
近两年来,华尔街公司和初创企业享受了唐纳德·特朗普总统推行的全面放松监管议程,该议程放宽了金融危机后的规则,并推动了新兴行业的发展。
For nearly two years, Wall Street firms and startups have enjoyed a sweeping deregulatory agenda from President Donald Trump that relaxed post-financial crisis rules and boosted nascent industries.
特朗普政府官员和监管机构在共和党控制的国会几乎没有遇到阻力的情况下,做出了广泛的改变。但民主党周二的胜利立即改变了华盛顿对待华尔街的方式。
Trump administration officials and regulators made broad changes with little pushback from a GOP-controlled Congress. But Democrats’ victory on Tuesday immediately upends how Washington treats Wall Street.
从加密货币到预测市场和私人信贷,随着民主党准备于明年1月接管众议院和参议院,他们瞄准的目标不胜枚举。
From crypto to prediction markets and private credit, Democrats have no shortage of targets as they prepare to take over both the House and Senate in January.
“我们将拥有的最大权力,将是我们可以通过监督发现什么,以及我们可以通过拨款程序做什么,”众议员肖恩·卡斯滕在10月接受彭博新闻社采访时表示。卡斯滕正在争取成为众议院金融服务委员会的民主党首席议员,这意味着要取代自2013年以来一直担任该职位的资深众议员马克西娜·沃特斯。
“The biggest powers we will have will be what we can discover through oversight and what we can do through the appropriations process,” Representative Sean Casten said in an October interview with Bloomberg News. Casten is vying to be the top Democrat on the House Financial Services Committee, a feat that would mean ousting long-time Representative Maxine Waters from a role she has held since 2013.
沃特斯仍被认为是这一实权职位的热门人选,而马萨诸塞州民主党人伊丽莎白·沃伦则是竞争参议院银行委员会主席的主要竞争者。以下是民主党明年可能重点关注的一些金融领域:另类资产行业将受到更多关注,尽管目前尚不清楚这仅会表现为听证会(可能包括私人信贷高管),还是会升级为更高程度的国会行动。该行业因对某些基金实施赎回限制而受到审视。
Waters is still considered a favorite for the powerful role while Massachusetts Democrat Elizabeth Warren is a top contender to lead the Senate Banking Committee. Here are some of the financial areas that Democrats may focus on on next year: The alternative assets industry is set to get more attention, though it’s unclear yet whether that will manifest in just hearings, potentially including private credit executives, or an even greater level of congressional action. That industry has drawn scrutiny for imposing withdrawal limits on certain funds.
沃伦呼吁财政部和其他金融监管机构对私人信贷市场进行更多压力测试。
Warren has called on the Treasury Department and other financial regulators to conduct more stress testing of the private credit market.
沃特斯也对劳工部一项提案提出质疑,该提案将给予私人信贷和加密货币更多进入退休储蓄计划的机会。该计划被普遍视为华尔街的胜利,并可能为黑石集团和阿波罗全球管理公司等企业打开机会之门。
Waters has also questioned a Labor Department proposal giving private credit and crypto more access to retirement savings plans. That plan is widely considered a win for Wall Street and would potentially open up opportunities for firms like Blackstone Inc. and Apollo Global Management Inc.

Better Markets 首席运营官兼政策总监阿曼达·费舍尔此前表示,如果发生涉及私人信贷或人工智能等事项的宏观事件,众议院金融服务委员会或参议院银行委员会的民主党人会全力介入该问题。
Amanda Fischer, chief operating officer and policy director at Better Markets, said previously if there is a macro event involving matters like private credit or artificial intelligence, then Democrats on the House Financial Services Committee or the Senate Banking Committee would be all over the issue.
民主党高层还批评特朗普时代的提案,这些提案将放宽贷款机构必须持有作为潜在损失缓冲的资本量,称这些计划可能“增加大型银行倒闭的可能性,并导致随后的纳税人救助”。虽然一些支持者称这些努力对于促进经济增长和增强竞争力是必要的,但批评者认为这些变化可能允许银行承担更多风险,并威胁金融稳定。
Top Democrats have also been critical of Trump-era proposals that would ease how much capital lenders must hold as a buffer against potential losses, saying the plans could “increase the likelihood of big bank failures and subsequent taxpayer bailouts.”While some proponents say those efforts are necessary to boost economic growth and increase competitiveness, critics argue the changes could allow banks to take on more risk and threaten financial stability.
目前担任参议院银行委员会民主党首席议员的沃伦,还呼吁司法部对美国银行及其高管展开刑事调查,此前这家华尔街贷款巨头承认违反了联邦反洗钱法。
Warren, who currently serves as the top Democrat on the Senate Banking Committee, has also called on the Justice Department to open a criminal investigation into Bank of America Corp. and its executives after the Wall Street lending giant admitted it violated federal anti-money-laundering laws.
上个月,美国监管机构对该银行处以超过 12.1 亿美元的罚款,该行当时表示已与监管机构在金融犯罪合规方面开展合作。
The bank was fined more than $1.21 billion by US regulators last month and said at the time that it has worked with regulators on financial crime compliance.
民主党人可能会就预测市场行业向监管机构和公司施压,该行业震动了体育博彩界,并引发了一场可能最终上诉至美国最高法院的法律斗争。
Democrats are likely to press regulators and companies about the prediction market industry, which has rocked the sports betting world and spurred a legal fight with states that could end up at the US Supreme Court.
随着加密货币怀疑论者谢罗德·布朗重返参议院,他有可能在监督金融监管机构的关键委员会中发挥主导作用。参议院银行委员会监管证券交易委员会等机构,参议院农业委员会监管商品期货交易委员会。
With crypto skeptic Sherrod Brown returning to the Senate, there’s a possibility he may take a leading role on a key committee overseeing financial regulators. The Senate Banking Committee oversees regulators like the Securities and Exchange Commission with the Senate Agriculture Committee overseeing the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
美国商品期货交易委员会(CFTC)因拥抱数字资产和它所监管的预测市场交易量的激增而声名鹊起。特朗普一直支持CFTC作为预测市场的唯一监管机构,而预测市场允许客户对几乎所有事情进行下注。唐纳德·特朗普 Jr. 也是该行业的支持者,同时担任 Kalshi 和 Polymarket 两家公司的顾问。
The CFTC has surged to prominence thanks to its embrace of digital assets and the explosion of prediction markets trading it oversees. Trump has backed the CFTC as the sole regulator of prediction markets, which allow customers to bet on just about anything. Donald Trump Jr. is also a supporter of the industry, serving as an adviser to both Kalshi and Polymarket.
Polymarket 在周二国会控制权移交前发表声明称:“我们的平台是一家机构级交易所,拥有强大的市场诚信和客户保护项目。”Polymarket 表示欢迎与两党议员合作的机会,以帮助监管并实现预测市场的全部潜力。Kalshi 未予置评。
“Our platform is an institutional-grade exchange with strong market integrity and customer protection programs,” Polymarket said in a statement before control of Congress was called on Tuesday. “We welcome the opportunity to work with lawmakers on both sides of the aisle to help regulate and realize the full potential of prediction markets.”Kalshi declined to comment.
共和党众议员詹姆斯·科默目前担任众议院监督委员会主席,此前已对平台上的内幕交易指控展开调查,但不清楚该调查在民主党明年接管该委员会后可能如何演变。Kalshi 和 Polymarket 均表示反对内幕交易,并向执法部门和联邦监管机构提供举报线索。
Republican Representative James Comer, who currently chairs the House Oversight Committee, already has been investigating allegations of insider trading on the platforms but it is unclear how that probe might evolve with Democrats in charge of the panel next year. Both Kalshi and Polymarket have said they are opposed to insider trading and send tips to law enforcement and federal regulators.

CFTC 近期没有举行任何国会监督听证会,因此民主党人可能渴望对该行业以及监管机构与其之间的互动进行一次深入的审查。
The CFTC hasn’t had any congressional oversight hearings recently, so Democrats could be eager for an intense look into not only the industry but also the regulator’s interactions with it.
许多加密行业参与者怀疑,下一届国会不会在本届所谓的《清晰法案》未能通过美国参议院之后,就新的数字资产市场结构立法展开讨论。相反,立法者似乎准备将重点放在该行业与特朗普及其家族各种企业之间的伦理问题上,此前总统报告了一笔价值14亿美元的加密货币收益,这成为该里程碑法案的关键障碍。
Many crypto industry players are skeptical the next Congress will take up fresh digital asset market structure legislation after the so-called Clarity Act failed to get through the US Senate. Instead, lawmakers appear poised to focus on ethics questions surrounding the industry’s connections with Trump and his family’s various ventures, after the president reported a $1.4 billion crypto windfall that became a key roadblock for the landmark bill.
此外,Binance——全球最大的加密货币交易所之一——创纪录的63亿美元黑客攻击事件,也可能为关于数字资产网络安全和消费者保护领域的广泛听证会提供案例。
Separately, the record $6.3 billion hack of Binance, one of the world’ largest crypto exchanges, could also provide a case for broad hearings on digital asset cybersecurity and consumer protections in the space.
人工智能行业的融资安排已经引起关注,因为科技制造商与初创公司之间的循环交易引发了担忧。
The artificial intelligence industry’s financing arrangements have already garnered scrutiny, as circular deals between technology manufacturers and startups prompt concerns.
随着Anthropic PBC等公司计划在不久的将来上市,立法者已经呼吁人工智能行业更透明地说明,如果它们经历任何财务或运营动荡,可能对更广泛的金融稳定构成的潜在风险。
With companies like Anthropic PBC looking to go public in the near future, lawmakers have already called for the AI industry to be more transparent about the potential risks they might pose to broader financial stability should they experience any financial or operational turbulence.
沃伦已标示出人工智能可能给保险行业带来的潜在风险。网络安全也必将成为另一个焦点,因为随着人工智能模型暴露出弱点,华尔街公司正争相加强防御。
Warren has flagged potential AI-linked risks to the insurance industry. Cybersecurity is also sure to be another focus as Wall Street firms rush to bolster their defenses as AI models expose weaknesses.
前财政部官员、金融服务咨询公司Regulatory Intelligence Group创始人彼得·杜加斯表示,监管人工智能行业的尝试可能是下届国会罕见的两党立法切入点之一。
Attempts to regulate the AI industry could be one of the rare points for bipartisan legislation in the next Congress, said Peter Dugas, a former Treasury Department official and founder of the Regulatory Intelligence Group, a financial services consulting firm.

“政府必须以某种方式解决这些问题,以免引发潜在的金融危机,”他在上个月表示。
“The government has to address those things one way or another before it leads to a potential financial crisis,” he said last month.
众议院监督委员会对金融服务业与已定罪性犯罪者杰弗里·爱泼斯坦关系的持续调查,将可能在民主党主导下继续进行。这一问题一直具有两党性质。
Ongoing investigations by the House Oversight Committee into the financial services industry’s ties to convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein will likely continue with Democrats. The issue has been bipartisan.
立法者已经向华尔街公司发送了大量信函,要求详细说明它们与爱泼斯坦及其圈子内其他人的关系。民主党人还提出立法,强制监管机构披露与爱泼斯坦及其关联人有关的财务记录。
Lawmakers have already sent numerous letters to Wall Street firms seeking details of their relationships with Epstein and other individuals in his orbit. Democrats also introduced legislation to force regulators to disclose financial records related to Epstein and his associates.
周二晚间预计民主党将赢得众议院多数席位后不久,众议员罗伯特·加西亚发表声明称,他将在下届国会担任该委员会主席。他的办公室宣传了他在多个领域的工作,包括所谓的“爱泼斯坦档案”。“请好律师吧,”他说。
Shortly after Democrats were projected to win the House on Tuesday evening, Representative Robert Garcia released a statement saying he would become chairman of the panel in the next Congress. His office touted his work in several areas, including on the so-called Epstein files. “Lawyer up,” he said.