美国10月消费者物价涨幅超过预期，这使得美联储仍将按计划在下月加息。
US consumer prices increased more than expected in October, leaving the Federal Reserve on course to raise interest rates next month.
美国劳工部劳工统计局周二公布，消费者物价指数（CPI）继9月上涨0.6%后，上月上涨0.4%。路透调查的经济学家此前预计CPI环比上涨0.3%。
The Consumer Price Index rose 0.4% last month after advancing 0.6% in September, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Tuesday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the CPI climbing 0.3% over the month.
劳工统计局没有公布同比通胀读数，因为去年联邦政府停摆导致2025年10月消费者价格数据无法收集，缺乏比较基数。9月年度消费者通胀率跃升3.7%。
The BLS did not publish year-over-year inflation readings because last year's federal government shutdown prevented the collection of consumer price data in October 2025, leaving no comparison base. Annual consumer inflation jumped 3.7% in September.
通胀率远高于美联储2%的目标。美国与以色列对伊朗的战争推高了油价，加上特朗普政府去年实施的进口关税，推高了生活成本。
Inflation is running well above the US central bank's 2% target. The US-Israeli war with Iran has boosted oil prices, combining with the import tariffs implemented by the Trump administration last year to lift the cost of living.
剔除波动较大的食品和能源分项后，CPI继9月上涨0.3%后，上月上涨0.3%。所谓的核心CPI此前预计10月上涨0.2%。
Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the CPI increased 0.3% last month after gaining 0.3% in September. The so-called core CPI was forecast to have climbed 0.2% in October.
该数据出炉前，美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒曾表示，即使数据显示上月通胀降温，美联储也应在12月提高短期借贷成本。他还说，如果通胀形势恶化，应考虑将加息幅度扩大至50个基点。
The data follows comments from Fed Governor Christopher Waller that the US central bank ought to raise short-term borrowing costs in December even if data shows inflation cooled last month. He added that it should consider an upsized half-point rate hike if the inflation picture worsens.
股市：美国股市大幅下跌，追踪纳斯达克（.IXIC）的期货下跌1.4%，追踪标普500（.SPX）的期货下跌0.8%。
STOCKS: U.S. stocks tumbled, with futures tracking the Nasdaq (.IXIC) falling 1.4% and those tracking the S&P 500 (.SPX) down 0.8%.
债券：收益率上升。对利率变动前景敏感的美国两年期国债收益率飙升13个基点，至4.68%。基准10年期国债收益率上升7.6个基点，至4.94%。外汇：美元指数上涨0.3%，至102.05。大宗商品：金价下跌2%，至每盎司4057美元。
BONDS: Yields rose. US two-year yields, which are sensitive to the outlook for interest rate moves, soared 13 basis points to 4.68% . The benchmark 10-year yield US10YT=RR> rose 7.6 basis points to 4.94%. FOREX: The U.S. dollar index rose 0.3% to 102.05. COMMODITIES: Gold fell 2% to $4,057 an ounce.
利率押注：根据芝商所“美联储观察”工具数据，结算价格与美联储政策利率挂钩的期货合约显示，市场预计央行下月加息 25 个基点的概率约为 85%，加息 50 个基点的概率为 15%。
RATE BETS: Futures that settle to the Fed's policy rate are pricing about a 85% chance that the central bank will raise the policy rate by 25 basis points next month and a 15% chance of a 50-basis-point rise, according to CME FedWatch data. "Tuesday’s CPI was stronger-than-expected, which sets the stage for another rate hike in December, as it’s clear the Federal Reserve can’t ignore the obvious uptick in the inflation data.
“周二公布的 CPI 数据强于预期，为 12 月再次加息奠定了基础，因为美联储显然无法忽视通胀数据中明显的回升迹象。选民在中期选举中表达了对通胀和物价上涨的不满，因此美联储必须兑现加息承诺，以遏制进一步的通胀。最近的就业报告显示，10 月就业增长强劲，且前几个月数据被上修，这为美联储继续加息提供了掩护。显然，在不损害劳动力市场的前提下，美联储还可以再加息一点以平抑通胀，因为劳动力市场已经站稳了脚跟。”
Voters expressed their frustration with inflation and rising prices in the midterm elections, so the Fed must follow through in raising interest rates to curb further inflation. "The most recent jobs report, showing impressive job growth in October along with upward revisions to the prior months, was the cover the Fed needs to be able to keep raising interest rates. It’s clear the Fed can hike a little bit more in an effort to calm inflation without harming the labor market, as the labor market is already on sound footing."
“核心 CPI 环比再次录得 0.3%。不仅是总体 CPI 过高，而且油价冲击已经渗透到了核心通胀中。
"Core CPI was once again at 0.3% m/m. It’s not just headline CPI that is too high, but the oil shock has seeped into core.
“芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比今年没有投票权，但当他指出人工智能需求可能是美联储需要抑制的因素时，他大概代表了许多官员的观点。沃勒理事表示，他可能支持大幅加息。美联储现在可能更担心人工智能挤占其他经济活动并推高物价。别再盯着石油了。美联储新的担忧是雇佣水管工和电工的成本。” “（数据）比我们预期的要热一点。而且因为没有同期可比数据，你无法从同比角度来看。这仅仅意味着 12 月加息在所难免。问题在于，会是 25 个基点还是 50 个基点？”
"Chicago Fed President Goolsbee isn’t a voter this year, but he probably speaks for a lot of officials when he points to AI demand as being something the Fed might need to lean against. Governor Waller said he could support a super-sized hike. The Fed is probably now more concerned about the idea of AI crowding out other activity and pushing up prices. Forget about oil. The new Fed worry is the cost of hiring plumbers and electricians." “(The data) is a bit hotter than we were looking for. And since you can’t see what it was on a year-to-year basis because there’s nothing to compare it to. This just simply means that a rate hike in December it's on its way. Question is, will it be 25 or 50 basis points?
“有意思的是，沃勒行长基本上为12月可能加息半个百分点打开了大门。这个数字表明通胀仍有点问题。因此利率可能会走高。
“Interestingly enough, Governor Waller basically opened the door for perhaps a half-point hike in December. This number suggests that inflation is still a little bit of a problem. So rates are likely to go higher.
“未来30到40天内，一旦油价下跌开始传导至整个体系，这一切都可能改变，除非油价反转回升。但特朗普明确表示，战争很可能很快结束，而且不太可能再有更多空袭。这是一个好迹象，表明如果油价维持在当前水平，我们应该会开始看到通胀下降。”
“All of this could change within the next 30 to 40 days once lower oil prices begin to work their way into the system, unless oil prices reverse and go back up. But Trump is making it clear that the war is likely to end fairly soon, and that additional airstrikes are not likely. That's a good indication that if oil prices stay at present levels, we should begin to see lower inflation.”