美国总统唐纳德·特朗普在中期选举中遭遇挫折，这可能会促使他加大力度重启与朝鲜的接触，但若要做出重大让步，则有可能与地区盟友产生摩擦。
The rebuke President Donald Trump suffered in the US midterm elections could prompt him to step up efforts to re-engage North Korea, but any willingness to make major concessions risks creating friction with regional allies.
亚洲的分析人士和官员预计，特朗普将把重心放在外交政策上，以便在任期最后两年建立政治遗产。由于解决乌克兰和伊朗战争的努力尚未取得突破，他极有可能转向亚洲，因为他认为在那里有回旋余地。
Analysts and officials in Asia expect Trump to focus on foreign policy as he seeks to build his legacy in the final two years of his term. With efforts to resolve the wars in Ukraine and Iran yet to produce breakthroughs, he is likely to turn to Asia, where he believes he has room to manoeuvre.
他们表示，朝鲜领导人金正恩——特朗普一直渴望与其重启会谈——很可能是这一努力的关键部分。
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, with whom Trump has been eager to restart talks, is likely to be a key part of that effort, they say.
“特朗普很可能会投入巨大精力争取外交政策上的成功，特别是如果他在国内面临更大制约的话，”韩国外交学院国际关系学教授班吉柱（Ban Kil-joo，音译）说。
"Trump is likely to devote significant effort to achieving foreign policy successes, especially if he faces greater constraints on the domestic front," said Ban Kil-joo, international relations professor at the Korea National Diplomatic Academy in Seoul.
“考虑到特朗普希望其继任者在2028年获胜，与朝鲜接触极有可能成为该议程的一部分，”他说。但分析人士称，目前金正恩几乎没有回应的动力。
"Given Trump would want a successor to win in 2028, there is a strong possibility that engagement with North Korea would be part of that agenda," he said. But there is little incentive at the moment for Kim to respond, analysts say.
当被问及特朗普与朝鲜外交的计划时，白宫表示，特朗普已恢复美国在全球舞台上的实力，并加强了与世界领导人的关系。“他的外交政策决策从未受政治动机驱动，”白宫发言人安娜·凯莉在致路透社的电子邮件置评中表示。
Asked about Trump's plans for diplomacy with North Korea, the White House said Trump has restored American strength on the global stage and strengthened ties with world leaders. "His foreign policy decisions have never been motivated by politics," White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said in emailed comments to Reuters.
“总司令将始终以美国人民和国家安全的最大利益行事。”特朗普在首个任期内曾与金正恩会晤三次，此前两人曾互相攻击、引发军事冲突担忧。
"The Commander-in-Chief will always act in the best interest of the American people and our national security." Trump met Kim three times during his first term after a war of words that raised fears of military conflict.
但他们2019年的峰会因未能就朝鲜核武器计划和制裁减免达成协议而以无果告终。
But their 2019 summit ended without agreement after they failed to reach a deal on North Korea's nuclear weapons programme and sanctions relief.
七年后，赌注更大。朝鲜扩充了核武库和导弹库，而平壤与俄罗斯、中国的关系是多年来最好的，这让金正恩缺乏谈判动力，并可能增加特朗普做出让步的压力。
Seven years later, the stakes are higher. North Korea has expanded its nuclear and missile arsenal, while Pyongyang's ties with Russia and China are the best in years, giving Kim less incentive to negotiate and potentially increasing pressure on Trump to offer concessions.
特朗普吹嘘他与金正恩的关系，称对方是“很棒的人”，并说他们“相处得非常好”。尽管如此，美国和韩国官员认为，今年举行会晤的机会正在渺茫，在本月中国举行的地区峰会前，华盛顿未收到平壤的任何回应，双方本可能在那里会面。
Trump has touted his relationship with Kim, calling him a "great guy" and saying that they "get along very well." Nonetheless, US and South Korean officials see fading chances of a meeting this year, with Washington receiving no response from Pyongyang ahead of a regional summit in China this month where they might have met.
金正恩极具影响力的妹妹金与正表示，对话仍是通往和平的途径，但平壤目前看不到谈判的必要。她谴责了所谓华盛顿的“敌对政策”，同时否认了美国的指控，即朝鲜上周从币安窃取了超过60亿美元的虚拟资产。
Kim's influential sister, Kim Yo Jong, has said dialogue remains a path to peace but Pyongyang sees no need for talks now. She denounced what she called Washington's "hostile policy" while denying US accusations that North Korea stole more than $6 billion in virtual assets from Binance last week.
她哥哥此前曾表示，如果华盛顿停止坚持要求朝鲜放弃核武器，他愿意进行谈判。地区盟友韩国和日本反对任何此类让步。
Her brother has previously said he was open to talks if Washington stopped insisting his country give up nuclear weapons. Regional allies South Korea and Japan are opposed to any such concession.
首尔梨花女子大学国际学教授李夫·埃里克·伊斯利表示：“搁置无核化的峰会将削弱威慑力，并在华盛顿、首尔和东京之间制造政策摩擦。”
"A summit that shelves denuclearisation would undermine deterrence and create policy friction among Washington, Seoul and Tokyo," said Leif-Eric Easley, professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul.
一位不愿透露姓名的日本高级官员表示，日本和韩国官员担心，如果特朗普在北京和莫斯科的默许下直接与金正恩打交道，他们可能会被“排除在圈外”。
Officials in Japan and South Korea are concerned they could be "cut out of the loop" if Trump deals directly with Kim, with the quiet blessing of Beijing and Moscow, a senior Japanese official said, speaking on the condition of anonymity.
“（日本官员）担心他为与朝鲜金正恩举行峰会会走多远，例如放弃无核化议题。”特朗普曾将朝鲜称为核大国，尽管平壤被认为已建造了数十枚核弹头并拥有裂变材料储备，但地区盟友和西方国家拒绝承认这一地位。
"(Japanese officials) are concerned about the lengths he will go to get a summit with North Korea’s Kim Jong Un, such as dropping the issue of denuclearisation." Trump has referred to North Korea as a nuclear power, a status that allies in the region and the West have refused to recognise despite the dozens of nuclear warheads Pyongyang is believed to have built and its stockpile of fissile material.
“如果美朝会谈导致华盛顿接受朝鲜的核国家地位，亚洲的安全环境将发生剧变，”日本上智大学教授前岛和弘表示。
"If US-North Korea talks lead Washington to accept North Korea's nuclear status, the security environment in Asia would change dramatically," said Professor Kazuhiro Maeshima at Sophia University in Japan.
“二战以来最大的变化可能发生在特朗普政府剩余的两年任期内。这是一个严峻的局势。”与2018年至2019年首脑会晤时期相比，金正恩现在拥有规模大得多、先进得多的武库，包括更多的武器和导弹、高超音速滑翔飞行器、不断壮大的现代化舰队和潜艇编队，以及改进后的无人机能力。
"The biggest change since World War Two could occur in the remaining two years of the Trump administration. It is a serious situation." Kim now has a vastly more advanced arsenal than at the time of the 2018-2019 summits, including more weapons and missiles, hypersonic glide vehicles, a growing fleet of modern warships and submarines, and improved drone capabilities.
如果特朗普要让金正恩重返谈判桌，他可能需要提供比部分制裁减免更多的东西。
If Trump were to bring Kim back to the table, he might need to offer more than partial sanctions relief.
延世大学教授、曾任韩国总统国家安全顾问的文正仁表示，此类让步可能面临国内障碍，来自民主党控制的国会以及特朗普有限的任期。
Such concessions could face hurdles at home from a Democratic-controlled Congress and Trump's limited time in office, said Moon Chung-in, a Yonsei University Professor in Seoul who served as a presidential adviser on national security.
“重要的是朝鲜的认知和盘算；如果朝鲜认为特朗普已进入跛脚鸭时期，无法获得国会支持……金正恩就没有理由来对话，”他说。
"And what is important is North Korea's perception and calculation; if North Korea thinks that Trump has entered a lame-duck period and he cannot get the support from Congress... there's no reason for Kim Jong Un to come to dialogue," he said.
曾在特朗普首个任期内领导美朝谈判的前美国副国务卿斯蒂芬·比根也表示，目前平壤几乎没有激励。
Former US Deputy Secretary of State Stephen Biegun, who led US negotiations with North Korea during Trump's first term, also said there were few incentives for Pyongyang currently.
“我认为，朝鲜人目前从这样的会晤中几乎得不到什么好处，反而可能有一些坏处。”
"The North Koreans, I think, have very little upside to a meeting like this right now, and potentially some downside."