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休·休伊特:中期选举还有一个月——你需要知道其中的利害关系HUGH HEWITT: The midterms are one month out — you need to know the stakes

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简短的答案:如果出现"蓝色浪潮",国家的国家安全将受到严重威胁,几乎不会有任何新的联邦法官或内阁人事的任命。国家急需的国防开支不会被拨款,如果他成为参议院多数党领袖,查克·舒默将阻止几乎所有特朗普总统提名人的确认。这些变化会带来什么影响?一方面——手里拿着一本历史课本的那只手——答案是"影响不大"。期待"蓝色浪潮"的人们可能会失望于选举之夜国会的一或两院没有翻转,但即使翻转了,左派将面临另一种失望。

The short answer: If a "blue wave" materializes, the nation’s national security will be greatly compromised and almost no new federal judges or cabinet appointments of any kind will occur. The sort of defense spending the country definitely and urgently needs will not be appropriated, and if he becomes majority leader in the Senate, Chuck Schumer will shut down confirmations of almost all nominees from President Trump. What difference would those changes make? On the one hand — the hand that keeps a history textbook open — the answer is "not much." People expecting a "blue wave" may be disappointed that one or both of the houses of Congress don’t flip on election night, but even if they do, a different kind of disappointment awaits the Left LEE CARTER: POLLS SAY DEMOCRATS COULD SWAMP REPUBLICANS.

李·卡特:民调显示民主党可能淹没共和党。作为一位民意调查专家,我有一个问题首先,即使是对左派最乐观的情景也无法让民主党在两个立法机构中获得克制总统否决的绝对多数——这种单党治国的模式,例如曾彻底毁了加利福尼亚州。分党治国是重复政府关门的配方,这可能会惹恼人甚至破坏一些事物,但无法带来根本性的改变。

AS A POLLSTER, I HAVE A QUESTION First, even the rosiest of scenarios for the left doesn’t give Democrats veto-proof majorities in both legislative chambers, the sort of one-party governance that, for example, that has wrecked California. Divided government is a recipe for repeating government shutdowns which can annoy and even destroy some things, but cannot bring about fundamental change.

华盛顿特区的民主党人无法将整个美国变成加利福尼亚或纽约,除非至少掌控三个政府分支中的所有权力,而即使如此,美国社会主义者要求的那种变革——废除参议院和填补最高法院——是他们"必不可少"的要求,需要至少超级多数席位,可能还需要宪法修正案。社会主义者推出激进平台,旨在废除美国参议院,以彻底改变美国因此,左派的狂想将很长时间内无法实现,因为无论"无王"联盟派系聚集多么频繁,宪法是如此坚强,不会屈服于狂热的革命激情。

Democrats in D.C. cannot make all of America into California or New York without at least partisan control of all three branches of government and even then the sort of change the Democratic Socialists of America demand — abolition of the Senate and packing the Supreme Court are two of their "must haves" — require at least super majorities and probably Constitutional amendments. SOCIALISTS LAUNCH RADICAL PLATFORM TO ABOLISH THE US SENATE IN BID TO FUNDAMENTALLY TRANSFORM AMERICA The fever dreams of the Left are thus going to remain unfulfilled for a very long time, because, no matter how often the "No Kings" canasta parties gather, the Constitution is very strong and doesn’t yield to fits of high revolutionary passion.

这项制度的设立正是考虑到仓促立法可能带来的风险。由于审慎审议是我们宪政体制的应有之义,而非缺陷,因此真正快速推进的事情确实罕见。但即便如此,仍会造成严重损害,尤其是对国家安全支出而言。由共和党掌控的跛脚鸭国会或许会试图通过一项为期三年的国防拨款法案;但如果无法在2026年11月4日至2027年1月3日之间完成这一目标,美国军队将再次面临类似“预算冻结”时期那样的国家安全自我伤害。

It was built with the danger of precipitous legislative action in mind and, because deliberation is a feature, not a bug, of our constitutional order, it is rare indeed when anything happens fast. But significant damage would be done nonetheless, especially to national security spending. A lame duck Congress run by Republicans could try and pass a three-year defense appropriation, but if it can’t get that done between November 4, 2026, and January 3, 2027, the American military will be subject again to the sort of national security self-harm done during the years of "the Sequester."

此外,民主党对参议院的控制几乎也意味着,任何联邦上诉法院或最高法院的提名人选都难以通过由查克·舒默掌控的参议院。舒默只需重播当时参议院多数党领袖麦康奈尔在斯卡利亚大法官意外去世之后宣布“既不举行听证会,也不进行投票”的录像即可。舒默会声称,正是麦康奈尔树立了这一先例。麦康奈尔在2020年拒绝推进梅里克·加兰的提名,与2027年民主党在参议院仅以微弱多数阻止最高法院提名人选投票这两种不同情形所带来的公众观感,或许足够强烈,足以动摇民主党复仇的决心;但即便形象再糟糕,这种抵制恐怕也不会被打破,尤其是在2028年。

Democratic control of the Senate is also almost a guarantee that not a single federal appeals court or Supreme Court nominee would pass through a Chuck Schumer-managed Senate. Schumer would simply roll tape of then-Senate Majority Leader McConnell announcing "no hearings, no votes" in the aftermath of the untimely death of Justice Scalia. Schumer will argue that McConnell set the precedent. The optics of the different situations between McConnell’s refusal to move Merrick Garland forward in 2020 and those that result if a narrow Democratic Senate majority in 2027 blocks a vote on a Supreme Court nominee might be dramatic enough to wear down Democrats' resolve for revenge, but probably even a terrible look would not budge such a boycott and certainly not in 2028.

此外,无论下次选举还有多久,舒默很可能也会拒绝允许对特朗普提名的非司法类人选进行投票。一旦他允许对任何有重要影响的提名人选进行全院投票,除非他确信能获得足够票数击败该提名人选,否则他作为领袖的地位将立即不保。

Schumer would also likely refuse to allow votes on non-judicial Trump nominees no matter how far out the next election. His hold on the job of leader would be gone the instant he permitted a floor vote on any nominee of consequence, unless he was certain of the votes to defeat that nominee.

多数党领袖图恩警告查克·舒默:他“生活在恐惧之中”,担心社会主义者会接管民主党。我们也知道,今年民主党参议员提名人选中的极左派——密歇根州的阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德、德克萨斯州的詹姆斯·塔拉里科、明尼苏达州的佩吉·弗拉纳根、俄亥俄州的谢罗德·布朗、新罕布什尔州的克里斯·帕帕斯和阿拉斯加州的玛丽·佩尔托拉——将与民主党党团中已有的反国防鸽派联合起来。

MAJORITY LEADER THUNE WARNS CHUCK SCHUMER 'LIVES IN FEAR' OF SOCIALISTS TAKING OVER DEMOCRATIC PARTY We also know that the hard-left of the Democratic Senate nominees this year — Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan, James Talarico in Texas, Peggy Flanagan in Minnesota, Sherrod Brown in Ohio, Chris Pappas in New Hampshire and Mary Peltola in Alaska — will be united with the anti-defense doves already in the Democratic caucus.

国家所亟需的——为国防工业基础提供预算需求信号——将会逐渐消失。美国造船业的复兴也将随之终结,而与此同时,中国共产党却在欢呼着美国政府通过大规模监管人工智能和类人工智能技术,对其美国竞争对手实施压制。因此,“蓝色浪潮”将造成巨大破坏,但有些事情它也无法做到。例如,特朗普总统对美国军队的持续掌控不会受到任何影响,这种浪潮也不会抹去最高法院过去十年间逐步回归宪法的进程。

What the country must have — a budgeted demand signal for the defense-industrial base — will flicker out. The rebirth of American shipbuilding will disappear too, even as China’s Communist Party cheers on the smothering blanket of big government regulation of AI/SI descending on its competitors in the United States. So a "blue wave" would do great damage, but there are some things such a wave could not do. President Trump’s continued command of the American military would be unimpaired, for example, nor would such a wave wipe out the re-mooring to the Constitution that has been ongoing at the Supreme Court for the past decade.

文章。因此,“蓝色浪潮”将是极其糟糕的消息,但它不会颠覆共和国。共和党候选人在警告称将多数席位交给民主党后可能引发的混乱方面立场坚定,但应避免过度恐慌。那些希望民主党取得胜利的国外对手也应记住,2006年共和党遭遇惨败后,乔治·W·布什总统正是下令实施了“增兵计划”。如果伊朗的残存政权指望民主党来拯救它免受特朗普的威胁,那他们大错特错了。

So a blue wave would be very bad news, but it wouldn’t overturn the Republic. GOP candidates are on firm ground with warnings about the mess that would follow giving majorities to Democrats but should avoid hysteria. Our adversaries abroad who are hoping for a Democratic wave should also remember that President George W. Bush ordered "the surge" after Republicans got "thumped" in 2006. If the rump regime in Iran is counting on Democrats to save it from Trump, they could not be more wrong. ended and the Constitution intact.

结束,而宪法依然完整。但不要因此认为共和国正处于危险之中。目前并非如此。休·休伊特是福克斯新闻的撰稿人,也是《休·休伊特秀》的主持人,该节目于美国东部时间工作日下午3点至6点在塞勒姆广播网络播出,并在塞勒姆新闻频道同步转播。

But don’t do so because the Republic is in peril. It’s not. Yet. Hugh Hewitt is a Fox News contributor and host of "The Hugh Hewitt Show" heard weekday afternoons from 3 PM to 6 PM ET on the Salem Radio Network, and simulcast on Salem News Channel.

休·休伊特通过全国超过400家合作电台以及所有可以收看SNC的流媒体平台,为东海岸的美国人提供回家路上的陪伴,并为西海岸的听众带来午餐时段的节目。他经常作为嘉宾出席福克斯新闻频道(Fox News Channel)的新闻圆桌讨论节目,该节目由布雷特·拜尔(Bret Baier)主持,于美国东部时间每周五下午6点播出。

Hugh drives Americans home on the East Coast and to lunch on the West Coast on over 400 affiliates nationwide, and on all the streaming platforms where SNC can be seen. He is a frequent guest on the Fox News Channel’s news roundtable, hosted by Bret Baier weekdays at 6pm ET.

作为俄亥俄州的儿子,休伊特毕业于哈佛大学和密歇根大学法学院,自1996年以来一直担任查普曼大学福勒法学院(Chapman University’s Fowler School of Law)的法学教授,教授宪法课程。1990年,休伊特在洛杉矶创办了以自己名字命名的广播节目。多年来,他频繁亮相各大全国性新闻电视网络,曾为PBS和MSNBC主持电视节目,为美国各大报纸撰稿,撰写了十几本书,并主持过多场共和党候选人辩论,最近一次是2023年11月在迈阿密举行的共和党总统候选人辩论,以及2015-2016年选举周期中的四场共和党总统辩论。

A son of Ohio and a graduate of Harvard College and the University of Michigan Law School, Hewitt has been a Professor of Law at Chapman University’s Fowler School of Law since 1996 where he teaches Constitutional Law. Hewitt launched his eponymous radio show from Los Angeles in 1990. Hewitt has frequently appeared on every major national news television network, hosted television shows for PBS and MSNBC, written for every major American paper, has authored a dozen books and moderated a score of Republican candidate debates, most recently the November 2023 Republican presidential debate in Miami and four Republican presidential debates in the 2015-16 cycle.

休伊特的广播节目和专栏主要聚焦于宪法、国家安全、美国政治,以及克利夫兰布朗队(Cleveland Browns)和守护者队(Guardians)。在40年的广播生涯中,他采访过数以万计的嘉宾,从民主党人希拉里·克林顿(Hillary Clinton)和约翰·克里(John Kerry),到共和党总统乔治·W·布什(George W. Bush)和唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)。本专栏将提前介绍今天其广播/电视节目中的头条内容。

Hewitt focuses his radio show and his column on the Constitution, national security, American politics and the Cleveland Browns and Guardians. Hewitt has interviewed tens of thousands of guests from Democrats Hillary Clinton and John Kerry to Republican Presidents George W. Bush and Donald Trump over his 40 years in broadcasting. This column previews the lead story that will drive his radio/ TV show today. FROM HUGH HEWITT