韩国与朝鲜的关系一向紧张，近几周似乎正经历一段特别敌对的时期。
South Korea’s relationship with the North, always strained, seems to be going through a particularly hostile patch in recent weeks.
上个月，首尔指责朝鲜在严密设防的边境韩方一侧埋设地雷。该装置爆炸，导致三名韩国士兵受伤。平壤拒绝道歉，并坚称这是一起旨在抹黑这个孤立国家的“自导自演”事件。此后，朝鲜政权进行了多次武器试验，举办了首次军用无人机展览并由金正恩出席，将自行火炮部队调至边境，并开始准备将向韩国播放宣传广播的扩音器系统。
Last month, Seoul accused North Korea of planting a mine on the southern side of the heavily fortified border. The device exploded, injuring three South Korean soldiers. Pyongyang refused to apologize and insisted that this was a false-flag incident designed to tarnish the isolated nation. The North Korean regime has since conducted multiple weapons tests, held its first-ever exhibition of military drones attended by Kim Jong Un, brought up self-propelled artillery units to the border and started preparing loudspeaker systems that will blast propaganda into the South.
周四，朝鲜还在德国总理弗里德里希·梅尔茨计划访韩前夕，向日本海发射了约10枚短程弹道导弹。
On Thursday, North Korea also fired around 10 short-range ballistic missiles towards the Sea of Japan just before a scheduled visit to South Korea by German Chancellor Friedrich Merz.
除了与宿敌朝鲜的问题，首尔许多人对最重要的盟友美国也日益警惕。韩国政界人士担心，美国可能会以牺牲韩国安全为代价，推动与朝鲜实现外交突破，甚至让韩国暴露在平壤的核武库威胁之下。谁能对韩国的未来发声？
On top of South Korea’s issues with its archrival, many in Seoul are growing increasingly wary of their most important ally, the United States. South Korean politicians are worried that the US could push for a diplomatic breakthrough with North Korea at the cost of ignoring South Korea’s security, or even leave it exposed to Pyongyang’s nuclear arsenal. Who gets a voice on South Korea’s future?
美国总统唐纳德·特朗普曾著名地宣称，他在首个任期内与金正恩“相爱了”。最近，特朗普表示希望恢复会谈。有建议称，会晤可能于11月18日在中国城市深圳举行，特朗普预计将出席在那里举行的亚太经合组织峰会。
US President Donald Trump famously claimed he and Kim Jong Un “fell in love” during Trump’s first term. More recently, Trump has indicated he would like to resume talks . There have been suggestions that a meeting could take place on November 18 in the Chinese city of Shenzhen, where Trump is expected to attend the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit.
朝鲜方面未对华盛顿的暗示作出官方回应，但韩国国家情报院周四在首尔情报委员会的闭门会议上通报称，金正恩周六在丹东与中国政治局高层会晤时，讨论了与特朗普会面的可能性。
The North Korean side has made no official response to Washington’s hints, although South Korea’s National Intelligence Service informed a closed-door meeting of Seoul’s intelligence committee on Thursday that Kim Jong Un discussed the possibility of meeting Trump when he met with senior members of China’s politburo in Dandong on Saturday.
首尔的担忧还因美国提议与俄罗斯和中国举行三方会谈、商讨乌克兰命运，却未邀请基辅派代表出席而加剧。首尔担心，唐纳德·特朗普总统可能会在朝鲜半岛实施类似的“绕过”举动。华盛顿与首尔关系因关税、资金纠纷而动摇“现在两国政府之间存在信任问题，”金相佑（Kim Sang-woo）表示，他是倾向左翼的韩国新政治国民会议前政客，现任金大中和平财团理事。
Seoul’s fears were also fueled by the US proposing three-way talks with Russia and China on the fate of Ukraine without inviting a representative of Kyiv to attend. The worry in Seoul is that President Donald Trump may conduct a similar bypass maneuver on the Korean Peninsula. Washington-Seoul relationship shaken by tariffs, funding disputes“Right now, there is a problem of trust between the two governments,” said Kim Sang-woo, a former politician with the left-leaning South Korean Congress for New Politics and now a member of the board of the Kim Dae-jung Peace Foundation.
金相佑对德国之声表示，原本被视为稳固的安全与贸易关系，因关税、贸易限制以及华盛顿要求韩国承担更多驻韩美军费用而遭受冲击。
A security and trade relationship that was previously considered secure has been rocked by tariffs, trade restrictions and demands from Washington that the South pay more for the US troops stationed in the country, Kim told DW.
他补充说，李在明总统的外交官已失去接触这届白宫关键决策人员的渠道。
President Lee’s diplomats have lost access to key decision-making personnel in this White House, he added.
“我不认为这届美国政府在与韩国的关系上着眼长远，”金相佑说，“他们不把韩国视为其更广泛国家安全网络的一部分，而且我认为他们没有听取专家关于地区盟友重要性的意见。”
“I do not think this US administration is thinking long-term in the relationship with South Korea,” Kim said. “They do not see South Korea as a part of their wider national security network, and I do not think they are listening to experts on the importance of allies in the region.”
“我也认为特朗普渴望与金正恩会面，是因为他个人追求诺贝尔和平奖的渴望。”特朗普广为人知的争取诺贝尔奖努力迄今未果。然而，如果特朗普设法正式终止由1953年停战协定搁置至今的朝鲜战争，情况可能会改变。韩国考虑自主核威慑“最严重的担忧是美国承认平壤为核国家，这将使朝鲜的核计划合法化，并削弱说服其废除核武器的努力以及更广泛的防扩散体系，”公州国立大学国际学教授林恩贞（Lim Eun-jung）表示。
“I also think that Trump is eager to meet with Kim because of his personal quest to obtain a Nobel Peace Prize.”Trump’s widely publicized efforts to secure a Nobel have been thwarted so far. However, this might change if Trump somehow manages to formally end the Korean War that was put on hold by the 1953 armistice. South Korea eyeing its own nuclear deterrent“The most serious concern is that the US recognizes Pyongyang as a nuclear power, which would legitimize the North’s program and undermine efforts to convince it to abolish its nuclear weapons as well as the broader non-proliferation system,” said Lim Eun-jung, a professor of international studies at Kongju National University.
与此同时，她表示，人们担心特朗普可能与朝鲜达成协议，要求朝鲜废弃其远程核导弹——即那些能够打击美国境内目标的导弹——但允许其保留仍可轻易打击韩国和日本的短程武器。
In parallel, she said, there are fears that Trump could reach an agreement with North Korea that requires it to scrap its long-range nuclear missiles — those that are capable of hitting targets in the United States — but permits it to retain short-range weapons that can still easily reach South Korea and Japan.
这将引发关于美国在发生核攻击时保卫韩国承诺的质疑。这种不确定性反过来又可能让主张韩国需要发展自身核威慑力量的声音获得可信度。
That would raise questions about the US commitment to defend South Korea in case of a nuclear attack. That uncertainty, in turn, is likely to give credence to voices arguing that South Korea needs to develop its own nuclear deterrent.
林某对德国之声表示：“多年来，我们一直依赖美国在核保护伞下提供的延伸威慑保证，但这届美国政府难以预测，越来越多的人在问，为什么我们不直接独自行动。”
“For years, we have depended on US extended deterrence guarantees under the nuclear umbrella, but this US administration is unpredictable and there are more and more people asking why we don’t just go it alone,” Lim told DW.
“实际上，我们所有的邻国都拥有核武器，虽然没人希望多米诺骨牌效应开始显现，但这可能会发生。”默茨称韩国安全关乎欧洲 近期首尔与平壤的局势升级，正值韩国总统李某多次试图改善与平壤沟通之际。这种被视为示好的举动激怒了韩国的欧洲盟友，他们对朝鲜派遣士兵、提供弹药和导弹协助俄罗斯在乌克兰作战感到愤怒。
“Virtually, all our neighbors have nuclear weapons, and while no-one wants the dominoes to start falling, it could happen.”Merz says Korean security affects Europe The latest escalation between Seoul and Pyongyang comes amid repeated attempts by South Korean President Lee to improve communication with Pyongyang. The perceived outreach has irritated South Korea’s European allies, who are angry over North Korea deploying soldiers and supplying munition and missiles to help Russia in the Ukraine war.
据信，莫斯科正以资金、军事技术和安全保证作为回报，偿还平壤的支持。
Moscow is believed to be repaying Pyongyang’s support with money, military technology and security guarantees.
在访问韩国期间，德国的默茨指出：“韩国的安全关乎欧洲的安全。欧洲的安全也关乎韩国的安全。”默茨补充道：“世界很小——即使在战争中也是如此。”
During his visit to South Korea, Germany’s Merz pointed out that “Korea’s security affects Europe’s security. And Europe’s security also affects the security of Korea.”“The world is small — even in war,” Merz added.
正如首尔一样，柏林也因特朗普政府对许多盟友转而采取敌对立场，同时却寻求与俄罗斯、中国等地缘政治对手实现和解而感到迷失方向。在亚洲行期间，默茨推动建立中等强国联盟，以维护自由贸易，反对“单边主义、专制强权政治和违反国际法的行为”。“事实依然是，美国正在改变其外交政策、对外经济政策，并重新定义其利益。当他们这样做时，我们也必须这样做，”他在韩国表示。
South Korea needs allies Berlin, just like Seoul, has been disoriented by the Trump administration turning hostile on many of its allies while seeking reproachment with geopolitical rivals such as Russia and China. During his Asia tour, Merz pushed for an alliance of middle powers to protect free trade and oppose “unilateralism, autocratic power politics and violations of international law.”“The fact remains that the United States is shifting its foreign policy, its foreign economic policy, and redefining its interests. As they do so, we must do the same,” he said in South Korea.
目前尚不清楚首尔是否会回应默茨的呼吁，转而更靠近欧盟。然而眼下看来，韩国政府似乎难以与朝鲜或美国进行沟通。
It was not clear if Seoul would respond to Merz’s appeal by moving closer to the European Union. At the moment, however, it seems apparent that the South Korean government is struggling to communicate with either North Korea or the US. “It is a very difficult situation,” said Kim Sang-woo.
“这是一个非常困难的局面，”金相佑（Kim Sang-woo）说。“没有信任，也没有联系，在我看来，这非常令人担忧。”
“There is no trust and no connections and that, to me, is very worrisome.”