最近一个周六的上午，在威斯康星州格林代尔，50人聚集在一栋普通的单层住宅外，为民主党敲门拉票。前州党主席本·威克勒向人群讲话，强调了这项任务的重要性。民主党有机会推翻共和党在该州长达16年的主导地位。
On a recent Saturday morning in Greendale, Wisconsin, 50 people gathered outside a modest ranch house to knock on doors for the Democratic Party. Addressing the group, Ben Wikler, the former chairman of the state party, stressed the importance of their task. Democrats have a chance to undo 16 years of Republican dominance in the state.
威斯康星州并非民主党唯一关注的州。尽管全国范围内争夺国会的选战最受关注，民主党也有机会夺取几个州政府的控制权。共和党在23个州拥有“三连胜”，即同时控制州议会两院和州长职位。民主党则有16个。如果蓝色浪潮足够大，民主党可能新创六个“三连胜”，包括威斯康星州，并打破几个共和党的“三连胜”。
Wisconsin is not the only state Democrats have their eye on. Though the battle for Congress gets most of the attention nationwide, Democrats also have a chance to wrest control of several state governments. Republicans have “trifectas” in 23 states—meaning they control both chambers of the state legislature and the governorship. Democrats have 16. With a big enough blue wave, Democrats could create six new trifectas, including in Wisconsin, and break several Republican ones.
这种转变的后果将十分深远。州政府对堕胎、教育、医疗、税收和劳动法等问题拥有巨大权力。它们还参与决定选举规则和国会选区边界，从而塑造华盛顿的权力平衡。拥有“三连胜”的政党可以相对轻松地推行其议程。威斯康星州就是一个典型例子。
The consequences of such a shift would be far-reaching. State governments wield enormous power over matters like abortion, education, health care, taxation and labour laws. They also help determine the rules governing elections and the boundaries of congressional districts, shaping the balance of power in Washington. With a trifecta, a party can enact its agenda with relative ease. Wisconsin is a case in point.
尽管民主党人托尼·埃弗斯于2019年成为州长，威斯康星州仍保留着其共和党前任斯科特·沃克颁布的一系列保守法律，沃克执政时拥有“三连胜”。沃克通过允许私营部门雇员享受集体谈判的好处而无需付费，削弱了工会。他还大幅削减了公共部门工人的集体谈判权。他的政府抵制提高最低工资的尝试——最低工资仅为每小时7.25美元——并拒绝根据奥巴马医改扩大医疗补助。离任前，沃克签署了削弱继任者行政权力的立法，使埃弗斯更难扭转方向。
Though Tony Evers, a Democrat, became governor in 2019, Wisconsin retains a raft of conservative laws enacted by his Republican predecessor, Scott Walker, who governed with a trifecta. Mr Walker weakened unions by allowing private-sector employees to benefit from collective bargaining without paying for it. He also sharply curtailed collective-bargaining rights for public-sector workers. His administration resisted attempts to increase the minimum wage, which is a paltry $7.25 an hour, and refused to expand Medicaid under Obamacare. Before leaving office Mr Walker signed legislation weakening his successor’s executive powers, making it harder for Mr Evers to reverse course.
州民主党主席德文·雷米克表示，若实现三连胜，民主党人便可推翻沃克先生的“破坏遗产”。他们或许还会将大麻合法化、把堕胎权写入州法律，并终结该州的学校代金券制度。2023年一场司法选举让自由派在州最高法院占据多数后，他们的前景有所改善。最高法院推翻了威斯康星州的选举地图，促使共和党议员批准由埃弗斯先生绘制的新地图，而不是冒险让法院强加更不利的版本。在新地图下，民主党在2024年取得重大进展。他们现在只需在州下议院翻转五个席位、在上议院翻转两个席位。
With a trifecta, Democrats could undo Mr Walker’s “legacy of destruction”, says Devin Remiker, the state’s party chairman. They might also legalise marijuana, enshrine abortion rights in state law and end the state’s school-voucher system. Their prospects improved after a judicial election in 2023 delivered a liberal majority on the state Supreme Court. It struck down Wisconsin’s electoral maps, prompting Republican legislators to approve new ones drawn by Mr Evers rather than risk even less favourable versions being imposed by the court. Under the new maps, Democrats made big gains in 2024. They now need to flip just five seats in the state’s lower house and two in the upper house.
在其他地方，通往民主党三连胜的道路各不相同。在亚利桑那州，与威斯康星州一样，民主党需要翻转两院，才能创造该党60多年来的首个三连胜。在密歇根州、明尼苏达州和宾夕法尼亚州，只需改变一个议院的控制权。在内华达州，关键的较量是一场势均力敌的州长竞选。这六个州恰好也都是总统选举的战场州。如果2028年的总统选举像前两次一样竞争激烈，对这些州议会的控制权或许至关重要。
Elsewhere, the path to a Democratic trifecta varies. In Arizona, as in Wisconsin, Democrats would need to flip both legislative chambers to create the party’s first trifecta in over 60 years. In Michigan, Minnesota and Pennsylvania just one chamber would need to change hands. In Nevada the critical contest is a tight governor’s race. All six also happen to be presidential battlegrounds states. If the presidential election in 2028 is as closely fought as the previous two, control of their statehouses may matter.