数据：Axios研究；地图：Andrew Pantazi/Axios 民主党有望控制大多数州立法机构，结束共和党长达16年对美国州议会的主导地位。
Data: Axios research; Map: Andrew Pantazi/Axios Democrats are on track to take control of a majority of legislative chambers, ending 16 years of Republican dominance over America's statehouses.
- 如果目前的领先优势保持不变，75%的美国人将生活在由民主党州长执政的州，53%将生活在民主党实现“三权合一”（trifectas）的州。
• If current leads hold, 75% of Americans will live in a state with a Democratic governor, and 53% will live in Democratic trifectas. Why it matters:
为何重要：州议会是美国联邦制的前沿阵地，周二的胜利将大幅扩大民主党的权力，使其能够提高最低工资、保护堕胎权，并在2028年大选前为大多数美国人制定投票规则。
Statehouses are the front line of American federalism, and Tuesday's gains dramatically expand Democrats' power to increase minimum wages, protect abortion access, and set voting rules ahead of 2028 for most Americans.
新闻看点：据美联社周三美国东部时间下午6点的统计，民主党有望翻转12个立法机构，打破5个共和党“三权合一”州的局面，粉碎11个共和党超级多数席位，并建立12个属于自己的超级多数席位。
Driving the news: party is set to flip 12 legislative chambers, dismantle five Republican state trifectas, shatter 11 GOP supermajorities and build 12 of its own, according to AP returns as of 6pm ET on Wednesday.
- 如果领先优势保持，民主党将在7个2024年总统选战摇摆州中的5个——亚利桑那州、密歇根州、内华达州、宾夕法尼亚州和威斯康星州——同时控制州长办公室和两院议会。
• If leads hold, Democrats will control the governor's office and both chambers in five of the seven 2024 presidential battlegrounds: Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
- 他们还在第6个摇摆州（佐治亚州）打破了共和党一党独大的局面，并在第7个摇摆州（北卡罗来纳州）翻转了众议院控制权。
• They have also broken Republican one-party rule in the sixth (Georgia) and flipped the House in the seventh (North Carolina).
民主党翻转了 5个共和党把持的州长职位（佐治亚州、爱荷华州、内华达州、俄亥俄州和得克萨斯州），并在阿拉斯加州领先。
Democrats flipped five GOP-held governorships (Georgia, Iowa, Nevada, Ohio and Texas) and lead in Alaska.
- 共和党尽管将亚利桑那州、密歇根州、俄勒冈州和威斯康星州作为目标，但一个州长职位也未翻转。堪萨斯州方面，民主党人辛迪·霍尔舍周三晚间领先约半个百分点，结果尚未揭晓。
• Republicans haven't flipped any, despite targeting Arizona, Michigan, Oregon and Wisconsin. Kansas, where Democrat Cindy Holscher was leading by about half a point Wednesday evening, is uncalled.
大局观：自2010年“茶党”浪潮以来，共和党利用对州议会的掌控重塑美国生活：禁止堕胎、放宽枪支法律、限制集体谈判、扩大私立学校券计划。
The big picture: Ever since the 2010 Tea Party wave, Republicans have used their grip on statehouses to reshape American life: banning abortion, loosening gun laws, restricting collective bargaining and expanding private-school vouchers.
- 他们绘制选区地图，使自己即便在民主党全州得票更多的年份也能保持执政地位。
• They drew maps that kept them in power even in years Democrats won more votes statewide.
- 周二民主党的胜利打破了这道防火墙。
• Tuesday's Democratic gains broke that firewall.
数字解读：共和党在选举日拥有 23 个“三权合一”（控制州长办公室和议会两院），民主党为 16 个。若目前领先优势保持，民主党将增至 22 个，共和党降至 18 个。
By the numbers: Republicans entered Election Day with 23 trifectas (control of the governor's office and both chambers) to Democrats' 16. If leads hold, Democrats will have 22 and Republicans 18.
- 24% 的美国人将生活在共和党“三权合一”的州，低于此前的 42%。
• 24% of Americans will live under a GOP trifecta, down from 42%.
- 民主党将控制 99 个议院中的 51 个，较此前的 39 个增加；共和党将控制 46 个，较此前的 57 个减少。（明尼苏达州众议院此前势均力敌，阿拉斯加州参众两院由两党联盟控制。）
• Democrats will control 51 of 99 chambers, up from 39. Republicans will control 46, down from 57. (Minnesota's House was tied, and Alaska's Senate and House have been controlled by a bipartisan coalition.)
六州合计仅 5000 票差距若这六个州的得票数合计偏移 5000 票，民主党本将再控制六个立法议院。
A combined 5,000-vote swing across six states would have given Democrats control of six more legislative chambers.
聚焦细节：民主党在佛蒙特州参众两院及新罕布什尔州众议院赢得足以推翻共和党州长否决的三分之二多数，在新罕布什尔州参议院则仅差一席。
Zoom in: Democrats won veto-proof majorities against Republican governors in both Vermont chambers and the New Hampshire House, and sit one seat short in the New Hampshire Senate.
- 共和党在八个议院失去三分之二多数，其中包括爱荷华州和堪萨斯州众议院，这两个州的民主党州长否决权现在将真正生效。堪萨斯州能否生效取决于霍尔舍能否获胜。
• Republicans lost two-thirds majorities in eight chambers, including the Iowa and Kansas Houses, where Democratic governors' vetoes would now stick. In Kansas, that depends on Holscher winning.
- 民主党在另外九个议院建立起超级多数，包括亚利桑那州参议院，以及民主党已执政的州。
• Democrats built supermajorities in nine more chambers, including Arizona's Senate and in states they already govern.
民主党可能重塑的政策领域
Policies Democrats could reshape
薪资待遇：宾夕法尼亚州和威斯康星州仍沿用联邦最低时薪 7.25 美元。
Paychecks: Pennsylvania and Wisconsin still use the $7.25 federal minimum wage.
- 宾夕法尼亚州众议院此前曾通过加薪法案，但共和党控制的参议院未予受理。
• Pennsylvania's House has passed increases before, and the GOP Senate didn't take them up.
- 威斯康星州民主党可废除《第 10 号法案》剩余条款，该法案于 2011 年剥夺了大多数公职人员的集体谈判权。一名法官于 2024 年判决其大部分条款无效，该裁决正处于上诉中。
• Wisconsin Democrats can repeal what's left of Act 10, the 2011 law that stripped most public workers of collective bargaining. A judge struck down most of it in 2024, and that ruling is on appeal.
- 内华达州民主党可重启一项带薪休假法案，该法案此前被共和党州长否决。
• Nevada Democrats can revive a paid leave bill the Republican governor vetoed. Abortion:
堕胎：佐治亚州和得克萨斯州新当选的民主党总检察长将决定在法庭上如何为本州堕胎禁令辩护，以及得克萨斯州是否继续追究从“盾牌法”州邮寄药丸的医生责任。
New Democratic attorneys general in Georgia Texas will decide how hard to defend their states' abortion bans in court and whether Texas keeps pursuing doctors who mail pills from shield-law states.
- 在爱荷华州、俄亥俄州，以及堪萨斯州（若霍尔舍获胜），民主党州长可否决新的限制措施。
• In Iowa and Ohio, and in Kansas if Holscher wins, Democratic governors can veto new restrictions. Schools:
学校：亚利桑那州民主党人有望限制该州的通用学券计划，州长凯蒂·霍布斯曾试图遏制该计划但未能成功。
Arizona Democrats can cap the state's universal voucher program which Gov. Katie Hobbs has tried and failed to rein in.
- 得克萨斯州新推出的10亿美元学券计划可能得以保留，因为共和党守住了州参议院，但如今民主党人将在资金如何拨付的问题上拥有发言权。
• Texas' new $1 billion voucher program might survive because the GOP held the state Senate, but now Democrats will have a say in how it's funded. Elections:
选举：宾夕法尼亚州和威斯康星州禁止官员在选举日之前处理邮寄选票。这一规定是这两个州的计票可能拖延数日的重要原因。
Pennsylvania and Wisconsin bar officials from processing mail ballots before Election Day. That rule is a big reason both states' counts can drag on for days.
- 两州的民主党三权独揽局面可以在2028年之前改变这一规定。
• Democratic trifectas in both states can change it before 2028.
- 佐治亚州、俄亥俄州和印第安纳州新上任的民主党州务卿将负责这些州的总统选举。
• New Democratic secretaries of state in Georgia, Ohio and Indiana will run those states' presidential elections.
不过：在得克萨斯州、佐治亚州、俄亥俄州、艾奥瓦州和堪萨斯州，分裂政府意味着否决多于新法律。
Yes, but: In Texas, Georgia, Ohio, Iowa and Kansas, divided government means more vetoes than new laws.
- 几个新的多数优势极为微弱。宾夕法尼亚州参议院为26比24，威斯康星州参议院为18比15。
• Several new majorities are razor-thin. Pennsylvania's Senate is 26-24 and Wisconsin's is 18-15.
- 新上任的民主党州长还继承了去年共和党巨额法案中的医疗补助和补充营养援助计划削减，而填补这些缺口将出自州预算。
• New Democratic governors also inherit the Medicaid and SNAP cuts in last year's GOP megabill, and backfilling them would come out of state budgets.
归根结底：共和党人花了16年时间建立起州议会的多数优势。民主党人一夜之间将其抹去，如今有两年时间向选民展示他们将如何利用这一优势。
The bottom line: Republicans spent 16 years building a statehouse majority. Democrats erased it in one night, and now have two years to show voters what they'll do with it.