卡米尔·贝克、马特·霍尔特 华盛顿报道 —— 在密西西比州联邦参议员竞选中，民主党人斯科特·科洛姆与共和党参议员辛迪·海德-史密斯相差近 2500 票，周五仍在继续计票。以下是为何该竞选结果仍过早定论的原因。
CAMILLE BAKER, MATT HOLT WASHINGTON — Nearly 2,500 votes separate Democrat Scott Colom and Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith in the race for U.S. Senate in Mississippi, and votes are still being counted on Friday. Here’s why the race is still too early to call.
美联社在宣布选举结果时，依据其对剩余待计票数的估算，以确保落后候选人无法反超领先候选人。美联社根据过往投票率、人口变化、选民登记总数以及选举官方提供的任何早期投票数据等因素计算这一数值。对剩余待计票数的估算在选举夜及选举后数天内会持续修正。
To call a race, The Associated Press relies on its estimate of how many votes remain to be counted to ensure that the trailing candidate has no path to overtake the leading candidate. The AP calculates this value based on factors including past turnout, population changes, voter registration totals and any early turnout figures provided by elections officials. The estimate of the number of votes that remain to be counted is revised continuously on election night and in the days after.
周五上午，美联社对密西西比州参议员竞选的剩余待计票数估算约为 4.4 万张。在获取全州更新信息后，截至美国东部时间下午 4 点 45 分，该估算值现已接近 3 万张。不过，随着更多细节的收集，这一数字仍可能发生变化。
On Friday morning, the AP’s outstanding vote estimate stood at around 44,000 votes in the Mississippi Senate race. After obtaining updated information across the state, the estimate as of 4:45 p.m. ET is now closer to 30,000 votes. However, that figure could change as additional details are gathered.
密西西比州许多县 —— 包括欣兹县和兰金县等大县 —— 历来在选举日结果出炉后才报告缺席选票和临时选票的计数情况。在 2024 年大选中，选举夜所有投票站报告完毕后，仍有 12.7% 的选票在后续被计数，美联社的估算已将此纳入考量。在部分县，目前尚不清楚有多少 —— 甚至是否有 —— 缺席选票已被计数。由于对流程知之甚少，美联社的估算主要基于过往的报告模式。
Many counties in Mississippi — including larger counties like Hinds and Rankin — have historically reported their absentee ballots and provisional ballots after Election Day results have been counted. In the 2024 general election, 12.7% of votes cast were counted after all precincts reported on election night, and the AP’s estimates take this into account. In some counties, it is unclear how many — if any — absentee ballots have yet been counted. With little insight into the process, the AP’s estimates are largely based on past reporting patterns.
大多数密西西比州选民在选举日亲自前往投票站投票。由于州法律要求选民提供无法亲自投票的理由，仅有少数人通过缺席投票。
Most Mississippi voters cast their ballots in person on Election Day. Only a limited number of people vote by absentee ballot, as the state requires voters to provide an excuse for not being able to vote in person.
密西西比州还拥有全美最严格的选民身份证法律之一。如果选民无法在投票站出示带照片的身份证，选举官员会让他们填写临时选票——只有当选民在选举日后五个工作日内向官员出示身份证件时，该选票才会被计入。如果选民到达投票站时，其选民登记状态被发现处于非活跃状态，也可能不得不投临时票。当官员维护选民名册时，如果错误地认为某选民已丧失投票资格，就会出现这种情况。
Mississippi also has some of the strictest voter I.D. laws in the nation. If voters are unable to provide a photo I.D. at the polls, election officials let them complete a provisional ballot — which is only counted if the voter presents their identification to officials within five business days of Election Day. A voter may also have to cast a provisional ballot if their voter registration status is found to be inactive when they arrive at the polls. This can happen if a voter is erroneously believed to have become ineligible to vote when the officials maintain election rolls.
与其他一些州不同，密西西比州没有全州统一的投票报告系统，且很少有县在网上发布选举结果。取而代之的是，美联社记者和分析师直接与该州 82 个县中的每一个联系，以获取最新的可用选票计数信息。
Unlike in some other states, there is no central vote reporting system for the state of Mississippi, and few counties release election results online. Instead, AP journalists and analysts communicate with each of the state’s 82 counties directly for the latest available information on vote counts.
一些县在选举之夜发布初步缺席投票结果，而其他县则在选举后几天发布。在密西西比州，缺席选票必须在选举日当天或之前加盖邮戳，并在选举后五个工作日内（即 11 月 10 日前）送达，才会被计入——这意味着缺席票数量在选举后仍可能继续增加。
Some counties release preliminary absentee vote results on election night, while others release them in the days following the election. In Mississippi, absentee ballots must be postmarked by Election Day and received within five business days of the election, or Nov. 10, to be counted — meaning the number of absentee votes can continue to climb after the election.
县政府须在选举后 10 天（即 11 月 13 日）向州政府报告认证结果时，一并报告临时选票的结果。周四，密西西比州州务卿迈克尔·沃森表示，已处理约 7000 张临时选票，其中约 80% 被接受。美联社正持续努力收集更多关于未决选票数量的数据。
Counties are required to report the results of provisional ballots when they report their certified results to the state 10 days after the election on Nov. 13. On Thursday, Mississippi Secretary of State Michael Watson said that about 7,000 provisional ballots had been processed, of which about 80% had been accepted. The AP is continuously working to gather additional data on the number of outstanding ballots.
截至周五下午4点45分（美国东部时间），美联社估计欣兹县约有7%的选票尚未计数。欣兹县是民主党的大本营。2024年，当所有选举日投票站均已报告计票结果时，欣兹县约有15%的选票尚未计数。此后，美联社直到该州认证选举结果前，都未再收到该县的计票更新。在欣兹县，科洛姆目前领先海德-史密斯约4.7万票。
As of Friday at 4:45 p.m. ET, the AP estimates that roughly 7% of ballots have yet to be counted in Hinds County, a Democratic stronghold. In 2024, roughly 15% of votes had not been counted yet in Hinds County when all Election Day precincts had reported. The AP did not receive another vote update in the county until the state certified its election. In Hinds, Colom currently has a roughly 47,000-vote lead over Hyde-Smith.
在倾向共和党的兰金县，特朗普总统在2024年赢得了73%的选票，美联社目前估计该县约有2200张选票尚未计数。县官员周五告诉美联社，他们有1667张临时选票、282张已收到的邮寄选票和138张未收到的邮寄选票。目前尚不清楚这些选票是否都会被计数。2024年，当所有选举日投票站均已报告计票结果时，兰金县约有23%的选票尚未计数。五天后，美联社收到一次计票更新，计数比例达到已投选票的95%，直到该州认证选举结果前，美联社未再收到最后5%的计票数据。
In red Rankin County, where President Donald Trump won 73% of the vote in 2024, the AP currently estimates that around 2,200 votes are outstanding. County officials told the AP on Friday that they have 1,667 provisional ballots, 282 mail ballots received and 138 mail ballots outstanding. It is not clear if all of those votes will be counted. In 2024, roughly 23% of the vote had not been counted yet after all Election Day precincts had reported in Rankin County. The AP received a vote update five days later, bringing the count to 95% of ballots cast, and did not receive the final 5% until the state certified the election.
密西西比州没有自动重新计票制度，也不允许候选人申请重新计票。该州只有在法院下令的情况下才会进行重新计票。
Mississippi does not have automatic recounts or permit candidates to request a recount. Recounts in the state are held only in the event of a court order.
如果美联社能确定领先优势大到足以使重新计票或法律挑战无法改变结果，美联社可能会在面临重新计票的竞选中宣布获胜者。
The AP may declare a winner in a race that is subject to a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.