除非出现意外情况，民调显示共和党人很可能在今年11月失去众议院，甚至参议院的控制权。现在的问题已不再是民主党能否取得进展，而是这次“蓝色浪潮”的声势会有多大。围绕国会选举的争夺已备受瞩目，随着选举日日益临近，这种关注度还将持续上升。
Unless we’re in for a surprise, polling suggests Republicans are on track to lose the House and possibly the Senate this November. The question is no longer whether Democrats will gain ground, but how big the blue wave will be. The battle for Congress has drawn plenty of attention and will continue to as we inch closer to Election Day.
容易被忽视的一点是：共和党人不仅可能失去国会，还有可能丧失对各州州长职位的掌控权。正如前共和党州长协会主席克里斯·克里斯蒂对《Politico》所言：“15年来首次，我们可能面临失去多数州长席位的局面。”这种失利所带来的打击，甚至会比失去国会更为严重。虽然将众议院和参议院拱手让给民主党绝非小事，尤其是当部分当选者隶属于美国民主社会主义者组织时；但对普通美国人而言，失去各州的掌控权影响更为深远。
What’s flying under the radar is that Republicans could lose not only Congress but their grip on governors' mansions, as well. As former Republican Governors Association chair Chris Christie told Politico, "for the first time in 15 years, we could be in a position to lose a majority of the governorships." That loss would be an even bigger blow than losing Congress. Losing the House and the Senate to the Left is nothing to take lightly, especially if some of those candidates are aligned with the Democratic Socialists of America. But losing the states would be more consequential for Americans.
民主党人认为“蓝色浪潮”正在形成。以下三大因素或能阻止这一趋势。通常州长们很少成为全国性新闻的焦点，但实际上很少有其他民选官员能对美国家庭的生活产生如此深远的影响。
DEMOCRATS THINK A BLUE WAVE IS BUILDING. HERE ARE 3 FORCES THAT COULD STOP IT Governors rarely dominate the national news cycle, but few elected officials have more influence over the lives of American families.
他们掌管着从教育、公共安全到基础设施建设等各个领域的事务，多数州长还掌控着本州预算——决定开支重点以及哪些项目能获得资金支持。通过与州议会协作，他们主导着那些与民众生活息息相关的议题走向。
They oversee everything from education to public safety to infrastructure, and many control their state’s budget — setting spending priorities and deciding which programs receive funding. Working with their legislatures, they set the agenda on the issues that touch individuals most directly.
当国会陷入僵局、效率低下且深陷华盛顿的官僚体制之中时，州长却能制定切实影响各个社区与街区的政策。
While Congress is inert, ineffective, and operating from the Imperial City, a governor shapes policies that reach into communities and neighborhoods.
目前，共和党人掌控着26个州的州长职位，民主党人则占据24个。自2011年起，共和党便一直保持着这一多数优势。不过到了11月，这一优势很可能不保。
Right now, Republicans hold 26 governorships to Democrats’ 24. The GOP has held that majority since 2011. But it may slip away come November.
民主党的势头始于去年秋天，当时阿比盖尔·斯潘伯格赢得了弗吉尼亚州州长职位，米基·谢里尔为本党守住了新泽西州。看看斯潘伯格在任不足一年的时间里在弗吉尼亚州推动了什么。她恢复了DEI政策，支持绕过两党重划选区委员会的努力（该委员会最终被州最高法院推翻），并提高了最低工资，使小企业更难应对不断上涨的成本。
Democrats’ momentum began last fall when Abigail Spanberger flipped Virginia’s governorship and Mikie Sherrill held New Jersey for her party. Just look at what Spanberger has advanced in Virginia with less than a year in office. She has revived DEI policies, backed an effort to bypass the bipartisan redistricting commission that the state Supreme Court ultimately struck down, and raised the minimum wage, making it harder for small businesses to keep up with rising costs.
11月3日，36个州将选举州长，共和党和民主党各自捍卫18个席位。在不举行选举的14个州中，民主党占据6个，共和党占据8个。
Thirty-six states will choose a governor on November 3, with Republicans and Democrats each defending 18 seats. Of the 14 states not holding elections, Democrats hold six and Republicans hold eight.
爱荷华州民主党州长候选人表示不想要拜登或哈里斯为他助选 根据库克政治报告，今年有13场竞选稳操胜券地倾向民主党，其中包括几位目光投向2028年总统大选的现任州长：伊利诺伊州的JB·普里兹克、马里兰州的韦斯·摩尔和宾夕法尼亚州的乔什·夏皮罗。
IOWA DEM GUBERNATORIAL CANDIDATE SAYS HE WOULD NOT WANT BIDEN OR HARRIS TO CAMPAIGN FOR HIM According to the Cook Political Report , 13 of this year’s races are solidly Democratic, including a few incumbents who’ve got their eyes on 2028 presidential aspirations: Illinois’ JB Pritzker, Maryland’s Wes Moore, and Pennsylvania’s Josh Shapiro.
亚利桑那州、俄勒冈州、密歇根州，以及对共和党最令人担忧的——爱荷华州——都倾向民主党。爱荷华州二十年来未选出过民主党州长，但今年可能改变这一局面，民调显示州长候选人罗布·桑德领先其共和党对手扎克·拉恩。共和党最好的翻盘机会在堪萨斯州，那里的民主党州长劳拉·凯利因任期限制无法连任。
Arizona, Oregon, Michigan, and, most troubling for Republicans — Iowa — all lean Democratic. Iowa hasn’t elected a Democratic governor in two decades but that could change this year as polls show gubernatorial candidate Rob Sand leading his Republican opponent Zach Lahn. Republicans’ best pickup opportunity is Kansas, where Democratic Governor Laura Kelly is term limited.
然后有五个胶着州：阿拉斯加、佐治亚州、内华达州、俄亥俄州和威斯康星州。其中四个由共和党把持，只剩威斯康星州是民主党防守。如果民主党仅净增两个席位，他们就将夺得多数。
Then there are the five toss-ups: Alaska, Georgia, Nevada, Ohio, and Wisconsin. Four of them are Republican-held, leaving Wisconsin as the only one Democrats are defending. If Democrats just net two seats, they take the majority.
哈桑·皮克尔将AOC作为其2028年总统人选，称这"甚至不是个问题" 这些竞选不仅仅是红蓝对决的记分卡。它们将决定哪个党的执政方式塑造未来四年三十六个州的日常生活。
HASAN PIKER MAKES AOC HIS 2028 PICK FOR PRESIDENT, SAYS IT'S 'NOT EVEN A QUESTION’ These races are more than a scorecard of red versus blue. They’ll decide which party’s approach to governing shapes daily life in three dozen states for the next four years.
此外，各州及其州长还是抵御联邦政府越权行为的最后一道防线。民主社会主义者已经将目光投向了2028年，众议员亚历山德里亚·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯也日益被视为潜在的总统候选人。面对来自华盛顿特区的威胁，州长们或许正是那道阻挡社会主义议程蔓延至全国各地的屏障。美国人在今年秋季投票选举州长时，应当牢记这一点。
What’s more, the states and the governors who lead them serve as the last line of defense against an overreaching federal government. Democratic Socialists already have their eyes on 2028, with Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez increasingly talked about as a potential presidential contender. In the face of threats emanating from DC, governors could be the ones standing between a socialist agenda and the rest of the country. Americans should keep that in mind as they cast their votes for governor this fall.