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蓝色浪潮险些吞没美国一些最红的州,选举数据暴露共和党险胜Blue wave nearly swallowed some of America's reddest states as election data exposes GOP's close calls

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田纳西州共和党参议员马莎·布莱克本正在竞选2026年州长,以接替因任期限制无法连任的共和党州长比尔·李。(Joe Raedle/Getty Images)Republican Sen. Marsha Blackburn of Tennessee is running for governor in the 2026 race to succeed term-limited GOP Gov. Bill Lee. (Joe Raedle/Getty Images)

在周二晚间民主党大获全胜的选举之夜,传统上坚定的共和党大本营中的多场竞选结果出奇地接近翻盘,甚至在共和党候选人拥有压倒性资金优势的州份也是如此。

Races in traditionally staunch Republican strongholds came incredibly close to flipping amid Tuesday night's landslide Democratic victory, even in states where GOP candidates enjoyed overwhelming financial advantages.

选举周期后期出现了共和党形势严峻的迹象,当时福克斯新闻将南卡罗来纳州和堪萨斯州这两个拥有数十年共和党忠诚投票记录的州的参议院竞选评为“竞争激烈”。然而,随着选举之夜计票结果陆续出炉,显而易见的是,甚至连几乎没人认为会有竞争的州份,如路易斯安那州和田纳西州,也都在极微弱的差距内濒临“变蓝”。

Signs of something going horribly wrong for the GOP appeared late in the election cycle when Fox News rated the Senate races in South Carolina and Kansas, two states with decades-long loyalty streaks for the Republican Party, as competitive. As results poured in on election night, however, it became clear that even states that practically nobody thought would be competitive, such as Louisiana and Tennessee, were coming within a razor's edge of going blue.

密西西比州被大多数政治预测者视为最稳固的共和党席位之一,截至发稿时仍未决出胜负,现任共和党参议员辛迪·海德-史密斯与其民主党挑战者斯科特·科洛姆仅相差几十票。美国看到了蓝色浪潮的到来——但严重低估了民主党海啸的规模以田纳西州为例,民主党州长提名人杰里·格林的竞选支出仅略超200万美元,而共和党提名人、参议员马莎·布莱克本投入的竞选资金近1300万美元,远超前者。外部团体又燃烧了数百万资金助推布莱克本的竞选。

Mississippi, seen by most political forecasters as among the safest of GOP seats, remains undecided as of publication, with just dozens of votes separating incumbent Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith and her Democratic challenger, Scott Colom. AMERICA SAW THE BLUE WAVE COMING — BUT DRASTICALLY UNDERESTIMATED THE EXTENT OF THE DEM TSUNAMI In Tennessee, for instance, Democratic gubernatorial nominee Jerri Green spent just over $2 million, dwarfed by the nearly $13 million Sen. Marsha Blackburn the GOP nominee, poured into the race. Outside groups burned through millions more to boost Blackburn’s candidacy.

在全美最红的州份之一,以近6比1的资金优势超支民主党人,最终结果却是布莱克本以不到三个百分点的优势击败格林,而该州在2024年支持共和党的优势接近30个百分点。路易斯安那州的参议院竞选讲述了类似的故事。

The result of outspending a Democrat by nearly 6-to-1 in one of the reddest states in the country was Blackburn defeating Green by less than three points in a state that favored Republicans by almost 30 points in 2024. Louisiana’s Senate race told a similar story.

共和党提名人、众议员朱莉娅·莱特洛及其盟友为赢得该席位支出约940万美元,而民主党在该竞选上的支出约为389万美元。莱特洛最终以不到两个百分点的优势获胜,而特朗普总统在2024年在该州以约22个百分点的优势获胜,这凸显了共和党在其长期大本营之一的优势正在剧烈侵蚀。

The Republican nominee, Rep. Julia Letlow, and her allies paid out approximately $9.4 million to win the seat, compared to the roughly $3.89 million Democrats spent on the race. Letlow ultimately won by just under two points in a state President Donald Trump carried by roughly 22 points in 2024, underscoring the dramatic erosion of the GOP's advantage in one of its longtime strongholds.

许多民主党策略师和观察人士哀叹,该党没有在胜算渺茫的竞选中投入更多资金,否则明年年初新一批议员和州长就职时,自由派本可以取得更大的优势。

Many Democratic strategists and observers have lamented that the party didn’t spend more money on long-shot races that could have delivered even more commanding margins to liberals when the new class of lawmakers and governors take office early next year.

堪萨斯州民主党人亚当·汉密尔顿击败了参议员罗杰·马歇尔,终结了该州长达94年未曾赢得参议院选举的纪录。(Jim Vondruska/Getty Images)Democrat Adam Hamilton defeated Sen. Roger Marshall in Kansas, ending the state’s 94-year streak without a Democratic Senate win. (Jim Vondruska/Getty Images)

就连几乎已成为共和党崛起代名词的佛罗里达州,也出现共和党险些失去控制权的局面。一些人称,这一结果之所以得以避免,要归功于州长罗恩·德桑蒂斯构建的政治机器。首位穆斯林参议员、首位黑人女性州长:2026年中期选举结果创造历史。共和党在争夺该州州长官邸的竞选中支出约为民主党的五倍,最终以不到两个百分点的优势获胜。2022年,德桑蒂斯以近20个百分点的优势拿下该州。共和党在这个阳光之州的参议院竞选中以类似优势获胜,支出同样比对手多出数百万美元。

Even Florida, a state that has become nearly synonymous with Republican ascendancy, saw the GOP come dangerously close to losing its grasp, an outcome that was avoided, in the telling of some, thanks to the political apparatus constructed by Gov. Ron DeSantis FIRST MUSLIM SENATOR, FIRST BLACK FEMALE GOVERNOR: 2026 MIDTERM ELECTION RESULTS MAKE HISTORY Republicans outspent Democrats by roughly five-to-one in their bid for the state’s governor's mansion, ultimately winning by less than two points. In 2022, DeSantis carried the state by nearly 20 points. The GOP won its Senate race in the Sunshine State by a similar margin, also outspending the opposition by millions.

詹姆斯·塔拉里科战胜肯·帕克斯顿,帮助得克萨斯州成为2026年中期选举中最大冷门之一,民主党在特朗普2024年曾以两位数优势拿下的该州翻转了一个参议院席位。(Brandon Bell/Getty Images)James Talarico’s victory over Ken Paxton helped make Texas one of the biggest upsets of the 2026 midterms, as Democrats flipped a Senate seat in a state Trump carried by double digits in 2024. (Brandon Bell/Getty Images)

类似趋势在全国各地上演,多个在2024年由共和党以两位数优势赢下的众议院和州议会席位,在选举之夜翻转为民主党控制。对共和党而言,这场惨败已在党内引发激烈的相互指责,并很可能蔓延至2028年共和党总统初选。

Similar trends played out across the country, with multiple House and state legislative seats that Republicans won by double digits in 2024, flipping to Democratic control election night bloodbath for the GOP has ignited a brutal blame game within the party that could easily bleed into the 2028 Republican presidential primary.

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