自周二以来，新闻标题自然聚焦于民主党控制国会，但下选票的结果同样广泛，从长远来看可能影响更大。美国许多最大的州即将急剧左转。
The headlines since Tuesday have naturally focused on Democratic control of Congress, but the results down ballot are as sweeping and may be more consequential in the long run. Many of America’s largest states are about to make a sharp left turn.
民主党翻转了至少12个立法机构和5个州长席位（内华达州、得克萨斯州、佐治亚州、爱荷华州、俄亥俄州）。民主党似乎也有望翻转阿拉斯加州议会，这将使民主党控制的州议会数量达到30个，为1993年以来最多。
Democrats flipped at least 12 legislative chambers and five governorships (Nevada, Texas, Georgia, Iowa, Ohio). Democrats also look likely to flip the Alaska statehouse, which would give Democrats control of 30, the most since 1993.
民主党有望在22个州同时控制州长和立法机构，高于此前的16个。这将是民主党自20世纪80年代初以来掌握最多的“三重控制”州。共和党可能将拥有18个三重控制州，通常是较小的州，在失去5个之后。共和党多年来主导的得克萨斯州、佐治亚州、爱荷华州和俄亥俄州现在将处于分裂政府状态。共和党在得克萨斯州和佐治亚州同时失去了州长职位和众议院控制权。
Democrats are poised to control the governorships and legislatures in 22 states, up from 16. That will be the most governing “trifectas” Democrats have held since the early 1980s. Republicans will likely have 18 trifectas, typically in smaller states, after losing five. States that Republicans have dominated for years like Texas, Georgia, Iowa and Ohio will now be under divided government. Republicans lost both governorships and the house in Texas and Georgia.
他们在新罕布什尔州失去了两个立法机构的控制权，共和党籍州长凯利·阿约特勉强保住了职位。周二的投票将使民主党完全控制密歇根州、明尼苏达州、宾夕法尼亚州、威斯康星州、亚利桑那州和内华达州。
They lost both legislative chambers in New Hampshire, and GOP Gov. Kelly Ayotte barely hung on. Tuesday’s vote will give Democrats complete control over Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona and Nevada.
除明尼苏达州和内华达州外，这些都是共和党在2010年赢得控制权的州。他们利用这项权力在税收、教育、工会权力等方面推行了重大改革。所有这些都将成为民主党废除的目标。
With the exception of Minnesota and Nevada, these are all states that Republicans won control of in 2010. And they have used that power to enact major reforms on taxes, education, union power and more. All of these will be Democratic targets for repeal.
内华达州共和党州长乔·隆巴多的落败意味着该州的“工作权利法”岌岌可危。民主党接管威斯康星州立法机构将把政府工会控制权交还给麦迪逊。向《第10号法案》集体谈判改革和“工作权利法”说再见吧。明尼苏达州是左派的中西部典范。威斯康星州7.65%的最高所得税率已经是全美第10高。
Nevada Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo’s defeat means the state’s right-to-work law is in jeopardy. Democrats’ takeover of the Wisconsin Legislature will return government union control to Madison. Say sayonara to the Act 10 collective-bargaining reform and right-to-work law. Minnesota is the left’s Midwest model. Wisconsin’s top 7.65% income tax rate is already the 10th highest in the U.S. and highest in the Midwest, save for Minnesota (10.85%), and it is about to go up.
在中西部各州中，其税率仅次于明尼苏达州（10.85%）位居第二，且即将上调。威斯康星州民主党几乎必定会在“奥巴马医改”框架下扩大医疗补助覆盖范围，佐治亚州和得克萨斯州新当选的民主党州长也将试图与剩余的共和党立法者达成协议，推动同样的举措。在亚利桑那州，全民教育储蓄账户极有可能成为民主党新近掌控行政、立法和司法“三权合一”局面下的牺牲品。
Wisconsin Democrats are all but certain to expand Medicaid under ObamaCare, and the new Democratic Governors of Georgia and Texas will also try to cut a deal with the remaining GOP legislators to do the same. Universal education savings accounts will likely be a casualty of the new Democratic trifecta in Arizona.
该州的“工作权利法”以及统一 2.5% 的个人所得税率也面临风险。萨克拉门托的民主党人定会欣喜若狂，因为内华达州和亚利桑那州即将由民主党执政——经济竞争对手变少了。
Its right-to-work law and flat 2.5% income tax are also at risk. Democrats in Sacramento must be ecstatic that Democrats will soon run Nevada and Arizona—less economic competition.
共和党的溃败将缩减亲增长政策的“实验室”，例如爱荷华州、佐治亚州、俄亥俄州和得克萨斯州的减税与扩大学校选择权举措。佐治亚州和得克萨斯州部分共和党立法者曾反对教育储蓄账户，他们可能会与新任民主党州长合作废除这些账户。除公共部门工会外，周二选举的最大赢家是原告律师界。如果共和党人与新任民主党州长联手，对企业发起“诉讼狂欢季”，也不足为奇。
The GOP collapse will shrink laboratories of pro-growth policy, such as the tax cuts and school choice expansions in Iowa, Georgia, Ohio and Texas. Some GOP legislators in Georgia and Texas opposed education savings accounts, and they might work with Democratic Governors to roll them back. Other than public unions, the biggest winner on Tuesday was the plaintiff bar. Don’t be surprised if Republicans work with new Democratic Governors to declare open lawsuit season on business.
共和党在州法院选举中也失利。其在得克萨斯州最高法院的 9 比 0 绝对优势将缩减至 5 比 4。民主党似乎在俄亥俄州最高法院赢得一个席位，将共和党优势缩小至 5 比 2。这意味着，当民主党州长试图以行政命令强推左翼议程时，将面临更少的司法制约。
Republicans also lost state court races. Their 9-0 majority in the Texas Supreme Court will shrink to 5-4. Democrats appear to have gained a seat on Ohio’s high court, reducing its GOP majority to 5-2. This means there will be less of a judicial check on Democratic Governors who try to impose their left-wing agendas by executive fiat.
哦，别排除民主党夺得控制权的州在十年中期重新划分选区的可能。这可能为民主党在 2028 年国会和州议会选举中取得更大胜利铺平道路。回顾一下，民主党曾抱怨 2010 年中期选举后的选区划分巩固了共和党在州议会的权力。除非共和党在 2028 年或 2030 年扭转今年的部分州级败局，否则在下一次人口普查后，民主党将有望锁定其在州一级的统治地位长达十年。
*今年共和党难得的亮点是佛罗里达州，这是全美人口前十大州中唯一仍由共和党掌管政府的州。
Oh, and don’t rule out mid-decade redistricting in states where Democrats have seized control. This could set up Democrats for bigger gains in Congress and statehouses in 2028. Recall how Democrats complained that gerrymanders after the 2010 midterms entrenched GOP power in statehouses. Unless the GOP reverses some of this year’s state losses in 2028 or 2030, Democrats will be poised after the next census to lock in their state dominance for a decade.*A rare bright spot for the GOP this year was Florida, which is the only one of the 10 largest states where Republicans still run the government.
这是共和党执政三十年的功劳，尤其是罗恩·德桑蒂斯州长改革的八年。但即使在那里，他们赢得比赛的优势也比任何最近的选举都要小。各州是政治人才的“农场队”，也是政府改革的“试验田”。周二的悲剧在于，由于特朗普第二任期的衰退，一代保守派州级改革面临危险，年轻的政治领袖们失去了职位。
This is a credit to GOP governance over three decades, notably Gov. Ron DeSantis’s eight reforming years. But even there they won races more narrowly than in any recent election. The states are farm teams for political talent and test labs for government reform. The tragedy of Tuesday is that, owing to Mr. Trump’s second-term descent, a generation of conservative state reform is in peril and young political leaders are out of office.