging into donations from big businesses.

对于包括加密货币公司在内的银行和金融机构,关键人物是伊丽莎白·沃伦(民主党-马萨诸塞州),她可能掌管参议院银行委员会。沃伦一直在发函索要与特朗普家族交易、人工智能项目、首次公开募股(IPO)及美联储相关的详细信息。她极可能传唤众多首席执行官出席听证会。

For banks and financial firms, including crypto companies, the person to watch is Elizabeth Warren (D., Mass.), who could take control of the Senate Banking Committee. Warren has been firing off letters asking for details of dealings with the Trump family, artificial-intelligence projects, initial public offerings and the Federal Reserve. She would likely haul in many chief executives for hearings.

选民对数据中心的反对呈现显著的两党一致性,但在全国性竞选中,民主党候选人倾向于比共和党对手更怀疑人工智能。

Opposition to data centers is strikingly bipartisan among voters, though in national races, Democratic candidates have tended to lean more AI-skeptic than their Republican counterparts.

在今年夏天的一次新闻发布会上,得克萨斯州美国参议院候选人詹姆斯·塔拉里科批评科技公司,并要求州立法机构不要给出他所谓的“优惠税收协议”。

At a news conference over the summer, Texas U.S. Senate candidate James Talarico criticized tech companies and demanded the state legislature not give out what he called “sweetheart tax deals.”

“现在,没有透明度,没有问责,也没有社区参与,”他说。“人工智能应该为我们工作,而不是与我们作对。”但对数据中心而言,最具影响力的结果可能出现在州一级。在佐治亚州和得克萨斯州——这两个是数据中心开发商最活跃的州——民主党州长候选人呼吁暂时禁止新建服务器农场。密歇根州民主党州长候选人乔斯琳·本森也呼吁实施暂时禁令。

“Right now, there is no transparency, no accountability, no community input,” he said. “AI should be working for us, not against us.”But the most consequential results for data centers may come at the state level. In Georgia and Texas, two of the busiest states for data center developers, Democratic candidates for governor are calling for temporary bans on new server farm construction. Jocelyn Benson, the Democratic candidate for governor in Michigan, is calling for a temporary ban, too.

奥斯汀得克萨斯大学一处投票站外的竞选标语牌。(凯莉·格林利/彭博新闻社)Campaign signs outside a polling station at the University of Texas in Austin. (Kaylee Greenlee/Bloomberg News)

民主党控制的参议院将实际上冻结特朗普对美联储的影响力,使其停留在现状,这远未达到他所寻求的控制程度。

A Democratic Senate would effectively freeze Trump’s influence over the Fed where it is now, which falls well short of the control he has sought.

特朗普一直不掩饰他希望降低利率,他的政府希望美联储放宽对大银行的资本要求,并让加密货币和金融科技公司更容易进入其支付系统。

Trump has made no secret that he wants lower interest rates, and his administration wants the Fed to ease capital requirements for big banks and give crypto and fintech firms easier access to its payment system.

他已任命七名理事中的三名。要在该理事会获得工作多数,特朗普至少需要第四个席位,这需要出现空缺,并有一个愿意批准他首选替代者的参议院。在美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的任期于2028年初结束之前没有预定的空缺,空缺只有在某位理事辞职,或者特朗普成功罢免一位理事时才会出现。

He has appointed three of the seven governors. To gain a working majority on that board, Trump needs at least a fourth seat, which requires a vacancy and a Senate willing to approve his preferred replacement. With no scheduled opening before governor Jerome Powell’s term ends in early 2028, a vacancy would come only if a governor quits or Trump succeeds in ousting one.

农业行业团体也希望民主党扩大由玉米和大豆制成并掺入美国汽油和柴油供应中的生物燃料的使用,这将有助于支撑其农作物需求。民主党通常比产油州的共和党人更支持扩大生物燃料,一些行业官员认为,两党推动可能通过扩大需求来帮助农民。

Farm industry groups are also hopeful Democrats expand the use of biofuels made from corn and soybeans blended into the U.S. gasoline and diesel supply, which would help prop up demand for their crops. Democrats tend to be more friendly to expanded biofuel than oil-state Republicans, and some industry officials think a bipartisan push could help farmers by expanding demand.

“需要更高比例的生物燃料,也需要支持农业需求,”谷物贸易商阿彻丹尼尔斯米德兰公司首席执行官胡安·卢西亚诺周二在与分析师的电话会议上谈及中期选举将如何影响生物燃料政策时表示。“世界目前需要更多能源。”堪萨斯州的美国参议院选举可能对监管信用卡费用的努力产生重大影响。现任共和党参议员罗杰·马歇尔一直是一项可能冲击银行信用卡利润、并削弱维萨和万事达卡主导地位的立法的坚定支持者。

“There is a need for higher biofuels. There is a need for supporting demand for agriculture,” said Juan Luciano, CEO of grain trader Archer Daniels Midland, on a call with analysts on Tuesday about how the midterms will impact biofuel policy. “The world right now needs more energy.”The U.S. Senate race in Kansas could have major implications on efforts to regulate credit-card fees. Sen. Roger Marshall, the incumbent Republican, has been a fierce champion of legislation that could hit banks’ profits from credit cards and chip away at Visa’s and Mastercard’s dominance.

随着特朗普及其盟友力挺马歇尔的竞选活动并强调可负担性问题,他们已成为该立法的积极支持者。特朗普表示希望尽快通过该法案,令商家兴奋,也让一些银行家担忧。民主党也同意降低信用卡费用和成本,这可能使信用卡成为罕见的两党议题。但如果没有马歇尔,该法案将失去共和党方面的关键支持者。

As Trump and his allies have sought to prop up Marshall’s campaign and emphasize affordability issues, they have become vocal supporters of the legislation. Trump said he wanted to pass the bill as soon as possible, exciting merchants and worrying some bankers. Democrats also agree on lowering credit-card fees and costs, which could make cards a rare bipartisan issue. But without Marshall, the bill would lose a key supporter from the GOP side.

特朗普就职后,加密货币及与该行业相关的股票获得重大提振,市场预期共和党将对该行业采取更宽松的监管;但未能通过重大立法改革迅速打击了这种情绪。参议院九月未能推进一项由Coinbase等数字资产巨头支持的法案,该法案本可将大部分加密货币交易置于证券监管机构管辖范围之外。

Cryptocurrencies and stocks tied to the industry received a major boost when Trump took office on expectations that Republicans would regulate the industry with a lighter touch; but the failure to pass major legislative reform has quickly dampened the mood. The Senate failed in September to progress an act supported by Coinbase and other digital-asset giants that would have put most crypto trading outside the purview of securities regulators.

如果民主党获胜,他们可能会审查该行业与特朗普政府的密切关系。这也可能标志着俄亥俄州的谢罗德·布朗重返参议院。他曾因与加密货币公司多年争执而失去席位。

If Democrats win, they are likely to scrutinize the industry’s close ties to the Trump administration. And it could mark the return of Sherrod Brown from Ohio to the Senate. He had lost his seat after sparring with crypto firms for years.

与此同时,特朗普政府对反垄断执法的轻描淡写使得许多行业的公司敢于达成过去数年内不敢尝试的交易。华尔街预计,即使在中期选举中民主党取得进展,特朗普任期剩余期间仍将继续出现大量交易——包括非常大的交易——因为挑战交易的权力掌握在行政部门手中。

Meanwhile, the Trump administration’s light touch on antitrust enforcement has emboldened companies in many industries to strike deals they wouldn’t have attempted in years past. Wall Street anticipates a continued rush of deals—including very large ones—for the remainder of Trump’s presidency even if Democrats gain ground in the midterms, since the power to challenge deals sits with the executive branch.

美国参议院候选人阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德今年早些时候在密歇根州的一场集会上。(艾米莉·罗斯·贝内特为《华尔街日报》拍摄)U.S. Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed at a rally in Michigan earlier this year. (Emily Rose Bennett for WSJ)

政策专家预计,民主党将争取恢复《平价医疗法案》下的补贴,该法案在今年年初已失效。由于失去联邦支持,奥巴马医保计划的费用大幅上涨,导致数百万美国人放弃ACA计划,市场陷入动荡。价格上涨在明年只会继续。

Policy experts expect Democrats to fight to restore subsidies under the Affordable Care Act, which lapsed at the start of this year. The cost of Obamacare plans rose sharply as a result of the lost federal support, leading millions of Americans to drop ACA plans, leaving the market in turmoil. Price hikes are only going to continue next year.

共和党推动的为医疗补助受益人增加“工作要求”的政策也未受到民主党人的欢迎,因为它可能会增加无保险人群。但根据健康政策咨询公司Capitol Street的管理董事Ipsita Smolinski的说法,国会内的民主党人若不同时掌控白宫,可能难以改变该政策。一些进步派民主党人,如密歇根州的Abdul El‑Sayed,正在倡导建立类似“全民医保”的国家医疗方案。

A Republican-driven policy to add “work requirements” for people in Medicaid also hasn’t been popular with Democrats because of its potential to increase the number of uninsured people. But Democrats in Congress might struggle to change that policy without also controlling the White House, according to Ipsita Smolinski, managing director of health policy consulting firm Capitol Street. Some progressive Democrats like Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan have been campaigning on establishing a national healthcare option like Medicare for All.

最近KFF的一项民调显示,66%的受访者支持类似的国家健康计划。但政策专家认为,由于巨额成本和持续的分裂,以及立法者将专注于加强ACA,民主党主导的国会不太可能把这项议程视为现实优先事项。

A recent KFF poll showed 66% of respondents were in favor of a national health plan like that. But policy experts don’t see that being a realistic priority for a Democratic-led Congress because of the massive cost and persistent divisiveness—and because lawmakers will be focused on bolstering the ACA instead.

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