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彭博社

中国银行融资成本因央行利率转变创下历史新低China Bank Funding Costs Hit Record Low on PBOC Rate Shift

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中国银行发行的短期债务收益率在央行将隔夜回购利率转为主要政策锚后跌至历史新低,市场将此举视为事实上的宽松。

Yields on short-term debt issued by Chinese banks dropped to a record low after the central bank transitioned to the overnight repo rate as its primary policy anchor, in a move seen by markets as de facto easing.

据彭博自2015年10月起的数据显示,中国最高评级贷款机构发行的一年期可转让存单(NCD)收益率在周三降至1.39%。

Yields on the one-year negotiable certificates of deposit, or NCDs, issued by China’s top-rated lenders, dropped to 1.39% on Wednesday, according to Bloomberg data going back to October 2015.

新设的1.25%隔夜逆回购利率比此前的七天基准利率1.4%低15个基点,实际上降低了整个同业系统的融资成本。政策的连锁效应也波及主权债务,使中国10年期国债收益率升至1.6%,接近历史低点。

At 1.25%, the new overnight reverse repo rate sits 15 basis points below the former seven-day benchmark of 1.4%, effectively lowering funding costs across the interbank system. The policy ripple effects have also reached sovereign debt, pushing China’s 10-year yield to 1.6%, near a historic low.

国盛证券分析师杨业伟和易毅在一份研究报告中预计,一年期NCD收益率将进一步跌至1.30%至1.35%,而10年期国债收益率将在年末至明年初降至1.5%。他们写道:“政策利率基准的转变降低了市场利率的有效锚”。

Guosheng Securities analysts Yang Yewei and Yi Yi expect one-year NCD yields to fall further to 1.30%-1.35% and 10-year sovereign bond yields to decline to 1.5% into year-end and early next year, according to a research note. “The shift in the policy rate benchmark has lowered the effective anchor of market interest rates,” they wrote.

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