英伟达永续期货成为周末投资者的首个交易入口。预测市场和盘前期权交易展现出对更多市场准入的日益增长的需求。
Perpetual futures emerge as first input for Nvidia investors over the weekend. Prediction markets and premarket options trading offer glimpse of growing need for more market access.
随着英伟达首席执行官黄仁勋潜在丑闻的消息于周日开始传出，投资者面临一个简单的问题：这对股价意味着什么？一个答案可以在一个冷门但正在增长的市场角落找到：永续期货。
Perpetual futures on Nvidia started moving lower Sunday as news of the Huang scandal broke. As news of a potential scandal surrounding Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang began to trickle out on Sunday, investors faced a simple question: what could it mean for the stock? One answer could be found in an obscure but growing corner of the markets: perpetual futures.
美国东部时间周日下午3点，远在盘前股票交易开始前，一些交易者开始在英伟达永续期货上押注看跌。具体来说，永续期货率先交易，Hyperliquid的xyz合约在下午3点30分前跌至低至180.15美元，成交额达2亿美元。股票和英伟达永续期货均在隔夜跌破178美元。周一股价下跌7%。
On Sunday at 3 p.m. ET, well before pre-market equity trading had started, a number of traders began placing bearish bets on Nvidia perpetual futures. Specifically, perpetuals on Nvidia traded first, with Hyperliquid's xyz contract slipping to as low as $180.15 on $200 million of volume by 3:30 p.m. E.T. Both equity shares and perps on Nvidia fell below $178 overnight. It traded 7% lower on Monday.
周日的交易凸显了一款产品，它在传统市场休市时正日益填补市场空白。
Sunday's trading shines a light on a product that is increasingly filling a market void when traditional markets are off-line.
简单来说，永续期货是高杠杆押注，永不到期。它们可以追踪几乎任何资产类别，并全天候、每周七天交易。
In their simplest form, perpetual futures are highly leveraged bets that never expire. They can track almost any asset class and trade around the clock, seven days a week.
“永续期货填补了市场的一个重大缺口或空白，”前交易所分析师、市场结构专家Rich Repetto表示。“当本应是真空时，它们提供了准入以及价格发现。”2024年4月13日周六，伊朗向以色列发动无人机袭击时，传统市场完全关闭，提供永续期货的加密原生交易所成为石油和标普500指数实时市场情绪的唯一全球替代指标。随着冲突升级，永续期货——或称“永续合约”——成为许多寻求周末交易信号的交易者的首选。
"Perps have filled a significant gap or void in the market," said Rich Repetto, a former exchange analyst and market structure expert. "They provide access as well as price discovery to markets when there otherwise would be a vacuum." When Iran launched a drone attack against Israel on Saturday, April 13 in 2024, traditional markets were completely closed, and crypto native exchanges that offered perpetual futures were the only global proxy for real time market sentiment in oil and the S&P 500. As that conflict escalated, perpetuals — or perps as they are called — became a go to for many traders looking for inputs over the weekend.
“此时应该非常清楚，新闻不会因市场休市而停止，”Hyperliquid Strategies（PURR）首席执行官David Schamis表示，该上市财资公司投资于为去中心化交易所提供动力的HYPE代币。“投资者需要深度流动性和价格发现，是在需要的时候，而不仅仅是朝九晚五。”
"It should be very clear at this point that news doesn't stop when the market is closed," said David Schamis, CEO of Hyperliquid Strategies (PURR) the publicly-traded treasury company investing in HYPE tokens that power the de-entralized exchange. " Investors want deep liquidity and price discovery when it is needed, not just nine-to-five."
期权永续合约并非唯一在周末交易量激增的新型奇异产品。与黄仁勋潜在离职相关的预测合约也出现了活动激增。具体而言，一个Kalshi预测合约询问黄仁勋何时可能卸任英伟达首席执行官，该合约在爆炸性报道发布前几天才上市，周日的交易额超过10.5万美元。
Prediction markets, options Perps weren't the only new, exotic product to see increased volume over the weekend. Prediction contracts tied to Huang's potential exit also saw a spike in activity. Specifically, a Kalshi contract asking when Jensen Huang might leave as Nvidia CEO, which was listed just days before the bombshell reports, saw over $105,000 traded on Sunday.
而英伟达期权的盘前交易——仅在几周前开始交易——在约4万份合约中交易了1500万美元的期权权利金。SpotGamma数据显示，略超过一半的合约为看跌期权，与看跌期权相关的权利金略低于1000万美元。
And pre-market trading in options on Nvidia – which began trading just weeks ago – saw $15 million in options premium traded in Nvidia across about 40,000 contracts. A little over half the contracts were puts, with just under $10 million of premium tied to puts, SpotGamma data show.
新产品的涌现凸显了随着传统金融交易所延长交易时间，对更多信息的需求日益增长。
The emergence of new products highlight the growing need for more information as traditional financial exchanges extend market hours trading.
“市场收盘时，我们失去了实时反馈，”《期权行动》节目撰稿人Mike Khouw表示。“期货、预测市场和延长的盘后交易有助于填补这一空白。”
"When the markets close, we lose real-time feedback," said Options Action contributor, Mike Khouw. "Futures, prediction markets and expanded afterhours trading helps fill that gap."