
Investing.com - 美国经济10月份新增就业岗位远超预期,失业率也出现下降,这表明劳动力市场依然强劲,可能支持美联储下月加息的论调。通过InvestingPro深入了解关键经济指标——现可享受55%的折扣。非农就业人数跃升至16.5万个,高于9月份修正后为6万个的水平,也高于经济学家预期的6.5万个。美国劳工部劳工统计局周五在一份声明中表示,专业和商业服务、医疗保健、交通和仓储行业的就业增长有所增加。8月和9月的就业数据合计向上修正了8.4万个岗位。
Investing.com - The U.S. economy added far more jobs than anticipated in October, while the unemployment rate dipped, in a sign of a robust labor market that could bolster arguments for a Federal Reserve interest rate hike next month. Dig deeper into key economic indicators with InvestingPro - now 55% off Nonfarm payrolls jumped to 165,000, rising from an upwardly revised total of 60,000 in September and topping economists’ expectations of 65,000. Job gains increased in professional and business services, health care, transportation and warehousing, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics said in a statement on Friday. Employment figures for August and September were revised up by a combined 84,000 roles.
尽管受到伊朗战争引发的能源驱动通胀的压力,以及对人工智能发展将导致大规模失业的担忧,但美国劳动力市场总体上保持了韧性。劳动力参与率小幅升至61.9%,延续了7月份低点以来的反弹势头。本周早些时候公布的数据显示,裁员人数处于历史低位,职位空缺正在攀升。上周,首次申请失业救济金人数——这是衡量劳动力市场健康状况的最及时指标之一——也降至57年来的最低点。
Despite pressures from energy-fueled inflation sparked by the Iran war, as well as worries that developments in artificial intelligence will lead to widespread job losses, the American labor market has remained broadly resilient. The labor force participation rate ticked up slightly to 61.9%, carrying on a rebound from a July low. Layoffs have been historically low and job openings are climbing, data earlier this week showed. First-time claims for jobless benefits, one of the most up-to-date trackers of the health of labor market, also sank to a 57-year trough last week.
围绕劳动力市场是否正在收紧到可能加剧通胀的程度的问题一直层出不穷。然而,一些经济学家和美联储官员一直认为并非如此,他们表示,特朗普政府的移民打击措施和退休潮正在通过缩小工人供应来压低失业率。
Questions have swirled around whether the labor market is now tightening to a degree that could risk contributing to elevated inflation. However, some economists and Fed officials have maintained that this is likely not the case, saying instead that an immigration crackdown by the Trump administration and retirements are tamping down the unemployment rate by shrinking the available supply of workers.
10月份,失业率小幅降至4.1%,而此前预测为4.2%,与9月份持平。
In October, the jobless rate edged down to 4.1%, compared to forecasts that it would September’s level of 4.2%.
工资增长甚至可能呈下降趋势。同比来看,平均时薪增长从3.2%放缓至3.1%。尽管此前预期增长幅度为2.9%,但该数字已从2月份的3.8%降温。
Wage gains may even be on a downward trajectory. On a year over year basis, average hourly earnings growth eased to 3.1% from 3.2%. Although estimates had called for a shallower gain of 2.9%, the number has cooled from 3.8% in February.
虽然这可能表明就业市场正在产生通缩动力,但工资增长放缓可能会给正在应对持续生活成本危机的美国家庭带来进一步压力。可负担性是导致选民在本周中期选举中在很大程度上拒绝美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的政策议程的核心问题——该议程包括与伊朗的长期战争以及对全球贸易伙伴征收的激进关税。
While this could be an indicator of a disinflationary impulse coming from the job market, decelerating wage gains may place a further strain on American households grappling with an ongoing cost-of-living crisis. Affordability was a central issue driving voters to largely reject U.S. President Donald Trump’s policy agenda -- which has included a prolonged war with Iran and aggressive tariffs on global trading partners -- in this week’s midterm elections.




在此背景下,美联储政策制定者将需要决定如何最好地调整利率以抑制通胀,理想情况下不会损害经济活动或劳动力需求。就业市场的强劲迹象可能会为官员们在12月举行的年终会议上提高借贷成本提供空间。该央行此前于9月份三年来首次加息。
Against this backdrop, Fed policymakers will need to decide how best to calibrate rates to quell inflation, ideally without denting economic activity or labor demand. Indications of strength in the job market could give officials the headroom to raise borrowing costs at their final meeting of the year in December. The central bank previously increased rates for the first time in three years in September.
CIBC Capital Markets的分析师在一份报告中表示:“这份报告表明,美国的劳动力市场接近充分就业,这应该能让美联储继续专注于抗击通胀。”
"This report suggests that the labor market remains near full employment in the U.S., which should free up the Fed to continue to focus on the inflation fight," analysts at CIBC Capital Markets said in a note.
根据CME FedWatch的数据,在就业报告发布后,市场继续消化美联储下个月加息25个基点的可能性约为四分之三。周四,由于股市大幅下跌动摇了投资者对主要支撑美国经济增长的人工智能热潮的信心,这一可能性受到打击。
Following the jobs report, markets continued to price in a roughly three-in-four probability of 25-basis-point rate hike by the Fed next month, according to CME FedWatch. Those chances had been dented on Thursday, when a deep stock-market rout rattled investors’ confidence in an artificial intelligence boom which has largely propped up U.S. growth.
但随着逢低买盘提振了美国早盘交易中的芯片股,这种抛售在周五暂停。科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数和基准股指标准普尔500指数在就业数据公布后上涨,而对利率敏感的2年期国债收益率及其10年期基准国债收益率也随之上涨。收益率通常与债券价格呈反向变动。
But that selloff paused on Friday, as dip-buying buoyed chip stocks in early U.S. trading. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite and benchmark S&P 500 advanced after the employment data, while the rate-sensitive 2-year Treasury yield and its 10-year benchmark counterpart rose. Yields tend to move inversely to bond prices.
凯投宏观高级北美经济学家阿里安·柯蒂斯在一份报告中表示:“尽管股市疲软正在加剧金融状况的紧缩,但我们怀疑迄今为止这些走势还不足以排除12月加息的可能性。”
"While the weakness in equities is contributing to tightness in financial conditions, we doubt those moves have been enough so far to rule out a December rate hike," said Ariane Curtis, Senior North America Economist at Capital Economics, in a note.