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关于Anthropic的重磅AI报告引发热议,三大要点值得关注3 takeaways from the big AI report on Anthropic everyone is talking about

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Anthropic在其S-1招股说明书中向投资者提示了能源成本上升以及其巨额多年期承诺等风险。Anthropic flagged risks like higher energy costs and its large multiyear commitments to investors in its S-1 prospectus.

一家总部位于旧金山的人工智能公司正在以令人眩晕的速度利用现有AI模型训练未来的AI模型,同时囤积未发布的模型。这据周四由第三方安全研究人员撰写的报告称——该报告研究人员警告称,该报告在Anthropic的要求下被大量删减。METR在其报告中表示:“虽然我们能够自由分享关于风险的最高级别结论,但Anthropic删减了我们发现的最具信息量的证据。”

Anthropic is using existing AI models to train future AI models at a dizzying pace. It's also stockpiling unreleased models. That's according to a new report from third-party safety researchers embedded at the company's San Francisco headquarters released on Thursday — a report the researchers cautioned was heavily redacted at Anthropic's insistence. "While we were able to freely share our highest-level conclusions about risk, Anthropic redacted a majority of the evidence we found most informative for these conclusions," METR said in its report.

为了撰写这份报告,METR——一个研究小组或许因发布过OpenAI的Hugging Face智能体泄露报告而闻名——的研究人员表示,他们获得了“前所未有的”进入该公司近三个月的访问权限。该研究小组的六名研究人员采访了员工,监控了内部Slack频道,并使用公司硬件检查了未发布的AI模型。以下是他们的报告中的四个要点:Anthropic员工正在使用比其他人更好的AI模型。

To craft their report, researchers from METR, a research group perhaps best known for its report on OpenAI's Hugging Face agent breach, said they received "unprecedented access" inside the company for nearly three months. The group of six researchers interviewed employees, monitored internal Slack channels, and examined unreleased AI models using company hardware. Here are four takeaways from their report. Anthropic workers are using better AI models than the rest of us.

事实上,METR的报告称,过去六个月中,该公司完成了三款尚未向公众发布的模型的训练。METR发现,Anthropic仅限内部的模型包括一款2022年的模型,以及7月完成、8月或9月、9月或10月完成的模型。根据METR的估计,这些仅限内部的模型帮助Anthropic以更快的速度提升AI能力。这一披露指向了AI行业的高风险行为之一。

In fact, METR's report says that over the last six months, the company has finished training three models that aren't yet available to the public. METR found that Anthropic's internal-only models include one from 2022, as well as models finished this July, sometime in August or September, and sometime in September or October. Those internal-only models are helping Anthropic improve its AI capabilities even faster, according to METR's estimates. The disclosure points to one of the AI industry's high-wire acts.

Anthropic和OpenAI通过向公众销售最先进的AI模型赚钱。然而,将最先进的模型保持为私有,也能给公司的产品和研发团队带来竞争优势。出于安全顾虑,高管们可以更长时间地保持模型为私有。

Anthropic and OpenAI make money by selling the most advanced AI models to the public. Keeping state-of-the-art models private, however, also gives the companies' product and research teams a competitive advantage. Executives could keep models private for longer due to safety concerns.

Anthropic 和 OpenAI 的一批高度强大的内部模型是 METR 的 Ajeya Cotra 今年早些时候对《商业内幕》表示,她预计 AI 安全的“最严重事件”会发生在这两家公司之一的原因之一。Anthropic 提交了内部 Slack 投票数据,显示该 AI 巨头的员工报告了显著的生产力提升。METR 写道,截至十月,针对“最强内部模型”的自报平均提升约为 12 倍。METR 警告称,Slack 投票证据薄弱,因为可能并未代表所有 Anthropic 员工。该研究组织还提醒,受访者可能并未对答案进行深思。

Anthropic and OpenAI's batches of highly capable internal models are part of why METR Ajeya Cotra told Business Insider earlier this year that she expects AI safety's "most serious incidents" to happen at the two companies. Anthropic turned over internal Slack poll data showing that the AI giant's staffers are reporting major productivity gains. METR wrote that the average self-reported increase was roughly 12x "for the most capable internal model" as of October. METR cautioned that it considers Slack polls weak evidence because they may not represent all Anthropic employees. The research group also cautioned that respondents may not have given their answers much thought.

当 METR 采访 Anthropic 研究人员关于他们的体验时,许多人谈到 Claude 大幅提升了他们的工作效率。一位研究人员对 METR 说:“现在只受限于想法和算力,不再受限于代码”,并认同 Claude 至少使他们的生产力翻倍的观点。更引人注目的是,METR 并未看到“观察到的瓶颈”,这些瓶颈本可能阻止加速在未来一年进一步提升。“缺乏观察到的瓶颈或强烈的递减效应意味着进一步的能力进展可能导致更快的加速,尽管正如我们下面所说,我们可能遗漏了重要的瓶颈,”METR 写道。

When METR interviewed Anthropic researchers about their experiences, many spoke about how Claude has significantly boosted their work. "Now only bottlenecked on ideas & compute, no longer bottlenecked on code," one researcher told METR, agreeing with the idea that Claude has at least doubled their productivity. More striking is that METR didn't see "observed bottlenecks" that would prevent acceleration from increasing further over the next year. "The lack of observed bottlenecks or strong diminishing returns means there is a significant risk that further capabilities progress could lead to even faster acceleration, though, as we say below, we may be missing important bottlenecks," METR wrote.

Anthropic 的工程师正日益将更多监督和训练职责委派给其他 AI 模型,这是一种被称为递归自我改进的风险过程。该方法在速度上已显成效。METR 发现 Anthropic 在过去一年实现了“大约两年的历史进展”。研究人员表示,他们被告知研究与开发的加速主要是“通过 AI 辅助而非完全自主的贡献”实现的。“但有一些迹象表明,完全自主的贡献很快将发挥更大作用,”METR 说。

Anthropic engineers are increasingly delegating more oversight and training responsibilities to other AI models, a risky process known as recursive self-improvement. The method is paying off in terms of speed. METR found that Anthropic has made "roughly two years of historical progress over the last year." The researchers said they were told that research and development acceleration was accomplished "primarily via AI assistance rather than fully autonomous contributions." "But there are some signs that fully autonomous contributions will play a larger role soon," METR said.

9月从Anthropic离职的前研究员雅各布·考克森指出,递归式自我改进是可能导致AI系统失控的一个因素。他在谈到OpenAI和Anthropic时说:“他们正径直冲向能自我改进的超级智能,拿我们的生命赌博。”

Jacob Coxon, the ex-Anthropic researcher who quit the company in September, pointed to recursive self-improvement as a factor that could cause AI systems to get out of hand. "They are racing straight to self-improving superintelligence and gambling with our lives," he said of OpenAI and Anthropic.

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