加拿大元正面临自去年九月底以来最大的单周跌幅，因加拿大就业数据逊于预期，加剧了对该国经济前景的担忧。
The Canadian dollar is poised for its biggest weekly loss since late September after Canada’s weaker-than-expected employment data reinforced concerns about the outlook for the country’s economy.
本周五，加元下跌0.7%，在整体走强的美元面前跌势加剧，预计本周累计下跌1.1%。数据显示，十月份加拿大失业率升至6.7%，而就业人数减少4,700人，已连续第三个月出现岗位流失。
The loonie fell 0.7% on Friday, tumbling against a broadly stronger US dollar and putting it on track for a weekly decline of 1.1%. The currency extended losses after data showed Canada’s unemployment rate edged up to 6.7% in October, while employment fell by 4,700 for a third straight month of job losses.
与此同时，美国十月份就业数据强劲，支撑了市场对美联储下月加息的押注。
At the same time as the Canadian release, strong US October jobs data backed wagers that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next month.
“加拿大就业报告显然对加元不利，受全职和私营部门就业疲软的影响，显示劳动力市场基本面趋软，”CIBC外汇策略主管Sarah Ying表示。“随着加拿大和美国的利率预期进一步分化，我们认为从现在起风险仍倾向于美元兑加元走高”，即加元走弱。
“The Canadian jobs report was clearly negative for the loonie, with weakness in full-time and private-sector employment pointing to a softer underlying labor market,” said Sarah Ying, head of FX strategy at CIBC. “With Canadian and US rate expectations moving further apart, we think the risks remain tilted toward a higher USD/CAD from here,” meaning a weaker loonie.
周五，交易员削减了对加拿大央行十二月加息的押注，预计加息概率降至33%，低于周四约40%的水平。
Traders on Friday trimmed bets on a Bank of Canada rate hike in December, pricing in a 33% chance of an increase, down from around 40% on Thursday.
TD Securities加拿大利率策略师Emma Lawrence表示：“加拿大的就业数据可能不足以大幅削弱十二月加息的论点。”“若加拿大央行审慎行事，需要出现更多鸽派数据才能为十二月维持利率的说法提供依据。”今年以来，加拿大劳动力市场停滞不前，因美国关税继续对加拿大部分经济产生压力。尽管如此，加拿大央行上周仍在三年多来首次加息，官员们在中东冲突导致能源冲击的背景下，重点关注通胀风险。
Canada’s jobs data “is likely not enough to strongly weaken the case for a December hike,” said Emma Lawrence, Canada rates strategist at TD Securities. “With the BOC proceeding carefully, it would take a buildup of dovish data to build a narrative for a December hold.”The country’s labor market has stalled this year as US tariffs continue to weigh on parts of Canada’s economy. Still, that weakness didn’t stop the BOC from raising rates last week for the first time in more than three years as officials focused on inflation risks amid the energy shock from the Middle East conflict.
加元正从4月以来最大单月涨幅中回落，受加拿大央行转向更紧缩货币政策的支撑。本周早些时候，随着民主党在中期选举中大获全胜，美元承压，加元一度获得提振，这引发了对美国立法者可能对人工智能行业实施打压的担忧。
The loonie is coming off its largest monthly gain since April, supported by the BOC’s shift toward tighter monetary policy. It got a brief lift earlier this week as the greenback came under pressure following Democrats’ midterm sweep, which fueled concerns about a potential clampdown by US lawmakers on the artificial-intelligence industry.
麦格理策略师Thierry Wizman和Gareth Berry在周三的一份报告中写道：“我们预计，随着美国出于政治驱动的原因缩减数据中心建设，加拿大决策者将推动将其吸引到加拿大领土上。”他们表示，如果美国分裂政府导致特朗普总统领导下的贸易政策软化，加拿大也将“比其他国家获益更多”。
“We would expect that as the US dials back its data center build-out for politically-driven reasons, Canada’s policymakers will make a push to attract them to Canadian soil,” Macquarie strategists Thierry Wizman and Gareth Berry wrote in a Wednesday note. They said Canada would also “benefit more than others” if the divided US government leads to a softer trade policy under President Donald Trump.
根据商品期货交易委员会截至10月27日的数据，在本周波动之前，对冲基金已将对加元的看空押注提升至8月以来的最高水平。
Before this week’s swings, hedge funds had boosted bearish bets against the Canadian dollar to the highest since August, according to Commodity Futures Trading Commission data through Oct. 27.
加元接下来的关键考验包括加拿大央行上月加息的议息摘要以及下周的美国通胀数据，这些可能会塑造市场对两国央行12月决策的预期，丰业银行的Shaun Osborne和Eric Theoret在周五的一份报告中写道。
The loonie’s next key tests include the BOC’s summary of deliberations on last month’s hike and US inflation data next week, which could shape expectations for the two central banks’ December decisions, Scotiabank’s Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret wrote in a note Friday.