密西西比州参议员辛迪·海德-史密斯（共和党）正为其政治生存而战，民主党人斯科特·科洛姆有望在该州制造中期选举最大冷门之一——该州自1982年以来未曾选出过民主党参议员。在周二投票结束前，决策台总部（DDHQ）给海德-史密斯91%的获胜几率。但到周五下午晚些时候，科洛姆在DDHQ的统计中领先2734票，仍有数千张选票未计。
Mississippi Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) is fighting for her political life as Democrat Scott Colom threatens to pull off one of the biggest upsets of the midterms in a state that hasn’t elected a Democratic senator since 1982. Before polls closed Tuesday, Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) gave Hyde-Smith a 91 percent chance of winning her race. But by late Friday afternoon, Colom led by 2,734 votes in DDHQ’s tally, with thousands of ballots still outstanding.
科洛姆最大的得票增长部分来自海德-史密斯六年前大胜的县份。在孟菲斯郊区，他在德索托县领先约6个百分点，而海德-史密斯在2020年曾以16个百分点优势拿下该县。在墨西哥湾沿岸，现任参议员在哈里森县的领先优势已从2020年的17个百分点缩窄至最新非官方计票中的约4个百分点。科洛姆在共和党仍大幅领先的地区也获得了更多选票。
Some of Colom’s biggest gains have come in counties Hyde-Smith won handily six years ago. In the Memphis suburbs, he leads by roughly 6 points in DeSoto County, which she carried by 16 points in 2020. On the Gulf Coast, the incumbent’s lead in Harrison County has narrowed from 17 points in 2020 to about 4 points in the latest unofficial count. Colom has also picked up votes in places where Republicans still led by wide margins.
在皮尔里弗县，初步计票显示科洛姆获得约4000票，得票率24%——相比之下，2023年民主党州长候选人布兰登·普雷斯利在该县仅获2400票，得票率22%。2024年，前副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯在该县得票率为16%。科洛姆受益于有利于民主党的全国政治环境，但他也给密西西比州选民提供了一个发泄对物价上涨不满的本地靶子：他将海德-史密斯建议购物者选择更便宜蛋白质的言论，转化为“另选一位参议员”的竞选口号。
In Pearl River County, Colom drew about 4,000 votes, or 24 percent, in the preliminary count — compared with the 2,400 votes, or 22 percent, that Democratic gubernatorial nominee Brandon Presley got in 2023. Former Vice President Kamala Harris won 16 percent of the vote in 2024. Colom benefited from a national political environment that favored Democrats, but he also gave voters in Mississippi a local target for their frustration over rising prices by turning Hyde-Smith’s suggestion that shoppers choose a cheaper protein into a pitch to “pick another senator.”
组织者致力于动员黑人选民投票，初步结果显示，以黑人为主的县份投票数比2023年州长选举增加约10%。《纽约时报》估计，91%的黑人选民支持科洛姆。《纽约时报》的初步估计显示，与2024年相比，各年龄、种族、性别和受教育程度群体均出现向民主党倾斜的趋势。海德-史密斯在白人选民中仍领先49个百分点，但这一优势比两年前特朗普总统在该群体中的领先幅度窄了19个百分点。
Organizers worked to turn out Black voters, and preliminary returns show about 10 percent more votes were cast in majority-Black counties than in the 2023 governor’s race. The New York Times estimated that 91 percent of Black voters back Colom. The Times’s preliminary estimates show a shift toward Democrats across age, race, gender and education groups compared with 2024. Hyde-Smith still led among white voters by 49 points, but that was 19 points narrower than President Trump’s margin with those voters two years earlier.
“新南方多数派”（New Southern Majority）是一个由南方贫困法律中心（Southern Poverty Law Center）政治倡导部门发起的超级政治行动委员会（super PAC）。据其咨询公司“奇斯姆策略”（Chism Strategies）负责人布兰农·米勒（Brannon Miller）透露，在其他组织专注于动员黑人选民投票的本轮选举周期中，该组织看准时机，转而触达共和党选民。
New Southern Majority, a super PAC launched by the Southern Poverty Law Center’s political advocacy arm, saw an opening to reach GOP voters while other organizations focused on turning out Black voters this cycle, according to Brannon Miller, whose consulting firm, Chism Strategies, ran the effort.
他表示，该集团在该竞选中针对共和党选民的宣传投入略低于100万美元，锁定约20万名共和党选民，宣传内容几乎完全集中在批评海德-史密斯（Hyde-Smith）身上，涉及伊朗战争、高油价、关税及其对数据中心的支持等议题。米勒认为该宣传策略奏效，并以科隆（Colom）在皮尔里弗县（Pearl River）和德索托县（DeSoto）等红色县份的得票增长为证，表明一些通常支持共和党的选民在本轮周期中倒戈。
He said the group spent just under $1 million on messaging to Republican voters in the race, targeting about 200,000 Republicans with messages that focused almost entirely on criticizing Hyde-Smith over issues including the war in Iran, high gas prices, tariffs and her support for data centers. Miller suggested that messaging was effective, pointing to Colom’s gains in red counties like Pearl River and DeSoto as a sign that some voters who typically back Republicans crossed over this cycle. “There's literally no other explanation,” Miller said.
“根本没有其他解释，”米勒说，“这些地方在大选年民主党得票率不足15%，根本没有可供动员的民主党选民。”
“These are places where Democrats get less than 15 percent of the vote in a presidential year. There are not Democrats there to turn out.”
他继续说道：“所以当斯科特·科隆（Scott Colom）在其中一些县获得的选票数接近布兰登·普雷斯利（Brandon Presley）2023年得票数的两倍时，这些票必然来自白人共和党选民倒戈，投给了重建时期（Reconstruction）以来的首位黑人参议员。”德索托县是2024年大选以来向民主党倾斜幅度最大的县份。特朗普（Trump）在2024年大选中以24个百分点的优势拿下这个快速增长的孟菲斯（Memphis）郊区，但科隆目前领先约6个百分点，两年内实现了约30个百分点的摇摆。
“So when Scott Colom doubles the number of votes that Brandon Presley got in some of these counties, or close to it, that has to be coming from white Republicans flipping and voting for the first Black senator since Reconstruction,” he continued. DeSoto stands out as the county that saw the biggest swing toward Democrats from the 2024 presidential race. Trump carried the fast-growing Memphis suburbs by 24 points in 2024, but Colom is now leading by roughly 6 points, accounting for a 30-point shift over just two years.
科隆在该县获得约2.81万张选票，几乎是普雷斯利2023年在该县得票数的两倍。“我认为，很大一部分摇摆可归因于对数据中心的反对，”米勒指着德索托县一座因持续噪音问题引发当地居民强烈反弹的设施说道。
Colom drew about 28,100 votes in the county, nearly twice as many as Presley received there in 2023. “In my mind, a big part of the swing is explained by the opposition to data centers,” Miller said, pointing to a facility in DeSoto that has drawn significant backlash from locals about persistent noise issues.
德索托县民主党主席黛博拉·威廉姆斯表示，她也认为数据中心引发的反弹可能损害了海德-史密斯的支持率，但她将更多的选情逆转归功于组织者的工作，他们敲了近7万扇门，并致力于增加缺席选票。她还表示，认为选民对海德-史密斯并不热情，而科隆的“密西西比很重要”信息尤其引起了年轻选民的共鸣。她说，在选举日，她从一个选区跑到另一个选区，惊讶地看到有那么多年轻选民在投票站排队。
DeSoto County Democratic Party Chair Deborah Williams said she also thought the backlash to the data center might have hurt Hyde-Smith’s support, but she attributed more of the swing to the work organizers did, knocking on nearly 70,000 doors and working to increase absentee ballots. She also said she thinks voters weren’t excited about Hyde-Smith and that Colom’s “Mississippi Matters” message resonated especially with young voters. On Election Day, she said she went from precinct to precinct and was surprised to see just how many young voters were lining up at the polls.
她说，有些人在雨中等了两三个小时，只为争取投票机会。“密西西比州一直被视为一个深红州，但实际上它并不是深红州。它是一个由于多种不同原因，人们没有参与这一进程的州，”威廉姆斯说。“所以是的，我认为斯科特在让密西西比州重拾自豪感方面发挥了很大作用，人们也接受了这一点。”
She said some were waiting two or three hours in the rain just to get a chance to vote. “[Mississippi] had been perceived as a deep-red state, but it really wasn't a deep-red state. It was a state where people weren't engaged in this process for a number of different reasons,” Williams said. “So yes, I think Scott had a lot to do with bringing that sense of pride back to the state of Mississippi, and people did embrace that.”
密西西比投票组织执行主任阿雷基亚·本内特-斯科特表示，年轻人在该州组织活动已有多年，但重划密西西比州国会选区的推动给了他们一个特别的理由在今年现身。本内特-斯科特指出，许多学生将重新划分选区视为对黑人政治代表权的威胁，并通过在5月于杰克逊市集会以及在各大学校园组织活动来回应。“他们明白，投票是一种工具，不是唯一的工具，但这是他们在本次选举周期中可以用来反击的一种工具，”她在提到青年投票率时说。
Arekia Bennett-Scott, executive director of Mississippi Votes, said young people have been organizing in the state for years but the push to redraw Mississippi’s congressional districts gave them a particular reason to show up this year. Bennett-Scott noted that many students saw redistricting as a threat to Black political representation and responded by rallying in Jackson in May and organizing across campuses. “They understand that voting is a tool, not the only tool, but it's a tool that they can fight back with this particular election cycle,” she said, referring to youth turnout.
《纽约时报》估计，密西西比州30岁以下选民以62%对33%支持科隆——与2024年相比，这是向民主党惊人的44个百分点的摆动。但这位政治组织者强调，更高的青年参与度并非关乎任何单一候选人或政党。
The Times estimated that voters under 30 in Mississippi backed Colom, 62 percent to 33 percent — a whopping 44-point swing toward Democrats compared with 2024. But the political organizer emphasized that the higher youth engagement is not about any single candidate or party.
“年轻人正在为争取权力而奋斗，这反映了他们挺身而出的方式，”本内特-斯科特说，并补充道，“他们知道什么处于关键时刻，并在这一刻与那些为他们说正义语言的人和事站在了一起。” 这场在深红州密西西比州的参议院竞选以极其微弱的优势决出胜负，让许多政治观察家感到意外，但当地组织者指出，该州近年来变得竞争激烈得多，只是人们现在才开始关注。
“Young people are fighting towards power, and that speaks to the way that they showed up,” Bennett-Scott said, adding, “They know what's at stake, and they align themselves with what and who was speaking the language of justice for them in this moment.”The razor-thin margins in the deep-red Mississippi Senate race took many political observers by surprise, but local organizers note that the state has gotten a lot more competitive in recent years and people are only now paying attention.
“我认为，存在一种将该州定型为1960年代模样的刻板印象，这已不再符合实际，”米勒说。“这并非什么新密西西比，”他继续说道，“至少过去十年来，密西西比一直就是这样。只是这回终于具备了所有合适的条件交汇在一起，让我们得以获胜。”
“I think that there's a stereotype of the state as being what it was in the 1960s that just no longer holds,” Miller said. “It's not like this is a new Mississippi,” he continued. “This is the Mississippi that's been there for at least the past decade. This was just finally when all of the right confluence of circumstances came together to allow us to win.”