穆斯林代表性在美国达到历史里程碑，阿拉伯主导政党在以色列议会赢得创纪录席位加沙战争加速了政治动员，阿拉伯裔美国人研究所主席詹姆斯·佐格比表示。华盛顿分析师乔吉奥·卡菲耶罗称，密歇根州选民拒绝了“特朗普和犹太复国主义极端分子的仇恨、伊斯兰恐惧症信息”。以色列分析师指出，以色列巴勒斯坦人的政治收获面临种族主义和剥夺阿拉伯代表合法性等障碍。
Muslim representation reaches historic milestone in US as Arab-led parties win record seats in Israel’s Knesset Gaza war accelerated political mobilization, says Arab American Institute president James Zogby Voters in Michigan rejected 'hateful, Islamophobic messages of Trump and Zionist extremists,' says Washington-based analyst Giorgio Cafiero Palestinian political gains in Israel face obstacles including racism and efforts to delegitimize Arab representatives, says Israeli analyst From the first Muslim elected to the US Senate to record gains for Arab-led parties in Israel, recent elections have opened new possibilities for communities long marginalized in national politics.
从首位当选美国参议员的穆斯林，到以色列阿拉伯主导政党创纪录的席位收获，近期选举为长期在国家政治中被边缘化的社群开辟了新可能。
In the US, Abdul El-Sayed’s victory in Michigan helped bring the number of Muslim candidates elected to Congress to a record high.
在美国，阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德在密歇根州的胜利，帮助当选国会议员的穆斯林候选人数量达到历史新高。在以色列，阿拉伯主导政党在10月27日的选举中获得足够席位，可能决定谁组建下一届政府。
分析师乔吉奥·卡菲耶罗将美国选举结果描述为对唐纳德·特朗普总统对以色列政策以及美以针对伊朗战争的拒绝；阿拉伯裔美国人研究所创始人兼主席詹姆斯·佐格比则表示，这些收获反映了数十年的政治组织工作，并因加沙战争获得了新动力。
In Israel, Arab-led parties emerged from the Oct. 27 election with enough seats to potentially determine who forms the next government. While analyst Giorgio Cafiero described the US results as a rejection of President Donald Trump’s policies toward Israel and the US-Israeli war against Iran, Arab American Institute founder and president James Zogby said the gains reflected decades of political organizing, given fresh momentum by the Gaza war.
在以色列，政治学家内夫·戈登表示，对战争及其他影响巴勒斯坦人问题的愤怒推高了投票率，但他警告称，种族主义和政治排斥可能限制阿拉伯议员的影响力。
In Israel, political scientist Neve Gordon said anger over the war and other issues affecting Palestinians helped drive increased turnout, although he warned that racism and political exclusion could limit the influence of Arab lawmakers.
分析师指出，选举结果提供了新的政治参与机会，但要将选举收获转化为持久影响力，将取决于结盟、公众压力以及克服阻力。美国：穆斯林代表性达到历史里程碑11月3日的美国中期选举中，民主党赢得国会两院控制权，至少有七名穆斯林候选人赢得席位，其中包括首位当选参议员的埃尔-赛义德。
The results offer new opportunities for political participation, but analysts say turning electoral gains into lasting influence will depend on alliances, public pressure and overcoming resistance. US: Muslim representation reaches historic milestone The Nov. 3 US midterm elections saw Democrats win control of both chambers of Congress, while at least seven Muslim candidates secured seats, including El-Sayed, the first Muslim elected to the Senate.
中东研究所高级研究员杰森·H·坎贝尔表示，穆斯林美国人仍然是一个相对较小的全国性投票群体，但他们的政治参与度已大幅提高。
Jason H. Campbell, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, said Muslim Americans remain a relatively small national voting bloc, but their political participation has increased considerably.
根据社会政策与理解研究所的数据，符合资格的穆斯林美国人的选民登记率从2016年的60%上升至2025年的85%。
Voter registration among eligible Muslim Americans rose from 60% in 2016 to 85% in 2025, according to the Institute for Social Policy and Understanding.
坎贝尔对阿纳多卢通讯社说：“在穆斯林美国人占人口比例较高的地方（如密歇根州），他们拥有更大的政治影响力，也已经看到了政治参与度提高带来的好处。”
"Where Muslim Americans make up higher proportions of the population (like Michigan) they have more political influence and have seen the benefits of increased political participation," Campbell told Anadolu.
阿拉伯美国人研究所的佐格比表示，选举结果反映的是阿拉伯美国人几十年来政治参与度不断增长，而非仅仅由加沙战争驱动的突然转变。
Zogby of the Arab American Institute, said the election results reflected decades of growing political participation among Arab Americans, rather than a sudden shift driven solely by the Gaza war.
他说：“过去四十年来，阿拉伯美国人社区在政治上不断成长和成熟。我们在全国范围内的选民登记和投票率方面，以及在候选人参选和赢得民选职位方面，一直在取得进展。”
"The Arab American community has been growing and maturing politically for the past four decades. We’ve been making progress all across the country in voter registration and turnout, and in candidates running and winning elective office," he said.
佐格比补充说：“加沙的种族灭绝战争所做的是为我们的成长提供了更大的动力和目标。”他还指出，强有力的候选人和竞选组织者在将该社区的立场推到前沿方面发挥了作用。
"What the genocidal war in Gaza did was give greater impetus and purpose to our growth," Zogby added, pointing also to the role of strong candidates and campaign organizers in bringing the community's positions to the forefront.
海湾国家分析公司首席执行官卡菲耶罗将这一结果描述为对伊斯兰恐惧症式竞选活动的拒绝。
Cafiero, CEO of Gulf State Analytics, described the result as a rejection of Islamophobic campaigning.
他说：“很明显，密歇根州的选民拒绝了特朗普和美国犹太复国主义极端分子充满仇恨和伊斯兰恐惧症的信息，选择投票给阿卜杜勒·赛义德，这可能成为美国政治的一个重大转折点。”
"It is clear that voters in Michigan rejected the hateful and Islamophobic messages of Trump and Zionist extremists in America and chose to vote for Abdul El-Sayed, representing what could be a major turning point in American politics," he said.
伊朗战争、对以色列的支持成为负担 尽管穆斯林选民和议员仍占少数，但对伊朗战争的反对远远超出了这些群体。
Iran war, support for Israeli become liabilities Although Muslim voters and lawmakers remain a minority, opposition to the war against Iran extended well beyond those communities.
卡菲耶罗将民主党的胜利与冲突的经济后果联系起来，称其对全球经济的影响伤害了美国家庭和企业。
Cafiero linked the Democratic victories to the conflict’s economic consequences, saying its effects on the global economy had hurt American families and businesses.
他说：“民主党候选人在堪萨斯等坚定共和党州取得的成功，凸显了民众对特朗普政府极度亲以色列政策的广泛抵制，这些政策让美国卷入了一场鲁莽的选择性战争。”
"The success of Democratic candidates in solidly Republican states such as Kansas underscores a widespread rejection of the Trump administration’s wildly pro-Israel policies that brought America into a reckless war of choice," he said.
坎贝尔还提到了能源成本上涨和更广泛的经济压力，以及对特朗普政府移民执法政策的不满。
Campbell also cited rising energy costs and broader economic pressures, alongside dissatisfaction with the Trump administration’s immigration enforcement policies.
投票后，政府本身也承认了这场战争的政治代价，特朗普和副总统JD·万斯都将共和党的失利部分归咎于这场战争。
The war’s political cost drew acknowledgment from the administration itself after the vote, with both Trump and Vice President JD Vance blaming the war for contributing to Republican losses.
卡菲耶罗还将此次选举描述为美国以色列公共事务委员会（AIPAC）的一次挫折，认为该委员会针对进步派候选人的支出未能取得预期效果。
Cafiero also described the election as a setback for the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), arguing that its spending against progressive candidates had failed to secure the intended results.
他说：“这次选举对AIPAC是一个巨大打击，该委员会在候选人身上投入了大量资金，而这些候选人遭到了美国选民的拒绝。”
"This election marks a huge blow to AIPAC, which invested massive amounts of money in candidates whom the US voters rejected,” he said.
据昆西研究所智库出版物《负责任治国》报道，AIPAC通过其“联合民主项目”超级政治行动委员会和其他政治行动委员会支出了8410万美元。其中，5530万美元流向了其青睐候选人落败的竞选。
AIPAC spent $84.1 million through its United Democracy Project super PAC and other political action committees, according to Responsible Statecraft, a publication of the Quincy Institute thinktank. Of that, $55.3 million went to races in which its preferred candidate lost.
卡菲耶罗说：“美国选民明确拒绝了美以对伊朗的战争以及华盛顿对特拉维夫的无条件支持。”
"American voters clearly rejected the US-Israeli war on Iran and Washington’s unconditional support for Tel Aviv," Cafiero said.
将选举成功转化为政策影响力：穆斯林议员的影响力现在将取决于与其他民主党人建立联盟，并为其立法优先事项争取支持。
Turning electoral success into policy influence Muslim lawmakers’ influence will now depend on building alliances with other Democrats and securing support for their legislative priorities.
当新一届国会于1月就职时，民主党对两院的控制将为加强对特朗普政府的监督创造机会，包括其支出决策和对以色列的军事援助。
When the new Congress takes office in January, Democratic control of both chambers will create opportunities for greater oversight of the Trump administration, including its spending decisions and military assistance to Israel.
然而，选举结果并不保证外交政策发生根本性转变。国会仍因以色列问题而分裂，而总统在外交和军事决策上仍拥有相当大的权力。佐格比认为，阿拉伯裔和穆斯林美国议员未必需要逐一说服同僚，因为公众舆论的变化已经在迫使政客作出回应。
The results do not guarantee a fundamental change in foreign policy, however. Congress remains divided over Israel, while the president retains considerable authority over diplomacy and military decisions. Zogby argued that Arab and Muslim American lawmakers would not necessarily have to persuade their colleagues individually, as changing public opinion was already putting pressure on politicians to respond.
他说：“过去几年公众舆论发生了如此显著的变化，我们可谓顺风而行。所以与其说是我们将产生影响，不如说是政客们必须作出回应，因为他们的选民在要求改变。”
"Public opinion has changed so significantly in the past few years that we have the wind at our backs. So it’s not so much that we will have impact, it’s that politicians need to respond because their constituents are demanding change," he said.
他还表示，支持改变美国对以色列和巴勒斯坦政策的力量如今已不限于阿拉伯裔和穆斯林美国人。
He added that support for changing US policy toward Israel and Palestine now extends beyond Arab and Muslim Americans.
他说：“民主党人会回应我们和这些问题，因为他们来自各种背景的大多数支持者都在呼吁改变。我们不再孤军奋战。”
"Democrats will respond to us and these issues because the majority of their supporters from all backgrounds are calling for change. We aren’t alone anymore," he said.
卡菲耶罗表示，选民还需要在未来几年内让新当选的民主党人承担责任。
Cafiero said voters will also need to hold the newly elected Democrats accountable over the coming years.
他说：“现在，责任落在投票选出这些民主党人的美国选民身上，他们需要施压这些议员去落实其竞选时承诺的议程。”以色列：阿拉伯政党成为潜在的造王者在以色列，阿拉伯人领导的政党赢得了迄今为止最强的合计议会席位。联合名单党赢得11席，联合阿拉伯名单党（又称拉阿姆党）获得8席，使这两个阿拉伯人领导的政党合计获得19席。
“Now the onus is on the American voters who elected these Democrats to pressure them into implementing the agendas they campaigned on,” he said. Israel: Arab parties emerge as potential kingmakers In Israel, Arab-led parties secured their strongest combined parliamentary representation to date. The Joint List won 11 seats and the United Arab List, also known as Ra’am, secured eight, giving the two Arab-led parties a combined total of 19.
总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡的阵营赢得53席，而由加迪·艾森科特领导的反对派阵营获得48席。双方均未达到组阁所需的61席多数。
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc won 53 seats, while the opposition bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot secured 48. Neither reached the 61 needed for a parliamentary majority.
这一结果使阿拉伯议员在组建新政府的努力中可能具有决定性作用，尽管他们的参与在政治上仍存争议。
The outcome has made Arab lawmakers potentially decisive in efforts to form a new government, although their participation remains politically contentious.
戈登表示，这些斩获主要源于对加沙战争的愤怒，以及影响巴勒斯坦人的其他问题。
Gordon said the gains were driven primarily by anger over the war in Gaza, alongside other issues affecting Palestinians.
戈登表示：“巴勒斯坦主导的政党取得的增长，主要归因于加沙的种族灭绝，以及巴勒斯坦人在监狱中遭受的广泛酷刑和性暴力、约旦河西岸的定居者恐怖主义，以及以色列境内巴勒斯坦社区犯罪问题缺乏干预。”
"The gains among Palestinian-led political parties are primarily due to the genocide in Gaza, alongside the widespread torture and sexual violence against Palestinians in prisons, the settler terrorism in the West Bank and the lack of intervention against crime within the Palestinian communities in Israel," Gordon said.
他还指出了极右翼部长在动员巴勒斯坦选民方面发挥的作用，但警告称，结果仍未达到比例代表制的标准。
He also pointed to the role of far-right ministers in mobilizing Palestinian voters, but cautioned that the results still fell short of proportional representation.
他说：“可以说，本-格维尔和斯莫特里奇要对大规模投票率负责——但我们仍需记住，19名议会议员并非24名，后者才是巴勒斯坦人按其在社会中所占比例应得的席位数。”
"One could say that Ben Gvir and Smotritch are responsible for the massive turnout – but we still need to keep in mind that 19 Knesset members is not 24, which is what the Palestinians should receive based on their percentage in society," he said.
伦敦国王学院教学研究员阿龙·布雷格曼认为，将约占以色列人口21%的阿拉伯公民排除在国家政治决策之外，不可能无限期持续下去。
Ahron Bregman, a teaching fellow at King's College, London, argued that excluding Arab citizens, who account for around 21% of Israel's population, from national political decision-making could not continue indefinitely.
他说：“以色列人，许多自由派也一样，乐于在医院接受阿拉伯医生和护士的治疗，乐于从阿拉伯人手中购买药品，其中许多人拥有药房，还去阿拉伯村庄吃美味的鹰嘴豆泥，但他们却不愿让阿拉伯人成为以色列政府的一部分。” 以色列：种族主义和政治壁垒威胁持久影响力 伦敦玛丽女王大学法学院教授戈登表示，选举结果可能转化为更大的政治影响力，但他警告称，这将取决于联合政府谈判的进展，以及旨在剥夺巴勒斯坦代表合法性的努力是否得逞。
"The Israelis, many liberals too, are happy to be treated by Arab doctors and nurses in hospitals, happy to buy medications from Arabs, many of whom own pharmacies, and visit Arab villages to eat great Hummus, but they are reluctant to have Arabs as part of an Israeli government." Israel: Racism and political barriers threaten lasting influence Gordon, professor in the school of law at Queen Mary University of London, said the election results could translate into greater political influence, but warned that this would depend on how the coalition negotiations develop and whether efforts to delegitimize Palestinian representatives succeed.
他说：“可能会，但不一定。在秘密机构的协助下，内塔尼亚胡总理已发起一场针对以色列巴勒斯坦公民及其代表的大规模去合法化运动。”
"It could, but does not have to. Prime Minister Netanyahu, with the help of the secret services, has launched a major delegitimization campaign against the Palestinian citizens of Israel and their representatives," he said.
戈登表示，一种可能的结果是，巴勒斯坦政党从联盟外部支持由反对党领导的少数派政府。作为回报，他们可以争取增加对学校、基础设施和警务的资金投入。
One possible outcome, Gordon said, would be for Palestinian parties to support a minority government led by the opposition from outside the coalition. In return, they could seek increased funding for schools, infrastructure and policing.
不过，他表示怀疑这种安排能否让阿拉伯政党直接影响加沙政策或以色列外交政策。
However, he said he was doubtful that such an arrangement would give Arab parties direct influence over Gaza policy or Israel's foreign policy.
谈判现已进入正式阶段。总统伊萨克·赫尔佐格周三开始与各党派代表进行磋商，统一阿拉伯名单（Ra’am）宣布将推荐艾森科特。
The negotiations are now moving into a formal stage. President Isaac Herzog began consultations with party representatives Wednesday, and Ra’am announced it would recommend Eisenkot.
然而，戈登表示，种族主义仍然是阿拉伯政党加入执政联盟的主要障碍，包括反对派阵营内部的政党也是如此。
Gordon, however, said racism remained the main obstacle to Arab parties joining governing coalitions, including among parties in the opposition bloc.
他说：“主要障碍是种族主义。第二个障碍是种族主义，第三个也是——种族主义。”
"The main obstacle is racism. The second obstacle is racism and so is third – racism," he said.
他说，反对派阵营仍可能出于务实的政治原因与巴勒斯坦领导的政党合作，但警告说，克服偏见和歧视需要数年时间。
He said the opposition bloc could still cooperate with Palestinian-led parties for pragmatic political reasons, but warned that prejudice and discrimination would take years to overcome.