伯纳姆押注英国能够走出旧的脱欧分歧Burnham Bets That Britain Can Move Past the Old Brexit Divisions

In British politics, dividing lines have formed around Brexit for the past decade, often replacing traditional right-and-left allegiances. Now, Andy Burnham is backing himself to redraw the political map all over again.

The Prime Minister will go into two high-stakes summits with European leaders this month determined to bring the UK closer to its continental neighbors — despite the looming electoral threat from chief Brexiteer and right-wing populist Nigel Farage.

The idea is not without critics at the top of the ruling Labour Party, several of whom worry that their leader is in danger of reopening old wounds. Yet Burnham, a longtime supporter of the UK remaining in the European Union, believes there’s an economic prize in taking a more bold approach than his predecessor Keir Starmer.

Starmer, while also a Remainer, imposed strict “red lines” in his negotiations with the bloc, based on Labour’s promises ahead of the last election. These have made talks more onerous, and Burnham has suggested that, after the next election, everything is back on the table. A fresh start, the PM hopes, could give officials the confidence to look beyond technical discussions and toward the kind of big ambitions that can meaningfully boost growth.

The new strategy gets its first major outing in Dublin this coming week at a meeting of the European Political Community, a group set up in the aftermath of Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The UK finds itself competing for attention with Canada, which will also be represented at the event. Prime Minister Mark Carney was recently invited by European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen for talks to become a new “associate member” of the bloc, raising questions about how much the EU will be focused on its post-Brexit relationship with the UK.

British officials are optimistic they can pave the way to closer economic ties with Brussels before an official EU-UK summit on Nov. 20. Yet Burnham faces challenges at home and abroad: from his colleagues in the Labour party, and from European peers skeptical of the plan.

The UK and EU have been locked in talks since last year on some tricky policies including a youth mobility program, an agrifood deal and an energy emissions system. British officials remain positive but the sudden shift in tone from Burnham, who only came to power in July, has provoked mixed responses from the Europeans.

Negotiators of some EU states say privately that the official approach to negotiations has not changed despite the new rhetoric. Some are resisting attempts to include UK companies in the “Made in Europe” industrial strategy in exchange for the UK allowing European students discounted rates at British universities. They say the two policies are unrelated and the UK must sign off on lower student fees before talks can move on.

Still, the UK side wants a more upbeat tone to emerge from November’s summits with Burnham convinced that by putting Labour’s “red lines” to one side he can reach a deeper level of negotiation that ultimately gives a considerable boost to Britain’s economic growth.

The PM believes his party and the public more widely want a much closer relationship with the EU, aides say. His strategy will not just unite progressive voters, they add, but could split support for the Conservative Party and frame the right-wing anti EU movement as stuck in the past.

Many in Labour and its Cabinet are unconvinced about the short term risk of bringing the debate back into the center of British politics and fear it will be a gift to Reform leader Farage, just when he appeared to be politically stumbling.

Dozens of Labour Members of Parliament represent seats with a high proportion of people who voted to Leave the EU back in 2016, and question the wisdom of Burnham unilaterally bringing Brexit back into the public discourse.

Voters in the Prime Minister’s own constituency of Makerfield, in Greater Manchester, overwhelmingly backed Brexit at the time of the referendum and while nationwide polls show a big shift in sentiment the topic is still considered precarious for Remain-leaning politicians.

Some Labour MPs say it’s particularly risky to trigger a debate about freedom of movement – essentially uncapped migration from the EU — at a time when opposition to overseas arrivals is running high.

“While most polling points toward Brexit being seen as a failure, that doesn’t necessarily mean that the public want to see the issue front and center of British politics again,” Chris Hopkins, political research director at Savanta, told Bloomberg. “By increasing its salience, Burnham may find that polling around Brexit, and indeed his own popularity, is not as strong as it may appear.”Burnham has suggested he’ll draw up options for a new UK-EU relationship around November’s summit. They include joining the single market or the customs union, seeking a new bespoke relationship, maintaining the status quo — or even rejoining the bloc entirely.

Several cabinet ministers oppose rejoining because they think it will require a referendum which Burnham could lose, partly due to the prospect of unlimited immigration. One minister said Labour should not repeat the mistake made by David Cameron in 2016 of believing polls that said he was going to win.

MPs privately argue that putting rejoin in the next election manifesto would be a mistake given the EU would not take negotiations seriously when they could be reversed by the next government. They also fear it will get in the way of existing negotiations.

Outside of outright rejoining, other options for closer ties come with other compromises and complications. Entering the single market, for example, would bring about big economic growth benefits but would mean the UK has to accept freedom of movement.

Aides and former ministers under Starmer believed he would end up negotiating some kind of bespoke customs union plus security partnership. This would provide more modest economic gains but without the complication of uncapped immigration and some ministers believe this would be the best option to avoid political pushback.

Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform think tank, said the challenge of what comes next is complicated by the fact the EU has become a different organization to the one the UK helped form decades ago. A combination of the Covid pandemic, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the industrial threat posed by China and President Donald Trump’s global influence have changed the bloc’s fundamental outlook.

He also warned that it would be challenging for Burnham to make any meaningful attempt at reopening talks without being able to prove there was national political backing for doing so.

“The EU would not want the British to reach out [to rejoin] unless there was some sort of national consensus,” Grant said. “It would be a nightmare for the EU to have the British going in and out every five years when new governments are elected.”