上次选民表态时，唐纳德·特朗普以15个百分点的优势赢得了肯塔基大学所在的国会选区，而该地区的共和党众议员甚至以更大的优势轻松获胜，胜过这位曾经的和未来的总统。
The last time voters had their say, Donald Trump won the congressional district home to the University of Kentucky by 15 points, and the area’s Republican congressman coasted to an even larger victory than the once and future president.
近两年后，肯塔基州第6选区成为民主党在中期竞选中一个可能但艰难的夺取机会，这一竞选出现了蓝色浪潮的警示信号。他们在众议院的竞争版图正深入特朗普腹地，曾经看似共和党稳固的席位如今变得具有竞争力。
Almost two years later, Kentucky’s 6th District is a possible, if difficult, pickup opportunity for Democrats in a midterm campaign that has warning signs of a blue wave Their House playing field is expanding deeper into Trump country Seats that once looked reliable for Republicans are competitive.
问题在于，如果这种浪潮真的出现，它究竟会有多大或会达到多高。
The question is how big that wave could get or how high it may be, if it actually materializes.
共和党在众议院的多数优势如此之薄，以至于民主党只需净增几个席位即可夺回控制权。但选区划分以及全境投入的巨额资金正威胁着破坏民主党的目标。
Republicans’ House majority is so thin that Democrats need to have a net gain of only a few seats to take control. But the map, and the money being spent all throughout it, threatens to spoil Democrats’ aims.
AdImpact的数据显示，从9月初到选举日，全国众议院选区的投入超过10亿美元，目前共和党在财务上占据优势。
More than $1 billion is being put towards House races around the country between the start of September and Election Day, data from AdImpact shows, with Republicans having the financial advantage at this point.
2024年，前副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯赢得的几乎所有选区如今已有同党民主党人代表，这意味着左翼正在争夺的大多数席位正是特朗普两年前赢得的，有些甚至以双位数优势获胜。中期重新划分选区进一步复杂化了局势。北卡罗来纳州、得克萨斯州和佛罗里达州几个最具竞争力的选区正处于民主党目前持有的席位之中，这些席位被共和党重新划分以期翻转；如果民主党在这些选区获胜，将是保护其现有成员而非在华盛顿增加新成员。
Nearly every district former Vice President Kamala Harris carried in 2024 already has a fellow Democrat representing it, meaning that most of the seats the left is chasing are ones Trump won two years ago, some by double digits. Mid-decade redistricting complicated things further. Several of the most competitive races in North Carolina, Texas and Florida are in Democratic-held seats that Republicans redrew to flip, where a blue win would protect someone already in their ranks rather than add one in Washington.
肯塔基州第6选区可能具有重要意义。该地区的投票站在当天晚上就关闭了，如果民主党人能够在这场选举中击败保守派前州参议员拉尔夫·阿尔瓦拉多，那就意味着他们能够赢得全国民主党一直难以争取的选民群体，尤其是在全国更偏向共和党的地区。即使该州州长安迪·贝希尔在三年前的非选举年连任竞选中赢得了该地区，民主党人在那里仍然处于劣势。
Kentucky’s 6th District has the potential to be telling. Polls close early in the night there, and Democrats pulling off a surprise against conservative former state Sen. Ralph Alvarado would mean swaying the kinds of voters that the national party has struggled with, especially in redder parts of the country. Democrats are underdogs there, even after the party’s Gov. Andy Beshear won the area in his off-year re-election bid three years ago.
“特朗普是旧闻了，”肯塔基州中部选区的民主党候选人、前贝希尔工作人员扎克·登博说。“我认为肯定有投票给特朗普但感到被他背叛的人。他说过一些我支持的话，比如不再进行无休止的外国战争。他显然背叛了这个承诺。但我认为，我们赢或输的关键在于选民是否觉得候选人会为他们挺身而出，并反对我们所看到的腐败——这种腐败不仅来自白宫，也来自两党。”
“Trump is old news,” said Zach Dembo, the Democratic nominee for the central Kentucky seat and a former Beshear staffer. “I think certainly there are folks who voted for Trump and feel betrayed by him. There were things he said that I was in favor of, like no more endless foreign wars. He’s clearly betrayed that promise. But really, I think we win or lose based on whether they feel that a candidate is going to stand up for them and stand up to corruption we’re seeing not just from the White House, but from both parties.”
在特朗普的第一个中期选举年2018年，民主党净赢得41个席位，收复了他们在2010年失去的多数席位。在2006年，当时是乔治·W·布什第二任期，民主党净赢得约30个席位，从而翻转了众议院的控制权。在那两年，民主党人的起点席位数约为200席或更少。而今年，他们已经拥有215个席位。
During Trump’s first midterm, in 2018, Democrats netted 41 seats retaking the majority they had lost in 2010. In 2006, during George W. Bush’s second term, they netted about 30 seats to flip the chamber. In both years, Democrats started with about 200 seats or fewer This year, they already have 215.
特朗普在两年前帮助共和党人在重返白宫的道路上赢得下 ballot 选举，如今他坚持保持在竞选活动的中心位置，这可能成为共和党候选人的一个决定性负担，或者也可能是帮助其党避免选民在中期选举中通常对总统所属党施加的惩戒的因素。
Two years after Trump helped carry Republicans down the ballot on his way back to the White House, his determination to stay at the center of the campaign risks becoming a defining liability for GOP candidates, or what helps his party avoid the rebuke voters usually deliver to the president’s party in a midterm.
在亚利桑那州的公开第1选区，特朗普以大约三个百分点的优势赢得该选区，前NFL踢球手杰伊·费利正在竞选以保持该席位由共和党掌握，并指出他与总统的关系。在特朗普上月敦促共和党举行的中期党代会上，费利对MS NOW表示：“人们知道他背书支持我。他们知道我们已经是朋友几十年了。我认为这是一种优势。”他的民主党对手阿米什·沙阿在2024年为该席位的选举中败给了现任共和党议员，而该议员不寻求连任。
In Arizona’s open 1st District, which Trump won by about three points, former NFL kicker Jay Feely is running to keep the seat in Republican hands, and has noted his ties to the president. At the midterm convention Republicans held at Trump’s urging last month, Feely told MS NOW “people know that he endorsed me. They know that we’ve been friends for a couple of decades. I think that’s an asset.”His Democratic opponent, Amish Shah, lost a 2024 race for the seat to the Republican incumbent, who is not seeking reelection.
费利谈到他的对手时说：“我可以说，嘿，我尊重你是一名急诊医生，你一生致力于拯救他人的事实。”……我一生致力于试图拯救这个国家。”即便特朗普发动的中期重新划区行动——旨在保护共和党多数——也未按计划进行。共和党在得克萨斯州、佛罗里达州以及其他几个红州重新划定选区图，以使民主党持有的选区更有利于总统的政党。
“I can say, hey, I respect the fact that you are an ER doctor, that you committed your life to saving people,” Feely said about his rival. “…I’ve committed my life to trying to save this country.”Even the mid-decade redistricting push Trump galvanized to protect the GOP majority hasn’t gone as planned. Republicans redrew maps in Texas, Florida and several other red states to make Democratic-held districts friendlier to the president’s party.
民主党的反击行动仅限于在加利福尼亚州重新划定五个共和党持有的席位。随着全国部分地区提前投票已经开始，许多原本旨在帮助共和党的选区仍然保持竞争激烈。
Democrats’ counter effort has been limited to redrawing five Republican-held seats in California. With early voting underway in parts of the country, many of the districts that were drawn to help Republicans remain competitive.
MS NOW的选举评级显示了竞争格局的广泛程度。在被评为摇摆席位的22场众议院选举中，有八个位于特朗普以两位数优势获胜的选区。其中几个席位是共和党专门重新划定以赶走民主党现任议员的。
MS NOW’s race ratings show how far the field has spread. Of the 22 House races rated toss-ups, eight are in districts Trump won by double digits. Several of those are seats Republicans redrew specifically to oust Democratic incumbents.
目前有六个共和党持有的席位倾向于民主党，几乎全部都是特朗普以个位数优势赢得的选区。其中一个席位属于加利福尼亚州的众议员大卫·瓦拉达奥（共和党，加利福尼亚州），他是最后一位寻求连任且在2021年1月6日国会山袭击事件后投票弹劾特朗普的众议院共和党人；加利福尼亚州民主党重新划定了他的选区，试图将其击败。此外，在被评为倾向共和党的九个共和党持有的席位中，超过一半位于特朗普以两位数优势获胜的选区。
Six Republican-held seats now lean toward Democrats, almost all Trump carried by single digits. One belongs to Rep. David Valadao, R-Calif., the last House Republican seeking reelection who voted to impeach Trump after the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol; California Democrats redrew his district in an attempt to unseat him. And more than half of the nine Republican-held seats rated as leaning Republican are districts Trump won by double digits.
“在2024年选举之后，众议院民主党领袖哈基姆·杰弗里斯最近对记者表示：‘当然，民主党在11月3日有能力积极竞争并赢得的席位，而另一方的许多人原本认为这些席位不会具有竞争力。’”可能限制民主党收益的是缺乏易于对付的对手。除了重新划分选区之外，只有三个由共和党人持有的选区在2024年投票支持哈里斯。
“There certainly are seats that Democrats are positioned to aggressively compete in and win on November 3rd that many people on the other side of the aisle did not think would be competitive” after the 2024 election, House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries told reporters recently. What could limit Democrats’ gains is a shortage of easy opponents. Outside of redistricting, only three Republican-held districts voted for Harris in 2024.
其中一个是奥马哈地区的一个空缺席位，民主党在此处具有良好的竞争优势。另外两个席位分别属于众议员布莱恩·菲茨帕特里克（共和党-宾夕法尼亚州）和迈克·劳勒（共和党-纽约州），他们是持有两党思维的现任议员，是难以对付的对手，并且曾经阻挠过民主党的推进。民主党也可能失去缅因州第二选区，这是特朗普赢得的选区，因为温和派民主党众议员贾里德·戈尔登决定不寻求连任。
One is an open Omaha-area seat that Democrats are well positioned to win. The other two belong to Reps. Brian Fitzpatrick R-Pa., and Mike Lawler R-N.Y., bipartisan-minded incumbents who are tough opponents and have spoiled Democrats’ drives before. Democrats also risk losing Maine’s 2nd District, a Trump-won seat, after centrist Democratic Rep. Jared Golden decided not to seek reelection.
民主党在2024年选举后品牌受损，这仍然是一个负担。但对特朗普的不满是一种强大的力量，而共和党人将自己与他绑得比以往任何时候都更紧。上个月的党代会上，特朗普将他的遗产作为秋季竞选的核心主题，并敦促支持者“装作我在选票上。”在那些由特朗普赢得的将决定众议院命力的选区里，民主党正是在依赖这一点。
Democrats came out of 2024 with a damaged brand, and it remains a liability. But frustration with Trump is a potent force, and Republicans have bound themselves to him more tightly than ever. At last month’s convention, Trump made his legacy a central theme of the fall campaign and urged supporters “to pretend I’m on the ticket.”In the Trump-won districts that will decide the House, that’s exactly what Democrats are counting on.
随着选民做出决定，两党都未能获得公众的高度评价。而且特朗普在美国政治中始终无处不在，无论候选人和决定他们选举命运的人是否喜欢。
As voters make their decisions, neither party has been getting high marks from the public. And Trump remains omnipresent in American politics, whether candidates, and the people deciding their electoral fates, like it or not.
“双方都想把选举全国化，”加利福尼亚州共和党众议员达雷尔·伊萨在国会山表示，他在民主党重新划分他的选区后选择退休而非参选连任，此番言论是在共和党中期党代会之前发表的。“所以实际上不会有选择。民主党已经把一切都围绕特朗普展开，而总统愿意凭借既努力又取得显著成就的记录参选。”
“Both sides want to nationalize the election,” Darrell Issa, a California Republican congressman who chose to retire rather than run for re-election after Democrats redrew his district, said on Capitol Hill before the GOP midterm convention. “So there really isn’t going to be a choice. The Democrats have made it all about Trump, and the president’s willing to run on a record of both trying hard and achieving much.”
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The post Democrats’ ‘blue wave’ hopes vs. MAGA’s ‘red wall’ map MS NOW