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Mother Jones

美国终于有足够票数废除选举人团America Finally Has the Votes to End the Electoral College

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阿尔·戈尔与希拉里·克林顿在2016年佛罗里达州的一场集会上。Solar/Ace Pictures/ZumaAl Gore and Hillary Clinton at a 2016 Florida rally. Solar/Ace Pictures/Zuma

周二的波浪选举让民主党掌控了国会。但对美国政治和民主来说,最具震撼效应的结果可能来自那些民主党刚刚实现“三权合一”控制的摇摆州——即同时赢得两院和州长官邸:从明年1月起,民主党立法者将拥有足够票数,通过普选方式选出下一任总统。

Tuesday’s wave election swept Democrats into power in Congress. But the most seismic result for American politics and democracy may come out of the battleground states where Democrats just won trifecta control by taking both state houses and the governor’s mansion: Come January, Democratic legislators will have the votes to elect the next president by the popular vote.

各州立法者可以通过制定所谓的“全国普选州际协定”来绕过选举人团制度。在现行制度下,每个州拥有固定数量的选举人,候选人若赢得足够多的州,累计获得至少270张选举人票,即可当选总统。这一制度允许普选票的胜者落选,正如阿尔·戈尔在2000年所遭遇的,希拉里·克林顿在2016年也再次落选。但“全国普选州际协定”将绕过选举人团,每个加入该协定的州都将把其选举人票投给全国普选的胜者。该协定只有在代表选举人票多数的州加入后才会生效,从而确保全国普选的胜者成为总统。

State lawmakers could circumvent the Electoral College by enacting what’s known as National Popular Vote Interstate Compact Under the current system, each state gets a set number of electors, and the candidate who wins enough states to accumulate at least 270 electoral votes becomes president. This system allows the winner of the popular vote to lose, as Al Gore did in 2000 and Hillary Clinton again in 2016. But the NPVIC would bypass the Electoral College, with each state that enacts the compact awarding its electors to the winner of the national popular vote. The compact would only take effect once states representing a majority of electoral votes sign on, ensuring that the winner of the national popular vote becomes president.

“每个选民都应具有政治相关性。在现行制度下,他们并非如此。”四月,弗吉尼亚成为第18个加入该协定的州,使该提案下承诺的选举人票总数达到222张。周二,民主党在密歇根州、威斯康星州、宾夕法尼亚州、亚利桑那州和内华达州实现了州政府的“三权合一”控制。这相当于61张选举人票。再加上阿拉斯加州,那里的选票仍在陆续计票中,总数达到64张。

“Every voter should be politically relevant. Under the current system, they are not.”In April, Virginia became the 18th state to join the compact, bringing the total number of electoral votes pledged under the proposal to 222. On Tuesday, Democrats took trifecta control of state governments in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Nevada. That’s 61 electoral votes. Add in Alaska, where late-arriving votes are still being counted, and that’s 64.

有了弗吉尼亚州的支持,距离该协定达到270张选举人票并生效,还差48张。新出现的计算意味着,下一任总统有很大机会将根据全国普选票产生。

With Virginia on board, only 48 more votes are needed for the compact to reach 270 votes and take effect. The emerging math means there is a real chance that the next president is selected based on the national popular vote.

这将代表美国政治的一次根本性转变。目前的选举人团制度违背了一人一票的基本原则。候选人不再被迫争取每一张选票,在非竞争州,数百万张总统选票在赢者通吃制度下实际上被浪费了。政客和捐款人将数十亿美元投入少数几个摇摆州,而绝大多数国家的选票和关切被忽视。“在现行制度下,五分之四的美国选民被边缘化,”共和党策略师帕特里克·罗森斯蒂尔说,他正在倡导该协议。

That would represent a sea change in American politics. The current Electoral College system violates the basic principle of one person, one vote. Instead of candidates being forced to campaign for every vote, millions of presidential votes in uncompetitive states are effectively wasted in a winner-take-all system. Politicians and donors pour billions of dollars into a handful of battlegrounds, while the votes—and concerns—of most of the country are ignored. “Under the current system, four out of five American voters are on the sidelines,” says Patrick Rosenstiel, a Republican strategist who is advocating for the compact.

“每个选民都应该具有政治相关性。在现行制度下,他们并非如此。”选举人团是建国时期制定者与小州和蓄奴州之间权力分享妥协的一部分。在整个历史中,它一直是白人至上主义的堡垒。因为一个州的选举人团票数基于其国会代表席位,蓄奴州从五分之三妥协中获益,拥有不成比例的影响力。重建时期后,南方白人剥夺了黑人的选举权,同时利用其州内黑人居民所分配的选举人票,变得更加政治强大。

“Every voter should be politically relevant. Under the current system, they are not.”The Electoral College was part of the Framers’ power-sharing concession with small states and slave states at the nation’s founding. Throughout our history, it has been a bulwark of white supremacy Because a state’s Electoral College votes are based on their congressional representation, slave states benefited from the three-fifths compromise with outsized clout. After Reconstruction, Southern whites disenfranchised Black people, while using the electoral votes allotted to their states’ Black residents to become even more politically powerful.

这扭曲了我们的政治,并在数十年间确立了白人至上主义政策。最高法院今年对1965年《投票权法案》的削弱,威胁着将国家带回类似局面:白人多数通过将黑人选民划分选区排除在权力之外,来提升自身影响力。选举人团制度不仅是一个种族主义制度,也是我们民主制度中一个明显的阿喀琉斯之踵。2000年,最高法院决定中止佛罗里达州单一州的重新计票,这意味着普选票的获胜者落败。

This warped our politics and enshrined white supremacist policies for decades. The Supreme Court’s gutting of the 1965 Voting Rights Act this year threatens to return the country to a similar situation: a white majority running up their influence on the backs of Black people they have gerrymandered out of power The Electoral College system is not just a racist institution, it is also a glaring achilles heal for our democracy. In 2000, the Supreme Court’s decision to halt a recount in a single state—Florida—meant the winner of the popular vote lost.

那段历史表明,当前流程可以通过干涉、剥夺选举权或法律篡改,仅在一个州就被操纵,从而推翻民意。

That history shows how the current process can be manipulated in just one state by interference, disenfranchisement, or legal tampering to upend the will of the people.

2016年,俄国瞄准关键州选民,表明即使是外国对手也了解当前制度的漏洞。2020年,乔·拜登以700万张选票的优势赢得普选,但唐纳德·特朗普在选举人团中仅以总计4.4万张选票之差输掉三个最接近的州,为其窃取选举的计划打开了大门。此外,如果总统由简单多数票选出,特朗普2021年1月6日派遣暴徒阻止选举人票认证的企图永远不会发生。

In 2016, Russia targeted voters in key states, demonstrating that even foreign adversaries understand our current system’s vulnerabilities. In 2020, Joe Biden won the popular vote by 7 million votes, but Donald Trump lost the three closest states in the Electoral College by just 44,000 total votes opening the door his election-stealing scheme. Moreover, Trump’s attempt to hold onto power on January 6, 2021 by sending a violent mob to stop the certification of the electoral votes could never have happened if the president were chosen by a simple majority.

虽然民主党一直是全国普选协定的主要推动者,但共和党人可能得出结论,他们也将从改变中受益。周二,民主党在德克萨斯州全州选举中大获全胜,粉碎了共和党的政治中心。这次胜利表明,在选举浪潮中,德克萨斯州可能变成蓝州,随之而来的是该州第二大州的40张选举人票。佐治亚州、北卡罗来纳州、俄亥俄州和爱荷华州也出现了民主党全胜。

While Democrats have been the chief drivers of the national vote compact, Republicans might conclude they would also benefit from a change. On Tuesday, Democrats swept statewide races in Texas, shattering the political epicenter of the Republican Party. The win showed that in a wave, Texas can go blue, and with it, the second-largest state’s 40 electoral votes. Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio, and Iowa also saw Democratic sweeps.

这些结果可能促使一些共和党人支持该协定,理由是,他们实际上计算加利福尼亚州和纽约州等地数百万张共和党选票,可能比在艰难年份希望摇摆州支持他们更有运气。

These results may induce some Republicans to support the compact, reasoning that they might have more luck by actually counting millions of Republican votes in California and New York, for example, than by hoping swing states go their way in tough years.

罗森斯蒂尔在中期选举次日表示,“环境已具备,2028年总统选举可以由全国普选来进行。”本月的选举是变革的授权,而大部分要求的变革涉及政治制度本身。通过全国普选选举总统可能重塑美国政治,赋予选民权力,并保护选举免受干扰。而且,几十年来,这首次真正成为可能。

As Rosenstiel said the day after the midterms, “the environment is right for the 2028 presidential election to be run by national popular vote.”This month’s elections are a mandate for change, and much of the change demanded is to our political system itself. Electing the president by a national popular vote could reshape American politics, empower voters, and protect our elections from interference. And for the first time in decades, it is actually possible.

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