
美国总统在任期末期往往会更多地聚焦外交政策,尤其是当国会完全落入反对党控制之时。这是因为总统在战争与外交领域拥有广泛权力,而国会限制总统的手段有限。
US presidents have often focused more on foreign policy toward the end of their terms, especially when Congress has fallen under the full control of the opposing party. That’s because they have broad powers over war and diplomacy, areas in which Congress has limited ways to constrain them.
贝拉克·奥巴马和乔治·W·布什在任期最后两年均面临由反对党控制的国会,两人均利用这段时间推行外交政策,这些举措成为其任内最具深远影响的举措之一。
Both Barack Obama and George W. Bush, who spent their final two years in office with a Congress controlled by the opposing party, used that time to push foreign policies that became some of the most consequential moves of their terms.
民主党在11月3日的中期选举中从唐纳德·特朗普总统的共和党手中夺回众议院和参议院的控制权,他们可以试图通过新立法和掌控政府支出来束缚总统手脚。但总统本身拥有广泛权力,包括否决法案和发布行政命令的权力。
The Democrats who wrested control of both the House of Representatives and Senate from President Donald Trump’s Republican Party in Nov. 3 midterm elections can try to tie the president’s hands through new legislation and control over government spending. But the president has broad authority of his own, including the power to veto bills and issue executive orders.
尽管在中期选举中惨败,白宫在新国会于1月初召开后,仍可在以下五大外交政策领域寻找施展空间。
Here are five foreign policy realms where, despite the bruising midterm losses, the White House can look for room to maneuver once the new Congress convenes in early January.
在大选前夕,特朗普暂缓征收新关税,但他仍保留广泛的自主权这样做。虽然法院限制了特朗普利用紧急状态权力征收全面关税,但他仍可依据其他贸易法,无需国会重新批准,即可征收针对特定产品和特定国家的关税。
In the run-up to the election, Trump held off on imposing new tariffs, but he retains wide latitude to do so. While the courts have curtailed Trump’s use of emergency powers to impose sweeping tariffs, he can still levy product- and country-specific duties under other trade laws, without seeking fresh approval from Congress.
最高法院2月裁定特朗普的全球关税违法后,政府转而通过更狭窄的法规替代那些关税。这包括在依据1974年贸易法第301条调查指控主要贸易伙伴未能防止其供应链中存在强迫劳动后,对这些经济体的进口商品征收关税。
When the Supreme Court ruled in February that Trump’s global tariffs were unlawful, the administration shifted to replacing those duties through narrower statutes. That included levying duties on imports from most major trading partners following investigations under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 into the alleged failure of these economies to prevent forced labor in their supply chains.
政府已为可能征收额外的第301条关税奠定基础,启动了一项调查,关注十多个主要贸易伙伴是否保持过剩制造产能。政府还动用一部百年老法,对一系列加拿大商品征收50%关税,并宣布计划扩大所谓的行业关税,即针对特定产品类别征收的关税。
The administration has laid the groundwork for possible additional Section 301 levies with an investigation into concerns that more than a dozen major trading partners maintain excess manufacturing capacity. It also used a century-old law to impose 50% tariffs on a range of Canadian goods, and it has announced plans to expand so-called sectoral tariffs, which are imposed on specific product categories.
与此同时,民主党领袖计划强制国会就撤销关税进行表决。这些关税被广泛指责为推高通胀的元凶,而美国选民在大选中将通胀视为一个主要投票议题。这增加了特朗普达成贸易协议以降低关税的压力。
At the same time, leaders of the Democratic Party plan to force congressional votes on rolling back tariffs. The levies are widely blamed for fueling inflation, which Americans identified as a major voting issue in the election. That increases pressure on Trump to strike trade deals that would lower the tariffs.
正如他下令美军抓捕委内瑞拉领导人尼古拉斯·马杜罗并与伊朗开战所展示的那样,特朗普愿意充分行使其广泛的国家安全权力。虽然国会可通过国防开支来限制总统的雄心,但历任总统均主张作为武装部队总司令拥有部署美军的广泛权力。
As he demonstrated by ordering US forces to capture Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro and going to war with Iran, Trump is willing to lean into his broad national-security powers. While Congress, via defense spending, can squeeze the ambitions of the president, holders of the office have asserted broad authority as commander-in-chief to deploy US forces.
特朗普曾多次威胁要对古巴进行军事干预,以迫使那里实现政权更迭。他也未排除重启对伊朗大规模袭击的可能性。
Trump has repeatedly threatened to intervene militarily in Cuba to force a change of regime there. And he’s left open the possibility of renewing large-scale attacks on Iran.

五角大楼目前依据一项将于12月11日到期的临时拨款决议运作,现在面临无法同时为全面重启伊朗战争和弹药补给提供资金的前景,而这两项均是五角大楼的首要任务。国会尚未接受政府提出的1.5万亿美元2027财年国防预算请求,该数字较上一财年增加44%。该请求包含3500亿美元,共和党预计将在现届国会会期结束、新的民主党控制的国会于1月接管前批准这笔资金。
The Pentagon is operating under a continuing resolution that expires Dec. 11 and now faces the prospect of not being able to fund both a full-scale resumption of the Iran war and a munitions replenishment that are top Pentagon priorities. Congress has yet to embrace the administration’s $1.5 trillion fiscal 2027 defense budget request, a 44% increase from the prior year. The request includes $350 billion that the Republicans expect to approve before the session of the current Congress expires and the new Democratic-controlled body takes over in January.
民主党掌控国会后,可能会试图增加美国对乌克兰的支持,但特朗普可能会否决任何新的援助方案。仅凭自身力量,民主党在众议院和参议院都没有达到推翻总统否决所需的三分之二多数。
With control of Congress, Democrats may try to increase US support for Ukraine, but Trump could veto any new aid package. On their own, Democrats don’t have the two-thirds majority in both the House and Senate required to overcome a presidential veto.
国会通过《2018年出口管制改革法案》和《1977年国际紧急经济权力法》等法律,已将出口管制和经济制裁的广泛权力授予行政部门。
Congress has delegated broad authority over export controls and economic sanctions to the executive branch through laws including the Export Control Reform Act of 2018 and the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977.
《出口管制改革法案》授权行政部门管制两用物项的出口和转让,并赋予商务部和总统限制威胁国家安全交易的权力。《国际紧急经济权力法》则允许总统针对外国威胁阻断交易和冻结资产。
The ECRA gives the executive branch authority to regulate the export and transfer of dual-use goods and empowers the Department of Commerce and the president to restrict transactions that threaten national security. IEEPA meanwhile allows the president to block transactions and freeze assets in response to foreign threats.

民主党主导的国会可能会加强对出口管制执行情况的监督,或质疑某些制裁项目是否存在正当紧急状态理由。但行政部门已获授的广泛权力意味着,特朗普无需国会批准每一项实体清单新增、许可限制或制裁指定。
A Democratic Congress could lead to more oversight of the enforcement of export controls or challenges as to whether there are genuine emergencies justifying certain sanctions programs. But the broad authority already delegated to the executive branch means Trump would not need Congress to approve every new entity list addition, licensing restriction or sanctions designation.
总统依据《移民与国籍法》拥有对入境美国实施限制的权力。特朗普已展示该权力的触及范围。2025年6月,他限制19个国家国民入境。9月,政府宣布限制被指控通过腐败或贩毒破坏民选政府的外国国民入境。
The president has the authority to impose restrictions on entry into the US under the Immigration and Nationality Act. Trump has already demonstrated how far that authority can reach. In June 2025, he restricted entry by nationals of 19 countries. In September, the administration announced restrictions on foreign nationals accused of undermining democratically elected governments through corruption or drug trafficking.
国会民主党人誓言将调查移民与海关执法局(ICE)和国土安全部采用的战术,这将加强对特朗普执法政策的审查。
Congressional Democrats have vowed to investigate tactics used by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and the Department of Homeland Security, which would increase scrutiny of Trump’s enforcement policies.

虽然国会拥有正式的审查角色,但行政部门对美国军售拥有实质性控制权。今年,特朗普已动用紧急权力,绕过国会审查,向中东合作伙伴推进了价值数十亿美元的拟议军售。
While Congress has a formal review role, the executive branch has substantial control over US arms sales. This year, Trump has already invoked emergency authorities to bypass congressional review of billions of dollars’ worth of proposed sales to Middle Eastern partners.
在民主党掌控下,国会可以审查个别军售案,通过立法寻求阻止转让,或试图缩小紧急豁免的范围。它可以敦促政府加快一项价值约140亿美元的对台拟议军售包的进程,该军售包已成为美中关系中的一个敏感点。特朗普迄今推迟批准该交易,称其为与北京谈判中的“一枚非常好的筹码”。然而,议员们的权力有限,无法强迫行政部门启动某项特定军售。
Under Democratic control, Congress could scrutinize individual sales, pass legislation seeking to block transfers, or try to narrow the emergency waiver. It could press the administration to accelerate a proposed arms package worth about $14 billion to Taiwan that has emerged as a flashpoint in US-China relations. Trump has so far delayed green-lighting the deal, calling it a “very good negotiating chip” in talks with Beijing. However, lawmakers have limited power to force the administration to initiate a particular sale.